well done peanuts, gutted i backed oscar time on the nose, but had state of play e/w just a little down but that was down to putting on bets for the missus and kids, i backed oscar time, what a friend on the nose, state of play and hello bud e/w along with golden kite.Down £1.87 ;-).Worst thimg is watching the race with the mother in law who backed ballybriggs
Pleased that a lot of you guys are ahead to some degree. I don't think I'll repeat this year's innovation of laying those I don't fancy. Still ahead but could have done without subsidising Mike's bar tab.
Thank you Peanuts. I backed your 4 tips E/W laying out £50 + a £10 free bet = £60.
Thanks to the 2nd & 4th I now have £125 in my new Bet 365 account. A £75 profit.
Now just need to work out how to get at it.
Thought I had complied with their complex T&C but not so sure now.
Anyway would love to buy you a beer, so if your thirsty give me a whisper.
Peanuts out of interest do you get to many games... I'm sure if you made yourself known you wouldn't have to trot up to the bar for most of the season the beers people owe you!
[cite]Posted By: Covered End[/cite]Thank you Peanuts. I backed your 4 tips E/W laying out £50 + a £10 free bet = £60.
Thanks to the 2nd & 4th I now have £125 in my new Bet 365 account. A £75 profit.
Now just need to work out how to get at it.
Thought I had complied with their complex T&C but not so sure now.
Anyway would love to buy you a beer, so if your thirsty give me a whisper.
Champagne, Champagne :-)
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Peanuts out of interest do you get to many games... I'm sure if you made yourself known you wouldn't have to trot up to the bar for most of the season the beers people owe you!
[cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]Cheers PM. Doubled my money today even if Golden Kite didnt come in.
I really do owe you a drink or 5 the amount of money you've won me! Top fella!
You're very kind chaps. I may well (make that will definitely) share a sherbet or two with you one of these days.
[cite]Posted By: happyvalley[/cite]The race should be banned. How can anyone justify the death of 2 beautiful creatures for the sole purpose of entertainment.
One contender broke a leg and was put down on the gallops before the race, it's part and parcel of it I'm afraid. And don't think I'm being flippant here, my family owned a racing greyhound, and he was a hurdler, every time he ran we could barely watch, as he used to barely clear the flights, you could just hear the thuds as his legs thudded them
[cite]Posted By: happyvalley[/cite]The race should be banned. How can anyone justify the death of 2 beautiful creatures for the sole purpose of entertainment.
[cite]Posted By: happyvalley[/cite]The race should be banned. How can anyone justify the death of 2 beautiful creatures for the sole purpose of entertainment.
It's a long and complicated argument that nobody will win but as much as it's a fact that two horses very unfortunately lost their lives today, the horses are born for it, bred for it and they absolutely love the thrill and the occasion and the limelight. They are amazing animals.
Got 1st, 2nd & 4th from my 4 picks on Facebook this morning, yet only backed 3 of them and not bloody Ballabriggs ! Mentioned the winner in this thread somewhere but PM thought I was having a laugh !
I was going to ask PM why he ruled out Ballabriggs, but found it :-
Ballabriggs (11 stone / best price 16/1)
A fine racehorse but an awful lot is discounted in his price.
His main statistical deficiency (and it’s a powerful one) is that no horse since 1988 (possibly longer as my database only goes back in detail to then) has won the GN that had not already won or been placed in a class 1 (or equiv) chase at 3 miles+. In fact, all but 2 of the 21 winners had won or been placed in one of the Gold Cup, Hennessy, Welsh, Scottish or Irish Nationals or a class 1 of at least 4 miles. Furthermore, of the 21 horses that have been placed within 10 lengths of those GN winners, only 4 had not won or been placed in a 3 mile+ class 1 chase and, of those 4, 1 was a 3m 3f Becher chase winner (class 2 at the time, now class 1), 1 had won a class 1 over 2.5 miles and 2 had run in less than 6 chases under rules and carried no more than 10st 1lb on the big day. BTW there is a significant sample of runners in these GNs which did not comply with this stat so the rule has been a relatively robust one to date.
