One to avoid at the head of the market is Niche Market. Amazing that he’s 2nd fav at 16/1, which presumably is purely on the basis of being Nicholls' "main hope" and having had the customary Nicholls’ wind-operation (does not necessarily mean he had a wind problem).
He had the credentials to win last year's GN (never going over the fences before not being an issue) but ran very disappointingly and seemingly didn't take to the fences (making at least two bad mistakes).
Since then, with Nicholls, he's fallen and ran out of steam in the Hennessey. Even off 5lbs less than he carried a year ago and with the Nicholls factor (being Champion trainer is not significant in the GN anyway), the poor show last year makes Niche Market virtually a red line job according to the stats.
[cite]Posted By: UP...THE...ADDICKS[/cite]What we having this year then Penuts?
Dont rush him.
If you look at the previous years threads, there is a steady and studious approach, taking in multiple variances before the list is produced.
Also horses dropping out alter the amount of horses that are 'in handicap' or something like that.
What I need to know is - what does it mean when they the over round (or something like that) is 115% ?
It’s a bit early to give any definitive tips (need to wait until after Cheltenham). Maybe it’s the loss of so much racing this season or maybe it’s just that there seems to be a lot of crap down the weights but there’s only a few horses that are now over the threshold of being backable according to my model and several of them are not certain runners. A number are teetering on the brink and will move in or out of the frame depending upon how they run over the next month or so.
So no great ante-post opportunity this year I’m afraid (unless you’ve got a reliable long-range weather forecast for Merseyside that says RAIN) but a few comments:
Synchronised (8 year old, 11st 6lbs): Back him as soon as declared a probable runner
I’ve already mentioned Synchronised (winner of Welsh National and Midlands National and a 100% record in 3 chases at 3 miles+. He will definitely be one to be with according to my stats if Jonjo and JP give him the nod to run. Jonjo says he’s not as good a horse as Don’t Push It and needs it soft. I agree it’s hard to see Synchronised running within a length of Denman over 2 ½ miles at level weights as DPI did. But they’ve given him a Gold Cup entry so they can’t think too badly of him and there’s plenty of stayers of his calibre that have done the business in the GN (Mon Mome being the most recent of a long line). A liking for soft ground (as Mon Mome also had) is a plus even on genuine good ground over 4.5 miles. The ground should not be quicker than good as Aintree will water if necessary. If it were to come up soft McCoy would likely ride Synchronised, in which case expect his odds to be a fraction of the 70 offered on Betfair today.
Don’t Push It (11 year old, 11st 10lbs): Don’t Touch It
While Don’t Push It was a star for a lot of us last year, I can’t agree with the Racing UK commentators and Jonjo, who proclaimed his run over 3 miles over hurdles at Newbury last Friday to be encouraging (he had to be urged to maintain his effort from 4 furlongs out and still barely made inroads). I guess you could be encouraged on the basis that it wasn’t as terrible as his other 2 runs this season but DPI would certainly need to show a lot more in order to get the nod from my model (possible but not looking likely). McCoy’s right to be making noises about getting off him. The weight isn’t the main problem according to my model (though of course he’s penalised for it), it’s the hangover which often follows GN success.
Hello Bud (13 year old, 10st 5lbs): Back him but get 5 places for each way bets
JT, I make you right about Hello Bud. He solidly makes the current shortlist (would need to Fall, which he never has, on a prep run to drop out) despite the fact that he would be a stat-smasher if he won - would be the first 13 year old to win since 1923. However, the sample for 13 year olds running in the GN over the last 22 years of my database is insufficient to draw any relevant conclusions, though my model does penalise any horse over 11 years old. However, according to the rest of his stats (mainly by virtue of winning the Becher Chase on soft in November) he has a better chance this year than he did last, when he ran very well before being bullied out of it and finishing 5th (I’ve backed him each way with 5 places [Victor Chandler], having gone the Betfair route last year).
