Hi Peanuts Is there a good reason why Teaforthree is going down the Hunter Chase route ?
He aggravated an old injury during the last GN - strong suspicion that he'd done it quite early as he'd started jumping unusually stickily prior to his UR at The Chair. Don't know for sure but I guess the HntCh route meant he could have less demanding preps; i.e. on favourable terms with lesser rated opposition rather than giving lumps of weight away in handicaps. Looks like he'll struggle to make the Festival Foxhunters though.
Which means that BP is on 142 even though he is officially rated 144. That run the other day was worth it after all ;-)
Providing he gets in the race of course.
Indeed, maybe the BHA didn't update their ratings database accurately last week. Should get a run - better do because I'm on another 142-rated runner. He takes on your fella tomorrow
If so, even being 2lbs well-in, would they run 7y-o Unioniste with 11-10? If he also defected you're looking at a 155-rated top-weight - the lowest since 2005.
As is his habit, Britain’s senior handicapper, Phil Smith, has compressed the differences between those horses at the top of the Grand National weights in order to give them more of a chance, topweights having generally had a tough time in the National. The result is that the following horses have less weight than they strictly ought to have:
Carlingford Lough 5lb well in
Lord Windermere 5lb well in
Many Clouds 5lb well in
Sam Winner 3lb well in
Boston Bob 3lb well in
Unioniste 2lb well in
Everyone else is off their current rating, except:
Alvarado 1lb worse off
Chance Du Roy 1lb worse off ...
both having run well over the National fences before. Smith has raised them 1lb each to make it more likely that they will make the cut for the race at the bottom end of the weights.
The compression at the top of the weights is the most low key since Smith introduced it as a factor for the National. The average topweight over the last 10 years, at this stage, has been 8lb well in. The 5lb of this year is the smallest figure Smith has ever used, because, he told me, so many of the horses at the head of the weights are “on the way up” or unexposed to some extent.
“I couldn’t take the risk” of giving these horses less weight, relative to the rest, Smith said. “You’re trying to entice them to run but you’re not trying to gift them the race.”
Soll and Wyck Hill both in the Eider Chase this Saturday
By Timeform -- published 17th February 2015
As the weights for the 2015 Crabbie’s Grand National are revealed, Timeform can also announce who tops their weight-adjusted ratings for the world’s most famous steeplechase on the 11th of April.
The Druids Nephew, who has run only four times for Neil Mulholland, winning at Huntingdon and second to fellow Grand National entrant Sam Winner at Cheltenham before shaping better than the result in both the Hennessy at Newbury and the Cleeve Hurdle, tops Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the 2015 Crabbies Grand National on 180.
On Tuesday, Timeform Jumps Handicapper Phil Turner said: “The Druids Nephew remains a handicap chaser to be interested in: his Cheltenham form could scarcely be stronger and since then he’s done remarkably well to get involved in the Hennessy after an early mistake and he went through the Cleeve as though in good heart.”
“He may or may not be a ‘National horse’, but he’s certainly a well-handicapped one.”
Others near the top of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings are Gold Cup hopeful Many Clouds (177+), Classic Chase third Shotgun Paddy and Kim Muir winner Spring Heeled (both 176). Current ante-post favourite Shutthefrontdoor, widely regarded as the horse likely to be AP McCoy’s ride in his final Grand National, is on 175p.
Turner added: “Shotgun Paddy and Spring Heeled are definite National types and have come out favourably at the weights. Shotgun Paddy’s connections will surely be heartened by what appears to be more give in the Aintree fences these days, though Spring Heeled has seemingly been campaigned with solely the National in mind since the Kim Muir and he could yet have more to offer.
“It’s also worth pointing out that Back In Focus (175+) would have been top ahead of The Druids Nephew on his very best form over fences. We’ve taken a cautious view for now, though, given he’s only very recently returned from a near two-year absence.”
