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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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thanks for the explanation ( as I didn't see the game just the stats)follett said:
Peterborough took the risk and kept 2/3 players up top most of the time which enabled them to counter us and they'd end up 3 on 3 with our defence, resulting in some great chances. It meant they had less back too, which helped us have so many shots but we just didn't capitalise. I don't really see any other team implementing a similar style against us and if they do then Jones is a good enough manager to have learnt a lesson from Peterborough and deal with it better.PrincessFiona said:The significant loss to Peterborough worries me, less so when I looked at the stats and the number of shots we had etc. And less worried after the dominant win on Saturday. Tuesday wasn't an impressive performance but getting a win was - winning ugly3 -
If we finish third, which involves not only overhauling Wycombe but also keeping ahead of Stockport, we will have momentum!NabySarr said:
The team coming 6th wins the play offs least often I think, but that doesn’t mean “the team with momentum” doesn’t win the play offs most often. We were the team with momentum last time but also finished 3rd. If Blackpool get up to 6th I wouldn’t want to play them, but also if we keep our form up we will be the team everyone wants to avoidse9addick said:Danepak said:
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.ElfsborgAddick said:se9addick said:
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.Chris_from_Sidcup said:Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams.
I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th.
If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
Isn’t the “team coming sixth will have the momentum with them” trope a bit of a myth? I thought, statistically, the team coming in sixth gets promoted the least often.palarsehater said:
This is my thoughts exactly a team storming into 6th will be on a serious run.Danepak said:
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.ElfsborgAddick said:se9addick said:
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.Chris_from_Sidcup said:Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams.
I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th.
If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
although we win every remaining game I think 2nd is on.1 -
No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.11
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They looked very good and physical in the game at their place, but the ref was letting a lot of things go (for both teams). I don't remember feeling like they outplayed us, a draw was fair. If we get a stricter ref then it could be a very different game.RC_CAFC said:No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.2 -
Thats brilliant. I like the way that towards the end everything is pretty static. Must be because the top teams have built a bit of a points gap so a defeat doesn't affect their position that much.1
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I think it would be a cagey and close 2 legs. We had the better of them at the valley but they were better at theirs. I actually think we’d beat them at Wembley as the bigger pitch would suit us getting Small and TC at them, which we didn’t do in the away game on a smaller pitchRC_CAFC said:No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.1 -
I'd definitely take Stockport at Wembley, realistically how many fans would they bring to a playoff final?NabySarr said:
I think it would be a cagey and close 2 legs. We had the better of them at the valley but they were better at theirs. I actually think we’d beat them at Wembley as the bigger pitch would suit us getting Small and TC at them, which we didn’t do in the away game on a smaller pitchRC_CAFC said:No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.
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Same as Wycombe actually, they wouldn't sell anything like Sunderland did, whereas I'd expect Huddersfield and Bolton to bring big numbers if they got to a playoff final2
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Agree re Stockport, It was tough and bruising. Like someone had forgotten the lubricant and we don't want to go through that again.10
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Stockport have sustained a potentially season ending injury to a key playerswords_alive said:Agree re Stockport, It was tough and bruising. Like someone had forgotten the lubricant and we don't want to go through that again.0 -
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At their place we struggled, but it balanced itself out as we battered them at the Valley and only got a point to show for it.
They're all going to be tough games, fingers crossed we won't have to worry about it.4 -
We nearly comfortably won the away leg. If that header had gone in, we'd have been 3-0 up and I don't think we'd have conceded. That would have been comfortable.killerandflash said:
I'm not sure it makes that much difference whether we finish 3rd or 4th. The team finishing 6th could be a form team surging into the playoffs.cantersaddick said:I think Wrexham are set for 2nd. We should be giving everything to overhaul Wycombe and get 3rd. Secure the "easier" opposition and home 2nd leg.
And even the home second leg isn't that important. Yes it massively helped the penalty shootout against Doncaster, but we actually lost the match on the night, whereas we comfortably won the 1st away leg.0 -
And your uncle might be like an error off the Topic production line - nut free.O-Randy-Hunt said:
Not in this day and age mate. Your auntie can have a pair of bollocks and still be your auntie.ShootersHillGuru said:
Anything is possible of course but if my auntie had bollocks she’d be my uncle. Too many ifs and buts in that scenario for me but I live in hope.Callumcafc said:Here’s a scenario over the next four or five games:
- Charlton beat Lincoln and Northampton at home, drawing with either Mansfield or Cambridge away. +10pts
- Wrexham win two, draw one and lose one of their next four. +7pts
- Wycombe win two, draw one and lose two of their next five. +7pts
Heading into Easter Monday the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Wycombe 81pts
- Charlton 79pts
Wrexham lose at Blackpool & Charlton win at Wycombe & suddenly the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Charlton 82pts
- Wycombe 81pts
The following weekend, we’d go to Wrexham knowing a win means automatic promotion is in our own hands the following weekend against Burton.0 -
Bolton got to last years final and took just over 30k, so i think they'd potentially see a slight drop off from that going back there so soon.sam3110 said:Same as Wycombe actually, they wouldn't sell anything like Sunderland did, whereas I'd expect Huddersfield and Bolton to bring big numbers if they got to a playoff final
Huddersfield would take a lot and so would Reading if the EFL allow them to play.
