[cite]Posted By: AFKABartram[/cite]PM, i am not a gambler, nor am i particularly interested in horse racing, but i yearly follow this thread and your contributions to it with absolute fascination.
All i can say is thank you for sharing it with us, and i hope you (once again) have a cash positive day, though i suspect your interest in this is primarily personal enjoyment in trying to devise a model that works rather than making money out of the race.
I know Golden Miller won both in the same season in the 30's but don't know about the jockey. We have our champagne in the Golden Miller bar after racing at Cheltenham.
[cite]Posted By: allez les addicks[/cite]Cheers for the tips Peanuts, how's Golden Kite looking? Is it likely to run?
He didn't do well enough in his prep (on unsuitably testing ground) for my model to give him a winning chance but he's one of four (with Character Building, Becauseicouldntsee and Big Fella Thanks) which on good ground it rates as being very capable of grabbing a place (other than the Win Candidates obviously).
I still have a small long price win bet on him on Betfair and have added a place position as its such a blast having a real long-shot in the team. Not certain that the owner and trainer will choose Aintree or Fairyhouse for him (he must have good ground) and in any event he may not make the line up (touch and go after yesterday's forfeit stage).
I notice on Betfair that someone has been trying to get a decent sum on him for a while (win and place) at very big prices (maybe the stable lads or a pal of connections?). His win price has been hit (I assume not only by Charlton Lifers!) so that at the moment 80 is the best offer but he is still offered at 30 on the place market (4 places), which seems to me to be a interesting bet, maybe as a complement to your £2 win bet (don't go too big though). He is 66/1 with the bookies.
The risk with Betfair is that the owner/trainer scratch him for any reason (in which case the stake is lost). If he is declared but doesn't make the line up because the cut comes higher the bet is void.
Interesting read PM. I think I'll be following the tips along with the rest of CL.
Do you do level stakes on all your selections?
Good luck! I'm still not ripping up my slip on Backstage though (only because I did it online and not in a shop otherwise it would be straight in the bin)
yeh, I put £2 on him TBP at 36s when I did the win bet - with odds like that, if I didn't and only put on the win I know he'd finish in 2nd and I'd kick myself if I hadn't!
Agree with you totally about it being a blast -you've got to love a long odds house. I had £3 each way on At First Sight in the Derby last year purely because he had such long odds (100-1) compared to the others about five minutes from the start (I have no knowledge compared to guys like you and was bored revising so figured it'd give me an interesting 5 minutes of procrastination). I know you said you're mainly a jumps man but if you remember he was pacemaker and only got overtaken about 100m from the end, so I was going crazy throughout the race! Certainly makes the result all the more satisfying and the race more tense/enjoyable knowing you're backing an outsider, sort of similar to being a Charlton fan in that it's shit or bust and 9 times out of 10 you're bust....
[cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]Interesting read PM. I think I'll be following the tips along with the rest of CL.
Do you do level stakes on all your selections?
Cheers GRAY9,
Generally I do them each way and scale them so that, more or less, I am indifferent as to which one scores. You probably won't be surprised to hear that I need a spreadsheet to calculate how to scale them using either bookies or Betfair.
However, got to confess that I'm well and truely cheesed off with What A Friend because he was on my radar screen back when he was 50/1 but I didn;t back him then because of the liklihood that he would not run (obviously the Gold Cup 4th and the handicapper's repsonse changed that). All the others I got earlier at sensible prices but WAF's now 11/1 and I reckon he may well go off single-digit favourite because of the media bandwagon so I've decided that I would only back him to win (got 12/1 NRNB) as I'd rather keep a higher potential profit margin and take the chance that if he deosn't win he doesn't get a place either, at the expense of one of the others (I have a feeling that he'll either run very well or be a major disappointment as GN favs often have been).
[cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite] I'm still not ripping up my slip on Backstage though (only because I did it online and not in a shop otherwise it would be straight in the bin)
Very sensible - he may not have the stats according to my model but Elliott is no mug. Best of luck.
[cite]Posted By: allez les addicks[/cite]yeh, I put £2 on him TBP at 36s when I did the win bet - with odds like that, if I didn't and only put on the win I know he'd finish in 2nd and I'd kick myself if I hadn't!
