In 1995, Jenny Pitman had 6 runners in the GN, including the fancied Lusty Light (12/1) and Garrison Savannah (16/1, former GC winner and GN runner-up). She won it with one of her least fancied, 40/1 shot Royal Athlete - Jason Titley riding (had never ridden for Mrs P previously), Lusty Light falling at the first and "Garry" finishing 9th.
In 2002, Nigel Twiston-Davies had 3 runners in the race. Stable jockey Carl Llewellyn had ridden the 2nd string (Bindaree) on all 23 of his races under rules, including when placed in the Welsh National but also for a lacklustre 23L 7th at the preceding Cheltenham Festival. So to no-one's surprise, he readily opted to ride the former Whitbread Gold Cup winner and 11/1 market-fancy Beau. Beau failed to complete a circuit in that GN and the winner was, as we all know, Bindaree (SP 20/1) who was ridden for the first and only ever time by Jim Culloty - Carl Llewellyn never deserted Bindaree again in his remaining 16 races.
Phillip Hobbs confirmed that Balthazar King will go to GN fresh after missing Cheltenham and will be ridden by Richard Johnson. He could be joined by Chance Du Roy, Gas Line Boy and Duke of Lucca.
Godsmejudge is generally 20/1 but Bet365 have pushed him out to 33/1 and are offering 5 places E/W and NRNB. I have upped my stake to £100 win with £20 on the place.
Godsmejudge is generally 20/1 but Bet365 have pushed him out to 33/1 and are offering 5 places E/W and NRNB. I have upped my stake to £100 win with £20 on the place.
McCoy said at Newbury yesterday that he had not totally made his mind up to ride Shutthefrontdoor. Apparently he has been thinking of riding Cause of Causes.
McCoy said at Newbury yesterday that he had not totally made his mind up to ride Shutthefrontdoor. Apparently he has been thinking of riding Cause of Causes.
Cause of Causes is more likely to go for the Irish National. 7 year olds have almost no chance of winning a National.
McCoy said at Newbury yesterday that he had not totally made his mind up to ride Shutthefrontdoor. Apparently he has been thinking of riding Cause of Causes.
Cause of Causes is more likely to go for the Irish National. 7 year olds have almost no chance of winning a National.
His trainer reported in the Post today that Aintree is his target. We shall see .
Now both Davy Russell and Barry Geraghty (the last two jocks to ride The Druids Nephew) are injured and will miss Aintree. McCoy is his only other pilot this season, since his move to Neil Mulholland, but obviously won't ride him. Somewhat a concern since Geraghty said immediately after TDN's win at The Festival that he wasn't sure his jumping is up to the GN fences.
The latest from Oscar Time's trainer/owner Robert Waley-Cohen:
"Oscar Time is in very good order. He went to Kempton on Tuesday for a racecourse gallop, that went very well and he seems very well, so it’s all systems go for Aintree.
“I certainly didn’t expect him to be going back for the Grand National at the start of the season, but he won over the fences in December, which is not that long ago.......... The Doncaster run was fine and we know he’s a much better horse at Liverpool than he is anywhere else. Sam (Waley-Cohen) tells me he doesn’t feel any different to how he felt going into the race in December, so he definitely deserves a shot at it.”
Would be the oldest winner for 162 years but there's plenty of each-way juice in odds of 50/1 [5 places and NRNB - Bet365] for a horse that loves both the GN fences (record 2/4/1) and spring ground (failed to make the frame only once [fell when leading at the last] in 7 chases from 15 March to 31 May).
Cheers Chief. He won't be the #1 rated selection but he's assured of a solid stat profile to be there or thereabouts regardless of ground and any weight rise (best winning chance if there's "Good to Soft" somewhere in the going description).
Peanuts, have you made your selections yet? Who on your model are the ones to back?
There are a number of moving parts at the moment Chief but things are about to start hotting up. The main variable is by how much the weights will rise, if at all. It's the 2nd forfeit stage tomorrow (next stop Confirmation Stage on Easter Monday 6th April and then Declarations, when weights are finalised, Thursday 9th April) so there should be some news (or at least further indications) about intentions as regards those Gold Cup runners that are at or near the top of the GN weights (particularly Lord Windermere and Many Clouds) soon.
