[cite]Posted By: Curb_It[/cite]How do you choose an e/w on betfair? I dont like that site... far too complex for simple me.
There's a To Be Placed (4 places for the GN) market that's separate to the WIn market so you don't bet each way on Betfair. Unlike an e/w bet, you can of course bet different stakes for a WIn and a Place, which can be handy.
No, that’s not dimness Curb It……….…..this is dimness bordering on rank stupidity: having already put a red line through two 16/1 joint 2nd favs Niche Market (poor run last GN without excuse) & Quinz (7 year old), I’ll now do so to another two at the head of the market. Boy, am I going to look dumb at 4.25 on 9th April.
The purpose of doing so is not to say that these horses cannot win or to dissuade anyone from backing them. If you fancy them then please don’t let me put you off. You will probably have the last laugh.
As most of you know, I compile a multi-factor statistical model that attempts to assess which runners have the best fit with the profile of the previous winners and closely placed horses (within 10 lengths) in all GNs from 1988 (excluding the Red Marauder calamity race). As before, I will try to explain the model’s most-likely winner shortlist after the next forfeit stage on 22nd March but I thought I should also give some idea as to why some of the strongly fancied runners (that have seemingly completed their preps) have what the model considers to be significant deficiencies as regards GN winning profiles.
Ballabriggs (11 stone / best price 16/1)
A fine racehorse but an awful lot is discounted in his price.
His main statistical deficiency (and it’s a powerful one) is that no horse since 1988 (possibly longer as my database only goes back in detail to then) has won the GN that had not already won or been placed in a class 1 (or equiv) chase at 3 miles+. In fact, all but 2 of the 21 winners had won or been placed in one of the Gold Cup, Hennessy, Welsh, Scottish or Irish Nationals or a class 1 of at least 4 miles. Furthermore, of the 21 horses that have been placed within 10 lengths of those GN winners, only 4 had not won or been placed in a 3 mile+ class 1 chase and, of those 4, 1 was a 3m 3f Becher chase winner (class 2 at the time, now class 1), 1 had won a class 1 over 2.5 miles and 2 had run in less than 6 chases under rules and carried no more than 10st 1lb on the big day. BTW there is a significant sample of runners in these GNs which did not comply with this stat so the rule has been a relatively robust one to date.
Ballabriggs has never competed in a class 1 over any distance in his 12 chases to date. Of course, that does not mean that he cannot win one at the first time of asking but the way he only just made it home in front in the 3m1f Kim Muir at last year’s Festival (admittedly a fine performance in itself under top weight) didn’t suggest he’s a shoe-in to do so first time over 4.5 miles.
His profile looks very much like Cloudy Lane’s - same owner and trainer, also a Kim Muir winner and a similarly fine horse but, according to the stats, the market’s expectations are too high. We’ll see if, unlike Cloudy Lane (6th in the 2008 GN), Ballabriggs has the stamina for the GN, though nothing that his elder, full-brother Letterman has done would suggest it’s in his immediate family.
Backstage (10st 12lbs / best price 16/1)
Sorry about this GRAY9 - would have loved it if he’d ticked the boxes.
Gordon Elliot is a smart trainer and Backstage is a good racehorse but the low-key campaign he’s had this season, no doubt best for the horse to preserve his handicap and given his preference for good ground, leaves him short in terms of a GN winning profile.
Elliot has followed the same “out of the box” path with Backstage that he took with Silver Birch prior to GN victory in 2007 and the fact that the bookies shortened him after his recent point-to-point win seems to indicate that the market thinks he must have a comparable chance - but there is quite a difference between the respective strength of their campaigns and their other credentials.
SB was a close 2nd to a top class X-Country specialist in the Festival X-C over c.4 miles in his final GN prep, having performed well in all 3 other races under rules that season, commencing in early December. Backstage showed little in 4 races under rules last summer when ground conditions suited him (PU 5 7 10), since when he’s competed in just 2 point-to-points over 3 miles, winning both against lesser quality horses at level weights. So no chance to remedy the same deficiency exhibited by Ballabriggs: yet to win or be placed in a class 1 chase at 3 miles+.
