All the constant stuff about McCoy is starting to get on my nerves now.
Sorely tempted to lay it on Betfair Win market if (when) it gets seriously backed down to silly prices on raceday. Model doesn't rate STFD at all - weight, lack of chase mileage, inadequate campaign.....that's torn it!
NB Model is NOT INFALLIBLE folks - bet (and especially lay) responsibly!!
To be honest Peanuts, i've already done this mate. Can see STFD going off at something daft like 7/2, 4/1.
Backed it at 9.8 on Betfair with 300 on Monday night, i looked yesterday and it was already gone in to 8.4
All the constant stuff about McCoy is starting to get on my nerves now.
Sorely tempted to lay it on Betfair Win market if (when) it gets seriously backed down to silly prices on raceday. Model doesn't rate STFD at all - weight, lack of chase mileage, inadequate campaign.....that's torn it!
NB Model is NOT INFALLIBLE folks - bet (and especially lay) responsibly!!
To be honest Peanuts, i've already done this mate. Can see STFD going off at something daft like 7/2, 4/1.
Backed it at 9.8 on Betfair with 300 on Monday night, i looked yesterday and it was already gone in to 8.4
Presumably a lot of people with the same idea
I already took my profits on a backed position (taken when he was 25s and sold it at 13 or so - like printing money ). There's certainly more juice in it but I'm looking to lay him if he gets down to the 7/2 territory and hold the position for the race - not to a significant liability but as my model doesn't rate his chances I'll try and profit from all the housewives thinking otherwise. If you are going to hold your backed position for more profit, just watch out for the change from the ante-post to the raceday market on Betfair (next Thursday I guess). If you haven't closed out your long, I think I'm right in saying that you can't net off a backed position ante post with a lay on the raceday market - they are 2 different markets. So unless you have an adequate cash balance on Betfair to cover the lay liability you need to close out the ante post backed position before that market closes - might be a few others doing the same so you might not want to cut it too fine. Have fun!!
For what it is worth, the first Turftrax going map issued today for Aintree. As of this morning the GN course was mainly GS with a number of Soft places. Mildmay and hurdles: GS with a few Good places. Forecast suggests it will be predominantly drying weather over the coming week.
Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch...said: "I would expect us to be watering both courses at some point and, if the forecast is in any way accurate, we'll be looking to race on ground on the easy side of good.
We had 15mm of rain on Monday but the track just drank it up. The weather is now set to dry up with conditions becoming brighter and a tad warmer. We might have a few showers, but they aren't due to bring much, and with soil temperatures rising and the ground drying very quickly at this time of year, I do think we'll be watering."
OK, this is where I get into really sad statto mode, trying to anticipate the real (rather than the officially described) going.
Bear in mind that, since 2012, for safety reasons the stated target ground for all 3 days of the meeting is not quicker than Easy side of Good (i.e. a mix of Good and GS) but also that the official going description is rarely accurate (or, to put it kindly, there is a meaningful margin of error!).
For example, compare the official going for these 4 GNs with the Racing Post's time-based descriptions (which are consistent with my own time-based estimates):
So the records show that the 2009 and 2014 GNs appeared to be run on essentially identical ground. Yet, in reality, one was on Soft ground, the other on proper Good. Adjusting for the 100 yard difference in trip, Mon Mome would have finished 1 furlong (!!) (60L) behind Pineau De Re at the respective paces of those 2 GNs. Identical going? I think not.
In my opinion, also, the 2010, 2011 and 2012 GNs were all run on ground that was meaningfully quicker than the Official "Good" - they clocked 3 of the 6 quickest GNs on record and IMO, sadly, this was the principal cause of the increased fatalities.
So, what can we expect for next Saturday?
The forecast is for drying weather next week with plenty of sunshine. The fact that the Clerk of the Course considers that the ground was already dry enough to absorb readily this week's rain suggests that they should be fairly liberal with watering, as he has indicated they will be.
One possibility is that, with significant precautionary watering, they could inadvertently set up a softer ground GN if there is unexpected rain late in the week. Particularly rain on the morning of the race can rapidly change the going at Aintree, even with the drainage installed in recent years. We shouldn't see the mudbaths of 1994, 1998 and 2001 but rain on raceday morning in 2006 and 2009 most certainly turned the going significantly slower than the official description and, very likely, affected the result.
HOWEVER, it is more likely that another scenario is realised - that watering occurs but is somewhat restrained under the influence of moaning trainers with Good-ground horses. If the forecast turns out to be accurate, the actual going could be, like last year, proper Good ground and not the officially targeted and (come what may) described GS(Gd places) or Gd(GS places) (i.e. Easy side of Good). For PR reasons, they can now never admit to it being quicker than that of course.
So, what's all that got to do with the price of fish?
Well, as regards my 2 ante-post e/w selections, neither Chance Du Roy nor Oscar Time will be impacted significantly (though OT would have his best chance with some genuine ease in the ground) but for the others on the radar screen, the going will be more meaningful as regards the model's relative rating of their chances (and in one case whether it even runs). In such a competitive race (resulting from the likely zero weights-rise) I'm going to be very circumspect with the remaining selections.
More anon.
In any event, I'll be timing the Foxhunters on Thursday and Topham on Friday to get an idea on the true going on the GN course.
Well CHG, it's a bit of a sprint for my taste but I have been known to dabble in the Irish GN occasionally (with mixed fortunes!). I did a quick and dirty elimination stat-screen yesterday but only managed to knock out 20 of the 30 runners.
