Andy Murray v Roger Federer: five things that will decide Wimbledon semi-final
Craig O’Shannessy, lead analyst for the ATP and WTA Tours and the mastermind behind Dustin Brown’s win over Rafael Nadal, runs the rule over the two players
The Federer serve The most impressive thing in Roger Federer’s matches so far is his serving. He’s hitting his spots, he’s serving well, first serve, serve and volley, he’s mixing second serves, serve and volley. Everything is built around a strong first-serve percentage for him. That’s really the most important thing in the match. Every part of Roger’s game is better when he’s serving well. It allows Roger to do other things. Even the return game is better because he’s not under pressure. I think his average first serve percentage over his career is about 63%. It feels like it has to be more here, maybe about 67%. If he hits that average there’s not much Andy Murray can do.
The Murray second serve Roger should attack the Murray second serve, for sure. He makes more errors off his forehand return but he wins more points overall off it. He puts a ton of backhands back into play but he doesn’t win quite as many. Andy has to figure out where to go. On the deuce court, on the first serve, he’s got to go wide, pull him off the court, open up a hole. Two or three times a set Roger will chip and charge and come in off the return – and he likes to do it on the deuce court, down the line on the backhand – so Andy’s got to try to jam him a bit to the forehand. Mixing second serves to the forehand will be vital because if Roger gets in a rhythm with that serve coming to the backhand he’ll start to come over it with topspin.
How Murray deals with Federer coming to the net Roger just grows another leg up there, he really does. So anything Andy can do to stop him coming in will help. The thing Andy’s got to have an awareness of is how good is Roger going to be at the net? Roger’s going to come in on first serves, on second serves, on returns, with a regular approach, and he’s probably going to hit a drop shot and come in. So there are five ways he will come in and Andy’s got to have an awareness of which one’s working better on the day and try to have a plan to shut that down. Using the lob is a great idea for Andy. Roger can close in tight on the net and I’ve seen him miss quite a few overheads going back. You try to put it over the backhand if you can but for sure that’s a good idea.
The Murray forehand on the run I did some analysis of four matches between them and Andy made something like 67 errors when he was running from the ad[vantage] court to the forehand out wide, about 15 in the middle and only a few on the backhand. It used to be that you’d just get him on the run; it’s now a strength – I’ve hardly seen him miss it. Every time I’ve seen him on defence there, he’s flicked it across, and that corner to corner, I believe, is four and a half feet longer than down the line, so when he’s on defence he’s going right at that corner, where he’s got more room to land that.
Who deals with the occasion better on the day I don’t remember Andy playing better than this, and I don’t remember Roger playing better than this either – both guys are really at the absolute peak of their game. Roger’s not framing the ball, he’s hitting it clean. Andy’s hitting it harder. Both have improved. It’s going to be remarkable to see who blinks, to see who gets nervous. We always say it’s going to come down to a few points but it could come down to one point. It’s a crackerjack match. With Roger, all his strengths are on the serving side. For Andy, all his are on the returning side.
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Federer also took the first set.
R1: Kukushkin (KAZ)R2: Haase (NED)R3: 25 Seppi (ITA)R4: 23 Karlovic (CRO)QF: Pospisil (CAN)SF: 2 Federer (SUI)
F: 1 Djokovic (SER) / 21 Gasquet (FRA)
COME ON MURRAY!
Andy Murray v Roger Federer: five things that will decide Wimbledon semi-final
Craig O’Shannessy, lead analyst for the ATP and WTA Tours and the mastermind behind Dustin Brown’s win over Rafael Nadal, runs the rule over the two players
The Federer serve
The most impressive thing in Roger Federer’s matches so far is his serving. He’s hitting his spots, he’s serving well, first serve, serve and volley, he’s mixing second serves, serve and volley. Everything is built around a strong first-serve percentage for him. That’s really the most important thing in the match. Every part of Roger’s game is better when he’s serving well. It allows Roger to do other things. Even the return game is better because he’s not under pressure. I think his average first serve percentage over his career is about 63%. It feels like it has to be more here, maybe about 67%. If he hits that average there’s not much Andy Murray can do.
The Murray second serve
Roger should attack the Murray second serve, for sure. He makes more errors off his forehand return but he wins more points overall off it. He puts a ton of backhands back into play but he doesn’t win quite as many. Andy has to figure out where to go. On the deuce court, on the first serve, he’s got to go wide, pull him off the court, open up a hole. Two or three times a set Roger will chip and charge and come in off the return – and he likes to do it on the deuce court, down the line on the backhand – so Andy’s got to try to jam him a bit to the forehand. Mixing second serves to the forehand will be vital because if Roger gets in a rhythm with that serve coming to the backhand he’ll start to come over it with topspin.
How Murray deals with Federer coming to the net
Roger just grows another leg up there, he really does. So anything Andy can do to stop him coming in will help. The thing Andy’s got to have an awareness of is how good is Roger going to be at the net? Roger’s going to come in on first serves, on second serves, on returns, with a regular approach, and he’s probably going to hit a drop shot and come in. So there are five ways he will come in and Andy’s got to have an awareness of which one’s working better on the day and try to have a plan to shut that down. Using the lob is a great idea for Andy. Roger can close in tight on the net and I’ve seen him miss quite a few overheads going back. You try to put it over the backhand if you can but for sure that’s a good idea.
The Murray forehand on the run
I did some analysis of four matches between them and Andy made something like 67 errors when he was running from the ad[vantage] court to the forehand out wide, about 15 in the middle and only a few on the backhand. It used to be that you’d just get him on the run; it’s now a strength – I’ve hardly seen him miss it. Every time I’ve seen him on defence there, he’s flicked it across, and that corner to corner, I believe, is four and a half feet longer than down the line, so when he’s on defence he’s going right at that corner, where he’s got more room to land that.
Who deals with the occasion better on the day
I don’t remember Andy playing better than this, and I don’t remember Roger playing better than this either – both guys are really at the absolute peak of their game. Roger’s not framing the ball, he’s hitting it clean. Andy’s hitting it harder. Both have improved. It’s going to be remarkable to see who blinks, to see who gets nervous. We always say it’s going to come down to a few points but it could come down to one point. It’s a crackerjack match. With Roger, all his strengths are on the serving side. For Andy, all his are on the returning side.
Either way it will be a spectacle, there's nothing like top level, tense sport
Reckon this could go on and on.
Wish this was the final in a way, would rather either one to win over Djokovic.
Federer is playing unbelievably well and Murray is the only one making slight errors.