Personally I'm fed up with trainers' prattlings. If SOP is fit (and he says "we couldn't have got him fitter"), I'll certainly stick with the selection.
Meanwhile Northern Alliance is only 50:50. If he and Roll Along both drop out that would bring in Royal Rosa and Skippers Brig. EDIT - unless they wait until Saturday morning to do it; too late for a Reserve to get a run.
[cite]Posted By: AshTray[/cite]
...and Silver by Nature if the going is good to soft right Peanuts?
Official descriptions are sometimes a little wide of the mark but if it looks like it will be genuine Good-to-Soft then Silver By Nature is within the margin of error and so would join the other 4 Win Candidates.
On Soft or softer (looking unlikely given the forecast) he would certainly be a Win selection.
On anything better than Good-to-Soft he would struggle to make the frame.
SBN is such a short price that, given the dry forecast, I would certainly hold off until nearer the day and we can at least get the times of the FoxHunters and Topham Chases over the GN course.
Going on GN course now Good-to-Soft after rain on Tuesday am, softer than expected but given dry forecast through Saturday, watering during the meeting not ruled out.
EDIT: Again showing that artificial irrigation causes the ground to turn quickly with modest rainfall, after 4mm Tues night the going is now Soft, Good-to-Soft places, though the Turftrax map shows Soft & Good-to-Soft in equal measure with some good places.
They've overwatered but if they are lucky and the forecast is spot on they will get away with it - put the sprinklers away!
Our Monty's out with an infection, shame for Katie Walsh but good news for Royal Rosa, now guaranteed a run.
Roll Along and Northern Alliance are still possible defections through injury.
[cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]Do we need 2 more out for GK to run?
That's it. Declarations tomorrow and at worst he'll be 2nd Reserve but not sure what the cut-off is for withdrawals in order for Reserves to get a run - sometime on Friday I think.
Need the ground to dry out (which is forecast) and for the groundsman to put his bloody sprinkler away.
PS you do know he is a long shot don't you Plaaayer - don't go putting your wife's Xmas savings on him
Peanuts - I have forwarded the tips to everyone I know.
We are gonna bring down the bookies - have put my 4 month old down for private school, and put a deposit on some land in Barbados.
Just need your statistical model for the Masters by tomorrow morning for a bit of pocket money.
[cite]Posted By: ValleyGary[/cite]so does Oscar Time need more rain to come peanuts?...or will the groundsman water the course enough for him?
He would probably be most effective on genuine Good to Soft but his stats are good enough that he is a Win candidate on any ground that they're likely to encounter.
Got to treat official going descriptions with a large pinch of salt. 2009 was officially Good-to-Soft, Good Places but the racetime more consistent with Soft (according to the Racing Post) and 2010 was officially Good, Good-to-Soft places but racetime suggests there was definitely no Good-to-Soft around. So it's tricky. Will put the stop watch on the Foxhunters tomorrow.
Actually I've just realised that these bu**ers change the official goings way after the event.
The 2009 race was run on Good (Good to Soft places) as described before and for some time after the race. But the racetime always suggested it was much softer than that. Indeed the Racing Post calculates that the racetime suggest it was Soft going. Strangely, the record has been altered so that it now shows the official going as Good to Soft (Gd in places) - but even that is wide of the mark.
The significance of that may be zero to the entire population except for me, because it means that my model was essentially correct to say Mon Mome (only on Soft or softer). Whatever the true nature of the ground, it was much nearer Soft ground than Good.
Lesson - treat official going descriptions with extreme caution. Get the stopwatch out at 3.40 this afternoon for the Foxhunters Chase.
At around 5m 30s it is Gd, 5m 45s it is GS, 6m it is Sft.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Actually I've just realised that these bu**ers change the official goings way after the event.
The 2009 race was run on Good (Good to Soft places) as described before and for some time after the race. But the racetime always suggested it was much softer than that. Indeed the Racing Post calculates that the racetime suggest it was Soft going. Strangely, the record has been altered so that it now shows the official going as Good to Soft (Gd in places) - but even that is wide of the mark.
The significance of that may be zero to the entire population except for me, because it means that my model was essentially correct to say Mon Mome (only on Soft or softer). Whatever the true nature of the ground, it was much nearer Soft ground than Good.
Lesson - treat official going descriptions with extreme caution. Get the stopwatch out at 3.40 this afternoon for the Foxhunters Chase.
At around 5m 30s it is Gd, 5m 45s it is GS, 6m it is Sft.
They're all trying to stop you PM but they won't suceed...
[cite]Posted By: Henry Irving[/cite]
Has he? I can't keep up
Is it still?
