An old favourite of mine too. Sad news for all concerned.
Despite the joshing, like a lot of folk, I shared AA's huge soft spot for Burton Port. In his prime he was a terrific steeplechaser, small in size but huge of heart. Sadly, like so many, injuries meant that he never quite fulfilled his potential. Runner up in the RSA and the Hennessy in 2010 and, in only his 2nd run back from an ensuing injury lay-off, near-missing in the 2012 Gold Cup. It was a great shame that Nicky Henderson opted for the BetFred Bowl and scratched him from the 2012 GN - he had a real good shout that year. RIP little fellow.
Just thought I'd add this to the thread I've worked on my own formula and it's had the winner of 11 out of the last 12 Nationals,obviously with non runners and form reading on the day the list will become smaller.But after the weights have been announced this is the list I'm left with to work on and yes i know its not short but its a start as the winner is in there...........................i hope?! Roi Du Mee Balthazar King Back In Focus Living Next Door Night In Milan Al Co Godsmejudge Monbeg Dude Teaforthree The Rainbow Hunter Saint Are Wyck Hill Court By Surprise
Good to have your thoughts killer - all contributions most welcome. Looking forward to see how you whittle them down in due course.
That's the hard bit now peanuts at the moment four of them are grabbing most of my attention and they are as follows BAlthazar King Back In Focus Godsmejudge Monbeg Dude
Makes me wince every time I think of the finish to that 2012 GN. Have a long and happy retirement SHB. Like him or not, JP always looks after his horses at retirement at his Martinstown Stud. Shame for these old warriors that the "stud" part's irrelevant but hey-ho, who needs the naggin'?
With 3 points nicely in the bag, an opportunity to enjoy this afternoon's racing and it's a big day for 11 GN entrants.
Though a traditional prep for the GN, it's a long while since any runner in Kempton's Racing Post (now the BetBright) chase made the frame in the GN - 1996 in fact, when Rough Quest won both races.
Nonetheless, it's an important (possibly final) prep for 5 GN entrants today, especially from a stats-perspective for Godsmejudge and Rocky Creek and, since he needs a 1~4 finish to qualify for a GN run, for Rajdhani Express. The Rainbow Hunter and Renard make up the GN-prepping contingent.
Up at Newcastle 2.55 the annual 4m1f slog known as the Eider will be on better ground than the desperate going of recent years and has a more recent connection to GN success, Comply Or Die winning both in 2008, though the 1990s GNs were littered with horses that had done creditably in the Eider and went on to make the frame at Aintree (Into The Red 1995, Superior Finish 1996, Fells Like Gold 1999 and Samlee 1998). What's interesting is that the official going for the Newcastle marathon on all of these occasions, including 2008, was GS or better. Today's going = GS
Shotgun Paddy (disappointingly said by trainer to be a GN runner this year only if it came up "Red Marauder heavy"), last-tear's Eider winner Wyck Hill and Alpha Victor are the runners today with GN entries among a typically large field.
Over the puddle at Fairyhouse 2.05 is the Bobbyjo Chase, arguably the main Irish prep for the Aintree GN. Most recently, Oscar Time ran in it prior to his 2012 2nd and 2013 4th at Aintree. Black Apalachi was runner up in both in 2010, Snowy Morning was 3rd in both in 2008 and Hedgehunter won both in 2005.
Today, GN hopefuls Roi Du Mee, Spring Heeled and My Murphy contest it with just 2 others in opposition.
A quick round-up of Saturday's runs by GN entrants and the effects on their GN stat-profiles, as interpreted by my 2015 model:
A wipe out in a relatively fast-paced Eider with none of the 3 GN entrants managing to complete. SHOTGUN PADDY just about remains a possible candidate from a stats-perspective off 10.10, but his profile could not withstand more than a 1lb rise in weights and, more to the point, reservations about his jumping ability on better ground (which before Saturday had caused his trainer to discount a GN run unless it were heavy) will hardly have been allayed.
