Thumbs up for Monbeg Dude. Will line up at Aintree.
They reckon first time fitting of tongue tie caused his bad run .
It wasn't an entirely unpromising run IMHO; obviously not as planned and he clearly didn't travel or jump very well (the ground was quick enough for him at the trip), maybe sulking at the tongue-tie, but he stayed on pretty well to finish 25L back. He appeared to be further back than that at the top of the hill and at that point I thought it most likely he'd be pulled up. Battled on quite well actually, as one would hope. There have been plenty worse preps by GN winners over the years, even recent ones.
This may be the cynical interpretation but, unsurprisingly, Nicholls is protecting Rocky Creek and Unioniste from a weight rise of more than a 2lbs by stating Sam Winner to be a likely runner, alongside the two fancies and 3 others.
"Unioniste and Rocky Creek are the two who have been aimed at the race. We missed Cheltenham with them and set our sights on this. It is what we did with Neptune Collonges."
Confirming jockey arrangements, Nicholls added: "I hope Sean Bowen will ride Mon Parrain if he rides one more chase winner, but he has got plenty of time for that. I think Nick Scholfield will ride Sam Winner, Sam Twiston-Davies is on Rocky Creek and Noel Fehily will ride Unioniste. Ryan Mahon will be on Rebel Rebellion and I will sort the other one out nearer the time."
This may be the cynical interpretation but, unsurprisingly, Nicholls is protecting Rocky Creek and Unioniste from a weight rise of more than a 2lbs by stating Sam Winner to be a likely runner, alongside the two fancies and 3 others.
"Unioniste and Rocky Creek are the two who have been aimed at the race. We missed Cheltenham with them and set our sights on this. It is what we did with Neptune Collonges."
Confirming jockey arrangements, Nicholls added: "I hope Sean Bowen will ride Mon Parrain if he rides one more chase winner, but he has got plenty of time for that. I think Nick Scholfield will ride Sam Winner, Sam Twiston-Davies is on Rocky Creek and Noel Fehily will ride Unioniste. Ryan Mahon will be on Rebel Rebellion and I will sort the other one out nearer the time."
It's "the other one" that interests me
Blimey I hope your not going to be riding it Peanuts
OK folks. Preps have been run, second forfeit stage passed and the betting market is really going to start heating up.
Joining Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook [both 5 places] and Stan James [4 places] with Non Runner No Bet are Totesport and Betfred [both 4 places]. Expecting Paddy and Vic to join them shortly. Both of them are 5 places (Vic is known to go to 6 places closer to the race of course) and Paddy is offering particularly appealing prices about some runners that are on my radar screen.
More to the point, stats have been crunched and permutations for possible weight rises computed and it’s time for the next selection for my 2015 GN betting slip, to join OSCAR TIME each-way at 50/1.
According to my model, regardless of any weight rise, the #1 selection (outright or joint) on any going better than Soft is (are you sitting down northstandsteve?):
CHANCE DU ROY - 40/1 [5 places NRNB] Bet365 / BetVic [5 places but not NRNB] may go 6 e/w places at some point and there appears to be no downwards pressure on his 40/1 price at the moment so may be worth hanging on for (he was 6th last time!).
Of Philip Hobbs’ GN runners, all attention seemingly is focussed upon last year’s 5L runner-up and current joint 2nd fav Balthazar King but, as I noted a couple of days ago, sometimes it is the lesser fancied (or even completely overlooked) horses from a yard that are the better proposition.
My 2015 model evaluates BK’s stat-profile (by virtue of weight and inadequate prep) as minor place potential. In contrast, it rates his stablemate CHANCE DU ROY’s, as it did last year, as one of the top 4 Win candidates on all going better than Soft. Why?
Vital statistics:
• An 11 year-old - the most common age of the GN winner since 1988 has been 10 or 11 (7 times for each). The last 3 winners were 11y-o.