It's not that those 2 are likely to figure in my model's fancies - it's the effect upon the relative chances of others of a 2lb+ weight rise if they are both scratched that is the issue.
Oliver Sherwood said a decision will be made later this week about Many Clouds but he is worried that he has had enough this season after disappointing at Cheltenham.
McCoy said at Newbury yesterday that he had not totally made his mind up to ride Shutthefrontdoor. Apparently he has been thinking of riding Cause of Causes.
Cause of Causes is more likely to go for the Irish National. 7 year olds have almost no chance of winning a National.
His trainer reported in the Post today that Aintree is his target. We shall see .
Just a little reminder of some analysis that I did after the 2013 GN about the statistical effects upon the relative chances of runners with 11.00+ of compression of the GN handicap (since 2000 and designed to give the highest rated horses a better chance of winning). The full stat-analysis is at the end of the Official 2013 GN Thread.
In brief, the conclusion was that:
"GENERALLY SPEAKING, the group of horses that were most disadvantaged pre-compression [1988~1999] and to which compression has operated to give a fairer crack of the whip [from 2000 to 2013 inclusive] are:
• NOT (as commonly supposed) the highest-rated runners in the GN
• NOT those carrying 11.00+ [who proportionately had fared well, if not producing a winner since 1988] (compression has acted against the average runner with 11.00+)
• BUT those in the bottom 40% of the card [usually, numbers 25~40] that previously would have run from out-of-the-handicap but now, courtesy of compression, usually run at their correct marks relative to most other runners in the race. Of course they still have to have the right profile to have a chance of taking the prize but......this is an example of that good old law of unintended consequences."
By way of a crude update, the 2014 GN result certainly seems to have continued the trend. Indeed, the evidence of both 2013 and 2014 GNs is particularly interesting as they add in the effects (such as they are) of significant fence modifications and slightly shortened distance (though the fence changes are likely to have more significance):
2013
Winner: Aurora’s Encore (number 35 on the card, carrying 10.03 - only 2 horses carried less that were in the handicap) Runners with 11.00+ (15 = 37.5% of field) / representation in first 10 home: 1 [3rd 9L] (10%) / next 12th 64L
2014
Winner: Pineau De Re (number 29 on the card with 10.06) Runners with 11.00+: 8 (20% of field) / representation in first 10 home: 1 [5th 19L] (10%) / next 16th 148L
Does this mean that a runner with 11.00+ can’t win the GN? Of course not but it does confirm that it takes a very special horse to do so and that there are some very nice catches to be landed out in the deeper waters of the GN card.
The horses taken out of the race at today's forfeit stage are:
CARLINGFORD LOUGH BOSTON BOB ROI DU MEE ROLLING ACES ALDERWOOD KATENKO LIVING NEXT DOOR SHOTGUN PADDY MAKE A TRACK PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE CEDRE BLEU BUDDY BOLERO THEATRICAL STAR
Weights unchanged at the moment with Lord Windermere still in. 74 left in.
Based on the last 4 GNs, the last one at this stage to get in would probably be in the 10-00 bracket. The Package should just squeeze in as the current top-rated of them (he'd be 10lbs well-in). Broadway Buffalo would be next (4lbs well-in).
Comments
In 1995, Jenny Pitman had 6 runners in the GN, including the fancied Lusty Light (12/1) and Garrison Savannah (16/1, former GC winner and GN runner-up). She won it with one of her least fancied, 40/1 shot Royal Athlete - Jason Titley riding (had never ridden for Mrs P previously), Lusty Light falling at the first and "Garry" finishing 9th.
In 2002, Nigel Twiston-Davies had 3 runners in the race. Stable jockey Carl Llewellyn had ridden the 2nd string (Bindaree) on all 23 of his races under rules, including when placed in the Welsh National but also for a lacklustre 23L 7th at the preceding Cheltenham Festival. So to no-one's surprise, he readily opted to ride the former Whitbread Gold Cup winner and 11/1 market-fancy Beau. Beau failed to complete a circuit in that GN and the winner was, as we all know, Bindaree (SP 20/1) who was ridden for the first and only ever time by Jim Culloty - Carl Llewellyn never deserted Bindaree again in his remaining 16 races.
