I was racing the weekend and was speaking to a well known stat based writer and tipster and was talking about the National and here are a couple things he said as regards the National which I found interesting so thought I'd pass them on.He said what with the fact the National is now a completely new race as regards to the many statistics that are about he only uses three statistics as regards to eliminating horses and they are They must of won three or more chase races They must of won over three miles or plus They must of run within the last 62 days Also he added that you should look out for a horse that has good form at Warwick racetrack
probably why nicholls now talking down Sam Winner too.
Indeed, though presumably he could still be mischievous and run him if he reckoned it was keeping one of Pipe's fancied runners out of the line up. Stopping the weights from rising too much for Rocky Creek and Unioniste no doubt the main issue though.
Merry King's departure makes it 5 definite or known likely scratchings with: Double Ross Hadrian's Approach Rubi Light T43 5 out means that Soll (top of those with 10.02) is now #40 and (virtually) certain to run.
Merry King's departure makes it 5 definite or known likely scratchings with: Double Ross Hadrian's Approach Rubi Light T43 5 out means that Soll (top of those with 10.02) is now #40 and (virtually) certain to run.
Home Farm said to be 95% likely to be scratched as well.
Nina Carberry on First Lieutenant. Loves spring ground and very well weighted. Should go well.
Lord Windermere confirmed as an intended runner. If declared tomorrow week, that means no weight rise. That means that, according to my model, this will be the most competitive GN for years. A number with strong stat-profiles, though going will be relevant to some. More anon.
So, at the moment, it's looking like the cut off will be in the 10.02 category (originally given a GN mark of 139). Soll will run having had his OR raised to 146. Next (not sure about the order) are Baileys Concerto, Ely Brown and Royale Knight (at least one of which should run maybe all 3). Duke of Lucca and Renard have dropped to the bottom of the 10.02s as their ORs have dropped to 137 since the GN weights were framed but should make the reserves. Among those looking very unlikely to get a run: Raz De Maree (could make the reserves), The Package (top of those allotted 10.00 and could make reserves), Broadway Buffalo, Gallant Oscar, Goonyella, et al.
The Package placed three years in a row at the festival in Grade 3 races and winner of this years Kim Muir may not make the cut just shows how much the profile and quality of this race has changed in the last 10 years.
So, at the moment, it's looking like the cut off will be in the 10.02 category (originally given a GN mark of 139). Soll will run having had his OR raised to 146. Next (not sure about the order) are Baileys Concerto, Ely Brown and Royale Knight (at least one of which should run maybe all 3). blockquote>
Royale Knight would have a good chance on soft ground.
Whats your Spreadsheet saying as top 4 now , Peanuts ?
Chance Du Roy is sole or joint #1 (depending on the nuance of going) on any ground better than Soft and #4 on Soft~Heavy
Oscar Time has Win stat-profile and remains fantastic e/w value at 50s IMHO (best chance with some cut) but where he ranks depends on the final runners though he's likely to make the top 4 Win candidates on ground that is easier than Good.
Courtesy of the weights not rising, there is a unprecedentedly long "short-list" of runners with win profiles, depending on the going (a 2lb rise would have halved it to normal length of 4-5) and it includes at least one that may or may not run depending on the going but would be a serious player if he lines up.
I'll be posting again asap with further info.
Vic goes to NRNB and 6 e/w places from Saturday. They currently quote CDR at 40s and OT at 50s - whether they'll be that from Saturday couldn't tell you.
Reading today that Paul Moloney , rider of Alvarado one of my early bets, has finished in the first four in each of the last 6 GN,s
He has - and he might have won a couple of them had he not ridden them just to get round ;-(
Last year's excuse was:
"I spent the first two miles thinking Alvarado wasn't a National horse and he wouldn't stay the trip, but he was and he did, and if I can ride him a little differently this time we'll have a good chance."
Can't help thinking his first four rides in the National (FPFP) rather tainted him for his rides on the likes of State of Play and Cappa Bleu. It's like being in a big poker game and sitting on your 4th position rather than going for the win.
Like all elephants and as PM will tell you I can't forget. Or forgive for that matter.
All the constant stuff about McCoy is starting to get on my nerves now.
Sorely tempted to lay it on Betfair Win market if (when) it gets seriously backed down to silly prices on raceday. Model doesn't rate STFD at all - weight, lack of chase mileage, inadequate campaign.....that's torn it!
NB Model is NOT INFALLIBLE folks - bet (and especially lay) responsibly!!
Comments
They must of won three or more chase races
They must of won over three miles or plus
They must of run within the last 62 days
Also he added that you should look out for a horse that has good form at Warwick racetrack
Double Ross
Hadrian's Approach
Rubi Light
T43
5 out means that Soll (top of those with 10.02) is now #40 and (virtually) certain to run.
Nina Carberry on First Lieutenant. Loves spring ground and very well weighted. Should go well.
That means that, according to my model, this will be the most competitive GN for years. A number with strong stat-profiles, though going will be relevant to some.
More anon.
Soll will run having had his OR raised to 146.
Next (not sure about the order) are Baileys Concerto, Ely Brown and Royale Knight (at least one of which should run maybe all 3).
Duke of Lucca and Renard have dropped to the bottom of the 10.02s as their ORs have dropped to 137 since the GN weights were framed but should make the reserves.
Among those looking very unlikely to get a run: Raz De Maree (could make the reserves), The Package (top of those allotted 10.00 and could make reserves), Broadway Buffalo, Gallant Oscar, Goonyella, et al.
New pilot needed now for AL CO as Jamie Moore has broken a leg.
Oscar Time has Win stat-profile and remains fantastic e/w value at 50s IMHO (best chance with some cut) but where he ranks depends on the final runners though he's likely to make the top 4 Win candidates on ground that is easier than Good.
Courtesy of the weights not rising, there is a unprecedentedly long "short-list" of runners with win profiles, depending on the going (a 2lb rise would have halved it to normal length of 4-5) and it includes at least one that may or may not run depending on the going but would be a serious player if he lines up.
I'll be posting again asap with further info.
Vic goes to NRNB and 6 e/w places from Saturday. They currently quote CDR at 40s and OT at 50s - whether they'll be that from Saturday couldn't tell you.
Last year's excuse was:
"I spent the first two miles thinking Alvarado wasn't a National horse and he wouldn't stay the trip, but he was and he did, and if I can ride him a little differently this time we'll have a good chance."
Can't help thinking his first four rides in the National (FPFP) rather tainted him for his rides on the likes of State of Play and Cappa Bleu. It's like being in a big poker game and sitting on your 4th position rather than going for the win.
Like all elephants and as PM will tell you I can't forget. Or forgive for that matter.
― Rita Mae Brown
bloody Neptune Collonges!!!
When is the race?
Which nags is Peanuts telling me to
wastewager my money on this year?NB Model is NOT INFALLIBLE folks - bet (and especially lay) responsibly!!
Put you money down on the counter of a shabby, smoky room, full of slightly desperate and depressing men.
On-line is for kids and hedge fund managers.
Any way, gissus three names.