How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

thenewbie said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

SteveKielyCambridge said:

Looking at the fixtures other teams have, I would say that we need 4 more points. Don't really care where they come from (after watching Ipswich last night, the home game against them now looks a lot more possible), but I think that someone will be relegated on 52 points this season.

For that to happen you need one of the below to happen:

Leicester would have to win all 4 games to get to 53 points.
Oxford would need to win 3 out of 4 to get to 53.

It's incredibly unlikely that either team will manage that.

They need to win 3 out of 4 or 2 out of 4 respectively to get to 50. Which is possible but the chances of both pulling that off seem remote. Realistically one more point will do it but of course three or more would be even better and make it more or less certain.

My post was in response to "someone will be relegated on 52 points this season".

Which i think is pretty much impossible.

SteveKielyCambridge said:

Looking at the fixtures other teams have, I would say that we need 4 more points. Don't really care where they come from (after watching Ipswich last night, the home game against them now looks a lot more possible), but I think that someone will be relegated on 52 points this season.

Looking at the table, I can’t see how you’ve calculated someone is getting relegated on 52 points. 

se9addick said:

llama_child_21cws said:

We are not going to get relegated. No one else apart from Charlton fans think we are going down

Playing Devils Advocate I suspect no-one else thinks we’re getting relegated because no-one else is paying attention to how poorly we’ve been playing or how bad our form is. 

I don’t think we’ll go down, but I’m less certain than I was a couple of weeks back. 

Everything hinges on Saturday. If we win, then we can be confident.

If we don’t then it really is a big problem.

llama_child_21cws said:

We are not going to get relegated. No one else apart from Charlton fans think we are going down

I tend to agree, as we stand here today, before our game on Saturday to the team that is on a negative points total and has not won at home all season. That fixture was always the one that had to be somewhat of a banker.

Don't get me wrong - I'm alarmed and worried by our significant dip in form since the win at The Riverside, particularly in relation to the last 3 home games. Whilst Norwich had essentially playoff form since their new manager came in, both Bristol City and Preston were both there for the taking from a form perspective AND had nothing to really play for. Arguably you could say Bristol City had a new manager bounce from Hodgson going in there and that was unfortunate timing, but lets be honest, he was picking the players from the knowledge of those around him more than anything else. Preston, including beating us, still have worse form in the last 10 games than we do. Both those last two home games should have been 2 points collectively, but it was the very worst possible outcome from both against teams that were completely there for us to, at the very least, not lose.

The Sheff Weds game is essentially our cup final now. Statistically, we should be fine - we still have solid away form, broadly speaking, and they have worse home form than even we do. They are not Championship standard and, if anything, means we should be on a level playing field technically for one of very few games this season. They have shown they can score goals and make things tricky, but they are playing without any pressure at all, aside from a bit of pride to try and win a home game. They have us this weekend and then WBA on the last day - we should be as motivated as anyone to get the win here, but equally, WBA will want to fight tooth and nail for points if their deduction plays into things. Maybe this is considered the easier of the two to get that win, but from their perspective, they'll have at least one more chance to get that duck off their back.

I become concerned only after the result is not avoiding defeat on Saturday. Lose that, and then the concern significantly rises. Even a point at this stage helps us, whilst getting all three would pretty much secure safety. Responsibility is largely on the players - I feel like they thought everything was done and dusted after that Middlesbrough win. NJ has thrown things at the wall to try and make things stick - part of me thinks that this is a selfish move to secure funding for next season. Sadly, I sceptically feel like his selections and substitutions at very select occasions are influenced by this thought in the back of his mind. I don't want this to be true - it just sometimes feels like that, proving his lack of quality narrative.

Difficult to know whether NJ goes with the full park the bus Coady/Doc deep strat. It feels like it's a game for senior players to get a job done and for no messing around. Keep it as simple as possible and beat what's in front of you. The unpredictability of the Championship suggests Sheff Weds will get one more win -  it just needs to not be us.

