Summer Transfer Rumours - Deadline Day p446

mendonca said:

He scored 15 in 43 last season. 

Many were unhappy that Stockley had a similar (or better) ratio.

jacob_CAFC said:

Likely that Chuks stays with us this season if we sign Nombe?

RonnieMoore said:

Yann897 said:

CharltontillidieCOYR said:

Cawley saying wide of the mark nothing close🤦🏻‍♂️

Hoping he is wrong for a change as people usually in the know on our side and theirs are saying different.

Again RC slightly behind the news 

LargeAddick said:

PaddyP17 said:

Nombe seems close, then. Okay. Hope we aren't paying much more than we paid for May, if it's happening.

As much as I am pleased with signing Alfie May, I have a couple of reservations about Sam Nombe, and am not quite as excited. I don't think his overall goalscoring record is demonstrative of much beyond one good season and one decent season (in a league below, curtailed by injury). I have to admit though, I am NOT overly familiar with his all-round play, and I am not familiar with how Exeter have set up their side.

That said, I did the classic "watch all his goals last season" thing and got the following. Here's a goal-by-goal breakdown, and here is the reference video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-wQ4N1pliE 

[First up, the direction of this vid feels very Blair Witch Project. It was quite hard to watch more than once. Loads of unsettling camera angles.]

Goal 1: yeah, cool. Great work from Jevani Brown to slice open the defence, perfectly weighted pass. Does well to stay level/onside, finishes with aplomb. Good goal.

Goal 2: Fair enough - he's being hugged all over. Strong lad, pokes it in. I'd say that's a fairly run of the mill goal you'd expect most strikers at this level to score though if they get the ball in that position.

Goal 3: Unmarked tap-in. Defender has had a mare. Again, pretty bog standard.

Goal 4: Great header. Alfie May ain't scoring those.

Goal 5: Defensive error; Brown plays him through; slides it under the keeper from a tight angle. Not sure that sort of shot always goes in, but hey, good finish.

Goal 6: Defence and keeper hand it to him on a plate. He has a bit of a turn of foot but I don't actually think he is THAT quick in this particular clip. The mix-up is what gifts him the goal here.

Goal 7: Penalty against us

Goal 8: Winger makes that goal in my humble opinion. Good that he finishes it but the ball is placed perfectly onto his foot and even while he's holding off the man, it'd be a far worse miss than good goal. Again, strikers at this level should score those.

Goal 9: Defensive error and good work from Jay Stansfield who plays a really good weighted ball. I'd say he has a turn of foot - but milk turns quicker than that centre back. Okay finish over the keeper. Maybe not every L1 striker gets to that ball to be fair.

Goal 10: He's left unmarked from the initial cross which is poor. Ball fumbles its way toward him and he has a couple of bites at the cherry. Dustbin. Another day and the defenders successfully block that.

Goal 11: Nah that's class.

Goal 12: Route one, absolute gift central.

Goal 13: Shot blocked, keeper out of position, slots it into a cavernous gap between two defenders. Every centre back should be scoring opportunities like that!

Goal 14: Again, a gift. Beats a defender on pace and slides it into an open goal.

Goal 15: Good finish. Not too many score those.

Goal 16: Couldn't ask for an easier goal after some pinball.

Goal 17: Penalty.

-------------------------

Positives:

- Knack of being in the right place at the right time. Tends to just "stand there" in the box and tracks the ball, only moving when close in range. Having not seen his non-goals, this feels like it is extremely effective, but I wonder if we'd get frustrated at him not moving onto crosses sometimes, or anticipating ball movement.

- Turn of foot that, in this league, does just about enough. I don't think he is rapid but he's obviously got a decent enough first 15 yards.

- Couple of lovely finishes in there. 

- I found another video from 2019/20 which has pleased me lots. He clearly works hard. Look at the tracking back here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-wJn0kxz84 

Negatives:

- Seems quite right-footed.

- He feels like a "reactive" rather than proactive player. Latches on to mistakes, waits for the ball to be in an opportune place in the box - not quite sure he always goes fully after the ball in attacking situations. But I could be wrong.

- A lot of these goals have come from high expectation scenarios (two penalties, at least three if not four tantamount to "open" goals with keepers nowhere). I think this is an indicator more of luck that he gets into these situations, more than manufacturing. I would expect some regression in terms of chance quality - how many times are you gonna latch onto terrible back passes? - but hey, he's on the right trajectory and has improved in each of his last two seasons.