Here endeth this morning's lesson.
He could be joined by Chance Du Roy, Gas Line Boy and Duke of Lucca.
Godsmejudge spat the dummy (again) this afternoon.
10p bet on first second and third horses.
My horses came first, second, and fourth.
I would have got about £2,000 from memory.
Apparently he has been thinking of riding Cause of Causes.
Cause of Causes is more likely to go for the Irish National. 7 year olds have almost no chance of winning a National.
Now both Davy Russell and Barry Geraghty (the last two jocks to ride The Druids Nephew) are injured and will miss Aintree. McCoy is his only other pilot this season, since his move to Neil Mulholland, but obviously won't ride him.
Somewhat a concern since Geraghty said immediately after TDN's win at The Festival that he wasn't sure his jumping is up to the GN fences.
"Oscar Time is in very good order. He went to Kempton on Tuesday for a racecourse gallop, that went very well and he seems very well, so it’s all systems go for Aintree.
“I certainly didn’t expect him to be going back for the Grand National at the start of the season, but he won over the fences in December, which is not that long ago..........
The Doncaster run was fine and we know he’s a much better horse at Liverpool than he is anywhere else. Sam (Waley-Cohen) tells me he doesn’t feel any different to how he felt going into the race in December, so he definitely deserves a shot at it.”
Would be the oldest winner for 162 years but there's plenty of each-way juice in odds of 50/1 [5 places and NRNB - Bet365] for a horse that loves both the GN fences (record 2/4/1) and spring ground (failed to make the frame only once [fell when leading at the last] in 7 chases from 15 March to 31 May).
It's not that those 2 are likely to figure in my model's fancies - it's the effect upon the relative chances of others of a 2lb+ weight rise if they are both scratched that is the issue.
More shortly.
In brief, the conclusion was that:
"GENERALLY SPEAKING, the group of horses that were most disadvantaged pre-compression [1988~1999] and to which compression has operated to give a fairer crack of the whip [from 2000 to 2013 inclusive] are:
• NOT (as commonly supposed) the highest-rated runners in the GN
• NOT those carrying 11.00+ [who proportionately had fared well, if not producing a winner since 1988] (compression has acted against the average runner with 11.00+)
• BUT those in the bottom 40% of the card [usually, numbers 25~40] that previously would have run from out-of-the-handicap but now, courtesy of compression, usually run at their correct marks relative to most other runners in the race. Of course they still have to have the right profile to have a chance of taking the prize but......this is an example of that good old law of unintended consequences."
By way of a crude update, the 2014 GN result certainly seems to have continued the trend. Indeed, the evidence of both 2013 and 2014 GNs is particularly interesting as they add in the effects (such as they are) of significant fence modifications and slightly shortened distance (though the fence changes are likely to have more significance):
2013
Winner: Aurora’s Encore (number 35 on the card, carrying 10.03 - only 2 horses carried less that were in the handicap)
Runners with 11.00+ (15 = 37.5% of field) / representation in first 10 home: 1 [3rd 9L] (10%) / next 12th 64L
2014
Winner: Pineau De Re (number 29 on the card with 10.06)
Runners with 11.00+: 8 (20% of field) / representation in first 10 home: 1 [5th 19L] (10%) / next 16th 148L
Does this mean that a runner with 11.00+ can’t win the GN? Of course not but it does confirm that it takes a very special horse to do so and that there are some very nice catches to be landed out in the deeper waters of the GN card.
CARLINGFORD LOUGH
BOSTON BOB
ROI DU MEE
ROLLING ACES
ALDERWOOD
KATENKO
LIVING NEXT DOOR
SHOTGUN PADDY
MAKE A TRACK
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
CEDRE BLEU
BUDDY BOLERO
THEATRICAL STAR
Weights unchanged at the moment with Lord Windermere still in. 74 left in.