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The mathematics of relegation
Comments
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Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
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It's a familiar concept to me because I watch baseball and it's used as an official statistic by MLB towards the end of the season when teams are trying to qualify for the playoffs. Since they don't have draws in their sport, it's an easier thing to calculate, it's just the combined total of wins for you and losses for your nearest rival than will result in qualification being confirmed.0
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Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game0 -
So.. what are ya saying?Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.2 -
No, he says For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game1 -
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game1 -
Do we want Pompey to beat Oxford on Monday in that case?Swindon_Addick said:
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game0 -
What really would help if Charlton can beat Watford 😀se9addick said:
Do we want Pompey to beat Oxford on Monday in that case?Swindon_Addick said:
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game15 -
Swindon_Addick said:
Although it doesn't take into account games teams play against each other, I don't think that makes a difference because Oxford don't play Leicester. So both can in theory still reach 58. Both of them would have to beat Portsmouth to do that, so after Monday if Oxford beat Pompey then it might be time to look at whether the Portsmouth-Leicester game reduces the target a bit.PrincessFiona said:
Thanks for this Rudders. May I ask if it does or can take into account any of the teams playing one another? i.e either one of them drops 3 points or they both drop 2Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.
I saw a comment from back in March about Leicester appealling their points deduction. When is the latest the outcome of that could happen? Hopefully not after the final game - it would be unfair if say a team had to draw their last game to stay up so played it safe, only to find out they needed 3 points after all. In fact it could affect how teams play in more than just the last game
This is spot on. Thank you, my Child.
With regard to Portsmouth v Oxford, at the moment a Portsmouth win is preferred. However, it doesn't affect the R number immediately as both Oxford and Leicester are currently the 'critical teams' (because they have identical records when Goal Difference is ignored). The R number is only affected when we score points and/or when the 'third bottom' (critical team) loses points. Of course, if Leicester also drop points (away to Sheff Wed), things get a lot better.
Curiously an Oxford win is not too bad, though, as it then brings Portsmouth to within one point of becoming the 'critical team' and it seems to me that Portsmouth have the toughest run-in of all the relegation candidates. After Oxford, they play Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Leicester, Coventry, Stoke and Birmingham.
This may be why the bookies have Portsmouth as slightly more likely than Leicester to face the drop.
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Thanks for that, much appreciated , it cleared it up in my mind. I was just adding R to the number of current points 🙄!Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.0 -
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Could you repeat that?Dave Rudd said:Arsenetatters said:new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
I thought we might be due an update on this whole concept.
The thread is about mathematical certainty ... not 'how many points do we need to be safe?'.
It goes like this:
To avoid relegation, we have to finish higher than three other teams. This season, Sheff Wed have done us a favour by getting relegated early. So, we have to finish higher than two other teams.
Currently, we have identified five other relegation candidates. These are Blackburn, West Brom, Portsmouth, Leicester and Oxford.
We calculate the maximum number of points that each relegation candidate can achieve. For the purpose of simplicity we ignore any matches that they play against each other, but this can become a factor eventually and we will look at that if required.
At the moment, Blackburn (six matches to play) have 46 points, so they could theoretically accrue a total of 64 points (that's 46 + 18 from their remaining six matches). We know it won't happen, but this thread is about mathematical certainty.
West Brom ... 44 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Portsmouth ... 41 points with seven matches remaining ... theoretical total = 62 points.
Leicester ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Oxford ... 40 points with six matches remaining ... theoretical total = 58 points.
Now, we have to finish better than two other teams (thank you, Sheff Wed) so, for mathematical certainty we need 59 points (ie more than both Leicester and Oxford). We know that 59 points will not ultimately be required but, for mathematical certainty, that's our current target.
Right now, we have 48 points, so the R number ('R' for relegation ... although we adopted this notation during Covid for a bit of a laugh) equals 11 (that's 59 minus our current 48).
This number will be affected by any points that we get, but also (like today) when the critical teams (currently Leicester and Oxford) fail to win. That's why we began the day with the R number at 13 and why it now stands at 11.
When R=0 we are mathematically safe from relegation.
Note that I have avoided any effect due to Goal Difference as this is unpredictable and what we are interested in is mathematical certainty.
I hope that helps.7 -
Today's Portsmouth 2-2 Oxford result doesn't immediately affect the R number (which stays at 11). However, it improves things for us in the following way:
* Leicester are now the 'critical team'. Previously the 'critical teams' were both Leicester and Oxford as they had identical records (ignoring Goal Difference). The R number is affected when we score points and/or when the 'critical team' drops points. So, having only one 'critical team' is better than having two.