Ballabriggs has never competed in a class 1 over any distance in his 12 chases to date. Of course, that does not mean that he cannot win one at the first time of asking but the way he only just made it home in front in the 3m1f Kim Muir at last year’s Festival (admittedly a fine performance in itself under top weight) didn’t suggest he’s a shoe-in to do so first time over 4.5 miles.
His profile looks very much like Cloudy Lane’s - same owner and trainer, also a Kim Muir winner and a similarly fine horse but, according to the stats, the market’s expectations are too high. We’ll see if, unlike Cloudy Lane (6th in the 2008 GN), Ballabriggs has the stamina for the GN, though nothing that his elder, full-brother Letterman has done would suggest it’s in his immediate family
Got 1st, 2nd & 4th from my 4 picks on Facebook this morning, yet only backed 3 of them and not bloody Ballabriggs ! Mentioned the winner in this thread somewhere but PM thought I was having a laugh !
TBH JT Ballabriggs wasn't in your final squad yesterday & although you did tip him previously, you also tipped Backstage and What A friend as well at various points, together with Bluesea Cracker if it rained. So you tipped 7 or 8 out of the 40 :-)
Final squad.
Oscar Time
State of Play
Character Building
becauseicouldntsee
Bloodsport. Can't believe I got sucked into this shit. Running around corpses on the turf. If they were jockies it would be banned. Fucking disgrace. Not sport.
Got 1st, 2nd & 4th from my 4 picks on Facebook this morning, yet only backed 3 of them and not bloody Ballabriggs ! Mentioned the winner in this thread somewhere but PM thought I was having a laugh !
Apologies for that JT.
Quite a powerful stat that Ballabriggs has broken (no Class 1 win at any distance until today) so I standby my analysis but from time to time there will be a significant trend-breaker (e.g. Hedgehunter-11 stone barrier, Don’t Push It-11-05, Mon Mome-French bred). My model attempts to pre-empt that by not acting as a process of elimination but it’s always going to fail from time to time. I still can’t believe that was the same horse that was tying up at the end of the Kim Muir a year ago but fair play to him, a thoroughly deserved victory.
It was pretty much that single stat that kept Ballabriggs off the radar screen for my model so a modest tweak should suffice for future purposes.
In any event. hopefully my musings confirmed some of your own research on others and congrats on another profitable year. Shame that State Of Play is destined to be an Aintree bridesmaid but he’s in good company.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Shame that State Of Play is destined to be an Aintree bridesmaid but he’s in good company.
Fantastically gutsy horse, three places in a row and has to go down as an Aintree legend of the modern era... shouldn't think it's that likely he'll come back as a 12-year old next year, I'd imagine Evan Williams will have a couple of tears tonight.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Shame that State Of Play is destined to be an Aintree bridesmaid but he’s in good company.
Fantastically gutsy horse, three places in a row and has to go down as an Aintree legend of the modern era... shouldn't think it's that likely he'll come back as a 12-year old next year, I'd imagine Evan Williams will have a couple of tears tonight.
Absolutely. Are you old enough to remember The Pilgarlic: 4th, 5th, 4th, 3rd from 1977~1980?
Comments
Cheer anyway PM!
Ornais and Dooley's Gate. Very sad and thoughts with all those around them.
Very sad indeed.
Thanks to the 2nd & 4th I now have £125 in my new Bet 365 account. A £75 profit.
Now just need to work out how to get at it.
Thought I had complied with their complex T&C but not so sure now.
Anyway would love to buy you a beer, so if your thirsty give me a whisper.
Champagne, Champagne :-)
I really do owe you a drink or 5 the amount of money you've won me! Top fella!
You're very kind chaps. I may well (make that will definitely) share a sherbet or two with you one of these days.
One contender broke a leg and was put down on the gallops before the race, it's part and parcel of it I'm afraid. And don't think I'm being flippant here, my family owned a racing greyhound, and he was a hurdler, every time he ran we could barely watch, as he used to barely clear the flights, you could just hear the thuds as his legs thudded them
But the sole purpose isn't entertainment.
It's a long and complicated argument that nobody will win but as much as it's a fact that two horses very unfortunately lost their lives today, the horses are born for it, bred for it and they absolutely love the thrill and the occasion and the limelight. They are amazing animals.