• Will carry a winnable weight, having been allotted 10.04. Whether or not that rises (his stat-profile would be marginally but not materially impaired by a rise of more than 2lbs) it represents an Official Rating of 141, which compares with OR 143 last GN (carried 10.06) and OR 148 when he was 2nd to the Aintree specialist Always Waining in the 2012 Topham. He’s twice lugged 11.06+ over the GN fences to make the frame, including in the 26f Becher Chase.
• He is at his best on Spring Ground: 57% Strike Rate (Wins & <4L Near-Misses) in 7 chases from the start of Cheltenham to end April in his career, compared to 12% in 17 chases at other times of the season.
• Tipped up only once in 24 chases, ironically over the GN fences (fell 5 out when going well in the 2012 Grand Sefton on heavy) but he’s completed in all 4 runs over the GN fences since (winning or placed in the last 3).
• Only 2 runs this season, 62 since the last, isn’t optimal (Hobbs just doesn’t “get” the GN!) but only a minor penalty from the model’s perspective in light of his fine run in the Becher Chase in December.
• Like Oscar Time, he loves the National course and his fine record over the fences is on a variety of going, including:
o Close 2nd in the 2012 Topham (22f) on Good with 11.07 (OR148)
o Won 2013 Becher Chase (26f) on Soft with 10.06 (OR135)
o 5th (5L) in 2014 Becher Chase last December on GS with 11.06 (OR141) – for what it’s worth, CDR will be 10lbs better off at the weights in the GN with winner Oscar Time and 16lbs better off with 3rd place (3.75L) Saint Are
o 6th (19L) in 2014 GN on officially GS (but time-based Good) with 10.06 (OR143)
But, the $64,000 question is: why, when well beaten last time, should CDR do better this time?
Well, it’s a similar story as to why another Aintree-stalwart, Swing Bill, was a great value bet to be a lot closer in 2013 than the superficial reading of his 55L 10th in 2012 suggested (he duly obliged in 6th at 80/1).
Pundits take it as read that CDR (unraced at beyond 3.25m other than 12 months ago) barely saw out the trip; that’s as good as he can be at 4.5m and on helpful ground and so is rightly 40/1. By contrast, of course, two of those finishing ahead of him last year (Rocky Creek and Balthazar King) are both 12/1 joint 2nd favourites.
Now, it may be that one or both of RC and BK have improved since then but, as regards CDR, the market appears to be overlooking one very important fact: no horse (certainly none of the 5 finishing ahead of him, who all enjoyed unimpeded rounds) was hampered as badly as CDR was during the race.
He was broadsided and brought to a virtual standstill at the 9th by The Rainbow Hunter (himself the unfortunate victim of the fallen Mountainous). CDR had gone into the fence with 10 horses behind him (about 12L off the leaders) – he left the carnage with only 2 behind him (about 20L behind). In fact, though certainly helped by the slow pace for the 2nd circuit, he did remarkably well to recover gradually (under a great ride by regular partner Tom O’Brien) to be on the heels of the leaders when being squeezed up on the inner by the tiring Mr Moonshine when jumping 3 out. Having re-watched the race, I estimate that the lost ground just at the 9th cost him around 8L and (in simple terms) that cost him 4th place, since he finished only a neck behind Rocky Creek and 2.5L behind Alvarado. However, factor in the lost momentum and energy required to get back to speed again and (IMHO), without that misfortune, he could well have been a serious challenger to (at least) 3rd and 2nd.
CDR (allotted 10.04) will receive an extra 5lbs from BK and 10lbs from PDR for this GN compared to last time and, given a clear run, it would be no surprise to me to see him finish ahead of both. Whether that is good enough to win is another matter of course. My model says, on better than Soft, it could well be.
PS On Soft or worse, he'd have minor place potential.
Quick question for you betting enthusiasts please.
