peanuts, when covering the prep races the other week you didn't comment on AL Co who ran 3rd behind subsequent cheltenham winner Call the Cops over hurdles.
What do make of this Scottish national winner being primed for an Aintree attack?
Peanuts, we got a at a glance view of selections so far pal?
Not just yet Chief,
With the extra week gap after Cheltenham, there's still time for some important final preps, e.g. Teaforthree (nicely weighted) has a couple of hunter chase entries later this week.
There are a number on the radar screen for whom the weight issue is crucial. We should know more at the next forfeit stage (tomorrow week, I think) but if anyone picks up any updated info/gossip re the intentions regarding those at the top of the GN weights that ran in Gold Cup (Carlingford Lough, Lord Windermere, Many Clouds, Sam Winner, Boston Bob) it would be much appreciated if you could post it.
Coneygree's stellar GC win boosts Unioniste's claims and so, if that were to confirm his participation even with the possibility of top-weight, we're looking at a maximum 4lb rise in the weights, definitely too much for some well fancied runners, according to my model (e.g. Rocky Creek, though he could still run respectably).
As regards some of the other runners heading the market, even without a weights' rise but owing to inadequate preps (unless they sneak in a quick one next weekend), the model doesn't fancy any of: Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled, Balthazar King, or Godsmejudge (though it considers that the last two could run very creditably); and, though he may pose a bigger threat than any 7 year old for a long time, on age grounds alone Unioniste won't be appearing on my betting slip. Same goes for Cause of Causes.
That's (probably) taken out at least 6 of the top 12 in the market.
OSCAR TIME (50/1) already selected and others to come as soon as prudent - some maybe predictable, some maybe not.
Unfortunately, ground conditions will also be material to the chances of some and so there could be one or two slots left quite late.
After your 33/1 tip at Aintree would be rude not to.
Kind of you to remember but I'd strongly suggest prudence ahead of valour: 50/1 5 places NRNB with Bet365
Obviously as a 14 y-o he'd be a MAJOR stat-buster if he won but we're playing the percentages here and for the reasons mentioned above he's great e/w value.
In any case, the first novice winner of the GC for 41 years, why not the first GN winner older than 13 for 162 years? ................gulp!
Peanuts, we got a at a glance view of selections so far pal?
Not just yet Chief,
With the extra week gap after Cheltenham, there's still time for some important final preps, e.g. Teaforthree (nicely weighted) has a couple of hunter chase entries later this week.
There are a number on the radar screen for whom the weight issue is crucial. We should know more at the next forfeit stage (tomorrow week, I think) but if anyone picks up any updated info/gossip re the intentions regarding those at the top of the GN weights that ran in Gold Cup (Carlingford Lough, Lord Windermere, Many Clouds, Sam Winner, Boston Bob) it would be much appreciated if you could post it.
Coneygree's stellar GC win boosts Unioniste's claims and so, if that were to confirm his participation even with the possibility of top-weight, we're looking at a maximum 4lb rise in the weights, definitely too much for some well fancied runners, according to my model (e.g. Rocky Creek, though he could still run respectably).
As regards some of the other runners heading the market, even without a weights' rise but owing to inadequate preps (unless they sneak in a quick one next weekend), the model doesn't fancy any of: Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled, Balthazar King, or Godsmejudge (though it considers that the last two could run very creditably); and, though he may pose a bigger threat than any 7 year old for a long time, on age grounds alone Unioniste won't be appearing on my betting slip. Same goes for Cause of Causes.
That's (probably) taken out at least 6 of the top 12 in the market.
OSCAR TIME (50/1) already selected and others to come as soon as prudent - some maybe predictable, some maybe not.
Unfortunately, ground conditions will also be material to the chances of some and so there could be one or two slots left quite late.
More anon.
HOLD THE BACK PAGE:
Godsmejudge entered this morning for a 3m hurdle at Bangor on Saturday. Will re-evaluate afterwards, if he runs.
peanuts, when covering the prep races the other week you didn't comment on AL Co who ran 3rd behind subsequent cheltenham winner Call the Cops over hurdles.
What do make of this Scottish national winner being primed for an Aintree attack?
That was a decent run behind Call The Cops at Donny, as you say looking even better now.
Al Co's entered for another hurdle on Saturday (same 3m hurdle that Godsmejudge has an entry for at Bangor) and I'll be able to give you my model's rating after that.
My subjective view is that you've got to respect a horse that loves spring ground - Al Co is unbeaten in 3 chases in the months of April and May, including the last Scot Nat (carried 10-00). 4 wins from 7 chases at 3m+ is an impressive strike rate.