I think it's really is only us that are really concerned about going down. Can absolutely blame PTSD for that. However, no point worrying about it yet - all becomes a lot clearer on Saturday evening.

golfaddick said:

stoneroses19 said:

SteveKielyCambridge said:

Looking at the fixtures other teams have, I would say that we need 4 more points. Don't really care where they come from (after watching Ipswich last night, the home game against them now looks a lot more possible), but I think that someone will be relegated on 52 points this season.

Looking at the table, I can’t see how you’ve calculated someone is getting relegated on 52 points. 

The teams in relegation fight would all need to gain the amount of points seen below in 4 games (Blackburn in 3 games) to reach 52 points. 

Some of the below will get to 52 points, but not enough of them for one to be relegated with that points tally. 

Leicester 12 points 
Oxford 8 points 
West Brom 6 points 
Blackburn 4 points 
Portsmouth 4 points 
Charlton 3 points 

Both Leicester and Pompey can't get those points as they play each other on Sat.

Just relax. We will all be laughing about this in a couple of months time when on our holibobs sipping margaritas on the beach and planning our trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Of course both Leicester and Portsmouth can get those points. Leicester win all 4 games and Portsmouth get 4 points from the other 3 games.
Just as well you're not in a job that involves numbers!

Oggy Red said:

In fact, Leicester really do have a job on they hands to get out of the doodoo.

Portsmouth A
Hull H
Millwall H
Blackburn A

They've got to win both of their 6-pointers - and at least 4 points from their 2 home games against promotion chasers.

Anything less, and they'll depend on Charlton self-destructing, which we seem to be in the process of doing 

Unfortunately three teams go down and it’s that third spot, currently occupied by Oxford, that’s the risk.

Funny thing is, right now it's completely in our own hands.

We need to just win the next game.
And breathe.

Over to you, Nathan 

I’m definitely guilty of switching off this season after the oxford draw. To me that was it, job done - I think like everybody else we have now tilted into full on panic as we are sticking out like a sore thumb as the team who gets dragged in late on - I think we’re also assuming we only have the Sheff Wed game as a realistic chance at getting anything- I agree we have to go into the game like that but the reality is we’re just as likely to pick up points in the other 3 games - I reckon NJ will have the squad fully switched back on 100% this week and we will be wondering what we were panicking about

golfaddick said:

stoneroses19 said:

SteveKielyCambridge said:

Looking at the fixtures other teams have, I would say that we need 4 more points. Don't really care where they come from (after watching Ipswich last night, the home game against them now looks a lot more possible), but I think that someone will be relegated on 52 points this season.

Looking at the table, I can’t see how you’ve calculated someone is getting relegated on 52 points. 

The teams in relegation fight would all need to gain the amount of points seen below in 4 games (Blackburn in 3 games) to reach 52 points. 

Some of the below will get to 52 points, but not enough of them for one to be relegated with that points tally. 

Leicester 12 points 
Oxford 8 points 
West Brom 6 points 
Blackburn 4 points 
Portsmouth 4 points 
Charlton 3 points 

Both Leicester and Pompey can't get those points as they play each other on Sat.

Just relax. We will all be laughing about this in a couple of months time when on our holibobs sipping margaritas on the beach and planning our trip to Hayes Lane.

DOUCHER said:

I’m definitely guilty of switching off this season after the oxford draw. To me that was it, job done - I think like everybody else we have now tilted into full on panic as we are sticking out like a sore thumb as the team who gets dragged in late on - I think we’re also assuming we only have the Sheff Wed game as a realistic chance at getting anything- I agree we have to go into the game like that but the reality is we’re just as likely to pick up points in the other 3 games - I reckon NJ will have the squad fully switched back on 100% this week and we will be wondering what we were panicking about

I'm pretty confident that we won't lose on Saturday. Not by any means saying that we'll win but i don't think we'll lose.

Aside from our recent away form being very good, it appears to be a game where a lot of fans are expecting us to slip up. Typically those are the games where we actually go and get a result. It's the games where people are confident of a win that we tend to fuck up.

I was confident going into the final day of the season in 19/20 though