If I bet on BetVic with 5 places place and that changes to 6 after I bet do I benefit or stay with 5 as that was what it was when I placed my money. Same for NRNB, if I bet before that comes in but the bookie becomes NRNB and the horse is still available, does my bet become NRNB?
I can probably guess the answer but interested to know. Thanks.
Also, thanks PM for the note on CDR, I am not really a horse person but love reading your informative posts each yr and then sounding like an expert at work of course!
Quick question for you betting enthusiasts please.
If I bet on BetVic with 5 places place and that changes to 6 after I bet do I benefit or stay with 5 as that was what it was when I placed my money. Same for NRNB, if I bet before that comes in but the bookie becomes NRNB and the horse is still available, does my bet become NRNB?
I can probably guess the answer but interested to know. Thanks.
Also, thanks PM for the note on CDR, I am not really a horse person but love reading your informative posts each yr and then sounding like an expert at work of course!
Cheers Athletico. Glad you enjoy it. Hope I (and by extension you) don't look a prize plum by 4.24pm on 11 April. Profuse apologies if so. I'm afraid it's the terms prevailing when you place the bet, irrespective of what they offer subsequently. The benefit, of course, is that you've secured the price. It's a tricky call. With CDR I've not placed my bet at the moment because I'm hoping Vic will offer 6 places before there's downward pressure on his price. Though he's my top selection, anything can happen in the GN and so many of mine seem to come home 6th I hate to miss out. A place at 40s can make a sizeable difference to returns but I may well chicken out and take the 40s for just the 5 places. Once northstandsteve gets stuck in Vic may get windy! From memory, it's only Vic of the mainstream bookies that has offered a 6th place in the past.There's no certainty they'll do so this time. I stand to be corrected but I don't recall Bet365 ever doing so, or Paddy. They'll all go NRNB, more of them very soon I think. Paddy and Vic don't tend to be out of line for too long.
Interesting but scathing article in the Irish Independent about Jim Culloty's decision to part company with Davy Russell. I hadn't realised what a truly awful recent record Culloty has as a trainer - check it out on the Racing Post website. No winner from 55 runners in Ireland and 3 in Britain this season (i.e. from last May). Maybe looking for salvation at Aintree with Lord Windermere.................no chance.
After Shutthefrontdoor had a school at Southwell with Merry Deal the trainer said that the latters chance should not be overlooked as he ran 3rd in the Hennessy which is good form. He has had his wind done since being pulled up at Haydock and he and the Door will both have a tongue tie at Aintree.
In the Mail today official handicapper Phil Smith said that if he was framing the handicap again he would have Rocky Creek 9lb higher and Druids Nephew 10lb higher.
After Shutthefrontdoor had a school at Southwell with Merry Deal the trainer said that the latters chance should not be overlooked as he ran 3rd in the Hennessy which is good form. He has had his wind done since being pulled up at Haydock and he and the Door will both have a tongue tie at Aintree.
Cheers for that starinnaddick. Equine veterinary practices must be the new engine of the economy since wind ops became de rigueur among the horse-racing fraternity. There's hardly a horse in training that hasn't had their wind seen to. I reckon if AP wants the best chance to go out with another GN triumph he should persuade JP to make Merry King's owners an offer they can't refuse and put the green and gold hoops (& AP) on MK. Has a much better chance than either Shutthefrontdoor or Cause Of Causes (according to my model).
PS Paddy now NRNB but have shortened a lot of longer shots.
Tony Martin wants to save his Irish National favourite Gallant Oscar for Aintree but he needs 17 horses to drop out. Sandra Hughes, trainer of Raz De Maree is also favouring a run in the GN. Although he is guaranteed a run at Fairyhouse they are still hoping he will make the cut.