- In the second highlights video (the MK Dons one) he ain't really scoring loads! But hey that seems to have come since.

------------------------

So - like, if he signs, welcome. Seems to want to prove himself, seems like a good lad, seems like he works hard. And hard work is something I think is going to be very important for any Dean Holden side.

I'm not excited but neither am I greatly underwhelmed. Hopefully I am pleasantly surprised!

Of course we'd be paying more than we did for May, he's younger with sell on potential. He's a very good player. I'm surprised you didn't notice him when playing against us. An analysis based on video clips tells you nothing. Of those available this summer Nombe would have been top of the list but I thought he'd be unobtainable. If we can sign him it will be a cracking bit of business.

PaddyP17 said:

LargeAddick said:

PaddyP17 said:

Nombe seems close, then. Okay. Hope we aren't paying much more than we paid for May, if it's happening.

As much as I am pleased with signing Alfie May, I have a couple of reservations about Sam Nombe, and am not quite as excited. I don't think his overall goalscoring record is demonstrative of much beyond one good season and one decent season (in a league below, curtailed by injury). I have to admit though, I am NOT overly familiar with his all-round play, and I am not familiar with how Exeter have set up their side.

That said, I did the classic "watch all his goals last season" thing and got the following. Here's a goal-by-goal breakdown, and here is the reference video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-wQ4N1pliE 

[First up, the direction of this vid feels very Blair Witch Project. It was quite hard to watch more than once. Loads of unsettling camera angles.]

Goal 1: yeah, cool. Great work from Jevani Brown to slice open the defence, perfectly weighted pass. Does well to stay level/onside, finishes with aplomb. Good goal.

Goal 2: Fair enough - he's being hugged all over. Strong lad, pokes it in. I'd say that's a fairly run of the mill goal you'd expect most strikers at this level to score though if they get the ball in that position.

Goal 3: Unmarked tap-in. Defender has had a mare. Again, pretty bog standard.

Goal 4: Great header. Alfie May ain't scoring those.

Goal 5: Defensive error; Brown plays him through; slides it under the keeper from a tight angle. Not sure that sort of shot always goes in, but hey, good finish.

Goal 6: Defence and keeper hand it to him on a plate. He has a bit of a turn of foot but I don't actually think he is THAT quick in this particular clip. The mix-up is what gifts him the goal here.

Goal 7: Penalty against us

Goal 8: Winger makes that goal in my humble opinion. Good that he finishes it but the ball is placed perfectly onto his foot and even while he's holding off the man, it'd be a far worse miss than good goal. Again, strikers at this level should score those.

Goal 9: Defensive error and good work from Jay Stansfield who plays a really good weighted ball. I'd say he has a turn of foot - but milk turns quicker than that centre back. Okay finish over the keeper. Maybe not every L1 striker gets to that ball to be fair.

Goal 10: He's left unmarked from the initial cross which is poor. Ball fumbles its way toward him and he has a couple of bites at the cherry. Dustbin. Another day and the defenders successfully block that.

Goal 11: Nah that's class.

Goal 12: Route one, absolute gift central.

Goal 13: Shot blocked, keeper out of position, slots it into a cavernous gap between two defenders. Every centre back should be scoring opportunities like that!

Goal 14: Again, a gift. Beats a defender on pace and slides it into an open goal.

Goal 15: Good finish. Not too many score those.

Goal 16: Couldn't ask for an easier goal after some pinball.

Goal 17: Penalty.

-------------------------

Positives:

- Knack of being in the right place at the right time. Tends to just "stand there" in the box and tracks the ball, only moving when close in range. Having not seen his non-goals, this feels like it is extremely effective, but I wonder if we'd get frustrated at him not moving onto crosses sometimes, or anticipating ball movement.

- Turn of foot that, in this league, does just about enough. I don't think he is rapid but he's obviously got a decent enough first 15 yards.

- Couple of lovely finishes in there. 

- I found another video from 2019/20 which has pleased me lots. He clearly works hard. Look at the tracking back here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-wJn0kxz84 

Negatives:

- Seems quite right-footed.

- He feels like a "reactive" rather than proactive player. Latches on to mistakes, waits for the ball to be in an opportune place in the box - not quite sure he always goes fully after the ball in attacking situations. But I could be wrong.