SB was a previous Welsh National and Becher Chase winner (both races having good correlations with GN success). Backstage ran respectably into 8th in the Foxhunter Chase over the GN fences 2 years ago and was going nicely when unluckily brought down (the record book says UR but that’s unfair) in last year’s GN - but he was still 10 fences from home. There is an awful lot presumed in his current price about how he would have finished that race and the fact that the furthest trip over which he’s ever won is 3.25 miles (class 2 chase, admittedly a good performance) must raise at least some doubt as to his making the frame. Indeed his win & place ratio in all chases is a poor 31%, another negative since 40%~82% is the range for the last 21 GN winners (SB’s was 69%). Given that he likes the GN fences, Backstage may run well for a long way as he promised to last year, but the stats suggest there should be no cigar.
Finally, 255 days since his last race under rules would be a highly abnormal stat for a GN winner (max 49 days since 1988), though Mely Moss did run Papillon very close in the 2000 GN when having his first race under rules for 345 days (though he was carrying 10st 1lb and had a 100% win & place record in his 3 prior chases in Britain).
Of course, he’s now bound to romp home, touching off Ballabriggs and Niche Market, so keep hold of that betting slip GRAY9.
Recommendations of a more positive nature after the Festival.
Notre Pere and Golden Kite both running in a handicap hurdle at Navan at 4.10pm.
Crucial prep race for both of them, at least as regards their stats.
Edit
Hmm, Notre Pere seems schizophrenic these days and was very poor given that he should have been able to handle the soft ground and was off a lowish mark over hurdles. Was held up but didn’t travel particularly well and was well adrift a long way from home, finishing a remote 11th. Cooks his goose as regards GN win stats though his overall record, including a respectable run in the Becher Chase in November, still gives him place potential but you’d need “the other Notre Pere” to turn up.
Golden Kite needs much better ground than the soft~heavy today and travelled well with the leaders for a reasonable way before the pace was upped and the going took its toll, finishing a well detached 9th. On that showing, even allowing for the going, he doesn’t make it onto the Win shortlist but he is one of several with place potential in the GN, if Maguire and owner decide to take him there and if he gets his preferred decent ground. If you got your £2 on him at 590 on Betfair to win don’t despair, he could give you a buzz for a while on 9th April – just don’t add to it!
OK, it’s time to attempt the annual cashectomy upon Paddy and Victor.
Just to re-cap for newcomers, many punters successfully employ stats to make their GN selections. Over the past few years, I’ve developed a statistical model which seeks to identify those horses which have the best fit with the profiles of the winners of all GNs since 1988 (excluding the Red Marauder GN) and horses placed within 10 lengths of them, as with a bit of luck here or there they could easily have won.
Importantly, the model does not demand that in every respect the stats of the selections conform to the data ranges exhibited in the profiles of the 43 horses in the database. It does not operate as a process of elimination, so no single negative stat is sufficient to be a red-line – e.g. it is possible even for a 7 year-old or the top-weight to have sufficient compensating attributes to make them a Winning Candidate.
Rather, it scores positive and negative marks of differing degrees in accordance with a range of stats for each horse’s chasing career on British and Irish racetracks (age, weight, number and class of wins/close placings, success in major 3 mile+ chases, on different types of going, win & place to run ratios, record at extreme trips, in large fields, at certain racecourses, recent quality of performance, falls/URs, number of season’s runs, days since last run, etc…).
The model has been reasonably successful over the past 5 GNs (4 winners and 6 places) but, after each, it is “tweaked” to account for anomalies, the new version being back-tested against previous GNs to ensure consistency of results.
It is a % game. Of course the model cannot predict how the race will unfold, whether a horse will get unlucky, not take to the fences or simply not be right on the day, hence the need for a “portfolio” of selections. One thing can be guaranteed however: it will have a complete failure sometime, maybe this year. Sincere apologies in advance if you decide to follow my tips and this is the year it crashes and burns.
Enough of the disclaimer. The model has been tweaked in respect of last year, when Black Apalachi and State of Play so rudely interrupted its selections of 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th and, with the latest forfeit stage now gone, the stats have been crunched for all likely contenders (look like those allotted below 10-03 may miss out).
Going is relevant to the selections this year, not least as two will run only if the ground suits. Also, unlike previous years at this stage, sadly no outstanding long-shots have made it onto the shortlist. If you bet each way (at the prices below and on a scaled basis, 1 place should still return around 2/3 of the total stake for the 4 good ground or 5 soft ground selections) look for at least 5 places (e.g. Paddy Power, VC, Bet365, Boylesports). From now, many bookies start to quote Non-Runner-No-Bet.