Who`s looking good at the weights for the National
Horse
Druids Nephew + 10 The Package + 10 Goonyella + 10 Rocky Creek + 9 Royal Rebellion + 7 Rubi Light + 7 Soll + 7 Broadway Buffalo + 4 Sam Winner + 3 Many Clouds + 3 Unioniste + 2
Cheers starinnaddick. An observation: of all of these "well-in" figures, caused either by compression of the handicap by Phil Smith at the framing of the GN handicap on 17 Feb or by a hike in their Official Rating based upon form since then, ALL BUT 3 are based upon chases over a distance at least 1 mile short of the GN trip. They are SAM WINNER (will carry more weight than any winner since Red Rum in 1977, GOONYELLA (unlikely to get a run) and BROADWAY BUFFALO (7 year old - no 7 yo winner since 1940 / novice - no novice winner since 1958).
Tony Martin wants to save his Irish National favourite Gallant Oscar for Aintree but he needs 17 horses to drop out. Sandra Hughes, trainer of Raz De Maree is also favouring a run in the GN. Although he is guaranteed a run at Fairyhouse they are still hoping he will make the cut.
Anything's possible but, based upon the last 4 GN's defections at Confirmation Stage and Declarations, it's unlikely that GALLANT OSCAR will get in (might just make the reserves, though for the reason highlighted in your previous post, Goonyella now ranks above him among the 9-13 horses). RAZ DE MAREE might just squeak in on 10.01 - would be a serious contender on Soft
Forgot to mention earlier that Willie Mullins confirmed yesterday that Ballycasey will be his only runner in the big race probably ridden by Ruby. He said that he was looking forward to running him there and that he thinks the spring going will suit and his breeding suggests he will stay the trip .
Forgot to mention earlier that Willie Mullins confirmed yesterday that Ballycasey will be his only runner in the big race probably ridden by Ruby. He said that he was looking forward to running him there and that he thinks the spring going will suit and his breeding suggests he will stay the trip .
His pedigree is certainly a staying one. 1995 GN winner Royal Athlete on the dam side and sired by Presenting (sired 2011 GN winner Ballabriggs) as well as Denman et al. Ground should indeed suit. Could go well for a long way with Ruby looking after him but as an 8yo with only 2 chases under rules at 3m+, one for the future IMHO.
Hey peanuts, the bloke next to me at work has just lumped a one'er on Saint Are at 33/1 NRNB. He also had a one'er on the gold cup winner, so his recent form is solid. Whats your opinion please?
Comments
There have been plenty worse preps by GN winners over the years, even recent ones.
"Unioniste and Rocky Creek are the two who have been aimed at the race. We missed Cheltenham with them and set our sights on this. It is what we did with Neptune Collonges."
Confirming jockey arrangements, Nicholls added: "I hope Sean Bowen will ride Mon Parrain if he rides one more chase winner, but he has got plenty of time for that. I think Nick Scholfield will ride Sam Winner, Sam Twiston-Davies is on Rocky Creek and Noel Fehily will ride Unioniste. Ryan Mahon will be on Rebel Rebellion and I will sort the other one out nearer the time."
It's "the other one" that interests me
Joining Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook [both 5 places] and Stan James [4 places] with Non Runner No Bet are Totesport and Betfred [both 4 places]. Expecting Paddy and Vic to join them shortly. Both of them are 5 places (Vic is known to go to 6 places closer to the race of course) and Paddy is offering particularly appealing prices about some runners that are on my radar screen.
More to the point, stats have been crunched and permutations for possible weight rises computed and it’s time for the next selection for my 2015 GN betting slip, to join OSCAR TIME each-way at 50/1.
According to my model, regardless of any weight rise, the #1 selection (outright or joint) on any going better than Soft is (are you sitting down northstandsteve?):
CHANCE DU ROY - 40/1 [5 places NRNB] Bet365 / BetVic [5 places but not NRNB] may go 6 e/w places at some point and there appears to be no downwards pressure on his 40/1 price at the moment so may be worth hanging on for (he was 6th last time!).
