I am delighted to announce the 3 horses which have qualified for an investment of Hero dollars, and which therefore now have more chance of being shot than winning or being placed:
Time of Topham I make 5m 20secs. It should be faster than the Foxhunters (weight and ability) but it's the quickest Topham for 10 years+. I reckon the ground is riding good, maybe good to soft places.
Turftrax map confirms GN course at 12.45 today was Good, Good-to-Soft places (confirmed by time of Topham). They are going to water parts of the course after racing.
Tomorrow due to be sunny and breezy.
Should be perfect ground.
VC paying SIX places on their website now, don't know how long it's going to last but when they have fairly decent long-odds chances like Hello Bud and Skippers Brig 33/1, Calgary Bay 40/1, and our old mate Golden Kite 80/1 then fill your boots while it does
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Peanuts, out of interest, despite discarding Silver By Nature on account of the ground... have you had a small cover?
I did on Wed pm when they'd watered it to go soft but I reversed it yesterday and today with the times of those 2.5 mile races and have laid him on Betfair.
I've backed all 6 of my model's win and place fancies and so have also laid a few that it really doesn't like (Backstage, Ballabriggs, Niche Market, Dont Push It, Quinz, Arbor Supreme). "S**t or bust" I think is the expression.
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Peanuts, out of interest, despite discarding Silver By Nature on account of the ground... have you had a small cover?
I did on Wed pm when they'd watered it to go soft but I reversed it yesterday and today with the times of those 2.5 mile races and have laid him on Betfair.
I've backed all 6 of my model's win and place fancies and so have also laid a few that it really doesn't like (Backstage, Ballabriggs, Niche Market, Dont Push It, Quinz, Arbor Supreme). "S**t or bust" I think is the expression.
Haha good form as always. Just interested as I wondered about how it ties in with Mon Mome a couple of years ago with its ground preference, obviously MM had more going for it besides ground preference than Silver By Nature does according to your model. Racing Post have napped it, though to be fair they don't have anything on you!
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]
Haha good form as always. Just interested as I wondered about how it ties in with Mon Mome a couple of years ago with its ground preference, obviously MM had more going for it besides ground preference than Silver By Nature does according to your model. Racing Post have napped it, though to be fair they don't have anything on you!
Not Pricewise is it? I see Spotlight says SBN, DPI, The Midnight Club and Niche Market.
Hmm. I think they have a different model to mine
Mon Mome had some kind of form on better ground whereas SBN has none and this ground is certainly quicker than when Mom Mome won so I'm reasonably comfortable.......though I might cover the short if the price balloons ;o)
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]
Haha good form as always. Just interested as I wondered about how it ties in with Mon Mome a couple of years ago with its ground preference, obviously MM had more going for it besides ground preference than Silver By Nature does according to your model. Racing Post have napped it, though to be fair they don't have anything on you!
Not Pricewise is it? I see Spotlight says SBN, DPI, The Midnight Club and Niche Market.
Hmm. I think they have a different model to mine
Mon Mome had some kind of form on better ground whereas SBN has none and this ground is certainly quicker than when Mom Mome won so I'm reasonably comfortable.......though I might cover the short if the price balloons ;o)
No just Spotlight... as above I don't think you've got anything more to prove with your model!
Price is actually dropping interestingly enough. Been going out all day and suddenly on the way back. Still can't believe DPI is into 9's, 8's in some places... will it be 6's by the off?
Lol, went to bet on Ladbrokes just now and I completley forgot I had 155 quid sitting in my A/C from my world cup bets. Awesome! I threw a fiver on Oscar Time.
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]
Price is actually dropping interestingly enough. Been going out all day and suddenly on the way back. Still can't believe DPI is into 9's, 8's in some places... will it be 6's by the off?
There is the grey factor that will keep SBN popular with the ladies but am surprised he's come back on Betfair. I might bottle out and cover the short but I won't back him. Nothing's infallible but I have to stick with the system - actually of the out-and-out stayers I think West End Rocker will handle the quicker ground better than SBN.
Big unknown is whether DPI is a Red Rum? Don't think so but we'll find out tomorrow.
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Peanuts, out of interest, despite discarding Silver By Nature on account of the ground... have you had a small cover?
Blimey, the "pundits" are queuing up to tip Silver By Nature.
Many say horses that have won long distance chases on heavy can do well in the GN even on decent ground. They are right but when they have, they have always also run well in decent 3 mile chases on good or good-to-soft at worse. SBN (who would have had an outstanding chance on soft) has not done so. Three 3m+ chases on good or good-to-soft have produced: UR (when held), 38L 5th of 9 in a Class 3 and most tellingly (because of the demanding nature of the race and its correlation to good GN performances), 129L 10th of 18 in the last Hennessy.
Others say he's 11lbs well-in. Blah, blah, blah, blah. How many times has that been trotted out over the years for hot things in the GN? Sometimes (eg Rough Quest) they come in (though he also ticked a lot of boxes). Mostly it means nothing.