- A lot of these goals have come from high expectation scenarios (two penalties, at least three if not four tantamount to "open" goals with keepers nowhere). I think this is an indicator more of luck that he gets into these situations, more than manufacturing. I would expect some regression in terms of chance quality - how many times are you gonna latch onto terrible back passes? - but hey, he's on the right trajectory and has improved in each of his last two seasons.

- In the second highlights video (the MK Dons one) he ain't really scoring loads! But hey that seems to have come since.

------------------------

So - like, if he signs, welcome. Seems to want to prove himself, seems like a good lad, seems like he works hard. And hard work is something I think is going to be very important for any Dean Holden side.

I'm not excited but neither am I greatly underwhelmed. Hopefully I am pleasantly surprised!

Of course we'd be paying more than we did for May, he's younger with sell on potential. He's a very good player. I'm surprised you didn't notice him when playing against us. An analysis based on video clips tells you nothing. Of those available this summer Nombe would have been top of the list but I thought he'd be unobtainable. If we can sign him it will be a cracking bit of business.

The operative there for me is the word "much" - like, obviously I'm okay with us paying a bit of a fee. Evidently he's well regarded: equally, noticing someone playing against us tells us little about a player (Jaiyesimi for instance), and while a video clip analysis is very condensed and in no way captures everything, I know this which is why I've qualified what I've said above.

Like I said, I have a different opinion - if I'm proven wrong then I'll be delighted.

letthegoodtimesroll said:

jacob_CAFC said:

Likely that Chuks stays with us this season if we sign Nombe?

With the midfield we now seem to have Chuks would thrive and not get injured so often having to do their work for them. If he doesn’t have to be substituted 5 minutes after coming on he is probably still one of the best super-subs going

Cafc43v3r said:

PaddyP17 said:

LargeAddick said:

PaddyP17 said:

Nombe seems close, then. Okay. Hope we aren't paying much more than we paid for May, if it's happening.

As much as I am pleased with signing Alfie May, I have a couple of reservations about Sam Nombe, and am not quite as excited. I don't think his overall goalscoring record is demonstrative of much beyond one good season and one decent season (in a league below, curtailed by injury). I have to admit though, I am NOT overly familiar with his all-round play, and I am not familiar with how Exeter have set up their side.

That said, I did the classic "watch all his goals last season" thing and got the following. Here's a goal-by-goal breakdown, and here is the reference video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-wQ4N1pliE 

[First up, the direction of this vid feels very Blair Witch Project. It was quite hard to watch more than once. Loads of unsettling camera angles.]

Goal 1: yeah, cool. Great work from Jevani Brown to slice open the defence, perfectly weighted pass. Does well to stay level/onside, finishes with aplomb. Good goal.

Goal 2: Fair enough - he's being hugged all over. Strong lad, pokes it in. I'd say that's a fairly run of the mill goal you'd expect most strikers at this level to score though if they get the ball in that position.

Goal 3: Unmarked tap-in. Defender has had a mare. Again, pretty bog standard.

Goal 4: Great header. Alfie May ain't scoring those.

Goal 5: Defensive error; Brown plays him through; slides it under the keeper from a tight angle. Not sure that sort of shot always goes in, but hey, good finish.

Goal 6: Defence and keeper hand it to him on a plate. He has a bit of a turn of foot but I don't actually think he is THAT quick in this particular clip. The mix-up is what gifts him the goal here.

Goal 7: Penalty against us

Goal 8: Winger makes that goal in my humble opinion. Good that he finishes it but the ball is placed perfectly onto his foot and even while he's holding off the man, it'd be a far worse miss than good goal. Again, strikers at this level should score those.

Goal 9: Defensive error and good work from Jay Stansfield who plays a really good weighted ball. I'd say he has a turn of foot - but milk turns quicker than that centre back. Okay finish over the keeper. Maybe not every L1 striker gets to that ball to be fair.

Goal 10: He's left unmarked from the initial cross which is poor. Ball fumbles its way toward him and he has a couple of bites at the cherry. Dustbin. Another day and the defenders successfully block that.

Goal 11: Nah that's class.

Goal 12: Route one, absolute gift central.

Goal 13: Shot blocked, keeper out of position, slots it into a cavernous gap between two defenders. Every centre back should be scoring opportunities like that!