Allotted 10-08 for the GN he'll run off a mark of 145, 5lbs higher than at Ayr (140 is his highest winning OR). That doesn't rule him out by any means but, instead of mainly hurdle runs this season, Bowen might have been better off doing an Auroras' Encore with him. AE was also a spring ground lover and was a close 2nd with 10-11 in the Scot Nat a year prior to his GN victory. In between he was campaigned in chases on winter ground that he hated and, as a result, his OR had dropped 6lbs from Ayr to the GN weights'-framing. He ended up carrying 10-03 at Aintree. Al Co will carry at least 10-08 - a perfectly winnable weight but at level weights with Godsmejudge, on paper GMJ should be able to turn the tables, having gone down by 1.5L when conceding 5lbs to Al Co in the Scot Nat.
Al Co did make one appearance in a chase this season, the Becher chase in December on OK-ish ground but lumping top-weight (OR147). He jumped very ponderously before being pulled up - maybe it was a clumsy attempt to fool the handicapper but, if that was the mission, why not follow up with another moderate chase run? Maybe he just didn't really take to the fences or maybe it was simply the time of year - unplaced in 5 chases in November and December, placed once in 5 hurdles in those months.
We'll see what his stats look like after Saturday.
7 year old - no 7 y-o GN winner since 1940 and none of the 49 runners younger than 8y-o (5.1% of total fields) has made the frame or finished within 20L of any GN winner since 1989.
DOUBLE ROSS (not sure he'll line up), THE DRUIDS NEPHEW and MONBEG DUDE are the only 3 in just red and white (barring a colour change)...............could do very well with a couple of those
DOUBLE ROSS (not sure he'll line up), THE DRUIDS NEPHEW and MONBEG DUDE are the only 3 in just red and white (barring a colour change)...............could do very well with a couple of those
Nice one, that's where my bullseye will be going. Maybe £30 on The Druids and £10 ew on The Dude.
DOUBLE ROSS (not sure he'll line up), THE DRUIDS NEPHEW and MONBEG DUDE are the only 3 in just red and white (barring a colour change)...............could do very well with a couple of those
In the Post today The trainer of Druids Nephew said they were pleased with his run last week and he will take his chance. However Scudamore said that tests were being carried out on the Dude and they would wait to make a decision.
TBH Abs, they'd be better of taking Cause of Causes to the Irish and Broadway Buffalo to Ayr for the Scottish Nats. Great correlation between both of them and the 4m Novice chase at Cheltenham.
Butlers Cabin won at Cheltenham and doubled up at Fairyhouse in 2007. Shutthefrontdoor of course came close at Cheltenham last year and won the Irish the following month.
Novices that ran well in the 4m Festival novice chase and then in the Scot Nat:
Stormez 2003 (close 2nd both) Another Rum 2005 (won/3rd) Old Benny 2008 (won / 4th) Beshabar 2011 (2nd / won) Godsmejudge 2013 (3rd / won)
TBH Abs, they'd be better of taking Cause of Causes to the Irish and Broadway Buffalo to Ayr for the Scottish Nats. Great correlation between both of them and the 4m Novice chase at Cheltenham.
Butlers Cabin won at Cheltenham and doubled up at Fairyhouse in 2007. Shutthefrontdoor of course came close at Cheltenham last year and won the Irish the following month.
Novices that ran well in the 4m Festival novice chase and then in the Scot Nat:
Stormez 2003 (close 2nd both) Another Rum 2005 (won/3rd) Old Benny 2008 (won / 4th) Beshabar 2011 (2nd / won) Godsmejudge 2013 (3rd / won)
Aintree too big an ask this year IMHO.
BB is well in compared with COC at the weights. If it runs then 50-1 is a great price even if only looking at a place.
DOUBLE ROSS (not sure he'll line up), THE DRUIDS NEPHEW and MONBEG DUDE are the only 3 in just red and white (barring a colour change)...............could do very well with a couple of those
In the Post today The trainer of Druids Nephew said they were pleased with his run last week and he will take his chance. However Scudamore said that tests were being carried out on the Dude and they would wait to make a decision.
T43 has been scratched from both Hunter Chases for which he had entries (today and tomorrow). It's obviously possible that they've decided to go straight to Aintree but I'm wondering (pure conjecture) whether he's considered not quite right. We'll see.
If he does run he's undeniably very nicely weighted but a lightish, low grade campaign with last run 56 days ago means moderate place potential at best, according to my model.
@PeanutsMolloy how many boxes on your model did last years winner tick?
Ive got a gut feeling to put a NRNB on Rolling Aces, but i cant see him being high up on your model.