Oscar Time
State Of Play
Hello Bud
What A Friend
Fisrt 3 are definite but if you can give me until this pm Henry for the best choice as 4th. I want to time the Foxhunters chase to see how soft the ground is at the moment. Obviously 48 hours to go to the Big One and dry weather forecast so I expect it will be WAF but if it is a slowish time, it may be that Silver By Nature could still come in ahead of him. I'll let you know final selections and best place candidates around 4pm.
If you're desperate to get to the pub and the bookies are on the way then do the first 3 and WAF.
Comments
Also fancy West End Rocker, forget his last run and his form stand up against most others
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/horse_racing/12973131.stm
Meanwhile Northern Alliance is only 50:50. If he and Roll Along both drop out that would bring in Royal Rosa and Skippers Brig. EDIT - unless they wait until Saturday morning to do it; too late for a Reserve to get a run.
Official descriptions are sometimes a little wide of the mark but if it looks like it will be genuine Good-to-Soft then Silver By Nature is within the margin of error and so would join the other 4 Win Candidates.
On Soft or softer (looking unlikely given the forecast) he would certainly be a Win selection.
On anything better than Good-to-Soft he would struggle to make the frame.
SBN is such a short price that, given the dry forecast, I would certainly hold off until nearer the day and we can at least get the times of the FoxHunters and Topham Chases over the GN course.
EDIT: Again showing that artificial irrigation causes the ground to turn quickly with modest rainfall, after 4mm Tues night the going is now Soft, Good-to-Soft places, though the Turftrax map shows Soft & Good-to-Soft in equal measure with some good places.
They've overwatered but if they are lucky and the forecast is spot on they will get away with it - put the sprinklers away!
Roll Along and Northern Alliance are still possible defections through injury.
That's it. Declarations tomorrow and at worst he'll be 2nd Reserve but not sure what the cut-off is for withdrawals in order for Reserves to get a run - sometime on Friday I think.
Need the ground to dry out (which is forecast) and for the groundsman to put his bloody sprinkler away.
PS you do know he is a long shot don't you Plaaayer - don't go putting your wife's Xmas savings on him
Would just make it very interesting if he did manage to get in. Thanks PM.
We are gonna bring down the bookies - have put my 4 month old down for private school, and put a deposit on some land in Barbados.
Just need your statistical model for the Masters by tomorrow morning for a bit of pocket money.
One-way ticket to Rio.......check
.....where did I put the number for that plastic surgeon?
Going on an open ended holiday to brazil.
Maybe we should make this members only before Paddy,fred, william et al see whats going on.
He would probably be most effective on genuine Good to Soft but his stats are good enough that he is a Win candidate on any ground that they're likely to encounter.
Got to treat official going descriptions with a large pinch of salt. 2009 was officially Good-to-Soft, Good Places but the racetime more consistent with Soft (according to the Racing Post) and 2010 was officially Good, Good-to-Soft places but racetime suggests there was definitely no Good-to-Soft around. So it's tricky. Will put the stop watch on the Foxhunters tomorrow.
calgary bay worth a punt at 25
The 2009 race was run on Good (Good to Soft places) as described before and for some time after the race. But the racetime always suggested it was much softer than that. Indeed the Racing Post calculates that the racetime suggest it was Soft going. Strangely, the record has been altered so that it now shows the official going as Good to Soft (Gd in places) - but even that is wide of the mark.
The significance of that may be zero to the entire population except for me, because it means that my model was essentially correct to say Mon Mome (only on Soft or softer). Whatever the true nature of the ground, it was much nearer Soft ground than Good.
Lesson - treat official going descriptions with extreme caution. Get the stopwatch out at 3.40 this afternoon for the Foxhunters Chase.
At around 5m 30s it is Gd, 5m 45s it is GS, 6m it is Sft.
They're all trying to stop you PM but they won't suceed...
I dont understand this but I can tell its very significant!! Woo hoo.
So they may be saying the ground is good but the times they are running at tell a different story.
Give me four names so I can run down the bookies and back them. I'll remember to take the current odds this year!
he's named them.
Has he? I can't keep up
Is it still?
Oscar Time
State Of Play
Hello Bud
What A Friend
Full Lineup
LOL. Cheers
Now what's been happening while I've been out.
Blimey GK's in. What a hoot!
Fisrt 3 are definite but if you can give me until this pm Henry for the best choice as 4th. I want to time the Foxhunters chase to see how soft the ground is at the moment. Obviously 48 hours to go to the Big One and dry weather forecast so I expect it will be WAF but if it is a slowish time, it may be that Silver By Nature could still come in ahead of him. I'll let you know final selections and best place candidates around 4pm.
If you're desperate to get to the pub and the bookies are on the way then do the first 3 and WAF.