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National:
180 The Druids Nephew
177+ Many Clouds
176 Shotgun Paddy, Spring Heeled
176? Double Ross
175p Shutthefrontdoor
175+ Back In Focus
175 Burton Port, Broadway Buffalo, Cause of Causes, Godsmejudge, Monbeg Dude, Theatrical Star
175? Ballycasey, Mountainous, Super Duty
174 Chance du Roy, Renard, Rocky Creek, Vintage Star
Selected others:
173 Balthazar King, Carlingford Lough
172 Lord Windermere, Merry King, Pineau de Re, Sam Winner, Teaforthree, Unioniste
OK. The weights are out – time to get start getting serious. Most runners’ profiles remain sensitive to the timing and quality of their preps and a potential rise in the weights from defections but two already have robust GN stat-profiles. While neither is likely to be my model's #1 selection come race-day both are certain of at very least “solid place potential” and I’ve taken the plunge at what I consider to be very attractive each way prices for 5 places. Both have weights that are workable even if they went up by 6lbs. Because only one bookie is offering the price on one I’ll cover him quickly now and post on the second shortly:
OSCAR TIME at 50/1 each way (BetVic 5 places). He may or may not turn out to be a final selection by my model – after today’s weights, he currently rates as “strong place potential” whatever the going and a Winning possibility on easy side of Good~GS. He needs to run creditably in his prep tomorrow (a veterans’ chase at Donny) to confirm or strengthen that but, at worst tomorrow, he’ll have solid place potential according to my model. A price as long as 50/1 e/w (5 places) for a horse with his record over the GN course can only be based on his advanced years. Understandably so – it would be a shock of epic proportions if a 14 year old won the GN, since no horse older than 12 has won it since 1923 and none older than 13 since 1853! Of the 34 GN runners aged 13+ since 1989 (3.5% of fields), the best placed was 5th and none has finished within 20L of the winner - the closest being 14 year-old Hello Bud, a gallant 21L 7th in 2012). HOWEVER, for the reasons set out below, he could easily defy his age and those odds and be there or thereabouts once again. 1. He has unusually low chase mileage with 20 under rules - 21 after his final prep tomorrow: a. Only 3 of the 34 13+y-o GN runners since 1989 had fewer chases to their name and of these: 1 had not run for 721 days and neither of the others had won a race in more than a year. b. 3 of the last 6 GN winners and 2 of the last 5 runners-up had at least 21 chase runs to their name. In fact, since 1990, 13 of the 24 GN winners had run in at least 21 chases - Montys Pass (2003) and Amberleigh House (2004) won it in their 37th and 38th chases respectively. 2. He has never finished out of the frame in 3 runs over the GN fences. He was 2.25L runner up with 10-09 in 2011 and won the Becher Chase impressively just 2 months ago but most notably, at the end of a truly terrible 2012-13 season (his return from an injury lay-off), he came to life in the GN and ran a blinder to finish 20L 4th with 10-11. This horse truly loves the place.
3. Today’s mark for the GN of 142 is fair enough - a 6lbs hike for his Becher win - and virtually guarantees a run. His GN 2nd and 4th were both off 145. Allocated 10-05 today, his stat-profile could withstand a significant rise in the weights.
4. Albeit starting with 2 hunter chases, current season form is impressive: 11UR1 and the UR came when challenging late on at Cheltenham.
5. He has a very respectable 70% “making-the-frame” ratio in chases. In fact, he has never PU’d and, excluding that 2012-13 injury-comeback season, has never failed to make the frame when completing a chase.
6. He would probably be at his best on GS or easy side of Good but, essentially, he handles all ground and has proven stamina, making the frame in all 3 chases to date at 29f+, including close 2nds on quick in the GN and on heavy in the 2010 Irish National.
7. Finally, though it’s not part of the model’s reckoning, he’ll have a (record) 6-time GN fence winning jockey on board.
Robert Waley-Cohen’S comments as owner after the weights’ announcement: "Obviously Oscar Time at the age of 14 will enjoy having as little weight as possible. He runs in the veterans' chase at Doncaster on Wednesday and that is the only run he's going to have between now and the National. He hasn't had a run since the Becher Chase. The intention is just to keep him mentally and physically sharp. He's in very good form."
Robert Waley-Cohen’S comments as owner after the weights’ announcement: "Obviously Oscar Time at the age of 14 will enjoy having as little weight as possible. He runs in the veterans' chase at Doncaster on Wednesday and that is the only run he's going to have between now and the National. He hasn't had a run since the Becher Chase. The intention is just to keep him mentally and physically sharp. He's in very good form."
ENJOY THE RIDE SAM!