Of Philip Hobbs’ GN runners, all attention seemingly is focussed upon last year’s 5L runner-up and current joint 2nd fav Balthazar King but, as I noted a couple of days ago, sometimes it is the lesser fancied (or even completely overlooked) horses from a yard that are the better proposition.
My 2015 model evaluates BK’s stat-profile (by virtue of weight and inadequate prep) as minor place potential. In contrast, it rates his stablemate CHANCE DU ROY’s, as it did last year, as one of the top 4 Win candidates on all going better than Soft. Why?
Vital statistics:
• An 11 year-old - the most common age of the GN winner since 1988 has been 10 or 11 (7 times for each). The last 3 winners were 11y-o.
• Will carry a winnable weight, having been allotted 10.04. Whether or not that rises (his stat-profile would be marginally but not materially impaired by a rise of more than 2lbs) it represents an Official Rating of 141, which compares with OR 143 last GN (carried 10.06) and OR 148 when he was 2nd to the Aintree specialist Always Waining in the 2012 Topham. He’s twice lugged 11.06+ over the GN fences to make the frame, including in the 26f Becher Chase.
• He is at his best on Spring Ground: 57% Strike Rate (Wins & <4L Near-Misses) in 7 chases from the start of Cheltenham to end April in his career, compared to 12% in 17 chases at other times of the season.
• Tipped up only once in 24 chases, ironically over the GN fences (fell 5 out when going well in the 2012 Grand Sefton on heavy) but he’s completed in all 4 runs over the GN fences since (winning or placed in the last 3).
• Only 2 runs this season, 62 since the last, isn’t optimal (Hobbs just doesn’t “get” the GN!) but only a minor penalty from the model’s perspective in light of his fine run in the Becher Chase in December.
• Like Oscar Time, he loves the National course and his fine record over the fences is on a variety of going, including:
o Close 2nd in the 2012 Topham (22f) on Good with 11.07 (OR148)
o Won 2013 Becher Chase (26f) on Soft with 10.06 (OR135)
o 5th (5L) in 2014 Becher Chase last December on GS with 11.06 (OR141) – for what it’s worth, CDR will be 10lbs better off at the weights in the GN with winner Oscar Time and 16lbs better off with 3rd place (3.75L) Saint Are
o 6th (19L) in 2014 GN on officially GS (but time-based Good) with 10.06 (OR143)
But, the $64,000 question is: why, when well beaten last time, should CDR do better this time?
Well, it’s a similar story as to why another Aintree-stalwart, Swing Bill, was a great value bet to be a lot closer in 2013 than the superficial reading of his 55L 10th in 2012 suggested (he duly obliged in 6th at 80/1).
Pundits take it as read that CDR (unraced at beyond 3.25m other than 12 months ago) barely saw out the trip; that’s as good as he can be at 4.5m and on helpful ground and so is rightly 40/1. By contrast, of course, two of those finishing ahead of him last year (Rocky Creek and Balthazar King) are both 12/1 joint 2nd favourites.
Now, it may be that one or both of RC and BK have improved since then but, as regards CDR, the market appears to be overlooking one very important fact: no horse (certainly none of the 5 finishing ahead of him, who all enjoyed unimpeded rounds) was hampered as badly as CDR was during the race.
He was broadsided and brought to a virtual standstill at the 9th by The Rainbow Hunter (himself the unfortunate victim of the fallen Mountainous). CDR had gone into the fence with 10 horses behind him (about 12L off the leaders) – he left the carnage with only 2 behind him (about 20L behind). In fact, though certainly helped by the slow pace for the 2nd circuit, he did remarkably well to recover gradually (under a great ride by regular partner Tom O’Brien) to be on the heels of the leaders when being squeezed up on the inner by the tiring Mr Moonshine when jumping 3 out. Having re-watched the race, I estimate that the lost ground just at the 9th cost him around 8L and (in simple terms) that cost him 4th place, since he finished only a neck behind Rocky Creek and 2.5L behind Alvarado. However, factor in the lost momentum and energy required to get back to speed again and (IMHO), without that misfortune, he could well have been a serious challenger to (at least) 3rd and 2nd.