Agree with you totally about it being a blast -you've got to love a long odds house. I had £3 each way on At First Sight in the Derby last year purely because he had such long odds (100-1) compared to the others about five minutes from the start (I have no knowledge compared to guys like you and was bored revising so figured it'd give me an interesting 5 minutes of procrastination). I know you said you're mainly a jumps man but if you remember he was pacemaker and only got overtaken about 100m from the end, so I was going crazy throughout the race! Certainly makes the result all the more satisfying and the race more tense/enjoyable knowing you're backing an outsider, sort of similar to being a Charlton fan in that it's shit or bust and 9 times out of 10 you're bust....
LOL, absolutely. Let's hope Golden Kite gives us a buzz for a while. Nice if he did as well as your fellow in the Debry. Fingers crossed.
[cite]Posted By: Elthamaddick[/cite]Peanuts - some great stats there and I always follow this thread with great interest.....will once again this year be utilising your tips
nice one.
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Very interesting as usual PM!
I'll probably stick with Hello Bud and State of Play after they served me well last year... Oscar Time would be some story for SWC.
Good luck to all, especially Peanuts who every year cites impending doom yet sidesteps it perfectly!
Cheers chaps. Best of luck.
Can't go wrong with those 2 ISLS. To me State Of Play looks amazing value each way. I think JT's right that he'll attract a lot of money at some point.
[cite]Posted By: Heath Hero[/cite]Thanks Peanuts. Just out of interest, when did the same jockey win the Gold Cup and the National in the same year, and has that ever been done by an amateur? Hvaing seen him romp home in the Gold Cup I have every confidence.
Not sure if it's ever been done to be honest. Do you know?
[cite]Posted By: Chirpy Red[/cite]I know Golden Miller won both in the same season in the 30's but don't know about the jockey. We have our champagne in the Golden Miller bar after racing at Cheltenham.
Just seen a guide to the runners by Charlie McCann who points out that SWC would be the first to do the GC/GN double since Jim Culloty in 2002 with Best Mate and Bindaree (you forget he rode Bindaree as he did so only once, in the GN, because Carl Llewellyn chose to ride Beau).
SWC is in line for a treble of course with the King George at Xmas.
Ruby Walsh confirmed as The Midnight Club's jockey for GN. McCoy said a couple of days ago that he will almost certainly partner Don't Push It and that the only other possible ride for him would be Synchronised (not exactly a great indication of Arbor Supreme's chances) but that ground would likely be against him.
If you don't have an account with Bet365 it may be worth checking them out if you want to place a bet. Apart from being 1-5 places e/w and now going NRNB (at prices generally shorter than the ante-post market, to lesser or greater degrees depending on the horse) they appear to be offering to fund your account up to £200 on a matched basis if you open an account with them and deposit at least £10. Obviously you need to read the conditions carefully.
Going currently Good on the National course.
Weather forecast for drizzle/light rain over next few days (heavier Wednesday). Possible heavy rain next weekend in northwest. Ground can obviously take a drop or two at this stage.
Turftrax map of the going on the GN course at 5.45pm yesterday shows Good with a touch of Good-to-Firm at Bechers Brook and the Elbow. Aintree said they will water if forecast rain does not come but Met Office now showing predominantly dry and windy on Merseyside until Sunday (heavy shower).
Next week unsettled – rain may be persistent and heavy at times in northern and western parts of the UK.
5 day Confirmation Stage on Monday.
[cite]Posted By: Valiantphil[/cite]Peanuts - could you do a recap of your recommendations please ? - for those that have not done anything yet.
No prob Phil, sorry to be slow responding.
The going issue is a pain because it is (seemingly) critical to the participation of 2 horses rated by the model (and in another case is critical to the model’s rating of its chances).
Though the ground is currently good and the outlook is for moderate rainfall only, they are watering and if there is a lot more rain than expected late next week or even on the morning of the race it could yet go soft. Also to complicate matters, there is the 5 day Confirmation Stage on Monday and not many bookies have yet gone Non-Runner No Bet. So if you haven’t placed any bets yet (and if you wish to follow my tips) I would limit doing so to the first 3 on the list until the picture is clearer on ground.