Aside from the matter of his age, fellow GN stat-followers will know that horses rarely win the GN having failed when completing in previous years, though it is true that some horses tend to be repeatedly placed (e.g The Pilgarlic, Suny Bay, Clan Royal, Slim Pickings, State of Play). In Hello Bud’s favour in terms of going several places better this year is that Twiston-Davies has trained him specifically for Aintree. Last year the GN was Bud’s 7th race of the season and he’d had 2 tough races in the previous 2 months; this time it will probably be his 4th and he’ll probably just have a quiet prep run somewhere. Please don’t fall !!!
Other current Win candidates (in no particular order):
Silver By Nature (9 year old, 10st 9lbs - 16/1 with some bookies). Kicking myself I didn’t take the 40s on offer before the weekend. Close 2nd in 2009 Welsh National, winning the Haydock GN Trial on heavy on Saturday has put him over the statistical threshold for the GN shortlist so has to be backed if he lines up (not definite but looking likely). However, the Haydock trial hasn’t been a great pointer recently for the GN. Won by Rambling Minster in 2009, also on heavy, he ran a stinker at Aintree while Mon Mome, well behind him at Haydock, did the biz. Similarly, Hello Bud was well beaten in this race in the mud last year. For that reason, it’s not the end of the world for West End Rocker who pulled up on Saturday but who is reported to be uninjured and will head straight to Aintree – my model still rates him as a place (though not a win) candidate.
Bluesea Cracker (9 year old, 10st 4lbs - 38 Betfair). Irish National winner last year and a tough, good jumping mare. To cement her place on the shortlist she needs to run respectably on Wednesday in the Bobbyjo Chase but, even if she does, she’ll only run in the GN if there’s cut – would be the first mare to win since 1951 [same comments on stats apply as for 13 year olds].
Oscar Time (10 year old, 10st 9lbs - 16/1). Second in Irish National last year and due to give less weight to Bluesea Cracker at Aintree (though the 4.5L margin of defeat at Fairyhouse may have flattered Oscar Time a little). Also needs to run respectably on Wednesday in Ireland to secure the nod from the model. Bought by the Waley-Cohens for a GN run (Sam Waley-Cohen, who has won over the GN fences, will ride) so barring injury will line up on the day.
What A Friend (8 year old, 11st 6lbs - 50/1). High strike rate at 3 mile+ chases, with preference for good ground BUT not a likely runner this year, according to Nicholls. Will run in the Gold Cup if ground is decent.
Giles Cross (9 year old, 10st - 290 on Betfair). Second in this season’s Welsh National, unfortunately ranking 78~82 in the weights and probably will not get in)
Current Place candidates: West End Rocker, Notre Pere and Becauseicouldntsee
Please bear in mind:
1. This list is liable to change (departures and new entrants) over the next few days/weeks, though the stats behind Hello Bud, Silver By Nature and Synchronised are pretty robust.
2. My model is due a crash and burn year.
Will post my definitive list after Cheltenham but watch that race on ATR at Fairyhouse on Wednesday. Should be very interesting with several GN entries potentially in competition (Vic Venturi, Ballytrim, Arbor Supreme, Bluesea Cracker, Oscar Time and The Midnight Club). UPDATE - All except Ballytrim declared, 3.45pm Sky channel 415.
What I need to know is - what does it mean when they the over round (or something like that) is 115% ?
Courtesy of Wikipedia MrOneLung:
"In considering a soccer match (the event) that can be either a 'home win', 'draw' or 'away win' (the outcomes) then the following odds might be encountered to represent the true chance of each of the three outcomes:
Home: Evens
Draw: 2-1
Away: 5-1
These odds can be represented as relative probabilities (or percentages by multiplying by 100) as follows:
Evens (or 1-1) corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄2 (50%)
2-1 corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄3 (331⁄3%)
5-1 corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄6 (162⁄3%)
By adding the percentages together a total 'book' of 100% is achieved (representing a fair book). The bookmaker, in his wish to avail himself of a profit, will invariably reduce these odds - possibly to the following:
Home: 4-5
Draw: 9-5
Away: 4-1
4-5 corresponds to a relative probability of 5⁄9 (555⁄9%)
9-5 corresponds to a relative probability of 5⁄14 (355⁄7%)
4-1 corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄5 (20%)
By adding these percentages together a 'book' of 11117⁄63%, or more commonly 111.27%, is achieved.
