[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Peanuts any dabbles today... a lot of very skinny-priced horses around today based on either past history or Cheltenham form from last month.
Sorry to disappoint ISLS but I haven't even looked at the cards. Recollection is that there always seem to be some good chances to oppose Festival winners.
[cite]Posted By: Curb_It[/cite]At around 5m 30s it is Gd, 5m 45s it is GS, 6m it is Sft.
I dont understand this but I can tell its very significant!! Woo hoo.
Plaaayer is right Curb_It, (though if the Foxhunters was won in 5m 5secs the Aintree groundsman would have a heart attack.....and probably so would the horse).
Because they all run off the same weight in the Foxhunters and there is a large field, the winning time is quite a good pointer to the state of the ground as we can make a reasonable comparison with previous years. Of course the ground can change (potentially a lot with rain) before Saturday pm but with fairly dry weather, moderate wind and cloud cover, one could expect it to dry out a bit; unless they panic and turn the taps on of course.
Not all horses would be bothered whether it is Good or Soft but it definitely will affect the chances of some. On Soft it will be much harder for some (eg Ballabriggs, Big Fella Thanks, Golden Kite) to get the trip. On good it will be much harder for some (notably Silver By Nature) to stay in contention at the fast pace that would be virtually certain.
[cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]Golden Kite is in! We're RICH!
I can see we'll need to keep you on a tight rein on Saturday Plaaayer. Keep your fingers crossed for good ground.
It's on. Just warning you now, if he places my manlove for Peanuts will reach the level of that towards Rufus and Di Canio. If he wins, you're up there with Mendonca mate....
For whats its worth, I laid my winnings from Cheltenham straight out on the GN plus an early bet on Golden Kite.
22 Mar 11 / 18:17 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright State Of Play @ 25/1 – £2.26
22 Mar 11 / 16:42 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Oscar Time @ 12/1 – £5.00
22 Mar 11 / 16:42 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Don't Push It @ 16/1 – £10.00
22 Mar 11 / 16:42 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Hello Bud @ 33/1 – £10.00
03 Mar 11 / 17:27 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Golden Kite @ 50/1 £4.00
Ok Henry
Taking he view that the ground has enough juice in it (thankfully no fatalities in the Foxhunters Chase to cause them to panic) such that they don't turn the sprinklers on and that the weather is set fair, the going should not be any softer than Good-to-Soft, Good places on Saturday for the BIg One. Therefore I think it will be too quick for Silver By Nature to make the frame.
Therefore the final recommendations are:
Win Candidates:
Oscar Time – 12/1
State Of Play – 25/1
Hello Bud – 33/1
What A Friend – 12/1
[cite]Posted By: Curb_It[/cite]Thanks so much Peanuts. I got 280-1 im sure on Golden kit but sadly only to win it as didnt understand BetFair. Still happy days!
He might oblige, you never know. You could always top it up with £2 e/w at 80/1 with VC Bet (5 places).
[cite]Posted By: MrOneLung[/cite]
I am so confident I have persuaded my mate to host The1st Annual Peanuts Molloy Grand National Celebration Barbecue on Saturday 3pm start.
Apparently his garden is good/good to soft in parts.
Not sure if this has any bearing on the statistical model though.
This is good.
[cite]Posted By: allez les addicks [/cite] It's on. Just warning you now, if he places my manlove for Peanuts will reach the level of that towards Rufus and Di Canio. If he wins, you're up there with Mendonca mate....
How are we all going to be feeling come 4.30 Saturday afternoon ? Flat or happy. I reckon one thing... no one on here will be giving much thought to whether Charlton are wining or losing!!
[cite]Posted By: MrOneLung[/cite]
I am so confident I have persuaded my mate to host The1st Annual Peanuts Molloy Grand National Celebration Barbecue on Saturday 3pm start.
Apparently his garden is good/good to soft in parts.
Not sure if this has any bearing on the statistical model though.
This is good.
Sorry Peanuts old chum, but a point of order. He said it was "good/good to soft in parts", not "good".
Wouldn't want anything to bugger up your model at this late stage - my holiday depends on it!
;o)
Betting people... make sense of this for me please, its the t&c for the bet365 100% bonus on first deposit:
1) Qualifying deposits must be a minimum of £10*.
2) The maximum bonus that can be claimed is £200*.
3) To bet with your bonus, play through the amount of your qualifying deposit once on the sports and markets of your choice. You will need to rollover your deposit and bonus 3 times prior to making a withdrawal.
4) If the stake rollover requirement for this bonus has not been met within 90 days of the first qualifying deposit any funds held in the bonus balance will be forfeited.
