Not in front of my spreadsheet at the mo Chief (can give you a fuller view later this afternoon) but he's another (like Soll) that's clearly benefitted from a change of trainer this season - Tom George is under-rated IMO and is doing a great job with him. Fine 3rd in the Becher chase in Dec. From memory my model rates him as a strong run but no cigar potential. Because TG has done such a good job he's gone up the handicap a lot and while that's guaranteed him a run and he's still off a nice racing weight (allotted 10.06) he' s significantly worse off at the weights with Oscar Time and, especially, Chance Du Roy based on the Becher Chase. On paper he's also well held by The Druids Nephew and Sam Winner aswell based upon his 3rd in the 3.5m chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season, though he'd prefer the better ground he'll likely see in April. I like the horse but this is a seriously competitve GN and my model just doesn't quite score him highly enough for my betting slip......but it's not infallible!!!
EDIT - checked the old spreadsheet and nothing to add to the above. Definite strong show candidate but (as rated by model) on Good or GS about 20L off winning calibre (sounds a lot but that could still be minor place territory)......anyway, difficult to imagine I know, but the model could be wrong.
Not in front of my spreadsheet at the mo Chief (can give you a fuller view later this afternoon) but he's another (like Soll) that's clearly benefitted from a change of trainer this season - Tom George is under-rated IMO and is doing a great job with him. Fine 3rd in the Becher chase in Dec. From memory my model rates him as a strong run but no cigar potential. Because TG has done such a good job he's gone up the handicap a lot and while that's guaranteed him a run and he's still off a nice racing weight (allotted 10.06) he' s significantly worse off at the weights with Oscar Time and, especially, Chance Du Roy based on the Becher Chase. On paper he's also well held by The Druids Nephew and Sam Winner aswell based upon his 3rd in the 3.5m chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season, though he'd prefer the better ground he'll likely see in April. I like the horse but this is a seriously competitve GN and my model just doesn't quite score him highly enough for my betting slip......but it's not infallible!!!
Not infallible?? Now you tell me, Peanuts - my entire future retirement plans are resting on this!
As suspected, sadly T43 is out of the GN with recurrence of old injury. Great shame.
One of my early bets gone already . Paul Townend came over to ride yesterday for Rebecca Curtis at Fos Las and was supposed to have a school after racing on T43
As suspected, sadly T43 is out of the GN with recurrence of old injury. Great shame.
One of my early bets gone already . Paul Townend came over to ride yesterday for Rebecca Curtis at Fos Las and was supposed to have a school after racing on T43
Bad luck Chief, he'd have had a strong chance at the weights if he'd have been fit. One more try next year maybe.
Here are some stats that may help? In the last 15 Grand Nationals all the winners have won a Class 2 or higher Chase,also won a Chase over 3 mile plus and have had 19 or more races over both hurdles and fences.Plus 136 horses have run with some kind of headgear on and there has only been 1 winner and 6 place.
Here are some stats that may help? In the last 15 Grand Nationals all the winners have won a Class 2 or higher Chase,also won a Chase over 3 mile plus and have had 19 or more races over both hurdles and fences.Plus 136 horses have run with some kind of headgear on and there has only been 1 winner and 6 place.
The only one I'm strong on from my original list Peanuts is Balthazar King and have managed to get 20/1 on him
Nice price KK. Best of luck.
Just on the headgear point you make. It's a very good one.
Stats should some logical basis to them so that they are not just statistical curiosities. There is a sound logical basis to headgear (particularly blinkers and visors) being a possible negative because of course it may be that the unique event that the GN is unnerves some horses particularly when their vision is constrained (blimey, that will get all the ANTIs going).
Going back to 1989~99, before the 15 GNs your stat refers to, it certainly used to be a rule of thumb that you didn't want to back a horse with blinkers (the principal headgear used or at least recorded until 1999), though that didn't stop Garrison Savannah nearly doing the GC/GN same-season double in blinkers and Earth Summit actually doing the same-season WN/GN double in 1997/98.