The amount by which the actual 'book' exceeds 100% is known as the 'overround': it represents the bookmaker's potential profit if he is fortunate enough to accept bets in the exact proportions required. Thus, in an ideal situation, if the bookmaker accepts £111.27 in bets at his own quoted odds in the correct proportion, he will pay out only £100 (including returned stakes) no matter what the actual outcome of the football match. Examining how he potentially achieves this:
A stake of £55.56 @ 4-5 returns £100.00 (rounded down to nearest penny) for a home win.
A stake of £35.71 @ 9-5 returns £ 99.98 (rounded down to nearest penny) for a drawn match
A stake of £20.00 @ 4-1 returns £100.00 (exactly) for an away win
Total stakes received — £111.27 and a maximum payout of £100 irrespective of the result. This £11.27 profit represents a 10.1% profit on turnover (11.27 × 100/111.27)."
He was definitely unlucky GRAY9 - virtually brought down. Actually, he could easily still be one of my final tips as the outcome from my model is pretty fluid at this stage. He's certainly got a canny trainer.
Neptune Collonges scratched from this year's GN by owner, leaving Dont Push It alone as topweight on 11st 10lbs.
Quinz was certainly impressive winning the RP Chase on Saturday but is one that every stat-follower would oppose for the GN - 7 year olds have a terrible record.
Of the Bobbyjo Chase contenders last week, The Midnight Club won impressively but the stats make him a place rather than win candidate for the GN (12/1 fav)
Despite not finishing as strongly as he’d travelled, close 3rd Oscar Time (16/1) is well supported by the stats as a potential GN winner, bolstered by his Irish National second. He’ll be receiving 4lbs from The Midnight Club at Aintree.
Arbor Supreme ran very well in 2nd but unseating at The Chair last GN is a big negative.
Vic Venturi ran OK. He likes the Aintree fences but simply doesn't get extreme trips.
Bluesea Cracker will be better treated at the weights against these rivals at Aintree but needs another run and a better showing to get the stats back in her favour for the GN and will only run if there's cut.
Giles Cross acquited himself well in the torture that was the Eider to leave him (theoretically) eminently backable for the GN but he'll be lucky to get into the 40 to line up.
Don't be swayed (even at 75 on Betfair) by mumblings coming out of David Pipe that Comply Or Die has been looking like his old GN-winning self. Nothing in the stats to lend support even off 10st 8lbs.
1st Forfeit Stage and those taken out from those allotted 10st plus are:
Neptune Collonges, Tranquil Sea, Little Josh, Taranis, Fair Along, I’msingingtheblues, Just Amazing, From Dawn To Dusk, Apt Approach, Quiscover Fontaine, Mobaasher, Nikto De Beauchene and Quezac De La Roque.
Last year number 68 at this stage got to run, though 2 horses were scratched by connections to allow lower weighted horses a run. So, if 66 today got in, that would mean a run for 2 of the 5 horses allotted 10 stone, based upon the then handicap ratings (these are Askthemaster, Dev, Giles Cross, Saddlers Storm and Starzaan).
Peanuts - are we any nearer knowing definitively who I should put my newly-received student loan on?
I'm liking the look of Synchronised, and Hello Bud did well for me last year so I'm going to have a go with that again. Any secret tips or are those the stand outs for you?
A little way to go yet mon ami. Need to see the action at Cheltenham, also the weather is going to be crucial to the chances of some of them lining up, particularly Synchronised.
Synchronised, Hello Bud, Oscar Time and Giles Cross are currently the stand out candidates IF they line up (only Hello Bud and Oscar Time are, barring injury, certain to do so) but Silver By Nature, What A Friend (unlikely to run), Becauseicouldntsee (recovering from injury), Bluesea Cracker (needs cut to take her chance) and Notre Pere are all on the fringe (either side of the threshold) of having the right stats and there could be 1 or 2 others than surge or creep in there.
Will post my model's definitive best Win candidates after the Festival and 2nd Forfeit Stage on 22nd March.