10 left standing were: 7,10,16,19,23,25,27,28,29,30
Doesn't get us very far but, since my last Irish National winner was the tough mare Bluesea Cracker in 2010, I'll take a chance on another:
27 She's Got Grit 33/1
and the winner of the XC at the Cheltenham Festival
Home Farm, Double Ross, Hadrian's Approach, Benvolio, Teaforthree, Merry King, Renard and Sydney Paget all scratched at today's confirmation stage. Cut off at the moment in the 10.02s as expected - Soll, Ely Brown and Royale Knight make the cut. The Package needs 4 and Broadway Buffalo 5 to come out to line up.
Comments
Have to confess I come over all drowsy when I'm reading your posts too
Chance Du Roy 40/1 each way
Oscar Time 50/1 each way
AN Other (to come)
£50 on A N Other it is then.
The Lord worketh in mysterious ways.
Backed it at 9.8 on Betfair with 300 on Monday night, i looked yesterday and it was already gone in to 8.4
Presumably a lot of people with the same idea
If you are going to hold your backed position for more profit, just watch out for the change from the ante-post to the raceday market on Betfair (next Thursday I guess). If you haven't closed out your long, I think I'm right in saying that you can't net off a backed position ante post with a lay on the raceday market - they are 2 different markets. So unless you have an adequate cash balance on Betfair to cover the lay liability you need to close out the ante post backed position before that market closes - might be a few others doing the same so you might not want to cut it too fine.
Have fun!!
As of this morning the GN course was mainly GS with a number of Soft places.
Mildmay and hurdles: GS with a few Good places.
Forecast suggests it will be predominantly drying weather over the coming week.
Channel 4 new advert for the GN15.
Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch...said: "I would expect us to be watering both courses at some point and, if the forecast is in any way accurate, we'll be looking to race on ground on the easy side of good.
We had 15mm of rain on Monday but the track just drank it up. The weather is now set to dry up with conditions becoming brighter and a tad warmer. We might have a few showers, but they aren't due to bring much, and with soil temperatures rising and the ground drying very quickly at this time of year, I do think we'll be watering."
When i googled it, it came up with Shut The F**k Down !
OK, this is where I get into really sad statto mode, trying to anticipate the real (rather than the officially described) going.
Bear in mind that, since 2012, for safety reasons the stated target ground for all 3 days of the meeting is not quicker than Easy side of Good (i.e. a mix of Good and GS) but also that the official going description is rarely accurate (or, to put it kindly, there is a meaningful margin of error!).
For example, compare the official going for these 4 GNs with the Racing Post's time-based descriptions (which are consistent with my own time-based estimates):
2006: Official: GS / Racing Post: Soft
2009: Official: GS (Gd places) / RP: Soft
2013: Official: GS (Gd places) / RP: GS
2014: Official: GS (Gd places) / RP: Good
So the records show that the 2009 and 2014 GNs appeared to be run on essentially identical ground. Yet, in reality, one was on Soft ground, the other on proper Good. Adjusting for the 100 yard difference in trip, Mon Mome would have finished 1 furlong (!!) (60L) behind Pineau De Re at the respective paces of those 2 GNs. Identical going? I think not.
In my opinion, also, the 2010, 2011 and 2012 GNs were all run on ground that was meaningfully quicker than the Official "Good" - they clocked 3 of the 6 quickest GNs on record and IMO, sadly, this was the principal cause of the increased fatalities.
So, what can we expect for next Saturday?
The forecast is for drying weather next week with plenty of sunshine. The fact that the Clerk of the Course considers that the ground was already dry enough to absorb readily this week's rain suggests that they should be fairly liberal with watering, as he has indicated they will be.
One possibility is that, with significant precautionary watering, they could inadvertently set up a softer ground GN if there is unexpected rain late in the week. Particularly rain on the morning of the race can rapidly change the going at Aintree, even with the drainage installed in recent years. We shouldn't see the mudbaths of 1994, 1998 and 2001 but rain on raceday morning in 2006 and 2009 most certainly turned the going significantly slower than the official description and, very likely, affected the result.
HOWEVER, it is more likely that another scenario is realised - that watering occurs but is somewhat restrained under the influence of moaning trainers with Good-ground horses. If the forecast turns out to be accurate, the actual going could be, like last year, proper Good ground and not the officially targeted and (come what may) described GS(Gd places) or Gd(GS places) (i.e. Easy side of Good). For PR reasons, they can now never admit to it being quicker than that of course.
So, what's all that got to do with the price of fish?
Well, as regards my 2 ante-post e/w selections, neither Chance Du Roy nor Oscar Time will be impacted significantly (though OT would have his best chance with some genuine ease in the ground) but for the others on the radar screen, the going will be more meaningful as regards the model's relative rating of their chances (and in one case whether it even runs). In such a competitive race (resulting from the likely zero weights-rise) I'm going to be very circumspect with the remaining selections.
More anon.
In any event, I'll be timing the Foxhunters on Thursday and Topham on Friday to get an idea on the true going on the GN course.
10 left standing were: 7,10,16,19,23,25,27,28,29,30
Doesn't get us very far but, since my last Irish National winner was the tough mare Bluesea Cracker in 2010, I'll take a chance on another:
27 She's Got Grit 33/1
and the winner of the XC at the Cheltenham Festival
16 Rivage D'Or 25/1
Both e/w 5 places, naturally.
Very, very low conviction.
LUCK MAITH!!
Cut off at the moment in the 10.02s as expected - Soll, Ely Brown and Royale Knight make the cut.
The Package needs 4 and Broadway Buffalo 5 to come out to line up.