Others are telling themselves SBN can still be effective on genuine good-to-soft ground. Again I would agree (his damsire was Strong Gale whose progeny preferred top of the ground) but, unless they forgot to turn off the sprinklers last night, this is not genuine good-to-soft ground. The time of the Topham yesterday suggested that there were very few good-to-soft places - it was comfortably the fastest Topham for 10 years+. This looks like being at least as good ground as last year, even if the official description is "Good-to-Soft." Admittedly there was Black Apalachi and Conna Castle that made it a red-hot pace in 2010 and it may not be quite so brutal this time but, whoever makes the running, it will not be a dawdle.
I may well be the mug at 4.25pm and all the pundits may be crowing but I'm definitely laying him. Even more so, as many of them are tipping Niche Market as their next best.
In any event, best of luck to everyone. Most of all, to all 40 horses and jockeys. Please, please, please no bad injuries or worse for any of them.
EDIT: official going description this morning is Good, Good-to-Soft places after selectively watering the GN course. Forecast is for 21 degrees and sunny.
[cite]Posted By: AFKABartram[/cite]I'm up early PM to empty the housekeeping pot, the rainy day pot and the babyfood pot. She'll never know, what could go wrong ;-)
Comments
Win: Oscar Time
E/W: State of Play, Golden Kite
Many thanks.
LOL. Well done. I would have said don't touch him!
You're losing it again pal. Have a sit down and a nice cup of tea.
Tomorrow due to be sunny and breezy.
Should be perfect ground.
I did on Wed pm when they'd watered it to go soft but I reversed it yesterday and today with the times of those 2.5 mile races and have laid him on Betfair.
I've backed all 6 of my model's win and place fancies and so have also laid a few that it really doesn't like (Backstage, Ballabriggs, Niche Market, Dont Push It, Quinz, Arbor Supreme). "S**t or bust" I think is the expression.
Haha good form as always. Just interested as I wondered about how it ties in with Mon Mome a couple of years ago with its ground preference, obviously MM had more going for it besides ground preference than Silver By Nature does according to your model. Racing Post have napped it, though to be fair they don't have anything on you!
Not Pricewise is it? I see Spotlight says SBN, DPI, The Midnight Club and Niche Market.
Hmm. I think they have a different model to mine
Mon Mome had some kind of form on better ground whereas SBN has none and this ground is certainly quicker than when Mom Mome won so I'm reasonably comfortable.......though I might cover the short if the price balloons ;o)
No just Spotlight... as above I don't think you've got anything more to prove with your model!
Price is actually dropping interestingly enough. Been going out all day and suddenly on the way back. Still can't believe DPI is into 9's, 8's in some places... will it be 6's by the off?
There is the grey factor that will keep SBN popular with the ladies but am surprised he's come back on Betfair. I might bottle out and cover the short but I won't back him. Nothing's infallible but I have to stick with the system - actually of the out-and-out stayers I think West End Rocker will handle the quicker ground better than SBN.
Big unknown is whether DPI is a Red Rum? Don't think so but we'll find out tomorrow.
OiT!
I was pointing it out purely for the name.
Blimey, the "pundits" are queuing up to tip Silver By Nature.
Many say horses that have won long distance chases on heavy can do well in the GN even on decent ground. They are right but when they have, they have always also run well in decent 3 mile chases on good or good-to-soft at worse. SBN (who would have had an outstanding chance on soft) has not done so. Three 3m+ chases on good or good-to-soft have produced: UR (when held), 38L 5th of 9 in a Class 3 and most tellingly (because of the demanding nature of the race and its correlation to good GN performances), 129L 10th of 18 in the last Hennessy.
Others say he's 11lbs well-in. Blah, blah, blah, blah. How many times has that been trotted out over the years for hot things in the GN? Sometimes (eg Rough Quest) they come in (though he also ticked a lot of boxes). Mostly it means nothing.
Others are telling themselves SBN can still be effective on genuine good-to-soft ground. Again I would agree (his damsire was Strong Gale whose progeny preferred top of the ground) but, unless they forgot to turn off the sprinklers last night, this is not genuine good-to-soft ground. The time of the Topham yesterday suggested that there were very few good-to-soft places - it was comfortably the fastest Topham for 10 years+. This looks like being at least as good ground as last year, even if the official description is "Good-to-Soft." Admittedly there was Black Apalachi and Conna Castle that made it a red-hot pace in 2010 and it may not be quite so brutal this time but, whoever makes the running, it will not be a dawdle.
I may well be the mug at 4.25pm and all the pundits may be crowing but I'm definitely laying him. Even more so, as many of them are tipping Niche Market as their next best.
In any event, best of luck to everyone. Most of all, to all 40 horses and jockeys. Please, please, please no bad injuries or worse for any of them.
EDIT: official going description this morning is Good, Good-to-Soft places after selectively watering the GN course. Forecast is for 21 degrees and sunny.
Have a great day PM.
Cheers AFKA. Good luck.
come on u schlaaaaaags.