WYCK HILL and ALPHA VICTOR held little appeal before Saturday and even less now.
The admirable ROI DU MEE took the Bobbyjo on Soft for the 2nd time but with no form either beyond 25f or (at any distance) on better ground, with 11.04+ to carry my model doesn't rate his chances of success at Aintree if he runs.
Irish fancy for the GN, SPRING HEELED was having his first run since July and on unsuitable ground and came home an 18.5L 4th of 5. He'll need another prep (entered in the Ultima 25f Handicap on Festival Tuesday) and a stronger run to give his GN stats a polish. Last year's Kim Muir winner could run well again at Cheltenham but, at best, his GN stat-profile would likely be "good run no cigar".
MY MURPHY was sent off fav and came home 3rd - he holds little appeal for the GN on stats and his trainer's previous remarks that "he just won´t jump when he is covered up and needs to have light at his fence" is hardly encouraging.
So to Kempton and the BetBright Chase. In reverse order:
THE RAINBOW HUNTER's stats, even allowing for his being hampered for both GN URs to date, are poor with no form beyond 25f or (at any distance) on a sound surface. His PU on Saturday on his seasonal debut was largely irrelevant.
RENARD cut out a fast pace for the ground on Saturday, which slowed once he weakened not long into the 2nd circuit. Despite a creditable run in the Becher Chase, he remains a maiden at 3m after 9 attempts and holds little appeal for the GN.
RAJDHANI EXPRESS remains unqualified, failing to make the first 4 (patently failing to get home on the ground), despite several of the leading fancies departing early.
GODSMEJUDGE ran OK, coming home 5th, 31L behind the winner. No more was expected from him on only his second run of the season and he will greatly appreciate the spring ground at Aintree. His career form from Cheltenham to end-April is excellent - making the frame 5 from 5, chases and hurdles (all 3m+), winning or near-missing 3 times at 30f+. HOWEVER, with only 2 moderate runs this season, his GN stat-profile requires a creditable further run before Aintree (entered in the Ultima and Kim Muir at the Festival) to have a chance of figuring - a strong performance could turbo-charge that profile.
So to ROCKY CREEK. A fine run to win on Saturday under a big weight, though I'm not sure it quite merited the rave reviews; 3 of his chief rivals departing by the 6th fence and the proximity of Bally Legend (3rd 8.75L), who had been struggling at the rear, verifying a significant drop in pace after Renard spat the dummy. Nonetheless, it would be churlish not to acknowledge that it was a good win.
As regards Aintree, the handicapper has been kind to RC in not compressing the handicap as much as he might and, if he were to run on 11 April with 11.03, he would have a strong chance of being there or thereabouts. HOWEVER, 19L behind the winner last time with 11.05 and no other form at 3.5m+, means that his stat-profile is very sensitive to any rise in the weights and at 11.06+ RC would drop to just place potential. As noted previously, a significant weight rise cannot be ruled out, though a 3lbs rise would require the top 4 to defect - that includes Many Clouds (the "dream" of owner Trevor Hemmings is a GC/GN same season double) and RC's stablemate Sam Winner. Who knows?
Back In Focus said by Willie Mullins to be doubtful for GN after smashing cheekbone and eye socket in accident in his box. Will be a great shame if he doesn't make it - a very talented stayer.
Back In Focus said by Willie Mullins to be doubtful for GN after smashing cheekbone and eye socket in accident in his box. Will be a great shame if he doesn't make it - a very talented stayer.
I been giving some thought to the comments by trainer and jockey that laid the blame for Rocky Creek not quite getting home last time on his being too prominent - thus, this time they will be more patient.
The following is derived from Timeform's analysis of sectional times for the 2014 GN (for which the going was officially GS but time-based going was Good [according to the Racing Post, with which I concur]) and comparing it to the average sectionals of the 2009-13 GNs, run on going ranging from GS to Good, bordering GF (times taken from the first fence so as to eliminate the altered start).