So, without further ado, my model indicates that the winner of the 2011 GN should be one of the following (in no particular order):
Any Going:
Oscar Time – 12/1
State Of Play – 25/1
Hello Bud – 33/1
If Good add:
What A Friend (likely will run only if good ground) – 14/1
If Soft or softer add:
Synchronised (likely will run only if soft) – 33~50/1 but not NRNB
Silver By Nature – 16/1
• Close 2nd in the Irish National a year ago on heavy (3 GN winners since 1999 had won or been close 2nd in Irish National) – only race to date at 3.5 miles+
• Decent in 3 runs this season, latest a level weights 3rd (5 lengths) in the 3 mile Bobbyjo Chase to current GN favourite The Midnight Club (OT will receive 4lbs from him in GN though this not a factor for the model)
• 90% win & place ratio from 10 chases (GN winners’ range 40-82%)
• No significant negative stats though yet to experience the GN fences
• Amateur jockey (Sam Waley-Cohen) not a concern (Gold Cup-winner and winner over GN fences). An amateur rode the GN winner as recently as 1990
• Reasonably versatile as regards going - won the 2009 3 mile Paddy Power chase on yielding. OT would be first son of Oscar to win the GN and there is a question-mark over the extreme-stamina of Oscar progeny, though OT’s damsire was Supreme Leader (sire of two GN runner-ups). Genuine good to soft would probably be ideal for first attempt at 4.5 miles.
State Of Play - age 11, weight 10-06
• Followed up 4th in 2009 GN with 3rd in fast-run 2010 GN on good, good to soft places. Official goings need to treated with extreme caution but bald fact is that last year SOP clocked a time that would have won him all 5 of the previous GNs to be run on the same or quicker ground
• Will carry 5lbs less this year (10-06) as the handicapper continues to compress the handicap, this time seeking to give Don’t Push It a chance of back-to-back wins. On paper the 10lb relative weight drop for SOP wouldn’t be enough to reverse places with DPI but he is very well treated relative to all those finishing behind him last year. If my model is correct that DPI’s current-season stats are not good enough for him to win as top-weight, the weight compression may, ironically, now help produce the most lightly-weighted winner since 2002
• In one respect SOP will be a stat-buster if he wins because this will be his first run of the season (max 49 days since last run for last 22 GN winners), though Mely Moss ran Papillon very close (1.25L) in 2000 after a 345 day gap. SOP’s long break is not due to injury but because he goes best when fresh. The model penalises the absence but there is enough elsewhere in his profile to compensate
• Won 2006 Hennessy on soft (3 GN winners since 1988 had won or been placed in the Hennessy – latest Comply Or Die)
• Close 2nd (2007) and winner (2008) of the Charlie Hall Chase, both on good to firm, demonstrating versatility as regards going. Significantly, the strong Hennessy and Charlie Hall runs were all seasonal debuts
• Age not a major concern, even though all of the last 6 GN winners were younger. 7 of the last 22 winners were 11 or older and SOP has low mileage on the clock with only 16 career chases (9 yr-old Mon Mome had run in 24 prior to winning in 2009)
Hello Bud - age 13, weight 10-05
• Also a stat-buster if he were to win because the last 13 year old to win the GN was in 1923, though the sample of 13 year-old runners since 1988 is small. The model penalises 12 year olds and older but HB has enough elsewhere to compensate
• 5th (35L) in 2010 GN carrying 10-06 - a fine run, in touch for a long way with the leaders at a fast pace
• Won Becher Chase over GN fences in November on soft. In the last 7 GNs, 2 Becher Chase winners have won and 2 have finished close 2nd (5L or less)
• 2009 Scottish National winner on good (making all), demonstrating going versatility, though at his age he would probably prefer it on the soft side of good
• Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (twice GN-winning trainer)
What A Friend (likely to run only if ground is good) - age 8, weight 11-06
• Part-owned by Alex Ferguson – somehow resisted temptation to make having a git as owner a red-line stat ;o)
• Won or closely placed in 67% of chases at 3 miles+, including close 2nd in 2009 Hennessy (good correlation to GN, as noted above)
• Dual Grade 1 chase winner at 3miles+ on soft and good ground but most effective on decent ground and likely will only run if going is good or thereabouts
• Prone to a high head carriage and to wander in last furlong but, with first-time blinkers, ran very well in Gold Cup to finish 4th (11L behind Long Run), travelling nicely all the way and staying on well (no wandering)
• Post-GC the handicapper has raised WAF so in GN he is theoretically 15lbs well in. No impact on the model, as it refers to relative marks only in context of 4.5 mile form but has prompted WAF’s price to fall from 25/1 pre-revised ratings (50/1 a month ago). Could go off favourite but model scores WAF no higher than other selections