Unless anyone knows of a place offering the same kind of free bets without having to play through to withdraw?
Edit:
Sorry, i'm being a pain... but dont normally bet online.
Betfred seem to be offering matched bets up to £50 - does anyone know if you have to play through x amount of times before you withdraw?
Comments
Another shrewd pick JT. He could run a big one.
Sorry to disappoint ISLS but I haven't even looked at the cards. Recollection is that there always seem to be some good chances to oppose Festival winners.
I can see we'll need to keep you on a tight rein on Saturday Plaaayer. Keep your fingers crossed for good ground.
Plaaayer is right Curb_It, (though if the Foxhunters was won in 5m 5secs the Aintree groundsman would have a heart attack.....and probably so would the horse).
Because they all run off the same weight in the Foxhunters and there is a large field, the winning time is quite a good pointer to the state of the ground as we can make a reasonable comparison with previous years. Of course the ground can change (potentially a lot with rain) before Saturday pm but with fairly dry weather, moderate wind and cloud cover, one could expect it to dry out a bit; unless they panic and turn the taps on of course.
Not all horses would be bothered whether it is Good or Soft but it definitely will affect the chances of some. On Soft it will be much harder for some (eg Ballabriggs, Big Fella Thanks, Golden Kite) to get the trip. On good it will be much harder for some (notably Silver By Nature) to stay in contention at the fast pace that would be virtually certain.
Apologies I'm getting over excited again!
Apparently his garden is good/good to soft in parts.
Not sure if this has any bearing on the statistical model though.
It's on. Just warning you now, if he places my manlove for Peanuts will reach the level of that towards Rufus and Di Canio. If he wins, you're up there with Mendonca mate....
22 Mar 11 / 18:17 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright State Of Play @ 25/1 – £2.26
22 Mar 11 / 16:42 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Oscar Time @ 12/1 – £5.00
22 Mar 11 / 16:42 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Don't Push It @ 16/1 – £10.00
22 Mar 11 / 16:42 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Hello Bud @ 33/1 – £10.00
03 Mar 11 / 17:27 Single (EW) 1 Grand National 2011.AP – Outright Golden Kite @ 50/1 £4.00
Taking he view that the ground has enough juice in it (thankfully no fatalities in the Foxhunters Chase to cause them to panic) such that they don't turn the sprinklers on and that the weather is set fair, the going should not be any softer than Good-to-Soft, Good places on Saturday for the BIg One. Therefore I think it will be too quick for Silver By Nature to make the frame.
Therefore the final recommendations are:
Win Candidates:
Oscar Time – 12/1
State Of Play – 25/1
Hello Bud – 33/1
What A Friend – 12/1
Place Candidates:
Becauseicouldntsee – 25/1
Golden Kite – 66/1
It's the thought that counts. Cheers pal.
He might oblige, you never know. You could always top it up with £2 e/w at 80/1 with VC Bet (5 places).
Yes i done a little each way now.
I like the guaranteed odds at bet365 though.
After 10am on the day...
This is good.
This is not good.
How are we all going to be feeling come 4.30 Saturday afternoon ? Flat or happy. I reckon one thing... no one on here will be giving much thought to whether Charlton are wining or losing!!
Current betfair odds on the above were (an hour or so ago):
Oscar Time – 14
State Of Play – 38
Hello Bud – 70
What A Friend – 14
Becauseicouldntsee – 34
Golden Kite – 120
Sorry Peanuts old chum, but a point of order. He said it was "good/good to soft in parts", not "good".
Wouldn't want anything to bugger up your model at this late stage - my holiday depends on it!
;o)
1) Qualifying deposits must be a minimum of £10*.
2) The maximum bonus that can be claimed is £200*.
3) To bet with your bonus, play through the amount of your qualifying deposit once on the sports and markets of your choice. You will need to rollover your deposit and bonus 3 times prior to making a withdrawal.
4) If the stake rollover requirement for this bonus has not been met within 90 days of the first qualifying deposit any funds held in the bonus balance will be forfeited.
Cheers
However, to actually access the bonus you have to play through your entire deposit once
You will then have to play through your deposit and bonus value three times before making a withdrawal
All this has to be done within 90 days or the bonus pot is gone
If you aren't a (very) regular gambler it's basically a total con unless your deposit is going to be on the lower end of the scale.
I'll just stick with Paddy Power then... Offering a matched bet of a score, without having to play through it a million times to withdraw
Edit:
Sorry, i'm being a pain... but dont normally bet online.
Betfred seem to be offering matched bets up to £50 - does anyone know if you have to play through x amount of times before you withdraw?
Cheers