Sectional time comparisons can be troublesome but, as Timeform notes, "the Grand National itself is possibly the easiest race in the world to take sectional times for: the obstacles may have changed over the years, but their location has not, and comparisons across the decades are entirely feasible......"
"[From the 2014 analysis] it can be seen that both the leader and Pineau de Re were 0.6s.......ahead of recent leaders/winners at First Becher’s, something like double that margin at The Chair (around halfway), but had dropped several lengths “behind” by Second Becher’s before catching up again thereafter. ......[Pineau De Re] finished quite quickly in relative terms, running from two out a couple of lengths quicker than winners’ par."
Bear in mind that, standard time for the GN is c. 15.30 seconds per furlong and that equates to approx 4 lengths per second.
Now, the pace was relatively quick to The Chair last time BUT, Rocky Creek was not one of the leaders - he was mid div (11th) at first Bechers and then in touch but 7th, some 7L or so off the leader at The Chair. The leader Across The Bay was taken out (again!) by a loose horse after the water and from starting out on the 2nd circuit, Rocky Creek and Mr Moonshine came through to lead. BUT NOTE, from The Chair to 2nd Bechers, the pace was significantly slower relative to the average. With RC now joint leader, they went from being 1.1 seconds (c. 4.5 lengths) ahead of average at The Chair to 1.4 seconds (c. 5.5 lengths) BEHIND average in the space of 7 fences (2.5 secs or 10 lengths slower than average over less than a mile) and, with RC still leading, they dropped further behind average by 3 out (2 seconds or 8 lengths). It was between 3 and 2 out that Pineau De Re came through to join RC and after 2 out quicken away to win - RC plugging on before running out of gas after the last.
It is of course possible to race too freely in a marathon trip and to improve significantly next time for being ridden more patiently (Balthazar King is a prime example, though it must also be acknowledged that better ground in 2014 compared to 2013 would also have assisted his fine 2nd last year). It is patently clear that RC didn't get home last time on that relatively good ground but, based upon the sectionals, I'm far from convinced that it was because he raced too prominently. It seems more likely that, had the pace not dropped for much of the 2nd circuit, he would not have figured at all.
He was an 8y-o and can be expected to get further as he gets older (though he won't be getting any quicker). He also carried 11.05 last time but, at best, he'll have 2lbs less and, if he is more patiently ridden, he will be more exposed to traffic problems.
I'm certainly not saying he can't win but, allowing for the fact that (with current watering policy) last year's going is as quick as it should ever now be, 12/1 looks a thin and unappealing price for a horse that, in fact, has never got his head in front at or beyond 25f.
I been giving some thought to the comments by trainer and jockey that laid the blame for Rocky Creek not quite getting home last time on his being too prominent - thus, this time they will be more patient.
The following is derived from Timeform's analysis of sectional times for the 2014 GN (for which the going was officially GS but time-based going was Good [according to the Racing Post, with which I concur]) and comparing it to the average sectionals of the 2009-13 GNs, run on going ranging from GS to Good, bordering GF (times taken from the first fence so as to eliminate the altered start).
Sectional time comparisons can be troublesome but, as Timeform notes, "the Grand National itself is possibly the easiest race in the world to take sectional times for: the obstacles may have changed over the years, but their location has not, and comparisons across the decades are entirely feasible......"
"[From the 2014 analysis] it can be seen that both the leader and Pineau de Re were 0.6s.......ahead of recent leaders/winners at First Becher’s, something like double that margin at The Chair (around halfway), but had dropped several lengths “behind” by Second Becher’s before catching up again thereafter. ......[Pineau De Re] finished quite quickly in relative terms, running from two out a couple of lengths quicker than winners’ par."
Bear in mind that, standard time for the GN is c. 15.30 seconds per furlong and that equates to approx 4 lengths per second.