On any going my model indicates that any of the following could win:
Oscar Time
State Of Play
Hello Bud
Synchronised (but trainer has repeatedly said that he will only run if soft as he is most effective on soft or heavy – though credentials strong enough that model does not consider soft ground imperative)
What A Friend (but trainer has said will only run if decent ground - though now that he is theoretically 15lbs well in and given the momentum behind him in the market, one suspects that it would have to be testing for them to scratch him)
The first 4 above are at or above the threshold for a “good fit” with the profile of previous winners and horses placed within 10 lengths of them. What A Friend is just outside but within the margin of error and so cannot be discounted as a win candidate – he would be the first to eliminate from the “portfolio” if necessary but if Synchronised is scratched and nearer the day it is clear that the ground will not be soft or heavy (on soft or heavy Silver By Nature enters the equation as a higher rated candidate than WAF) I would certainly want to have WAF as one of my 4.
I've always backed horse with Red in the name (Alligator, Rum and Marauder) or connected to Red (Corbiere or Bindaree) and I've done pretty well over the years. Perhaps I should gamble on Charlton tomorrow for the first time ever? COYR!
[cite]Posted By: sm[/cite]I've always backed horse with Red in the name (Alligator, Rum and Marauder) or connected to Red (Corbiere or Bindaree) and I've done pretty well over the years. Perhaps I should gamble on Charlton tomorrow for the first time ever? COYR!
Dear old Red Alligator.
What's it to be this year sm?
Santa's Son, Frankie Figg, Royal Rosa?......all trained by Howar(e)d Johnson. Spoooookyyyyyyy
Yesterday's watering and rain overnight has turned GN course good, good-to-soft places (a fair bit, according to the turftrax map).
Weather Forecast
Saturday: 5.5mm overnight, thereafter dry cloudy with sunny spells 13C
Sunday: Possible rain am with showers and sunny spells 11C
Monday & Tuesday: Dull and mainly dry, possible showers
Wednesday onwards mainly dry and warm, sunny spells, possible showers 16C
Comments
Cheers AFKA, you're right of course.
Spot on, sorry
I'll probably stick with Hello Bud and State of Play after they served me well last year... Oscar Time would be some story for SWC.
Good luck to all, especially Peanuts who every year cites impending doom yet sidesteps it perfectly!
He didn't do well enough in his prep (on unsuitably testing ground) for my model to give him a winning chance but he's one of four (with Character Building, Becauseicouldntsee and Big Fella Thanks) which on good ground it rates as being very capable of grabbing a place (other than the Win Candidates obviously).
I still have a small long price win bet on him on Betfair and have added a place position as its such a blast having a real long-shot in the team. Not certain that the owner and trainer will choose Aintree or Fairyhouse for him (he must have good ground) and in any event he may not make the line up (touch and go after yesterday's forfeit stage).
I notice on Betfair that someone has been trying to get a decent sum on him for a while (win and place) at very big prices (maybe the stable lads or a pal of connections?). His win price has been hit (I assume not only by Charlton Lifers!) so that at the moment 80 is the best offer but he is still offered at 30 on the place market (4 places), which seems to me to be a interesting bet, maybe as a complement to your £2 win bet (don't go too big though). He is 66/1 with the bookies.
The risk with Betfair is that the owner/trainer scratch him for any reason (in which case the stake is lost). If he is declared but doesn't make the line up because the cut comes higher the bet is void.
Do you do level stakes on all your selections?
Good luck! I'm still not ripping up my slip on Backstage though (only because I did it online and not in a shop otherwise it would be straight in the bin)
Agree with you totally about it being a blast -you've got to love a long odds house. I had £3 each way on At First Sight in the Derby last year purely because he had such long odds (100-1) compared to the others about five minutes from the start (I have no knowledge compared to guys like you and was bored revising so figured it'd give me an interesting 5 minutes of procrastination). I know you said you're mainly a jumps man but if you remember he was pacemaker and only got overtaken about 100m from the end, so I was going crazy throughout the race! Certainly makes the result all the more satisfying and the race more tense/enjoyable knowing you're backing an outsider, sort of similar to being a Charlton fan in that it's shit or bust and 9 times out of 10 you're bust....
Cheers GRAY9,
Generally I do them each way and scale them so that, more or less, I am indifferent as to which one scores. You probably won't be surprised to hear that I need a spreadsheet to calculate how to scale them using either bookies or Betfair.
However, got to confess that I'm well and truely cheesed off with What A Friend because he was on my radar screen back when he was 50/1 but I didn;t back him then because of the liklihood that he would not run (obviously the Gold Cup 4th and the handicapper's repsonse changed that). All the others I got earlier at sensible prices but WAF's now 11/1 and I reckon he may well go off single-digit favourite because of the media bandwagon so I've decided that I would only back him to win (got 12/1 NRNB) as I'd rather keep a higher potential profit margin and take the chance that if he deosn't win he doesn't get a place either, at the expense of one of the others (I have a feeling that he'll either run very well or be a major disappointment as GN favs often have been).