?"He doesn’t get the National trip and he will be 14 in a few weeks, so he won’t run" -Robert Waley-Cohen Re Oscar Time
Robert Waley-Cohen’S comments as owner after the weights’ announcement: "Obviously Oscar Time at the age of 14 will enjoy having as little weight as possible. He runs in the veterans' chase at Doncaster on Wednesday and that is the only run he's going to have between now and the National. He hasn't had a run since the Becher Chase. The intention is just to keep him mentally and physically sharp. He's in very good form."
ENJOY THE RIDE SAM!
?"He doesn’t get the National trip and he will be 14 in a few weeks, so he won’t run" -Robert Waley-Cohen Re Oscar Time
LOL. Owners say the silliest things.....he'll get the trip.
Peanuts... Are there any among the favourites that your model says will fail to complete the course? This year i plan to lay a few horses on Betfair for a place. Non finishers would be an ideal choice.
Peanuts... Are there any among the favourites that your model says will fail to complete the course? This year i plan to lay a few horses on Betfair for a place. Non finishers would be an ideal choice.
I'm going to be particularly circumspect this year Len. Despite Trevor Hemmings' "dream" of the same season double, reported this morning, there remains the potential for a 6+lbs weight hike. I'm also determined not to repeat of my cock up last year when Pineau De Re was in fact 4th best (according to last year's model) and should have been on my betting slip but ended up rated joint 7th because of an input error. Costly screw up. I don't want to say specific runners can't win - my model would have led to that conclusion about Red Marauder before the 2001 race - but I will let you know in due course which of the shorter-priced runners the model doesn't rate. Unioniste is an obvious example because of his age. The model won't put a 7y-o on my betting slip, though he has more to his GN CV than the average 7y-o, being a French-bred (by Dom Alco, a staying sire of GN winner Neptune Collonges) and half brother to My Will (an early maturer and 3rd in the 2009 GN). TBH, I stopped laying GN runners after Ballabriggs bit into my profits in 2011
Peanuts: I have lumped on Oscar Time at 50-1 with Skybet (5 places but not NRNB) so fingers crossed he runs. You seem confident he will.
I've taken the plunge myself meldrew66 and have to trust the W-C's aren't screwing with us but, of course, they won't run the old boy if they think he's not "up for it". He certainly has been every time he's been to Aintree and never looked like a 13 y-o when winning the Becher 2 months ago. He runs this afternoon (Donny 3.25) for which he's one of the fancied runners along with Burton Port. There's always the chance that he fails to sparkle (today or back at home) and they call it a day but the intention to run (with Long Run out of the picture and Rajdhani Express yet to qualify) appears genuine. I'm not worried about trip - he wasn't running out of gas when 2.25L 2nd to (the "over-encouraged") Ballabriggs in 2011 and racehorses tend to get further with age (albeit they get slower, hence some cut would be preferred) . As I said, he may or may not end up as one of the top 4 selections by my model but at 50/1 and 5 places e/w, if he lines up on 11 April and avoids mis-fortune during the race, there's an excellent chance he'll give us a serious run for our money. He's not your average 13-14 y-o old GN runner and I've taken the ante-post price because I simply think he'll be latched onto for e/w value at some point - if he romps home today, it could be soon
Just thought I'd add this to the thread I've worked on my own formula and it's had the winner of 11 out of the last 12 Nationals,obviously with non runners and form reading on the day the list will become smaller.But after the weights have been announced this is the list I'm left with to work on and yes i know its not short but its a start as the winner is in there...........................i hope?! Roi Du Mee Balthazar King Back In Focus Living Next Door Night In Milan Al Co Godsmejudge Monbeg Dude Teaforthree The Rainbow Hunter Saint Are Wyck Hill Court By Surprise
Comments
Don't know for sure but I guess the HntCh route meant he could have less demanding preps; i.e. on favourable terms with lesser rated opposition rather than giving lumps of weight away in handicaps. Looks like he'll struggle to make the Festival Foxhunters though.
Providing he gets in the race of course.
Should get a run - better do because I'm on another 142-rated runner. He takes on your fella tomorrow
I ve been intrigued by this. He was disappointing when finishing 4th last week but 10-5 looks ok.
11-9 Many Clouds
11-8 Sam Winner
11-7 Boston Bob
These won't run in the national.
If he also defected you're looking at a 155-rated top-weight - the lowest since 2005.
Carlingford Lough 5lb well in
Lord Windermere 5lb well in
Many Clouds 5lb well in
Sam Winner 3lb well in
Boston Bob 3lb well in
Unioniste 2lb well in
Everyone else is off their current rating, except:
Alvarado 1lb worse off
Chance Du Roy 1lb worse off ...
both having run well over the National fences before. Smith has raised them 1lb each to make it more likely that they will make the cut for the race at the bottom end of the weights.