All my family backed the winner because my wife's mother name was Briggs! ..... we always look for 'connections' as we are complete mug punters!
I put a couple of quid on the 'kite' and the second horse so a good afternoon around the TV with the family!.......
Haha this is the point that a number of weeks' (or months' in the case of Peanuts) homework is made to look foolish!
Well done ken.
Got 1st, 2nd & 4th from my 4 picks on Facebook this morning, yet only backed 3 of them and not bloody Ballabriggs ! Mentioned the winner in this thread somewhere but PM thought I was having a laugh !
Ballabriggs (11 stone / best price 16/1)
A fine racehorse but an awful lot is discounted in his price.
His main statistical deficiency (and it’s a powerful one) is that no horse since 1988 (possibly longer as my database only goes back in detail to then) has won the GN that had not already won or been placed in a class 1 (or equiv) chase at 3 miles+. In fact, all but 2 of the 21 winners had won or been placed in one of the Gold Cup, Hennessy, Welsh, Scottish or Irish Nationals or a class 1 of at least 4 miles. Furthermore, of the 21 horses that have been placed within 10 lengths of those GN winners, only 4 had not won or been placed in a 3 mile+ class 1 chase and, of those 4, 1 was a 3m 3f Becher chase winner (class 2 at the time, now class 1), 1 had won a class 1 over 2.5 miles and 2 had run in less than 6 chases under rules and carried no more than 10st 1lb on the big day. BTW there is a significant sample of runners in these GNs which did not comply with this stat so the rule has been a relatively robust one to date.
Ballabriggs has never competed in a class 1 over any distance in his 12 chases to date. Of course, that does not mean that he cannot win one at the first time of asking but the way he only just made it home in front in the 3m1f Kim Muir at last year’s Festival (admittedly a fine performance in itself under top weight) didn’t suggest he’s a shoe-in to do so first time over 4.5 miles.
His profile looks very much like Cloudy Lane’s - same owner and trainer, also a Kim Muir winner and a similarly fine horse but, according to the stats, the market’s expectations are too high. We’ll see if, unlike Cloudy Lane (6th in the 2008 GN), Ballabriggs has the stamina for the GN, though nothing that his elder, full-brother Letterman has done would suggest it’s in his immediate family
TBH JT Ballabriggs wasn't in your final squad yesterday & although you did tip him previously, you also tipped Backstage and What A friend as well at various points, together with Bluesea Cracker if it rained. So you tipped 7 or 8 out of the 40 :-)
Final squad.
Oscar Time
State of Play
Character Building
becauseicouldntsee
If it tips with rain - Bluesea cracker
Me and the wife Curb-it got 2nd and 4th and are more than happy.
Many thanks for this.
Sucked into what "shit"? How were you sucked into anything? If you don't like something then surely don't get involved in it?
The horses love the occasion, they are bred for it and well treated. Without the sport they wouldn't be alive.
Apologies for that JT.
Quite a powerful stat that Ballabriggs has broken (no Class 1 win at any distance until today) so I standby my analysis but from time to time there will be a significant trend-breaker (e.g. Hedgehunter-11 stone barrier, Don’t Push It-11-05, Mon Mome-French bred). My model attempts to pre-empt that by not acting as a process of elimination but it’s always going to fail from time to time. I still can’t believe that was the same horse that was tying up at the end of the Kim Muir a year ago but fair play to him, a thoroughly deserved victory.
It was pretty much that single stat that kept Ballabriggs off the radar screen for my model so a modest tweak should suffice for future purposes.
In any event. hopefully my musings confirmed some of your own research on others and congrats on another profitable year. Shame that State Of Play is destined to be an Aintree bridesmaid but he’s in good company.
Fantastically gutsy horse, three places in a row and has to go down as an Aintree legend of the modern era... shouldn't think it's that likely he'll come back as a 12-year old next year, I'd imagine Evan Williams will have a couple of tears tonight.
Absolutely. Are you old enough to remember The Pilgarlic: 4th, 5th, 4th, 3rd from 1977~1980?
You are absolutely spot on ISLS.