I don't really have boxes - I do but it's a score-based system with the scales adjusted according to weight and (separately) age. As regards PdR the bottom line is that I screwed it up last year with him. I gave him a penalty for lack of success at major LH jumps tracks that I shouldn't have given him. Without that mistaken penalty he'd have ranked 4th prior to the race on decent ground (which we got). Now, #1 choice T43 UR'd but PdR beat #2 and 3 selections (Monbeg Dude and Chance Du Roy) well and so the model has been tweaked to account for the fact that he did better still (the main tweak for him being to give more weight to his fine run in the Pertemps Final at the Festival - treating it like it was a chase, which is not unreasonable as it is always highly competitive and clearly a stayers' test). As regards Rolling Aces, I won't be having him myself but I've learnt to my cost over the years not to rule any horse out and, if you fancy him strongly, go with him. How does the 2015 model rate him? On the plus side, he ran well in the Grand Sefton over the GN fences in December with a big weight. The principal negative is that every winner and horse finishing <20L of the winner since 1988 that carried 11-02+ has had a prior win or near-miss at 26f+. Obviously he's been allotted 11-03 but he could well have to carry more than that. Now he has only ever raced in chases twice at 3m+ (that too is a negative if carrying 11-00+, according to my model - again no winner or <20L finisher) and has never raced beyond 24.5f. He's run well both times (and won a 3m novice hurdle) and looked like he would get further on each occasion. Was a close 2nd in the 2013 Racing Post Chase, though the winner of that (Opening Batsman) has since gone off form somewhat and I'm not sure that was a great renewal of that race. Breeding also probably favourable for getting further (sire is a bit unknown but dam-sire Roselier a renowned sire of staying chasers and fathered GN winners Royal athlete and Bindaree and twice runner up Suny Bay) The other negative from my model's perspective is that he won't have run for 100 days. There have been horses that have gone close with 100+ day break (Durham Edition in 1990 0.75L 2nd [102], Mely Moss in 2000 1.25L 2nd [345], Clan Royal in 2004 3L 2nd [132]) but it is a negative stat. What can I say? You've probably picked the winner
In the Post today Jim Dreaper said that Aintree is the target for Goonyella but they are concerned he might not make the cut and they may decide to run in the Irish National as plan B.
In the Post today Jim Dreaper said that Aintree is the target for Goonyella but they are concerned he might not make the cut and they may decide to run in the Irish National as plan B.
Tricky judgement to make that - the Irish is on the previous Monday (April 6), which also happens to be the 5-day Confirmation Stage for the GN on 11th. 9 came out between the Confirmation Stage and the race last year. Touch and go.
Comments
What do make of this Scottish national winner being primed for an Aintree attack?
Not just yet Chief,
With the extra week gap after Cheltenham, there's still time for some important final preps, e.g. Teaforthree (nicely weighted) has a couple of hunter chase entries later this week.
There are a number on the radar screen for whom the weight issue is crucial. We should know more at the next forfeit stage (tomorrow week, I think) but if anyone picks up any updated info/gossip re the intentions regarding those at the top of the GN weights that ran in Gold Cup (Carlingford Lough, Lord Windermere, Many Clouds, Sam Winner, Boston Bob) it would be much appreciated if you could post it.
Coneygree's stellar GC win boosts Unioniste's claims and so, if that were to confirm his participation even with the possibility of top-weight, we're looking at a maximum 4lb rise in the weights, definitely too much for some well fancied runners, according to my model (e.g. Rocky Creek, though he could still run respectably).
As regards some of the other runners heading the market, even without a weights' rise but owing to inadequate preps (unless they sneak in a quick one next weekend), the model doesn't fancy any of: Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled, Balthazar King, or Godsmejudge (though it considers that the last two could run very creditably); and, though he may pose a bigger threat than any 7 year old for a long time, on age grounds alone Unioniste won't be appearing on my betting slip. Same goes for Cause of Causes.
That's (probably) taken out at least 6 of the top 12 in the market.
OSCAR TIME (50/1) already selected and others to come as soon as prudent - some maybe predictable, some maybe not.
Unfortunately, ground conditions will also be material to the chances of some and so there could be one or two slots left quite late.
More anon.
After your 33/1 tip at Aintree would be rude not to.
Obviously as a 14 y-o he'd be a MAJOR stat-buster if he won but we're playing the percentages here and for the reasons mentioned above he's great e/w value.
In any case, the first novice winner of the GC for 41 years, why not the first GN winner older than 13 for 162 years?
................gulp!
Broadway Buffalo looks interesting.
Godsmejudge entered this morning for a 3m hurdle at Bangor on Saturday. Will re-evaluate afterwards, if he runs.
That was a decent run behind Call The Cops at Donny, as you say looking even better now.
