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Will we make the playoffs?

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  • _MrDick
    _MrDick Posts: 13,108
    Not expecting to but stranger things have happened 
  • ElliotCAFC
    ElliotCAFC Posts: 2,553
    Callumcafc said:
    18 games to play and 39 points needed to get to the magical 75 number.


    Home games against Wimbledon, Gillingham, Burton, Lincoln, Morecambe and Shrewsbury are all must wins.

    Easier said than done but do that and the task becomes 21 points needed from the 12 other games. 
    Would 75 points even be enough? We’ve got 9 teams ahead of us who would need to do worse than us over 18 games
  • AndyG
    AndyG Posts: 5,912
    Callumcafc said:
    18 games to play and 39 points needed to get to the magical 75 number.


    Home games against Wimbledon, Gillingham, Burton, Lincoln, Morecambe and Shrewsbury are all must wins.

    Easier said than done but do that and the task becomes 21 points needed from the 12 other games. 
    When put like that its certainly doable isnt it ? Win Saturday to keep the momentum going and it really wouldnt surprise me if we went on a really strong run
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,794
    edited February 2022
    ElliotCAFC said:
    Callumcafc said:
    18 games to play and 39 points needed to get to the magical 75 number.


    Home games against Wimbledon, Gillingham, Burton, Lincoln, Morecambe and Shrewsbury are all must wins.

    Easier said than done but do that and the task becomes 21 points needed from the 12 other games. 
    Would 75 points even be enough? We’ve got 9 teams ahead of us who would need to do worse than us over 18 games
    It will be an extremely unusual season if it’s not enough.

    20-21 6th: 74 points
    19-20 6th: 1.71 ppg (extrapolated becomes 78-79 points but it's easier for a group of teams to overperform during the course of a 35 game season - variance at work)
    18-19 6th: 73 points
    17-18 6th: 71 points
    16-17 6th: 73 points
    15-16 6th: 74 points
    14-15 6th: 69 points
    13-14 6th: 74 points
    12-13 6th: 74 points
    11-12 6th: 73 points
  • Gribbo
    Gribbo Posts: 8,492
    More than likely come straight back down again, putting off a serious challenge to go up and stay up, for another 2 seasons. 
  • Siv_in_Norfolk
    Siv_in_Norfolk Posts: 4,057
    I haven't cashed in my top 6 or promotion bets, put it that way 
  • jonseventyfive
    jonseventyfive Posts: 3,355
    Unlikely but never say never until you can't. 
  • fenlandaddick
    fenlandaddick Posts: 1,770
    Never say never until the fat lady sings
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,282
    If top 6 continue in same points per game then 6th may need 80 this year. Would be mental.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,794
    edited February 2022
    Athletico Charlton said:
    If top 6 continue in same points per game then 6th may need 80 this year. Would be mental.
    Last season at a similar point (just after we lost 3-0 at home to Blackpool) the team in sixth place (Doncaster) sat on 49 points from 28 games = 1.75ppg.

    That’s good enough for more than 80 points across a whole season of 46 games. But football never works out like that and Oxford ended up getting in with 74.

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  • oohaahmortimer
    oohaahmortimer Posts: 34,170


    The gap is much bigger points wise this season , to leapfrog that many teams it would require a major miracle and if we make them I’ll eat my socks and if we get promoted this season , next time Callum lives on these shores his season ticket is on me!

  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,958
    edited February 2022
    You could argue that last season, Blackpool (no games in hand) after 28 games were only 8 points behind 6th place.

    But on the other hand, their run  carried them to 80 points in 3rd place, 6 points more than needed to finish 6th.
    And I remember, they still had a late wobble.

    Taking that into account, our 14 points behind 6th needs a Blackpool style consistant run.
    It's doable, as Blackpool proved last season ..... but it's a big ask with not much lattitude for dropped points, especially against those we're competing against for 6th place.


  • msomerton
    msomerton Posts: 2,979
    it is fantasy to think this squad could go on a unbeaten run from now to end of the season which is required to get into the playoff spot. This is still a poor squad and lets just hope we can get 16pts to get to 52pts then worry about our final league position.
  • Scoham
    Scoham Posts: 37,388
    msomerton said:
    it is fantasy to think this squad could go on a unbeaten run from now to end of the season which is required to get into the playoff spot. This is still a poor squad and lets just hope we can get 16pts to get to 52pts then worry about our final league position.
    I don’t think we’ll do it but we don’t need to go unbeaten. We’ve got 18 games left, 13 wins and 5 defeats would give us 75 points which is usually enough.
  • Valleysarr
    Valleysarr Posts: 1,098
    Get on a very decent run and beat the teams around / above you who knows what can happen!
    He who dares Rodney ! 
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,958
    msomerton said:
    it is fantasy to think this squad could go on a unbeaten run from now to end of the season which is required to get into the playoff spot. This is still a poor squad and lets just hope we can get 16pts to get to 52pts then worry about our final league position.
    Unless the wheels fall off spectacularly, the last thing we need to worry about this season is relegation.
    I don't feel we need to "just hope" we can get 16 points to survive.

    We're looking up the table, not down behind us. I'll stick with Jacko's mantra, "Let's win the next game ad see where it takes us".