However, if you fancy a huge price candidate that's not in my model's selections yet but could easily make it with a good show in a quiet prep race in Ireland over the next few weeks (can't guarantee it but it's very possible), have £2 on Golden Kite (590 win on Betfair). He must have genuine good ground and could head for the Irish National instead but if he lined up at Liverpool he might just provide the biggest shock since, well, Mon Mome!
UPDATE - Golden Kite taken overnight, bits and pieces on the board at higher but top price for £2+ now 310.
Apart from a real punt like that, if I hadn't placed any bets to date I'd wait on the Non Runner No Bet to kick in from the bookies in a couple of weeks as there are so many uncertainties (and make sure you get 5 places, with the likes of Bet365, VC, Boylesports et al.).
[cite]Posted By: allez les addicks[/cite]Peanuts - you obviously caused such a shift in the market by telling us about Golden Kite that it's shortened!
Thanks, I've gone for that as it was only £2 and Hello Bud but will wait a little longer before committing the rest!
Thought you might be in there Plaaayer.....bit of a wild one is Golden Kite but have to have a nibble at those prices.
Keep your powder dry otherwise though, plenty of time yet.
[cite]Posted By: Curb_It[/cite]done what? I can only see 50-1.
shall we make this members only? someone tell me where to get the good odds.
On Betfair B.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Thought you might be in there Plaaayer.....bit of a wild one is Golden Kite but have to have a nibble at those prices.
Keep your powder dry otherwise though, plenty of time yet.
I remember the days when it was just you and me Peanuts, they're all jumping on your bandwagon now :0)
[cite]Posted By: Curb_It[/cite]done what? I can only see 50-1.
shall we make this members only? someone tell me where to get the good odds.
Golden Kite on Betfair is now 330 to win (66/1 with some bookies) but was 590 last night.
A real punt as they may take him to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree and needs good ground but he's not far off being a Win candidate according to my model - not quite there yet but could easily get there and the possibility last night of a return of more than a grand for a £2 gamble seemed a bit tasty.
Nicholls can wax lyrical all he likes about Niche Market's performance today in his GN prep. Even allowing for the shorter than ideal trip he didn't look like a 14/1 shot for Aintree to me.
“He's a real out-and-out stayer”, says Nicholls but the facts don’t back that statement. He won the Irish National (3 miles 5 furlongs) on Good ground carrying 9st 13lbs (taking account of his jockey’s weight claim) at an Official Rating of 136 (OR for this year's GN 149) but all 4 runs at longer (off ORs of 125,126,137 & 152) have shown that he doesn’t get much further, certainly not 4.5 miles at the demanding cruising speed of an Aintree National, as was apparent last year.
The acid test will be which horse Ruby Walsh decides to ride: Niche Market or The Midnight Club. Don’t be surprised when Walsh opts for the latter.
Comments
He had the credentials to win last year's GN (never going over the fences before not being an issue) but ran very disappointingly and seemingly didn't take to the fences (making at least two bad mistakes).
Since then, with Nicholls, he's fallen and ran out of steam in the Hennessey. Even off 5lbs less than he carried a year ago and with the Nicholls factor (being Champion trainer is not significant in the GN anyway), the poor show last year makes Niche Market virtually a red line job according to the stats.
Dont rush him.
If you look at the previous years threads, there is a steady and studious approach, taking in multiple variances before the list is produced.
Also horses dropping out alter the amount of horses that are 'in handicap' or something like that.
What I need to know is - what does it mean when they the over round (or something like that) is 115% ?
It’s a bit early to give any definitive tips (need to wait until after Cheltenham). Maybe it’s the loss of so much racing this season or maybe it’s just that there seems to be a lot of crap down the weights but there’s only a few horses that are now over the threshold of being backable according to my model and several of them are not certain runners. A number are teetering on the brink and will move in or out of the frame depending upon how they run over the next month or so.