• Blinkers likely to be applied again in GN (Comply Or Die won GN in blinkers). Yet to experience GN fences - not out of the question that doing so wearing blinkers for only the second time might be unsettling (Black Apalachi fell at 2nd fence in 2008 wearing a visor for the first time) but no F/UR from 10 chases to date
• Unraced at 3.5 miles+, sire Alflora not known for staying progeny but staying credentials on WAF’s dam’s side and was not stopping up the Cheltenham hill
Synchronised (likely to run only if ground is soft or softer) - age 8, weight 11-06
• Won or placed in all 3 chases at 3.75 miles+
• Winner of Welsh National carrying 11-06 on soft in January (6 GN winners since 1988 had won or been placed in Welsh National) and of Midlands National last year on heavy, showing stamina in abundance
• 3rd in 2011 Midlands National on Saturday (12L 3rd) on good to soft showed speed limitations on better ground and required superb ride from McCoy to bring him back to challenge leader in the home straight
• Jockey booking in doubt since McCoy likely to ride Don’t Push It unless ground clearly in favour of Synchronised
• Weight is a slight negative but there is enough elsewhere to compensate
• Yet to experience GN fences but no F/UR in 6 chases
Silver By Nature (Win Candidate on soft or softer) - age 9, weight 10-12
• Close 2nd (0.75L) in 2009 Welsh National (strong correlation to GN as noted above) on heavy and not disgraced when lumping top-weight into 7th (25L) a year later on soft (giving Synchronised 6lbs – 14lb reversal for GN)
• That was his only failure to make the frame in 4 chases at 3.5 miles+, which include emphatic back-to-back wins in Grand National Trial at Haydock, both on heavy, most recently in February – providing evidence of well-being but, despite the name, this race has no recent correlation to GN success
• Certainly most effective on soft or heavy going but belief that he would be a lost cause if ground not soft~heavy may be a little overstated - the progeny of his damsire (Strong Gale) have generally preferred top of the ground. However the fast-pace of a genuine good ground GN would likely limit him to minor place potential at best
• No significant negative stats but yet to experience the GN fences
• Would be the first Scottish-trained winner since 1982 and the first grey since 1961 – neither are relevant stats for the model
Good luck ladies and gents. Let’s hope all 40 runners and riders come back safe and sound.
Can I ask a couple of questions
how many further runners do you think will come out?
When does it go Non Runner no Bet?
Last year number 50 at this stage got to run (Royal Rosa) but he and another were kind of fiddled into the line up because the owners took out 2 abovee them to give them a run so really it was number 48 that was the last to get in. So 8 were genuinely scratched from those that could have lined up.
On that basis the cut this year would come so as to include all or maybe all but one of those on 10-03. Of course could be fewer or more that come out. Synchronised's participation must be looking doubtful given the weather forecast though there is the possibility of heavy rain early April apparently.
I think Stan James went NRNB yesterday and Bet365 is offering NRNB aswell. They all tend to from around this week.
PM, i am not a gambler, nor am i particularly interested in horse racing, but i yearly follow this thread and your contributions to it with absolute fascination.
All i can say is thank you for sharing it with us, and i hope you (once again) have a cash positive day, though i suspect your interest in this is primarily personal enjoyment in trying to devise a model that works rather than making money out of the race.
Thanks Peanuts. Just out of interest, when did the same jockey win the Gold Cup and the National in the same year, and has that ever been done by an amateur? Hvaing seen him romp home in the Gold Cup I have every confidence.
[cite]Posted By: Curb_It[/cite]Quote: If Good add:
What A Friend (likely will run only if good ground) – 14/1
If Soft or softer add:
Synchronised (likely will run only if soft) – 33~50/1 but not NRNB
Silver By Nature – 16/1
Peanuts - do we hold off on betting on these and just go for the first three at the moment?
At the moment, it's not looking like it will be soft enough for Synchronised to run or for Silver By Nature to have a winning chance (according to my model) and SBN is likely to run regardless as they will water the track to make sure it doesn't get too fast. So I would definitely hold off backing him and look at the going and forecast early April.
I think What A Friend will only get shorter in price when the media give it a big serve so I would back that NRNB.
Synchronised's price is all over the place. The huge prices won;t be NRNB (nor is Betfair) so I would wait until more bookies are offering NRNB.