  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,738
    It is unlikely but as has been pointed out, enough teams above will go on bad runs. It always happens. Clearly we can't afford a poor run but 75 points is usually more than enough and whilst it may be fair to say we probably won't get 75 points, it is highly unlikely 80 points will be needed for 6th.
  • flyingkiwiDK
    flyingkiwiDK Posts: 5,723
    No chance imo 
  • WK6824Nine
    WK6824Nine Posts: 571
    Stop talking about it like its realistically possible. give it a rest its about staying up.
  • Cafc43v3r
    Cafc43v3r Posts: 21,600
    Oggy Red said:
    msomerton said:
    it is fantasy to think this squad could go on a unbeaten run from now to end of the season which is required to get into the playoff spot. This is still a poor squad and lets just hope we can get 16pts to get to 52pts then worry about our final league position.
    Unless the wheels fall off spectacularly, the last thing we need to worry about this season is relegation.
    I don't feel we need to "just hope" we can get 16 points to survive.

    We're looking up the table, not down behind us. I'll stick with Jacko's mantra, "Let's win the next game ad see where it takes us".


    I though his mantra was "we will go there and win, then there and win, then there and win" :wink:

    It's title winning form for nearly half a season, its not impossible, but very unlikely. 

    How many of those 18 games are Inniss AND Aneke or Stockley going to play?

    I want those points on the board to stay up before I relax.  If we do that quickly any pressure evaporates and you never know but I don't want those winnable home games to turn into six pointers because I still don't trust some of our players. 

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  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,649
    Interesting looking at last season's finishing table. We were pipped by Oxford on GD............because they had scored more goals than us. Goals against was exactly the same.

    So I'll say it once again............got to score more goals. Defence is important but winning games by 3 or 4 is better than winning 2-0 (or 2-1 like on Monday)
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,738
    edited February 2022
    Totally agree. If you score about 1-2 goals every game and concede 0-1 goals, you will win more than you lose but drop a fair number of points. It might be enough for the play offs if you maintain it over the whole season. If you score 2-3 goals and concede 0-1 you will win virtually all of your games. The only caveat will be when you reliably keep clean sheets. Then 1-2 goals will win you most games. 

    In our case, is if we are going to go on the sort of run we need to, we need to improve a little both offensively and defensively. Small margins can do this. I can only see one team who have scored twice as many goals as conceded this season and that is Rotherham. They are certs for promotion. 

    The questions have to be. With Innis playing every game will it add to both our goals scored and goals conceded stats from now on and will he stay fit. Will Fraser add to our goals scored from midfield stat and will Stockley and Aneke be fit enough to add to our goals scored stats. What concernes me the most is not whether they can improve our stats, I think they can, but more can they stay fit. A massive question mark there. 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,794
    edited February 2022
    Callumcafc said:
    Callumcafc said:
    SELR_addicks said:
    Why is this still getting bumped? 

    It's always going to be a no. 
    Win lose or draw, I’ve decided I will keep bumping it until it is mathematically impossible to get to 75 points.
    39 points from 18 required.
    36 points from 17 required.

    And back into the top half again.
  • North Lower Neil
    North Lower Neil Posts: 22,966
    Tough run coming up.  Yes we won today but it wasn't convincing.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,794
    edited February 2022
    North Lower Neil said:
    Tough run coming up.  Yes we won today but it wasn't convincing.
    The next seven games will be season defining. Six tough opponents both home and away capped off with a nasty away trip to Accrington.

    We have to be looking at as close to 14 points as possible from those seven, which would leave 22 needed from the last ten 10 that look easier to navigate for the most part. Hopefully our home form can carry us through this spell coming up.
  • soapy_jones
    soapy_jones Posts: 21,362
    3 points is just tickling our nuts.

    No way near consistant enough to get a play off place... THIS year.
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,958
    Cafc43v3r said:
    Oggy Red said:
    msomerton said:
    it is fantasy to think this squad could go on a unbeaten run from now to end of the season which is required to get into the playoff spot. This is still a poor squad and lets just hope we can get 16pts to get to 52pts then worry about our final league position.
    Unless the wheels fall off spectacularly, the last thing we need to worry about this season is relegation.
    I don't feel we need to "just hope" we can get 16 points to survive.

    We're looking up the table, not down behind us. I'll stick with Jacko's mantra, "Let's win the next game ad see where it takes us".


    I though his mantra was "we will go there and win, then there and win, then there and win" :wink:

    It's title winning form for nearly half a season, its not impossible, but very unlikely. 

    How many of those 18 games are Inniss AND Aneke or Stockley going to play?

    I want those points on the board to stay up before I relax.  If we do that quickly any pressure evaporates and you never know but I don't want those winnable home games to turn into six pointers because I still don't trust some of our players. 
    No one, not even me, is saying 6th place is probable ...... but all the while we have a chance (however slim) we owe it to ourselves to give it our best shot.

    Relegation? I know we're only 10 points clear with a massively superior goal difference, but really?
    Being fearful is the major cause of failure.

    Success in football is a state of mind. Believe, give it your best effort and you've got a chance.


  • letthegoodtimesroll
    letthegoodtimesroll Posts: 10,629
    Slowly but surely…it’s going to happen 
  • cazo
    cazo Posts: 1,483
    No not good enough about 8 teams better then us I’m afraid 
  • kinveachyaddick
    kinveachyaddick Posts: 3,875
    Dare to dream!

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