So no great ante-post opportunity this year I’m afraid (unless you’ve got a reliable long-range weather forecast for Merseyside that says RAIN) but a few comments:
Synchronised (8 year old, 11st 6lbs): Back him as soon as declared a probable runner
I’ve already mentioned Synchronised (winner of Welsh National and Midlands National and a 100% record in 3 chases at 3 miles+. He will definitely be one to be with according to my stats if Jonjo and JP give him the nod to run. Jonjo says he’s not as good a horse as Don’t Push It and needs it soft. I agree it’s hard to see Synchronised running within a length of Denman over 2 ½ miles at level weights as DPI did. But they’ve given him a Gold Cup entry so they can’t think too badly of him and there’s plenty of stayers of his calibre that have done the business in the GN (Mon Mome being the most recent of a long line). A liking for soft ground (as Mon Mome also had) is a plus even on genuine good ground over 4.5 miles. The ground should not be quicker than good as Aintree will water if necessary. If it were to come up soft McCoy would likely ride Synchronised, in which case expect his odds to be a fraction of the 70 offered on Betfair today.
Don’t Push It (11 year old, 11st 10lbs): Don’t Touch It
While Don’t Push It was a star for a lot of us last year, I can’t agree with the Racing UK commentators and Jonjo, who proclaimed his run over 3 miles over hurdles at Newbury last Friday to be encouraging (he had to be urged to maintain his effort from 4 furlongs out and still barely made inroads). I guess you could be encouraged on the basis that it wasn’t as terrible as his other 2 runs this season but DPI would certainly need to show a lot more in order to get the nod from my model (possible but not looking likely). McCoy’s right to be making noises about getting off him. The weight isn’t the main problem according to my model (though of course he’s penalised for it), it’s the hangover which often follows GN success.
Hello Bud (13 year old, 10st 5lbs): Back him but get 5 places for each way bets
JT, I make you right about Hello Bud. He solidly makes the current shortlist (would need to Fall, which he never has, on a prep run to drop out) despite the fact that he would be a stat-smasher if he won - would be the first 13 year old to win since 1923. However, the sample for 13 year olds running in the GN over the last 22 years of my database is insufficient to draw any relevant conclusions, though my model does penalise any horse over 11 years old. However, according to the rest of his stats (mainly by virtue of winning the Becher Chase on soft in November) he has a better chance this year than he did last, when he ran very well before being bullied out of it and finishing 5th (I’ve backed him each way with 5 places [Victor Chandler], having gone the Betfair route last year).
Aside from the matter of his age, fellow GN stat-followers will know that horses rarely win the GN having failed when completing in previous years, though it is true that some horses tend to be repeatedly placed (e.g The Pilgarlic, Suny Bay, Clan Royal, Slim Pickings, State of Play). In Hello Bud’s favour in terms of going several places better this year is that Twiston-Davies has trained him specifically for Aintree. Last year the GN was Bud’s 7th race of the season and he’d had 2 tough races in the previous 2 months; this time it will probably be his 4th and he’ll probably just have a quiet prep run somewhere. Please don’t fall !!!
Other current Win candidates (in no particular order):
Silver By Nature (9 year old, 10st 9lbs - 16/1 with some bookies). Kicking myself I didn’t take the 40s on offer before the weekend. Close 2nd in 2009 Welsh National, winning the Haydock GN Trial on heavy on Saturday has put him over the statistical threshold for the GN shortlist so has to be backed if he lines up (not definite but looking likely). However, the Haydock trial hasn’t been a great pointer recently for the GN. Won by Rambling Minster in 2009, also on heavy, he ran a stinker at Aintree while Mon Mome, well behind him at Haydock, did the biz. Similarly, Hello Bud was well beaten in this race in the mud last year. For that reason, it’s not the end of the world for West End Rocker who pulled up on Saturday but who is reported to be uninjured and will head straight to Aintree – my model still rates him as a place (though not a win) candidate.
Bluesea Cracker (9 year old, 10st 4lbs - 38 Betfair). Irish National winner last year and a tough, good jumping mare. To cement her place on the shortlist she needs to run respectably on Wednesday in the Bobbyjo Chase but, even if she does, she’ll only run in the GN if there’s cut – would be the first mare to win since 1951 [same comments on stats apply as for 13 year olds].