Must be highly unlikely that he and WAF will run in the same GN given their going prefs.
[cite]Posted By: Heath Hero[/cite]Thanks Peanuts. Just out of interest, when did the same jockey win the Gold Cup and the National in the same year, and has that ever been done by an amateur? Hvaing seen him romp home in the Gold Cup I have every confidence.
Not sure if it's ever been done to be honest. Do you know?
Comments
There's a To Be Placed (4 places for the GN) market that's separate to the WIn market so you don't bet each way on Betfair. Unlike an e/w bet, you can of course bet different stakes for a WIn and a Place, which can be handy.
1 on the win market and 1 on the place market (will probably show up as 'grand national TBP')
The purpose of doing so is not to say that these horses cannot win or to dissuade anyone from backing them. If you fancy them then please don’t let me put you off. You will probably have the last laugh.
As most of you know, I compile a multi-factor statistical model that attempts to assess which runners have the best fit with the profile of the previous winners and closely placed horses (within 10 lengths) in all GNs from 1988 (excluding the Red Marauder calamity race). As before, I will try to explain the model’s most-likely winner shortlist after the next forfeit stage on 22nd March but I thought I should also give some idea as to why some of the strongly fancied runners (that have seemingly completed their preps) have what the model considers to be significant deficiencies as regards GN winning profiles.
Ballabriggs (11 stone / best price 16/1)
A fine racehorse but an awful lot is discounted in his price.
His main statistical deficiency (and it’s a powerful one) is that no horse since 1988 (possibly longer as my database only goes back in detail to then) has won the GN that had not already won or been placed in a class 1 (or equiv) chase at 3 miles+. In fact, all but 2 of the 21 winners had won or been placed in one of the Gold Cup, Hennessy, Welsh, Scottish or Irish Nationals or a class 1 of at least 4 miles. Furthermore, of the 21 horses that have been placed within 10 lengths of those GN winners, only 4 had not won or been placed in a 3 mile+ class 1 chase and, of those 4, 1 was a 3m 3f Becher chase winner (class 2 at the time, now class 1), 1 had won a class 1 over 2.5 miles and 2 had run in less than 6 chases under rules and carried no more than 10st 1lb on the big day. BTW there is a significant sample of runners in these GNs which did not comply with this stat so the rule has been a relatively robust one to date.
Ballabriggs has never competed in a class 1 over any distance in his 12 chases to date. Of course, that does not mean that he cannot win one at the first time of asking but the way he only just made it home in front in the 3m1f Kim Muir at last year’s Festival (admittedly a fine performance in itself under top weight) didn’t suggest he’s a shoe-in to do so first time over 4.5 miles.
His profile looks very much like Cloudy Lane’s - same owner and trainer, also a Kim Muir winner and a similarly fine horse but, according to the stats, the market’s expectations are too high. We’ll see if, unlike Cloudy Lane (6th in the 2008 GN), Ballabriggs has the stamina for the GN, though nothing that his elder, full-brother Letterman has done would suggest it’s in his immediate family.
Backstage (10st 12lbs / best price 16/1)
Sorry about this GRAY9 - would have loved it if he’d ticked the boxes.
Gordon Elliot is a smart trainer and Backstage is a good racehorse but the low-key campaign he’s had this season, no doubt best for the horse to preserve his handicap and given his preference for good ground, leaves him short in terms of a GN winning profile.
Elliot has followed the same “out of the box” path with Backstage that he took with Silver Birch prior to GN victory in 2007 and the fact that the bookies shortened him after his recent point-to-point win seems to indicate that the market thinks he must have a comparable chance - but there is quite a difference between the respective strength of their campaigns and their other credentials.
SB was a close 2nd to a top class X-Country specialist in the Festival X-C over c.4 miles in his final GN prep, having performed well in all 3 other races under rules that season, commencing in early December. Backstage showed little in 4 races under rules last summer when ground conditions suited him (PU 5 7 10), since when he’s competed in just 2 point-to-points over 3 miles, winning both against lesser quality horses at level weights. So no chance to remedy the same deficiency exhibited by Ballabriggs: yet to win or be placed in a class 1 chase at 3 miles+.