Now, the pace was relatively quick to The Chair last time BUT, Rocky Creek was not one of the leaders - he was mid div (11th) at first Bechers and then in touch but 7th, some 7L or so off the leader at The Chair. The leader Across The Bay was taken out (again!) by a loose horse after the water and from starting out on the 2nd circuit, Rocky Creek and Mr Moonshine came through to lead. BUT NOTE, from The Chair to 2nd Bechers, the pace was significantly slower relative to the average. With RC now joint leader, they went from being 1.1 seconds (c. 4.5 lengths) ahead of average at The Chair to 1.4 seconds (c. 5.5 lengths) BEHIND average in the space of 7 fences (2.5 secs or 10 lengths slower than average over less than a mile) and, with RC still leading, they dropped further behind average by 3 out (2 seconds or 8 lengths). It was between 3 and 2 out that Pineau De Re came through to join RC and after 2 out quicken away to win - RC plugging on before running out of gas after the last.
It is of course possible to race too freely in a marathon trip and to improve significantly next time for being ridden more patiently (Balthazar King is a prime example, though it must also be acknowledged that better ground in 2014 compared to 2013 would also have assisted his fine 2nd last year). It is patently clear that RC didn't get home last time on that relatively good ground but, based upon the sectionals, I'm far from convinced that it was because he raced too prominently. It seems more likely that, had the pace not dropped for much of the 2nd circuit, he would not have figured at all.
He was an 8y-o and can be expected to get further as he gets older (though he won't be getting any quicker). He also carried 11.05 last time but, at best, he'll have 2lbs less and, if he is more patiently ridden, he will be more exposed to traffic problems.
I'm certainly not saying he can't win but, allowing for the fact that (with current watering policy) last year's going is as quick as it should ever now be, 12/1 looks a thin and unappealing price for a horse that, in fact, has never got his head in front at or beyond 25f.
That's famous last words for you!!
Supposedly had the infamous breathing op last summer.
I been giving some thought to the comments by trainer and jockey that laid the blame for Rocky Creek not quite getting home last time on his being too prominent - thus, this time they will be more patient.
The following is derived from Timeform's analysis of sectional times for the 2014 GN (for which the going was officially GS but time-based going was Good [according to the Racing Post, with which I concur]) and comparing it to the average sectionals of the 2009-13 GNs, run on going ranging from GS to Good, bordering GF (times taken from the first fence so as to eliminate the altered start).
Sectional time comparisons can be troublesome but, as Timeform notes, "the Grand National itself is possibly the easiest race in the world to take sectional times for: the obstacles may have changed over the years, but their location has not, and comparisons across the decades are entirely feasible......"
"[From the 2014 analysis] it can be seen that both the leader and Pineau de Re were 0.6s.......ahead of recent leaders/winners at First Becher’s, something like double that margin at The Chair (around halfway), but had dropped several lengths “behind” by Second Becher’s before catching up again thereafter. ......[Pineau De Re] finished quite quickly in relative terms, running from two out a couple of lengths quicker than winners’ par."
Bear in mind that, standard time for the GN is c. 15.30 seconds per furlong and that equates to approx 4 lengths per second.
Now, the pace was relatively quick to The Chair last time BUT, Rocky Creek was not one of the leaders - he was mid div (11th) at first Bechers and then in touch but 7th, some 7L or so off the leader at The Chair. The leader Across The Bay was taken out (again!) by a loose horse after the water and from starting out on the 2nd circuit, Rocky Creek and Mr Moonshine came through to lead. BUT NOTE, from The Chair to 2nd Bechers, the pace was significantly slower relative to the average. With RC now joint leader, they went from being 1.1 seconds (c. 4.5 lengths) ahead of average at The Chair to 1.4 seconds (c. 5.5 lengths) BEHIND average in the space of 7 fences (2.5 secs or 10 lengths slower than average over less than a mile) and, with RC still leading, they dropped further behind average by 3 out (2 seconds or 8 lengths). It was between 3 and 2 out that Pineau De Re came through to join RC and after 2 out quicken away to win - RC plugging on before running out of gas after the last.