Nonetheless the % failure rate was as high then as it is now.
However, there is a counter-logic to the stat. The fact is that trainers who are searching for some improvement or are stumped as to moderate recent form often resort to some form of headgear in the hope that it will produce something positive. That seems to be a sharply increasing trend and in last year's GN almost half the field (18 runners) wore one or more B, V P or T. It may simply be that, for a number of these failures, the horses weren't great chances anyway.
That is in itself a reason to be sceptical about a runner with headgear of course but, similarly, if a horse is good enough, the headgear may still be a benefit (or at least not a hindrance) to it doing the business - like Whats Up Boys (close 2nd in 2002 with Blinkers), Silver Birch (won with T-Tie in 2007 and McKelvey close 2nd to him with C-Pieces), Comply Or Die (won 2008 in Blinkers) and Black Apalachi (close 2nd with C-Pieces in 2010).
Your stat is absolutely right and well worth considering but (and I know you're not suggesting this) I would be very careful about putting a line through a runner simply because it's wearing headgear.
Aidan Coleman booked to ride The Druids Nephew . He deserves a change in luck after picking Stan in front of Mon Mome in 2009.
Thanks for that Starinnaddick. I'd forgotten he'd opted for Stan. Another one that went to the stable's apparent 2nd string. I mean NOBODY fancied Mon Mome..........well almost nobody
I'd check that PM. Currently only 5 places and "grey text" states:
Enhanced place terms apply to bets on Grand National race winner market from Saturday 4th Apr 2015 until 16:15 Saturday 11th April 2015. Internet, mobile and phone bets only. Excludes extra markets and Tote bets.
I'd check that PM. Currently only 5 places and "grey text" states:
Enhanced place terms apply to bets on Grand National race winner market from Saturday 4th Apr 2015 until 16:15 Saturday 11th April 2015. Internet, mobile and phone bets only. Excludes extra markets and Tote bets.
Thanks for that AA.
WTF. I just went on to their website and it was showing 6 places NRNB. Placed an e/w on CDR. Now my betslip shows 5 places. Gonna ring the buggers.
I'd check that PM. Currently only 5 places and "grey text" states:
Enhanced place terms apply to bets on Grand National race winner market from Saturday 4th Apr 2015 until 16:15 Saturday 11th April 2015. Internet, mobile and phone bets only. Excludes extra markets and Tote bets.
Thanks for that AA.
WTF. I just went on to their website and it was showing 6 places NRNB. Placed an e/w on CDR. Now my betslip shows 5 places. Gonna ring the buggers.
Sorry folks.
I doubt much damage has been done PM. With the hour lost it's still only 7.00 on a Sunday morning and I would think it's only the cricket fans that are up at this time ;-)
I'd check that PM. Currently only 5 places and "grey text" states:
Enhanced place terms apply to bets on Grand National race winner market from Saturday 4th Apr 2015 until 16:15 Saturday 11th April 2015. Internet, mobile and phone bets only. Excludes extra markets and Tote bets.
Much appreciate the correction Chief. I was going to ring them to get the extra I wanted approved but at least I've saved myself that. They confirmed what you'd said of course so that'll teach me. Cheers.
I'd check that PM. Currently only 5 places and "grey text" states:
Enhanced place terms apply to bets on Grand National race winner market from Saturday 4th Apr 2015 until 16:15 Saturday 11th April 2015. Internet, mobile and phone bets only. Excludes extra markets and Tote bets.
Much appreciate the correction Chief. I was going to ring them to get the extra I wanted approved but at least I've saved myself that. They confirmed what you'd said of course so that'll teach me. Cheers.
Peanuts, don't worry you weren't under starter's orders.
I do think it's a bit naughty of VC to advertise those terms now, given that you can't benefit from them for another six days.
Mind you I'm not going to be too hard on them as they settled my Christmas TV top show as a winner. And I'm still waiting on Coral via IBAS to answer exactly why they settled the same bet a loser!