SB was a previous Welsh National and Becher Chase winner (both races having good correlations with GN success). Backstage ran respectably into 8th in the Foxhunter Chase over the GN fences 2 years ago and was going nicely when unluckily brought down (the record book says UR but that’s unfair) in last year’s GN - but he was still 10 fences from home. There is an awful lot presumed in his current price about how he would have finished that race and the fact that the furthest trip over which he’s ever won is 3.25 miles (class 2 chase, admittedly a good performance) must raise at least some doubt as to his making the frame. Indeed his win & place ratio in all chases is a poor 31%, another negative since 40%~82% is the range for the last 21 GN winners (SB’s was 69%). Given that he likes the GN fences, Backstage may run well for a long way as he promised to last year, but the stats suggest there should be no cigar.
Finally, 255 days since his last race under rules would be a highly abnormal stat for a GN winner (max 49 days since 1988), though Mely Moss did run Papillon very close in the 2000 GN when having his first race under rules for 345 days (though he was carrying 10st 1lb and had a 100% win & place record in his 3 prior chases in Britain).
Of course, he’s now bound to romp home, touching off Ballabriggs and Niche Market, so keep hold of that betting slip GRAY9.
Recommendations of a more positive nature after the Festival.
(Is this the wrong thread?)
You backing State of Play again this time JT? Handicapper's given him a serious chance at the weights.
Crucial prep race for both of them, at least as regards their stats.
Edit
Hmm, Notre Pere seems schizophrenic these days and was very poor given that he should have been able to handle the soft ground and was off a lowish mark over hurdles. Was held up but didn’t travel particularly well and was well adrift a long way from home, finishing a remote 11th. Cooks his goose as regards GN win stats though his overall record, including a respectable run in the Becher Chase in November, still gives him place potential but you’d need “the other Notre Pere” to turn up.
Golden Kite needs much better ground than the soft~heavy today and travelled well with the leaders for a reasonable way before the pace was upped and the going took its toll, finishing a well detached 9th. On that showing, even allowing for the going, he doesn’t make it onto the Win shortlist but he is one of several with place potential in the GN, if Maguire and owner decide to take him there and if he gets his preferred decent ground. If you got your £2 on him at 590 on Betfair to win don’t despair, he could give you a buzz for a while on 9th April – just don’t add to it!
Just to re-cap for newcomers, many punters successfully employ stats to make their GN selections. Over the past few years, I’ve developed a statistical model which seeks to identify those horses which have the best fit with the profiles of the winners of all GNs since 1988 (excluding the Red Marauder GN) and horses placed within 10 lengths of them, as with a bit of luck here or there they could easily have won.
Importantly, the model does not demand that in every respect the stats of the selections conform to the data ranges exhibited in the profiles of the 43 horses in the database. It does not operate as a process of elimination, so no single negative stat is sufficient to be a red-line – e.g. it is possible even for a 7 year-old or the top-weight to have sufficient compensating attributes to make them a Winning Candidate.
Rather, it scores positive and negative marks of differing degrees in accordance with a range of stats for each horse’s chasing career on British and Irish racetracks (age, weight, number and class of wins/close placings, success in major 3 mile+ chases, on different types of going, win & place to run ratios, record at extreme trips, in large fields, at certain racecourses, recent quality of performance, falls/URs, number of season’s runs, days since last run, etc…).
The model has been reasonably successful over the past 5 GNs (4 winners and 6 places) but, after each, it is “tweaked” to account for anomalies, the new version being back-tested against previous GNs to ensure consistency of results.
It is a % game. Of course the model cannot predict how the race will unfold, whether a horse will get unlucky, not take to the fences or simply not be right on the day, hence the need for a “portfolio” of selections. One thing can be guaranteed however: it will have a complete failure sometime, maybe this year. Sincere apologies in advance if you decide to follow my tips and this is the year it crashes and burns.
Enough of the disclaimer. The model has been tweaked in respect of last year, when Black Apalachi and State of Play so rudely interrupted its selections of 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th and, with the latest forfeit stage now gone, the stats have been crunched for all likely contenders (look like those allotted below 10-03 may miss out).
Going is relevant to the selections this year, not least as two will run only if the ground suits. Also, unlike previous years at this stage, sadly no outstanding long-shots have made it onto the shortlist. If you bet each way (at the prices below and on a scaled basis, 1 place should still return around 2/3 of the total stake for the 4 good ground or 5 soft ground selections) look for at least 5 places (e.g. Paddy Power, VC, Bet365, Boylesports). From now, many bookies start to quote Non-Runner-No-Bet.