It is of course possible to race too freely in a marathon trip and to improve significantly next time for being ridden more patiently (Balthazar King is a prime example, though it must also be acknowledged that better ground in 2014 compared to 2013 would also have assisted his fine 2nd last year). It is patently clear that RC didn't get home last time on that relatively good ground but, based upon the sectionals, I'm far from convinced that it was because he raced too prominently. It seems more likely that, had the pace not dropped for much of the 2nd circuit, he would not have figured at all.
He was an 8y-o and can be expected to get further as he gets older (though he won't be getting any quicker). He also carried 11.05 last time but, at best, he'll have 2lbs less and, if he is more patiently ridden, he will be more exposed to traffic problems.
I'm certainly not saying he can't win but, allowing for the fact that (with current watering policy) last year's going is as quick as it should ever now be, 12/1 looks a thin and unappealing price for a horse that, in fact, has never got his head in front at or beyond 25f.
That's famous last words for you!!
Supposedly had the infamous breathing op last summer.
Ah yes, one of Nicholls' much-loved wind ops. IMHO, if his wind was bad last April, he would have folded a lot earlier than the Elbow.
As usual, a quick Monday round up of Saturday's action, which involved 8 GN entrants that have a realistic chance of making the line up on 11 April.
Of these, 2 either confirmed or elevated their GN stat-profile and are on the radar screen for my 2015 GN model – though more likely as place contenders of varying strength than Win candidates – and, with brevity in mind, I’ll confine my comments to them.
The strongest show was undoubtedly SOLL’s fine win (with first-time blinkers) in the 26f Greatwood veterans chase at Newbury, completed in an impressive time – run at virtually the same pace as the 20f feature race, the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup.
44L 7th in the 2013 GN as an 8y-o (5lbs well-in after a similarly impressive win in his prep), he ran and handled the occasion and (for the most part) the fences well and was in contention until 2nd Valentines. Despite a decent 5th in Sandown’s London National first time out the following season, he failed to build on that with trainer Jo Hughes and was too low in the handicap to make last year’s GN, though he ran creditably in the 22f Topham, notably on genuine good ground.
He joined David Pipe last summer and is now 2 from 2 in veterans’ (but competitive) 3m+ chases. He will surely be handed a career-high mark on Wednesday as a result of his Newbury win, which the Racing Post rates at 149. If Phil Smith agrees, that would put him as much as 10lbs “well-in” on 11 April. His price was immediately cut to 25/1 [5 places] and, though he’s not guaranteed a run, he will certainly leap to the top of those allotted 10.02, making him currently #63 and very likely to line up if fit.
Said to prefer softer ground by reason of his large frame, his pedigree (grand-dam was a good ground lover and dam-sire [Montelimar] and sire [Presenting] both sired good ground GN winners) suggests that a better surface shouldn’t inconvenience if he can go the pace. Indeed, it may be preferable, as he’s failed to get home in all 3 attempts at 29f+ on (officially) GS or worse (though two of those were as an 8yo).
On the negative side, he’s also failed to make the frame or finish within 28L of the winner in 5 attempts in Class 1 chases (4 of which were at or up to 7lbs below his OR139 for this GN), although all of this form (at distance and/or Class 1) was with his former trainer, of course.
Putting all of that into the mix, off his allotted 10.02, my 2015 model rates him as “strong place potential” on better than GS and minor place potential on GS. He could make my betting slip depending upon the strength of competitors’ final ratings but absolute weight is essential to his chances, according to my model. If the weights were to go up by 2lbs+, his rating would drop to minor place potential at best.
Up at Kelso, 2 GN entrants ran in the (short) 3m (Listed) Premier Chase, used by Ballabriggs and Aurora's Encore as their final preps before GN 2011 and 2013 victories (the latter was beaten 53L in that final prep, reminding us that most recent form is not always a reliable guide to GN chances - 3 of last 6 GN winners were beaten 50L+ or PU’d in their final prep).