Many Clouds confirmed as an intended runner with Leighton Aspell on board. PDR will need a new jockey. If MC's declared on Thursday week, that would limit any weight rise to 1lb maximum and, if so, the cynic in me expects Sam Winner to be a non-runner.
Emma Lavelle reported that Court By Surprise will run and will be ridden by Daryl Jacob, It will be her first runner in GN and she has not run the horse since November to keep it fresh.
Comments
From memory my model rates him as a strong run but no cigar potential. Because TG has done such a good job he's gone up the handicap a lot and while that's guaranteed him a run and he's still off a nice racing weight (allotted 10.06) he' s significantly worse off at the weights with Oscar Time and, especially, Chance Du Roy based on the Becher Chase.
On paper he's also well held by The Druids Nephew and Sam Winner aswell based upon his 3rd in the 3.5m chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season, though he'd prefer the better ground he'll likely see in April.
I like the horse but this is a seriously competitve GN and my model just doesn't quite score him highly enough for my betting slip......but it's not infallible!!!
EDIT - checked the old spreadsheet and nothing to add to the above. Definite strong show candidate but (as rated by model) on Good or GS about 20L off winning calibre (sounds a lot but that could still be minor place territory)......anyway, difficult to imagine I know, but the model could be wrong.
.........no worries......no one's told the horse.
Just on the headgear point you make. It's a very good one.
Stats should some logical basis to them so that they are not just statistical curiosities. There is a sound logical basis to headgear (particularly blinkers and visors) being a possible negative because of course it may be that the unique event that the GN is unnerves some horses particularly when their vision is constrained (blimey, that will get all the ANTIs going).
Going back to 1989~99, before the 15 GNs your stat refers to, it certainly used to be a rule of thumb that you didn't want to back a horse with blinkers (the principal headgear used or at least recorded until 1999), though that didn't stop Garrison Savannah nearly doing the GC/GN same-season double in blinkers and Earth Summit actually doing the same-season WN/GN double in 1997/98.
Nonetheless the % failure rate was as high then as it is now.
However, there is a counter-logic to the stat. The fact is that trainers who are searching for some improvement or are stumped as to moderate recent form often resort to some form of headgear in the hope that it will produce something positive. That seems to be a sharply increasing trend and in last year's GN almost half the field (18 runners) wore one or more B, V P or T. It may simply be that, for a number of these failures, the horses weren't great chances anyway.
That is in itself a reason to be sceptical about a runner with headgear of course but, similarly, if a horse is good enough, the headgear may still be a benefit (or at least not a hindrance) to it doing the business - like Whats Up Boys (close 2nd in 2002 with Blinkers), Silver Birch (won with T-Tie in 2007 and McKelvey close 2nd to him with C-Pieces), Comply Or Die (won 2008 in Blinkers) and Black Apalachi (close 2nd with C-Pieces in 2010).
Your stat is absolutely right and well worth considering but (and I know you're not suggesting this) I would be very careful about putting a line through a runner simply because it's wearing headgear.
He deserves a change in luck after picking Stan in front of Mon Mome in 2009.
Enhanced place terms apply to bets on Grand National race winner market from Saturday 4th Apr 2015 until 16:15 Saturday 11th April 2015. Internet, mobile and phone bets only. Excludes extra markets and Tote bets.
183 all out off 45 from 150-3. Very disappointing.
WTF. I just went on to their website and it was showing 6 places NRNB. Placed an e/w on CDR. Now my betslip shows 5 places.
Gonna ring the buggers.
Sorry folks.
Hope it's only me that placed a bet (at least they didn't accept the full amount)
They confirmed what you'd said of course so that'll teach me.
Cheers.
Mind you I'm not going to be too hard on them as they settled my Christmas TV top show as a winner. And I'm still waiting on Coral via IBAS to answer exactly why they settled the same bet a loser!
If MC's declared on Thursday week, that would limit any weight rise to 1lb maximum and, if so, the cynic in me expects Sam Winner to be a non-runner.
It will be her first runner in GN and she has not run the horse since November to keep it fresh.