Oscar Time (10 year old, 10st 9lbs - 16/1). Second in Irish National last year and due to give less weight to Bluesea Cracker at Aintree (though the 4.5L margin of defeat at Fairyhouse may have flattered Oscar Time a little). Also needs to run respectably on Wednesday in Ireland to secure the nod from the model. Bought by the Waley-Cohens for a GN run (Sam Waley-Cohen, who has won over the GN fences, will ride) so barring injury will line up on the day.
What A Friend (8 year old, 11st 6lbs - 50/1). High strike rate at 3 mile+ chases, with preference for good ground BUT not a likely runner this year, according to Nicholls. Will run in the Gold Cup if ground is decent.
Giles Cross (9 year old, 10st - 290 on Betfair). Second in this season’s Welsh National, unfortunately ranking 78~82 in the weights and probably will not get in)
Current Place candidates: West End Rocker, Notre Pere and Becauseicouldntsee
Please bear in mind:
1. This list is liable to change (departures and new entrants) over the next few days/weeks, though the stats behind Hello Bud, Silver By Nature and Synchronised are pretty robust.
2. My model is due a crash and burn year.
Will post my definitive list after Cheltenham but watch that race on ATR at Fairyhouse on Wednesday. Should be very interesting with several GN entries potentially in competition (Vic Venturi, Ballytrim, Arbor Supreme, Bluesea Cracker, Oscar Time and The Midnight Club). UPDATE - All except Ballytrim declared, 3.45pm Sky channel 415.
Courtesy of Wikipedia MrOneLung:
"In considering a soccer match (the event) that can be either a 'home win', 'draw' or 'away win' (the outcomes) then the following odds might be encountered to represent the true chance of each of the three outcomes:
Home: Evens
Draw: 2-1
Away: 5-1
These odds can be represented as relative probabilities (or percentages by multiplying by 100) as follows:
Evens (or 1-1) corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄2 (50%)
2-1 corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄3 (331⁄3%)
5-1 corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄6 (162⁄3%)
By adding the percentages together a total 'book' of 100% is achieved (representing a fair book). The bookmaker, in his wish to avail himself of a profit, will invariably reduce these odds - possibly to the following:
Home: 4-5
Draw: 9-5
Away: 4-1
4-5 corresponds to a relative probability of 5⁄9 (555⁄9%)
9-5 corresponds to a relative probability of 5⁄14 (355⁄7%)
4-1 corresponds to a relative probability of 1⁄5 (20%)
By adding these percentages together a 'book' of 11117⁄63%, or more commonly 111.27%, is achieved.
The amount by which the actual 'book' exceeds 100% is known as the 'overround': it represents the bookmaker's potential profit if he is fortunate enough to accept bets in the exact proportions required. Thus, in an ideal situation, if the bookmaker accepts £111.27 in bets at his own quoted odds in the correct proportion, he will pay out only £100 (including returned stakes) no matter what the actual outcome of the football match. Examining how he potentially achieves this:
A stake of £55.56 @ 4-5 returns £100.00 (rounded down to nearest penny) for a home win.
A stake of £35.71 @ 9-5 returns £ 99.98 (rounded down to nearest penny) for a drawn match
A stake of £20.00 @ 4-1 returns £100.00 (exactly) for an away win
Total stakes received — £111.27 and a maximum payout of £100 irrespective of the result. This £11.27 profit represents a 10.1% profit on turnover (11.27 × 100/111.27)."
My uncle, who was an old style street bookie, explained the 100% book to me as a kid but I couldn't remember how it worked.
How he did that maths in his head I'll never know.
When it gets beat I'll have Peanuts tips to fall back on anyway ;-)
Quinz was certainly impressive winning the RP Chase on Saturday but is one that every stat-follower would oppose for the GN - 7 year olds have a terrible record.
Of the Bobbyjo Chase contenders last week, The Midnight Club won impressively but the stats make him a place rather than win candidate for the GN (12/1 fav)
Despite not finishing as strongly as he’d travelled, close 3rd Oscar Time (16/1) is well supported by the stats as a potential GN winner, bolstered by his Irish National second. He’ll be receiving 4lbs from The Midnight Club at Aintree.
Arbor Supreme ran very well in 2nd but unseating at The Chair last GN is a big negative.