So, without further ado, my model indicates that the winner of the 2011 GN should be one of the following (in no particular order):
Any Going:
Oscar Time – 12/1
State Of Play – 25/1
Hello Bud – 33/1
If Good add:
What A Friend (likely will run only if good ground) – 14/1
If Soft or softer add:
Synchronised (likely will run only if soft) – 33~50/1 but not NRNB
Silver By Nature – 16/1
Details of candidates coming shortly.
Oscar Time - age 10, weight 10-09
• Close 2nd in the Irish National a year ago on heavy (3 GN winners since 1999 had won or been close 2nd in Irish National) – only race to date at 3.5 miles+
• Decent in 3 runs this season, latest a level weights 3rd (5 lengths) in the 3 mile Bobbyjo Chase to current GN favourite The Midnight Club (OT will receive 4lbs from him in GN though this not a factor for the model)
• 90% win & place ratio from 10 chases (GN winners’ range 40-82%)
• No significant negative stats though yet to experience the GN fences
• Amateur jockey (Sam Waley-Cohen) not a concern (Gold Cup-winner and winner over GN fences). An amateur rode the GN winner as recently as 1990
• Reasonably versatile as regards going - won the 2009 3 mile Paddy Power chase on yielding. OT would be first son of Oscar to win the GN and there is a question-mark over the extreme-stamina of Oscar progeny, though OT’s damsire was Supreme Leader (sire of two GN runner-ups). Genuine good to soft would probably be ideal for first attempt at 4.5 miles.
State Of Play - age 11, weight 10-06
• Followed up 4th in 2009 GN with 3rd in fast-run 2010 GN on good, good to soft places. Official goings need to treated with extreme caution but bald fact is that last year SOP clocked a time that would have won him all 5 of the previous GNs to be run on the same or quicker ground
• Will carry 5lbs less this year (10-06) as the handicapper continues to compress the handicap, this time seeking to give Don’t Push It a chance of back-to-back wins. On paper the 10lb relative weight drop for SOP wouldn’t be enough to reverse places with DPI but he is very well treated relative to all those finishing behind him last year. If my model is correct that DPI’s current-season stats are not good enough for him to win as top-weight, the weight compression may, ironically, now help produce the most lightly-weighted winner since 2002
• In one respect SOP will be a stat-buster if he wins because this will be his first run of the season (max 49 days since last run for last 22 GN winners), though Mely Moss ran Papillon very close (1.25L) in 2000 after a 345 day gap. SOP’s long break is not due to injury but because he goes best when fresh. The model penalises the absence but there is enough elsewhere in his profile to compensate
• Won 2006 Hennessy on soft (3 GN winners since 1988 had won or been placed in the Hennessy – latest Comply Or Die)
• Close 2nd (2007) and winner (2008) of the Charlie Hall Chase, both on good to firm, demonstrating versatility as regards going. Significantly, the strong Hennessy and Charlie Hall runs were all seasonal debuts
• Age not a major concern, even though all of the last 6 GN winners were younger. 7 of the last 22 winners were 11 or older and SOP has low mileage on the clock with only 16 career chases (9 yr-old Mon Mome had run in 24 prior to winning in 2009)
Hello Bud - age 13, weight 10-05
• Also a stat-buster if he were to win because the last 13 year old to win the GN was in 1923, though the sample of 13 year-old runners since 1988 is small. The model penalises 12 year olds and older but HB has enough elsewhere to compensate
• 5th (35L) in 2010 GN carrying 10-06 - a fine run, in touch for a long way with the leaders at a fast pace
• Won Becher Chase over GN fences in November on soft. In the last 7 GNs, 2 Becher Chase winners have won and 2 have finished close 2nd (5L or less)
• 2009 Scottish National winner on good (making all), demonstrating going versatility, though at his age he would probably prefer it on the soft side of good
• Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (twice GN-winning trainer)
What A Friend (likely to run only if ground is good) - age 8, weight 11-06
• Part-owned by Alex Ferguson – somehow resisted temptation to make having a git as owner a red-line stat ;o)
• Won or closely placed in 67% of chases at 3 miles+, including close 2nd in 2009 Hennessy (good correlation to GN, as noted above)
• Dual Grade 1 chase winner at 3miles+ on soft and good ground but most effective on decent ground and likely will only run if going is good or thereabouts
• Prone to a high head carriage and to wander in last furlong but, with first-time blinkers, ran very well in Gold Cup to finish 4th (11L behind Long Run), travelling nicely all the way and staying on well (no wandering)
• Post-GC the handicapper has raised WAF so in GN he is theoretically 15lbs well in. No impact on the model, as it refers to relative marks only in context of 4.5 mile form but has prompted WAF’s price to fall from 25/1 pre-revised ratings (50/1 a month ago). Could go off favourite but model scores WAF no higher than other selections