Goal 14: Again, a gift. Beats a defender on pace and slides it into an open goal.

Goal 15: Good finish. Not too many score those.

Goal 16: Couldn't ask for an easier goal after some pinball.

Goal 17: Penalty.

-------------------------

Positives:

- Knack of being in the right place at the right time. Tends to just "stand there" in the box and tracks the ball, only moving when close in range. Having not seen his non-goals, this feels like it is extremely effective, but I wonder if we'd get frustrated at him not moving onto crosses sometimes, or anticipating ball movement.

- Turn of foot that, in this league, does just about enough. I don't think he is rapid but he's obviously got a decent enough first 15 yards.

- Couple of lovely finishes in there. 

- I found another video from 2019/20 which has pleased me lots. He clearly works hard. Look at the tracking back here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-wJn0kxz84 

Negatives:

- Seems quite right-footed.

- He feels like a "reactive" rather than proactive player. Latches on to mistakes, waits for the ball to be in an opportune place in the box - not quite sure he always goes fully after the ball in attacking situations. But I could be wrong.

- A lot of these goals have come from high expectation scenarios (two penalties, at least three if not four tantamount to "open" goals with keepers nowhere). I think this is an indicator more of luck that he gets into these situations, more than manufacturing. I would expect some regression in terms of chance quality - how many times are you gonna latch onto terrible back passes? - but hey, he's on the right trajectory and has improved in each of his last two seasons.

- In the second highlights video (the MK Dons one) he ain't really scoring loads! But hey that seems to have come since.

------------------------

So - like, if he signs, welcome. Seems to want to prove himself, seems like a good lad, seems like he works hard. And hard work is something I think is going to be very important for any Dean Holden side.

I'm not excited but neither am I greatly underwhelmed. Hopefully I am pleasantly surprised!

Of course we'd be paying more than we did for May, he's younger with sell on potential. He's a very good player. I'm surprised you didn't notice him when playing against us. An analysis based on video clips tells you nothing. Of those available this summer Nombe would have been top of the list but I thought he'd be unobtainable. If we can sign him it will be a cracking bit of business.

The operative there for me is the word "much" - like, obviously I'm okay with us paying a bit of a fee. Evidently he's well regarded: equally, noticing someone playing against us tells us little about a player (Jaiyesimi for instance), and while a video clip analysis is very condensed and in no way captures everything, I know this which is why I've qualified what I've said above.

Like I said, I have a different opinion - if I'm proven wrong then I'll be delighted.

Why does us paying a fee, specifically the size of the fee, matter?  If the manager wants a player and the owner is prepared to stump it up, the club doesn't have any money, what's the problem if it's 300k, 500k, 1 million or more?

PaddyP17 said:

Cafc43v3r said:

PaddyP17 said:

LargeAddick said:

PaddyP17 said:

Nombe seems close, then. Okay. Hope we aren't paying much more than we paid for May, if it's happening.

As much as I am pleased with signing Alfie May, I have a couple of reservations about Sam Nombe, and am not quite as excited. I don't think his overall goalscoring record is demonstrative of much beyond one good season and one decent season (in a league below, curtailed by injury). I have to admit though, I am NOT overly familiar with his all-round play, and I am not familiar with how Exeter have set up their side.

That said, I did the classic "watch all his goals last season" thing and got the following. Here's a goal-by-goal breakdown, and here is the reference video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-wQ4N1pliE 

[First up, the direction of this vid feels very Blair Witch Project. It was quite hard to watch more than once. Loads of unsettling camera angles.]

Goal 1: yeah, cool. Great work from Jevani Brown to slice open the defence, perfectly weighted pass. Does well to stay level/onside, finishes with aplomb. Good goal.

Goal 2: Fair enough - he's being hugged all over. Strong lad, pokes it in. I'd say that's a fairly run of the mill goal you'd expect most strikers at this level to score though if they get the ball in that position.

Goal 3: Unmarked tap-in. Defender has had a mare. Again, pretty bog standard.

Goal 4: Great header. Alfie May ain't scoring those.

Goal 5: Defensive error; Brown plays him through; slides it under the keeper from a tight angle. Not sure that sort of shot always goes in, but hey, good finish.

Goal 6: Defence and keeper hand it to him on a plate. He has a bit of a turn of foot but I don't actually think he is THAT quick in this particular clip. The mix-up is what gifts him the goal here.