Al Co's entered for another hurdle on Saturday (same 3m hurdle that Godsmejudge has an entry for at Bangor) and I'll be able to give you my model's rating after that.
My subjective view is that you've got to respect a horse that loves spring ground - Al Co is unbeaten in 3 chases in the months of April and May, including the last Scot Nat (carried 10-00). 4 wins from 7 chases at 3m+ is an impressive strike rate.
Allotted 10-08 for the GN he'll run off a mark of 145, 5lbs higher than at Ayr (140 is his highest winning OR). That doesn't rule him out by any means but, instead of mainly hurdle runs this season, Bowen might have been better off doing an Auroras' Encore with him. AE was also a spring ground lover and was a close 2nd with 10-11 in the Scot Nat a year prior to his GN victory. In between he was campaigned in chases on winter ground that he hated and, as a result, his OR had dropped 6lbs from Ayr to the GN weights'-framing. He ended up carrying 10-03 at Aintree. Al Co will carry at least 10-08 - a perfectly winnable weight but at level weights with Godsmejudge, on paper GMJ should be able to turn the tables, having gone down by 1.5L when conceding 5lbs to Al Co in the Scot Nat.
Al Co did make one appearance in a chase this season, the Becher chase in December on OK-ish ground but lumping top-weight (OR147). He jumped very ponderously before being pulled up - maybe it was a clumsy attempt to fool the handicapper but, if that was the mission, why not follow up with another moderate chase run? Maybe he just didn't really take to the fences or maybe it was simply the time of year - unplaced in 5 chases in November and December, placed once in 5 hurdles in those months.
We'll see what his stats look like after Saturday.
novice - no novice winner of GN since 1958
However Scudamore said that tests were being carried out on the Dude and they would wait to make a decision.
Great correlation between both of them and the 4m Novice chase at Cheltenham.
Butlers Cabin won at Cheltenham and doubled up at Fairyhouse in 2007.
Shutthefrontdoor of course came close at Cheltenham last year and won the Irish the following month.
Novices that ran well in the 4m Festival novice chase and then in the Scot Nat:
Stormez 2003 (close 2nd both)
Another Rum 2005 (won/3rd)
Old Benny 2008 (won / 4th)
Beshabar 2011 (2nd / won)
Godsmejudge 2013 (3rd / won)
Aintree too big an ask this year IMHO.
It's obviously possible that they've decided to go straight to Aintree but I'm wondering (pure conjecture) whether he's considered not quite right. We'll see.
If he does run he's undeniably very nicely weighted but a lightish, low grade campaign with last run 56 days ago means moderate place potential at best, according to my model.
Ive got a gut feeling to put a NRNB on Rolling Aces, but i cant see him being high up on your model.
As regards PdR the bottom line is that I screwed it up last year with him. I gave him a penalty for lack of success at major LH jumps tracks that I shouldn't have given him.
Without that mistaken penalty he'd have ranked 4th prior to the race on decent ground (which we got).
Now, #1 choice T43 UR'd but PdR beat #2 and 3 selections (Monbeg Dude and Chance Du Roy) well and so the model has been tweaked to account for the fact that he did better still (the main tweak for him being to give more weight to his fine run in the Pertemps Final at the Festival - treating it like it was a chase, which is not unreasonable as it is always highly competitive and clearly a stayers' test).
As regards Rolling Aces, I won't be having him myself but I've learnt to my cost over the years not to rule any horse out and, if you fancy him strongly, go with him.
How does the 2015 model rate him?
On the plus side, he ran well in the Grand Sefton over the GN fences in December with a big weight.
The principal negative is that every winner and horse finishing <20L of the winner since 1988 that carried 11-02+ has had a prior win or near-miss at 26f+. Obviously he's been allotted 11-03 but he could well have to carry more than that.
Now he has only ever raced in chases twice at 3m+ (that too is a negative if carrying 11-00+, according to my model - again no winner or <20L finisher) and has never raced beyond 24.5f. He's run well both times (and won a 3m novice hurdle) and looked like he would get further on each occasion. Was a close 2nd in the 2013 Racing Post Chase, though the winner of that (Opening Batsman) has since gone off form somewhat and I'm not sure that was a great renewal of that race.
Breeding also probably favourable for getting further (sire is a bit unknown but dam-sire Roselier a renowned sire of staying chasers and fathered GN winners Royal athlete and Bindaree and twice runner up Suny Bay)
The other negative from my model's perspective is that he won't have run for 100 days. There have been horses that have gone close with 100+ day break (Durham Edition in 1990 0.75L 2nd [102], Mely Moss in 2000 1.25L 2nd [345], Clan Royal in 2004 3L 2nd [132]) but it is a negative stat.
What can I say? You've probably picked the winner
GN 11 April