* Portsmouth now move to within two points of becoming a 'critical team' and, with their upcoming set of fixtures, they stand every chance of replacing Leicester. Having three teams in the mix (plus Blackburn and West Brom) can only be good.8 -
Is the R number down to 9 now?0
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8 now - 2 off due to Leicester drawing, then another 1 for us drawing.se9addick said:Is the R number down to 9 now?1 -
Our point at Watford coupled with the bonus slip-up by Leicester now makes R=8.7
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Perfect - almost there.1
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Almost but not quite.1
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Two draws will do it for me1
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Plus a few below us have to play one anohter, notably Portsmouth & Leicester, 2 of the bottom 3 (ignoring The Wendies). Pompey have a game in hand against Ipswich, but they'd have to win that to equal West Brom currentlyDave Rudd said:Our point at Watford coupled with the bonus slip-up by Leicester now makes R=8.0 -
But it might not make us mathematically safe, which is the focus of this particular thread.DamoNorthStand said:Two draws will do it for me4 -
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My guess is that we will be mathematically safe after the Sheff Wed game.0
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Agreed hopefully see a few of the youngsters for the final few gamesgolfaddick said:My guess is that we will be mathematically safe after the Sheff Wed game.0 -
Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Oxford 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
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Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.2 -
With only 5 games left now the points per game doesn't vary a great deal of amount. Based on 1.4 pts per game that would generate a round 7 pts from 5 games. 1.5 pts per game generates 7.5 pts while 1.6 pts per game generates a round 8 pts so the example above of teams generating 7 or 8 pts from 5 remaining games actually equates to 1.4 or 1.6 pts per game so there's very little variance in it whether it's 1.4, 1.5 or 1.6 points per game as you say but the numbers above are valid.superclive98 said:
Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.
Anything higher than 1.6 pts per game takes you to top 4 form territory which is unrealistic, always better to look at worst likely outcomes. Before the international break I would have said 53 pts to survive might be the target but the last 3 games looks to have dropped that target down to 50 pts.1 -
MartinCAFC said:
With only 5 games left now the points per game doesn't vary a great deal of amount. Based on 1.4 pts per game that would generate a round 7 pts from 5 games. 1.5 pts per game generates 7.5 pts while 1.6 pts per game generates a round 8 pts so the example above of teams generating 7 or 8 pts from 5 remaining games actually equates to 1.4 or 1.6 pts per game so there's very little variance in it whether it's 1.4, 1.5 or 1.6 points per game as you say but the numbers above are valid.superclive98 said:
Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.
Anything higher than 1.6 pts per game takes you to top 4 form territory which is unrealistic, always better to look at worst likely outcomes. Before the international break I would have said 53 pts to survive might be the target but the last 3 games looks to have dropped that target down to 50 pts.But those are estimates, not absolutes which is what this threat is about as @superclive98 says above.We need 8 points from our last five games to be absolutely certain to survive. Will we need 8 points? Almost certainly not, another 3 or 4 will be ample I believe but that is not absolute. I'll be celebrating when R=0.9 -
I wasn't making the case for estimates I completely agree with the absolute certainty and will be joining you celebrating when R=0 I was merely explaining how 1.4 or 1.6 pts per game was actually detailed in the post above.bobmunro said:MartinCAFC said:
With only 5 games left now the points per game doesn't vary a great deal of amount. Based on 1.4 pts per game that would generate a round 7 pts from 5 games. 1.5 pts per game generates 7.5 pts while 1.6 pts per game generates a round 8 pts so the example above of teams generating 7 or 8 pts from 5 remaining games actually equates to 1.4 or 1.6 pts per game so there's very little variance in it whether it's 1.4, 1.5 or 1.6 points per game as you say but the numbers above are valid.superclive98 said:
Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.
Anything higher than 1.6 pts per game takes you to top 4 form territory which is unrealistic, always better to look at worst likely outcomes. Before the international break I would have said 53 pts to survive might be the target but the last 3 games looks to have dropped that target down to 50 pts.But those are estimates, not absolutes which is what this threat is about as @superclive98 says above.We need 8 points from our last five games to be absolutely certain to survive. Will we need 8 points? Almost certainly not, another 3 or 4 will be ample I believe but that is not absolute. I'll be celebrating when R=0.1 -
MartinCAFC said:
I wasn't making the case for estimates I completely agree with the absolute certainty and will be joining you celebrating when R=0 I was merely explaining how 1.4 or 1.6 pts per game was actually detailed in the post above.bobmunro said:MartinCAFC said:
With only 5 games left now the points per game doesn't vary a great deal of amount. Based on 1.4 pts per game that would generate a round 7 pts from 5 games. 1.5 pts per game generates 7.5 pts while 1.6 pts per game generates a round 8 pts so the example above of teams generating 7 or 8 pts from 5 remaining games actually equates to 1.4 or 1.6 pts per game so there's very little variance in it whether it's 1.4, 1.5 or 1.6 points per game as you say but the numbers above are valid.superclive98 said:
Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.
Anything higher than 1.6 pts per game takes you to top 4 form territory which is unrealistic, always better to look at worst likely outcomes. Before the international break I would have said 53 pts to survive might be the target but the last 3 games looks to have dropped that target down to 50 pts.But those are estimates, not absolutes which is what this threat is about as @superclive98 says above.We need 8 points from our last five games to be absolutely certain to survive. Will we need 8 points? Almost certainly not, another 3 or 4 will be ample I believe but that is not absolute. I'll be celebrating when R=0.
Apologies, I should have quoted @Exiled_Addick1 -
The thread shouldn't necessarily be about absolutes. Calculating probability is part of mathematics too.superclive98 said:
Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.0 -
Are we there yet Dad ??3