CDR (allotted 10.04) will receive an extra 5lbs from BK and 10lbs from PDR for this GN compared to last time and, given a clear run, it would be no surprise to me to see him finish ahead of both. Whether that is good enough to win is another matter of course. My model says, on better than Soft, it could well be.
PS On Soft or worse, he'd have minor place potential.
OTHERS TO COME
If I bet on BetVic with 5 places place and that changes to 6 after I bet do I benefit or stay with 5 as that was what it was when I placed my money. Same for NRNB, if I bet before that comes in but the bookie becomes NRNB and the horse is still available, does my bet become NRNB?
I can probably guess the answer but interested to know. Thanks.
Also, thanks PM for the note on CDR, I am not really a horse person but love reading your informative posts each yr and then sounding like an expert at work of course!
I'm afraid it's the terms prevailing when you place the bet, irrespective of what they offer subsequently. The benefit, of course, is that you've secured the price.
It's a tricky call. With CDR I've not placed my bet at the moment because I'm hoping Vic will offer 6 places before there's downward pressure on his price. Though he's my top selection, anything can happen in the GN and so many of mine seem to come home 6th I hate to miss out. A place at 40s can make a sizeable difference to returns but I may well chicken out and take the 40s for just the 5 places. Once northstandsteve gets stuck in Vic may get windy!
From memory, it's only Vic of the mainstream bookies that has offered a 6th place in the past.There's no certainty they'll do so this time. I stand to be corrected but I don't recall Bet365 ever doing so, or Paddy.
They'll all go NRNB, more of them very soon I think. Paddy and Vic don't tend to be out of line for too long.
No winner from 55 runners in Ireland and 3 in Britain this season (i.e. from last May).
Maybe looking for salvation at Aintree with Lord Windermere.................no chance.
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/culloty-changes-lord-jockey-again-31086821.html
Equine veterinary practices must be the new engine of the economy since wind ops became de rigueur among the horse-racing fraternity. There's hardly a horse in training that hasn't had their wind seen to.
I reckon if AP wants the best chance to go out with another GN triumph he should persuade JP to make Merry King's owners an offer they can't refuse and put the green and gold hoops (& AP) on MK. Has a much better chance than either Shutthefrontdoor or Cause Of Causes (according to my model).
PS Paddy now NRNB but have shortened a lot of longer shots.
Who`s looking good at the weights for the National
Horse
Druids Nephew + 10
The Package + 10
Goonyella + 10
Rocky Creek + 9
Royal Rebellion + 7
Rubi Light + 7
Soll + 7
Broadway Buffalo + 4
Sam Winner + 3
Many Clouds + 3
Unioniste + 2
Sandra Hughes, trainer of Raz De Maree is also favouring a run in the GN. Although he is guaranteed a run at Fairyhouse they are still hoping he will make the cut.
An observation: of all of these "well-in" figures, caused either by compression of the handicap by Phil Smith at the framing of the GN handicap on 17 Feb or by a hike in their Official Rating based upon form since then, ALL BUT 3 are based upon chases over a distance at least 1 mile short of the GN trip.
They are SAM WINNER (will carry more weight than any winner since Red Rum in 1977, GOONYELLA (unlikely to get a run) and BROADWAY BUFFALO (7 year old - no 7 yo winner since 1940 / novice - no novice winner since 1958).
RAZ DE MAREE might just squeak in on 10.01 - would be a serious contender on Soft
I have the number if you want it ;-)
Ground should indeed suit.
Could go well for a long way with Ruby looking after him but as an 8yo with only 2 chases under rules at 3m+, one for the future IMHO.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/goodlife/11487383/Jockey-Katie-Walsh-Men-make-better-riders-than-women.html
He also had a one'er on the gold cup winner, so his recent form is solid.
Whats your opinion please?