The compression at the top of the weights is the most low key since Smith introduced it as a factor for the National. The average topweight over the last 10 years, at this stage, has been 8lb well in. The 5lb of this year is the smallest figure Smith has ever used, because, he told me, so many of the horses at the head of the weights are “on the way up” or unexposed to some extent.
“I couldn’t take the risk” of giving these horses less weight, relative to the rest, Smith said. “You’re trying to entice them to run but you’re not trying to gift them the race.”
By Timeform -- published 17th February 2015
As the weights for the 2015 Crabbie’s Grand National are revealed, Timeform can also announce who tops their weight-adjusted ratings for the world’s most famous steeplechase on the 11th of April.
The Druids Nephew, who has run only four times for Neil Mulholland, winning at Huntingdon and second to fellow Grand National entrant Sam Winner at Cheltenham before shaping better than the result in both the Hennessy at Newbury and the Cleeve Hurdle, tops Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the 2015 Crabbies Grand National on 180.
On Tuesday, Timeform Jumps Handicapper Phil Turner said: “The Druids Nephew remains a handicap chaser to be interested in: his Cheltenham form could scarcely be stronger and since then he’s done remarkably well to get involved in the Hennessy after an early mistake and he went through the Cleeve as though in good heart.”
“He may or may not be a ‘National horse’, but he’s certainly a well-handicapped one.”
Others near the top of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings are Gold Cup hopeful Many Clouds (177+), Classic Chase third Shotgun Paddy and Kim Muir winner Spring Heeled (both 176). Current ante-post favourite Shutthefrontdoor, widely regarded as the horse likely to be AP McCoy’s ride in his final Grand National, is on 175p.
Turner added: “Shotgun Paddy and Spring Heeled are definite National types and have come out favourably at the weights. Shotgun Paddy’s connections will surely be heartened by what appears to be more give in the Aintree fences these days, though Spring Heeled has seemingly been campaigned with solely the National in mind since the Kim Muir and he could yet have more to offer.
“It’s also worth pointing out that Back In Focus (175+) would have been top ahead of The Druids Nephew on his very best form over fences. We’ve taken a cautious view for now, though, given he’s only very recently returned from a near two-year absence.”
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National:
180 The Druids Nephew
177+ Many Clouds
176 Shotgun Paddy, Spring Heeled
176? Double Ross
175p Shutthefrontdoor
175+ Back In Focus
175 Burton Port, Broadway Buffalo, Cause of Causes, Godsmejudge, Monbeg Dude, Theatrical Star
175? Ballycasey, Mountainous, Super Duty
174 Chance du Roy, Renard, Rocky Creek, Vintage Star
Selected others:
173 Balthazar King, Carlingford Lough
172 Lord Windermere, Merry King, Pineau de Re, Sam Winner, Teaforthree, Unioniste
171 Alvarado, Oscar Time
The weights are out – time to get start getting serious.
Most runners’ profiles remain sensitive to the timing and quality of their preps and a potential rise in the weights from defections but two already have robust GN stat-profiles. While neither is likely to be my model's #1 selection come race-day both are certain of at very least “solid place potential” and I’ve taken the plunge at what I consider to be very attractive each way prices for 5 places.
Both have weights that are workable even if they went up by 6lbs.
Because only one bookie is offering the price on one I’ll cover him quickly now and post on the second shortly:
OSCAR TIME at 50/1 each way (BetVic 5 places).
He may or may not turn out to be a final selection by my model – after today’s weights, he currently rates as “strong place potential” whatever the going and a Winning possibility on easy side of Good~GS. He needs to run creditably in his prep tomorrow (a veterans’ chase at Donny) to confirm or strengthen that but, at worst tomorrow, he’ll have solid place potential according to my model.
A price as long as 50/1 e/w (5 places) for a horse with his record over the GN course can only be based on his advanced years. Understandably so – it would be a shock of epic proportions if a 14 year old won the GN, since no horse older than 12 has won it since 1923 and none older than 13 since 1853! Of the 34 GN runners aged 13+ since 1989 (3.5% of fields), the best placed was 5th and none has finished within 20L of the winner - the closest being 14 year-old Hello Bud, a gallant 21L 7th in 2012).