Wycombe, Stockport, Blackpool etc i don't think would take more than 25k.0 -
If we win every match until the play-offs, we will be the form team, so who would want to play us? Thank back to 97/98, we were in the form of our lives going in to those two Ipswich games. Good as Ipswich may have been, they couldn't have fancied playing us.se9addick said:
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.Chris_from_Sidcup said:Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams.
I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th.
If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
Couldn't resist another look at the Wembley game, I still get a buzz when Rufus scores his first Charlton goal.0 -
Yes, there is. A slim chance we get 2nd.AndyG said:
I think that’s generous tbh not a chance we don’t make playoffs nowRaplhMilne said:We are 1/100 odds on with bookies to be in playoffs…….0 -
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I wouldn’t fancy that Wycombe run in - could potentially lose 6 of those 7 as these are against promotion rivals..Athletico Charlton said:the runners and riders....
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go
Burton
Wigan
Bristol Rovers
Blackpool
Charlton
Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go
Reading
Huddersfield
Stevenage
Bolton
Charlton
Orient
Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go
Lincoln
Cambridge
Northampton
Wycombe
Wrexham
Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go
Exeter
Rotherham
Peterborough
Huddersfield
Lincoln
Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go
Rovers
Rotherham
Barnsley
Wycombe
Lincoln
Peterborough
Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Northampton
Lincoln
Mansfield
Rovers
Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go
Mansfield
Wycombe
Burton
Cambridge
Stockport
Exeter
Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go
Rotherham
Stevenage
Wrexham
Wigan
Birmingham
Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go
Wigan
Mansfield
Crawley
Barnsley
Cambridge
Wycombe
Huddersfield
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Been doing a bit of a look back as there has been talk and discussion about the team finishing 3rd, team finishing 6th, team having most momentum - who goes up via the playoffs. Well, the last 6 games momentum look pretty crucial. Points gained in brackets:
2018/19:
3rd Charlton (15)
4th Portsmouth (11)
5th Sunderland (5)
6th Doncaster (10)
Promoted: Charlton
2019/20: Ignored due to season ending early because of Covid. Playoffs did take place but hard to say momentum was a factor when they were played.
Promoted: Wycombe, who "finished" 3rd.
2020/21:
3rd Blackpool (12)
4th Sunderland (6)
5th Lincoln City (8)
6th Oxford (15)
Promoted: Blackpool
2021/22:
3rd MK Dons (10)
4th Sheff Wed (13)
5th Sunderland (14)
6th Wycombe (14)
Promoted: Sunderland
2022/23:
3rd Sheff Wed (15)
4th Barnsley (8)
5th Bolton (13)
6th Peterborough (10)
Promoted: Sheff Wed
2023/24:
3rd Bolton (12)
4th Peterborough (10)
5th Oxford (13)
6th Barnsley (2)
Promoted: Oxford
So in 4 of the past 5 fully completed seasons the team with the most points in the last 6 games has been promoted. Blackpool are the only exception in 2020/21, and they were second in the form table.14 -
I think Wrexham are outperforming their squad.4
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digressing a wee bit .. there is nearly always a 'bolter' from the back of the pack into the play offs, Blackpool will be this year's I reckon
Yes, we will be in the playoffs and still have a very outside chance of 2nd place
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Not sure if it’s public knowledge or not yet but I learnt a couple of days ago that a very key player for Stockport is out for the season with a torn hamstring1
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Looking down not up after today - we won't catch Wrexham.
Very confident we'll make the playoffs though, which I'd have taken a few months ago!6 -
Yeah for once now, even I'll admit that it looks pretty impossible to catch 2nd... Feels like even the EFL want Wrexham to go up, which I know is a load of crap
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Here’s a scenario over the next two or three games:Callumcafc said:
Here's a scenario over the next three or four games:Callumcafc said:Here’s a scenario over the next four or five games:
- Charlton beat Lincoln and Northampton at home, drawing with either Mansfield or Cambridge away. +10pts
- Wrexham win two, draw one and lose one of their next four. +7pts
- Wycombe win two, draw one and lose two of their next five. +7pts
Heading into Easter Monday the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Wycombe 81pts
- Charlton 79pts
Wrexham lose at Blackpool & Charlton win at Wycombe & suddenly the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Charlton 82pts
- Wycombe 81pts
The following weekend, we’d go to Wrexham knowing a win means automatic promotion is in our own hands the next weekend against Burton.
- Charlton get 7 points from Lincoln (H), Northampton (H), Cambridge (A)
- Wrexham get 6 points from Burton (H), Bristol Rovers (H), Wigan (A)
- Wycombe get 6 points from Reading (A), Huddersfield (A), Stevenage (H), Bolton (A)
And the rest as is.
- Charlton beat Cambridge and Northampton
- Wrexham lose to one of Bristol Rovers or Wigan
- Wycombe lose to one of Huddersfield, Stevenage or Bolton
- Stockport lose or draw against Rotherham or Peterborough
…it’s looking dicey :-)2 -
Play-off place is ours to throw away but a defeat at Cambridge will put a bit of pressure on vs Northampton if Reading win next week1
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I would be in no rush to bring our key players back in now until the playoffs. We have enough to get the points needed without them. But we will need them once there so protect them0
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Let's see where we are once everyone plays there game in hand this Tuesday. 2nd is a step too far in my opinion but need to ensure a 3rd or 4th place finish for home advantage second leg. We throw it away completely from here and we only have ourselves to blame. From where we were in mid December I'll happily take a play off place thank you very much.11
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Just hope we avoid Stockport in the playoff semis.9
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Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.4