Vic Venturi ran OK. He likes the Aintree fences but simply doesn't get extreme trips.
Bluesea Cracker will be better treated at the weights against these rivals at Aintree but needs another run and a better showing to get the stats back in her favour for the GN and will only run if there's cut.
Giles Cross acquited himself well in the torture that was the Eider to leave him (theoretically) eminently backable for the GN but he'll be lucky to get into the 40 to line up.
Don't be swayed (even at 75 on Betfair) by mumblings coming out of David Pipe that Comply Or Die has been looking like his old GN-winning self. Nothing in the stats to lend support even off 10st 8lbs.
Roll on Cheltenham!
Neptune Collonges, Tranquil Sea, Little Josh, Taranis, Fair Along, I’msingingtheblues, Just Amazing, From Dawn To Dusk, Apt Approach, Quiscover Fontaine, Mobaasher, Nikto De Beauchene and Quezac De La Roque.
Last year number 68 at this stage got to run, though 2 horses were scratched by connections to allow lower weighted horses a run. So, if 66 today got in, that would mean a run for 2 of the 5 horses allotted 10 stone, based upon the then handicap ratings (these are Askthemaster, Dev, Giles Cross, Saddlers Storm and Starzaan).
I'm liking the look of Synchronised, and Hello Bud did well for me last year so I'm going to have a go with that again. Any secret tips or are those the stand outs for you?
Thanks
Synchronised, Hello Bud, Oscar Time and Giles Cross are currently the stand out candidates IF they line up (only Hello Bud and Oscar Time are, barring injury, certain to do so) but Silver By Nature, What A Friend (unlikely to run), Becauseicouldntsee (recovering from injury), Bluesea Cracker (needs cut to take her chance) and Notre Pere are all on the fringe (either side of the threshold) of having the right stats and there could be 1 or 2 others than surge or creep in there.
Will post my model's definitive best Win candidates after the Festival and 2nd Forfeit Stage on 22nd March.
However, if you fancy a huge price candidate that's not in my model's selections yet but could easily make it with a good show in a quiet prep race in Ireland over the next few weeks (can't guarantee it but it's very possible), have £2 on Golden Kite (590 win on Betfair). He must have genuine good ground and could head for the Irish National instead but if he lined up at Liverpool he might just provide the biggest shock since, well, Mon Mome!
UPDATE - Golden Kite taken overnight, bits and pieces on the board at higher but top price for £2+ now 310.
Apart from a real punt like that, if I hadn't placed any bets to date I'd wait on the Non Runner No Bet to kick in from the bookies in a couple of weeks as there are so many uncertainties (and make sure you get 5 places, with the likes of Bet365, VC, Boylesports et al.).
Thanks, I've gone for that as it was only £2 and Hello Bud but will wait a little longer before committing the rest!
LOL, good luck
shall we make this members only? someone tell me where to get the good odds.
Keep your powder dry otherwise though, plenty of time yet.
Just had a cheeky each-wayer on Yet Mon Ami :-)
On Betfair B.
I remember the days when it was just you and me Peanuts, they're all jumping on your bandwagon now :0)
Golden Kite on Betfair is now 330 to win (66/1 with some bookies) but was 590 last night.
A real punt as they may take him to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree and needs good ground but he's not far off being a Win candidate according to my model - not quite there yet but could easily get there and the possibility last night of a return of more than a grand for a £2 gamble seemed a bit tasty.
At least we'll still be ahead when my system flops this year ;o)
As if you don't need it now : - 0
“He's a real out-and-out stayer”, says Nicholls but the facts don’t back that statement. He won the Irish National (3 miles 5 furlongs) on Good ground carrying 9st 13lbs (taking account of his jockey’s weight claim) at an Official Rating of 136 (OR for this year's GN 149) but all 4 runs at longer (off ORs of 125,126,137 & 152) have shown that he doesn’t get much further, certainly not 4.5 miles at the demanding cruising speed of an Aintree National, as was apparent last year.
The acid test will be which horse Ruby Walsh decides to ride: Niche Market or The Midnight Club. Don’t be surprised when Walsh opts for the latter.