Very sensible - he may not have the stats according to my model but Elliott is no mug. Best of luck.
LOL, absolutely. Let's hope Golden Kite gives us a buzz for a while. Nice if he did as well as your fellow in the Debry. Fingers crossed.
nice one.
Cheers chaps. Best of luck.
Can't go wrong with those 2 ISLS. To me State Of Play looks amazing value each way. I think JT's right that he'll attract a lot of money at some point.
Just seen a guide to the runners by Charlie McCann who points out that SWC would be the first to do the GC/GN double since Jim Culloty in 2002 with Best Mate and Bindaree (you forget he rode Bindaree as he did so only once, in the GN, because Carl Llewellyn chose to ride Beau).
SWC is in line for a treble of course with the King George at Xmas.
If you don't have an account with Bet365 it may be worth checking them out if you want to place a bet. Apart from being 1-5 places e/w and now going NRNB (at prices generally shorter than the ante-post market, to lesser or greater degrees depending on the horse) they appear to be offering to fund your account up to £200 on a matched basis if you open an account with them and deposit at least £10. Obviously you need to read the conditions carefully.
Going currently Good on the National course.
Weather forecast for drizzle/light rain over next few days (heavier Wednesday). Possible heavy rain next weekend in northwest. Ground can obviously take a drop or two at this stage.
http://www.portlandbookmakers.co.uk/branches/Default.aspx
Next week unsettled – rain may be persistent and heavy at times in northern and western parts of the UK.
5 day Confirmation Stage on Monday.
Also on Roll Along at a big price.
Last year the one in Brockley paid 7 places
Weather Forecast
Friday: Dry overnight cloudy am, sunny afternoon 17C. Saturday & Sunday: Cloudy with sunny spells, possible showers, 12C. Monday &
Tuesday: Dull and mainly dry, possible showers. Wedenesday onwards : Mainly dry and warm, sunny spells, possible showers, 16C.
Meanwhile, JP McManus has bought Bluesea Cracker.
No prob Phil, sorry to be slow responding.
The going issue is a pain because it is (seemingly) critical to the participation of 2 horses rated by the model (and in another case is critical to the model’s rating of its chances).
Though the ground is currently good and the outlook is for moderate rainfall only, they are watering and if there is a lot more rain than expected late next week or even on the morning of the race it could yet go soft. Also to complicate matters, there is the 5 day Confirmation Stage on Monday and not many bookies have yet gone Non-Runner No Bet. So if you haven’t placed any bets yet (and if you wish to follow my tips) I would limit doing so to the first 3 on the list until the picture is clearer on ground.
On any going my model indicates that any of the following could win:
Oscar Time
State Of Play
Hello Bud
Synchronised (but trainer has repeatedly said that he will only run if soft as he is most effective on soft or heavy – though credentials strong enough that model does not consider soft ground imperative)
What A Friend (but trainer has said will only run if decent ground - though now that he is theoretically 15lbs well in and given the momentum behind him in the market, one suspects that it would have to be testing for them to scratch him)
The first 4 above are at or above the threshold for a “good fit” with the profile of previous winners and horses placed within 10 lengths of them. What A Friend is just outside but within the margin of error and so cannot be discounted as a win candidate – he would be the first to eliminate from the “portfolio” if necessary but if Synchronised is scratched and nearer the day it is clear that the ground will not be soft or heavy (on soft or heavy Silver By Nature enters the equation as a higher rated candidate than WAF) I would certainly want to have WAF as one of my 4.
On soft or heavy ground only:
Silver By Nature is also a win candidate.
Dear old Red Alligator.
What's it to be this year sm?
Santa's Son, Frankie Figg, Royal Rosa?......all trained by Howar(e)d Johnson. Spoooookyyyyyyy
LOL. Nice one. Good luck.
Weather Forecast
Saturday: 5.5mm overnight, thereafter dry cloudy with sunny spells 13C
Sunday: Possible rain am with showers and sunny spells 11C
Monday & Tuesday: Dull and mainly dry, possible showers
Wednesday onwards mainly dry and warm, sunny spells, possible showers 16C