• Blinkers likely to be applied again in GN (Comply Or Die won GN in blinkers). Yet to experience GN fences - not out of the question that doing so wearing blinkers for only the second time might be unsettling (Black Apalachi fell at 2nd fence in 2008 wearing a visor for the first time) but no F/UR from 10 chases to date
• Unraced at 3.5 miles+, sire Alflora not known for staying progeny but staying credentials on WAF’s dam’s side and was not stopping up the Cheltenham hill
Synchronised (likely to run only if ground is soft or softer) - age 8, weight 11-06
• Won or placed in all 3 chases at 3.75 miles+
• Winner of Welsh National carrying 11-06 on soft in January (6 GN winners since 1988 had won or been placed in Welsh National) and of Midlands National last year on heavy, showing stamina in abundance
• 3rd in 2011 Midlands National on Saturday (12L 3rd) on good to soft showed speed limitations on better ground and required superb ride from McCoy to bring him back to challenge leader in the home straight
• Jockey booking in doubt since McCoy likely to ride Don’t Push It unless ground clearly in favour of Synchronised
• Weight is a slight negative but there is enough elsewhere to compensate
• Yet to experience GN fences but no F/UR in 6 chases
Silver By Nature (Win Candidate on soft or softer) - age 9, weight 10-12
• Close 2nd (0.75L) in 2009 Welsh National (strong correlation to GN as noted above) on heavy and not disgraced when lumping top-weight into 7th (25L) a year later on soft (giving Synchronised 6lbs – 14lb reversal for GN)
• That was his only failure to make the frame in 4 chases at 3.5 miles+, which include emphatic back-to-back wins in Grand National Trial at Haydock, both on heavy, most recently in February – providing evidence of well-being but, despite the name, this race has no recent correlation to GN success
• Certainly most effective on soft or heavy going but belief that he would be a lost cause if ground not soft~heavy may be a little overstated - the progeny of his damsire (Strong Gale) have generally preferred top of the ground. However the fast-pace of a genuine good ground GN would likely limit him to minor place potential at best
• No significant negative stats but yet to experience the GN fences
• Would be the first Scottish-trained winner since 1982 and the first grey since 1961 – neither are relevant stats for the model
Good luck ladies and gents. Let’s hope all 40 runners and riders come back safe and sound.
I'll second that!
Can I ask a couple of questions
how many further runners do you think will come out?
When does it go Non Runner no Bet?
Thought you might - you'll be on him again?
Too kind but proof of the pudding is in the eating. There's plenty of fine horses in competition.
Mick Fitz is very keen on him. That's enough for me after last week.
Last year number 50 at this stage got to run (Royal Rosa) but he and another were kind of fiddled into the line up because the owners took out 2 abovee them to give them a run so really it was number 48 that was the last to get in. So 8 were genuinely scratched from those that could have lined up.
On that basis the cut this year would come so as to include all or maybe all but one of those on 10-03. Of course could be fewer or more that come out. Synchronised's participation must be looking doubtful given the weather forecast though there is the possibility of heavy rain early April apparently.
I think Stan James went NRNB yesterday and Bet365 is offering NRNB aswell. They all tend to from around this week.
All i can say is thank you for sharing it with us, and i hope you (once again) have a cash positive day, though i suspect your interest in this is primarily personal enjoyment in trying to devise a model that works rather than making money out of the race.
What A Friend (likely will run only if good ground) – 14/1
If Soft or softer add:
Synchronised (likely will run only if soft) – 33~50/1 but not NRNB
Silver By Nature – 16/1
Peanuts - do we hold off on betting on these and just go for the first three at the moment?
At the moment, it's not looking like it will be soft enough for Synchronised to run or for Silver By Nature to have a winning chance (according to my model) and SBN is likely to run regardless as they will water the track to make sure it doesn't get too fast. So I would definitely hold off backing him and look at the going and forecast early April.
I think What A Friend will only get shorter in price when the media give it a big serve so I would back that NRNB.
Synchronised's price is all over the place. The huge prices won;t be NRNB (nor is Betfair) so I would wait until more bookies are offering NRNB.
Must be highly unlikely that he and WAF will run in the same GN given their going prefs.
Not sure if it's ever been done to be honest. Do you know?