HOWEVER, for the reasons set out below, he could easily defy his age and those odds and be there or thereabouts once again.
1. He has unusually low chase mileage with 20 under rules - 21 after his final prep tomorrow:
a. Only 3 of the 34 13+y-o GN runners since 1989 had fewer chases to their name and of these: 1 had not run for 721 days and neither of the others had won a race in more than a year.
b. 3 of the last 6 GN winners and 2 of the last 5 runners-up had at least 21 chase runs to their name. In fact, since 1990, 13 of the 24 GN winners had run in at least 21 chases - Montys Pass (2003) and Amberleigh House (2004) won it in their 37th and 38th chases respectively.
2. He has never finished out of the frame in 3 runs over the GN fences. He was 2.25L runner up with 10-09 in 2011 and won the Becher Chase impressively just 2 months ago but most notably, at the end of a truly terrible 2012-13 season (his return from an injury lay-off), he came to life in the GN and ran a blinder to finish 20L 4th with 10-11. This horse truly loves the place.
3. Today’s mark for the GN of 142 is fair enough - a 6lbs hike for his Becher win - and virtually guarantees a run. His GN 2nd and 4th were both off 145. Allocated 10-05 today, his stat-profile could withstand a significant rise in the weights.
4. Albeit starting with 2 hunter chases, current season form is impressive: 11UR1 and the UR came when challenging late on at Cheltenham.
5. He has a very respectable 70% “making-the-frame” ratio in chases. In fact, he has never PU’d and, excluding that 2012-13 injury-comeback season, has never failed to make the frame when completing a chase.
6. He would probably be at his best on GS or easy side of Good but, essentially, he handles all ground and has proven stamina, making the frame in all 3 chases to date at 29f+, including close 2nds on quick in the GN and on heavy in the 2010 Irish National.
7. Finally, though it’s not part of the model’s reckoning, he’ll have a (record) 6-time GN fence winning jockey on board.
Robert Waley-Cohen’S comments as owner after the weights’ announcement: "Obviously Oscar Time at the age of 14 will enjoy having as little weight as possible. He runs in the veterans' chase at Doncaster on Wednesday and that is the only run he's going to have between now and the National.
He hasn't had a run since the Becher Chase. The intention is just to keep him mentally and physically sharp. He's in very good form."
ENJOY THE RIDE SAM!
Despite Trevor Hemmings' "dream" of the same season double, reported this morning, there remains the potential for a 6+lbs weight hike.
I'm also determined not to repeat of my cock up last year when Pineau De Re was in fact 4th best (according to last year's model) and should have been on my betting slip but ended up rated joint 7th because of an input error. Costly screw up.
I don't want to say specific runners can't win - my model would have led to that conclusion about Red Marauder before the 2001 race - but I will let you know in due course which of the shorter-priced runners the model doesn't rate.
Unioniste is an obvious example because of his age. The model won't put a 7y-o on my betting slip, though he has more to his GN CV than the average 7y-o, being a French-bred (by Dom Alco, a staying sire of GN winner Neptune Collonges) and half brother to My Will (an early maturer and 3rd in the 2009 GN).
TBH, I stopped laying GN runners after Ballabriggs bit into my profits in 2011
He runs this afternoon (Donny 3.25) for which he's one of the fancied runners along with Burton Port. There's always the chance that he fails to sparkle (today or back at home) and they call it a day but the intention to run (with Long Run out of the picture and Rajdhani Express yet to qualify) appears genuine.
I'm not worried about trip - he wasn't running out of gas when 2.25L 2nd to (the "over-encouraged") Ballabriggs in 2011 and racehorses tend to get further with age (albeit they get slower, hence some cut would be preferred) .
As I said, he may or may not end up as one of the top 4 selections by my model but at 50/1 and 5 places e/w, if he lines up on 11 April and avoids mis-fortune during the race, there's an excellent chance he'll give us a serious run for our money.
He's not your average 13-14 y-o old GN runner and I've taken the ante-post price because I simply think he'll be latched onto for e/w value at some point - if he romps home today, it could be soon
Sad news.
Sad news for all concerned.
Roi Du Mee
Balthazar King
Back In Focus
Living Next Door
Night In Milan
Al Co
Godsmejudge
Monbeg Dude
Teaforthree
The Rainbow Hunter
Saint Are
Wyck Hill
Court By Surprise