Goal 7: Penalty against us

Goal 8: Winger makes that goal in my humble opinion. Good that he finishes it but the ball is placed perfectly onto his foot and even while he's holding off the man, it'd be a far worse miss than good goal. Again, strikers at this level should score those.

Goal 9: Defensive error and good work from Jay Stansfield who plays a really good weighted ball. I'd say he has a turn of foot - but milk turns quicker than that centre back. Okay finish over the keeper. Maybe not every L1 striker gets to that ball to be fair.

Goal 10: He's left unmarked from the initial cross which is poor. Ball fumbles its way toward him and he has a couple of bites at the cherry. Dustbin. Another day and the defenders successfully block that.

Goal 11: Nah that's class.

Goal 12: Route one, absolute gift central.

Goal 13: Shot blocked, keeper out of position, slots it into a cavernous gap between two defenders. Every centre back should be scoring opportunities like that!

Goal 14: Again, a gift. Beats a defender on pace and slides it into an open goal.

Goal 15: Good finish. Not too many score those.

Goal 16: Couldn't ask for an easier goal after some pinball.

Goal 17: Penalty.

-------------------------

Positives:

- Knack of being in the right place at the right time. Tends to just "stand there" in the box and tracks the ball, only moving when close in range. Having not seen his non-goals, this feels like it is extremely effective, but I wonder if we'd get frustrated at him not moving onto crosses sometimes, or anticipating ball movement.

- Turn of foot that, in this league, does just about enough. I don't think he is rapid but he's obviously got a decent enough first 15 yards.

- Couple of lovely finishes in there. 

- I found another video from 2019/20 which has pleased me lots. He clearly works hard. Look at the tracking back here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-wJn0kxz84 

Negatives:

- Seems quite right-footed.

- He feels like a "reactive" rather than proactive player. Latches on to mistakes, waits for the ball to be in an opportune place in the box - not quite sure he always goes fully after the ball in attacking situations. But I could be wrong.

- A lot of these goals have come from high expectation scenarios (two penalties, at least three if not four tantamount to "open" goals with keepers nowhere). I think this is an indicator more of luck that he gets into these situations, more than manufacturing. I would expect some regression in terms of chance quality - how many times are you gonna latch onto terrible back passes? - but hey, he's on the right trajectory and has improved in each of his last two seasons.

- In the second highlights video (the MK Dons one) he ain't really scoring loads! But hey that seems to have come since.

------------------------

So - like, if he signs, welcome. Seems to want to prove himself, seems like a good lad, seems like he works hard. And hard work is something I think is going to be very important for any Dean Holden side.

I'm not excited but neither am I greatly underwhelmed. Hopefully I am pleasantly surprised!

Of course we'd be paying more than we did for May, he's younger with sell on potential. He's a very good player. I'm surprised you didn't notice him when playing against us. An analysis based on video clips tells you nothing. Of those available this summer Nombe would have been top of the list but I thought he'd be unobtainable. If we can sign him it will be a cracking bit of business.

The operative there for me is the word "much" - like, obviously I'm okay with us paying a bit of a fee. Evidently he's well regarded: equally, noticing someone playing against us tells us little about a player (Jaiyesimi for instance), and while a video clip analysis is very condensed and in no way captures everything, I know this which is why I've qualified what I've said above.

Like I said, I have a different opinion - if I'm proven wrong then I'll be delighted.

Why does us paying a fee, specifically the size of the fee, matter?  If the manager wants a player and the owner is prepared to stump it up, the club doesn't have any money, what's the problem if it's 300k, 500k, 1 million or more?

Well, to me it is indicative of good decision making if you can drive a bargain. People still take the piss at £4m or whatever it was for Will Grigg; we've had flops that have cost before, and I don't want us to have many more. 

seth plum said:

I heard Stuart Pearce on the wireless saying (about the premier league specifically) that in general one goal equates to one point over a season.
If your team scores 70 goals you’ll end up with around 70 points.
So with the prospect of Nombe and May, and a cautionary assumption that their scoring return might dip by 10%, that would be 35 goals between them less 10% which could mean they get us 32 points next season.
By my very crude and simplistic calculation even with Nombe and May playing we need another 60 goals from elsewhere in the team (according to the Stuart Pearce notion anyway) for automatic promotion.