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Grand National 2011

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  • [cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Yesterday's watering and rain overnight has turned GN course good, good-to-soft places (a fair bit, according to the turftrax map).

    Weather Forecast
    Saturday: 5.5mm overnight, thereafter dry cloudy with sunny spells 13C
    Sunday: Possible rain am with showers and sunny spells 11C
    Monday & Tuesday: Dull and mainly dry, possible showers
    Wednesday onwards mainly dry and warm, sunny spells, possible showers 16C

    So is Silver by nature edging out What a Friend now it's softening up a bit Peanuts?
  • edited April 2011
    [cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]
    So is Silver by nature edging out What a Friend now it's softening up a bit Peanuts?


    No, just good to soft places wouldn't be anywhere near soft enough for Silver By Nature but it does show that, after watering, modest rainfall affects the ground quickly.

    Ideally they aim for it to be good~good to soft (pretty much where it is now) but the decision whether to water is tricky if they have windy-sunny conditions but possibly heavy rain knocking about. They don’t seem to be expecting too much other than showers but metoffice.gov.uk is forecasting heavy showers knocking about in the broader region:

    “Turning very unsettled and quite wet and windy at times. Some heavy rain is likely on Monday and Wednesday, particularly over Cumbria and the Pennines. Mild.” Later in the week: “Unsettled across many northern and western parts of the UK at first, with spells of rain occasionally becoming heavy and persistent”

    Just depends whether they water again and whether Merseyside gets more significant rain than they are expecting. If both happen it could yet go testing but I suspect they will be very cautious about watering again over the next few days.

    As things stand now the ground suits WAF but at the short prices for both WAF and SBN I don't see any point in trying to guess now which of them will be suited by the ground. However, I am keen to see if any bookies offering a decent price (at least 33/1) on Synchronised go NRNB.
  • edited April 2011
    Sadly One Cool Cookie died after breaking a leg on the gallops yesterday.
  • Tragic news. Makes you wonder if it's all worth it.
  • [quote][cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]Tragic news. Makes you wonder if it's all worth it.[/quote]


    Yeah, he could gave just been chewing grass at a gypsy site and lived a couple of years longer.
  • Your knowledge of it all really does amaze me PM! Thank you for sharing.
  • Top, top work Peanuts.

    I've just backed your three "most likely" and will wait with baited breath for any further recommendations depending on the weather.

    Cheers
  • [cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]Your knowledge of it all really does amaze me PM! Thank you for sharing.
    [cite]Posted By: Off_it[/cite]Top, top work Peanuts.

    I've just backed your three "most likely" and will wait with baited breath for any further recommendations depending on the weather.

    Cheers


    Much appreciated. Not sure about knowledge Plaaayer but I'll be delighted (and relieved) if my ruminations turn out not to be complete horse**it next Saturday. Best of luck.
  • edited April 2011
    Midnight Chase is withdrawn

    Edit credited to PM (who else!)
  • Synchronised, among others, scratched despite Jonjo indicating yesterday they would likely leave him in.
    A pity but makes life a little simpler......a reminder not to listen to trainers!
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  • All morning I've been trying to get on Skybet with no joy to have him at 40/1!
  • You lucky chap. I had a little nibble at big prices on Betfair on the strength of Jonjo's comments yesterday......what a mug!
  • Do you get your money back if he's scratched PM?
  • [cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]Do you get your money back if he's scratched PM?
    Not on an ante-post market, which Betfair is until they open a new market on Thursday. With bookies you'd lose your stake unless you had bet NRNB.
    Full defections:
    Midnight Chase - ISLS rocked the market with the scoop on that one ;o)
    Synchronised
    Scotsirish
    Note Pere
    Ballytrim
    Nedzers Return
    Frankie Figg
    One Cool Cookie
    Dev
  • I'm sure you'll thank the trainer for that!

    We've still got Golden Kite then.
  • Yeap, but I should know better than listen to trainers. They talk as much rubbish as the journos.
    Golden Kite still in the line up. You will get your stake back if he misses the cut rather than being scratched.
    All allotted 10-03+ are gteed a run except Royal Rosa (41st).
    Below there are x3 on 10-02, including GK (these 3 will now be ranked by the handicapper to determine their order) so he will definitely be one of the 4 reserves if none come out at Thursday’s declarations and if they leave him in then. Still one or two higher up that look potential scratches.
  • [cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]
    We've still got Golden Kite then.

    Handicapper has made Skippers Brig #42, Golden Kite #43, Always Waining #44.
    GK needs 3 to come out by Saturday morning to get a run. Touch and go though Roll Along is said to be lame so that's one probable withdrawal (Royal Rosa would be in).
    Going after rain today is good to soft, good places. Forecast is for more rain tomorrow morning but dry from then onwards (though the notoriously unreliable BBC weather is forecasting rain knocking about not far from Mersyeside Friday night). Seems likely to be in the good~good to soft range but we should get an idea on the ground from the Foxhunters Chase on Thursday.
  • [quote][cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite][quote][cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]
    We've still got Golden Kite then.[/quote]

    Handicapper has made Skippers Brig #42, Golden Kite #43, Always Waining #44.
    GK needs 3 to come out by Saturday morning to get a run. Touch and go though Roll Along is said to be lame so that's one probable withdrawal (Royal Rosa would be in).
    Going after rain today is good to soft, good places. Forecast is for more rain tomorrow morning but dry from then onwards (though the notoriously unreliable BBC weather is forecasting rain knocking about not far from Mersyeside Friday night). Seems likely to be in the good~good to soft range but we should get an idea on the ground from the Foxhunters Chase on Thursday.[/quote]

    A little off topic but may help, I would always go with Accuweather for any forecast, that site is pretty much spot on altough it is April!!


    When we was on a cruise last year visiting different countries (albeit not far apart) their hour by hour weather was a godsend and spot on.)
  • Cheers CPL, very helpful. They seem to be saying dry all the way after tomorrow for Liverpool, sunny on Saturday.
  • If indeed Accuweather was to be more or less precise would you still reccomend the previous three horses mentioned in


    State Of Play, Hello Bud, and What a Friend?

    Cheers!!!
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  • edited April 2011
    If it is good or good-to-soft (anything without plain "soft" in the description, or heavy obviously) my stat-model says winner most likely to be one of:

    Oscar Time
    State Of Play
    Hello Bud
    What A Friend

    Best place potential of those guaranteed a run - Becauseicouldntsee
  • Comply or die e/w 50/1 watch this space
  • [cite]Posted By: cafcadam[/cite]Comply or die e/w 50/1 watch this space

    Am afraid we are only watching Peanuts Molloy's space... anything else is clogging.

    No pressure Peanuts.
  • State of play
    Ballabriggs
    Character Building
    What a friend

    If the rain comes:
    Bluesea Cracker
    Oscar Time
  • [cite]Posted By: sm[/cite]Peanuts - I fancy Majestic Concorde - Majestic where I buy my red wine and Concorde a red wine grape!

    Good news for you sm. Dermot Weld confirms Majestic Concorde's a definite runner. Save a glass for me.
  • [cite]Posted By: JT[/cite] Ballabriggs

    Now you're just winding me up JT ;o)
  • [cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]If it is good or good-to-soft (anything without plain "soft" in the description, or heavy obviously) my stat-model says winner most likely to be one of:

    Oscar Time
    State Of Play
    Hello Bud
    What A Friend

    Best place potential of those guaranteed a run - Becauseicouldntsee

    ...and Silver by Nature if the going is good to soft right Peanuts?
  • think im gonna have a few quid on Oscar Time.

    heard his name floating about quite a bit lately.
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