BAILEYS CONCERTO’s 20L 5th was a decent effort on softer ground than ideal. Not being a handicap, he was meaningfully disadvantaged with virtually all of his rivals at the weights (level with Carlito Brigante, finishing 2L behind but will carry 8lbs less in the GN if he gets in). He was also known prior to the race to be short of 100% fitness, having missed some work after his impressive 3.5L 2nd to a useful novice in the SkyBet (Great Yorkshire) Chase in January (Night In Milan behind and Godsmejudge pulled up).
He has an excellent strike rate in all 15 chases, winning or near-missing >50% and, though new to the GN fences, his only failure to complete was in his first as a novice, unseating 2 out when in contention.
The GN trip is a total unknown for him but he was not running out of gas at Doncaster and his stat-profile has some positives: he loves spring ground (4 wins/near-misses from 5 chases in the 2 months from Cheltenham – his one "failure" being 17L 3rd of 7 on softish Chepstow ground) and is enjoying a busy and successful season (as Pineau De Re did last year) – 5 wins/near-misses in 7 runs. It is a fallacy that GN winners need a light campaign - on the contrary, more than half of all GN winners since 1996 had at least 6 prior runs in the season (only 1 had fewer than 4).
Of course, Baileys Concerto’s handicap mark has risen significantly (+31lbs since the start of the season, including 5lbs for his SkyBet Chase 2nd) but, allotted 10.02, if the going at Aintree is genuine good (or easy side of), he has the stat-profile with the potential to grab a minor place.
He isn’t guaranteed a run but, with the 10.02 horses ranking 63~70 in the list of allotted weights, only 1 would have missed out in 1 of the last 5 GNs. He’s currently 66/1 [5 places], though he’s sufficiently unfancied by the market that he could even be longer if and when 6 places are offered. Could make my betting slip as a funky outsider but much nearer the time.
On to Cheltenham next week - some big preps to be run.
Had my cash on Soll Peanuts, jumped lovely and won off top weight jumping the last as if it was the first. My only concern in the national is that he likes to be up top and it would only take a couple of other runners wanting the lead for them to go to fast.
Had my cash on Soll Peanuts, jumped lovely and won off top weight jumping the last as if it was the first. My only concern in the national is that he likes to be up top and it would only take a couple of other runners wanting the lead for them to go to fast.
Nice one (yet again) Abs……..you’ve got a good kitty to invest at The Festival.
I thought Conor Farrell gave him a peach and he'd be a great pilot around Aintree, having steered old Swing Bill round so many times.
A good question you pose about Soll and pace in the GN.
I could yet be joining you on him as a strong each-way candidate – just want to see how the weights pan out. In any event, he should go very well but, setting my model aside, I suspect that he’s one of those horses that, whatever the ground, he’ll find it tough to get home first.
Based upon his 2013 GN run, I’m not convinced about his stamina at a marathon trip. His quoted preference for soft makes perfect sense but, IMHO, to trips around 3m. Certainly any notion of “the softer the better” for a marathon trip is simply not borne out by his form.
He’s faced Heavy ground in staying chases with not impossible weights twice (in the Dude’s Welsh National with 10.12 and, as a 9yo, in the 2014 GN Trial at Haydock with 11.01) at OR138~139. He was well beaten (47L+) both times.
Conversely, as I mentioned above, his pedigree strongly suggests he should handle decent ground (he certainly did as a Pointer in 2010). It’s his size that is an issue. He’s a huge beast and, naturally, isn’t going to have the change of gear of more nimble rivals but with size comes the advantage that even the GN fences aren’t quite such an obstacle to him. He handled them very well in 2013 – his major mistake at The Chair, which set him back badly, appeared to be induced by a loose horse squeezing him up.
Aside from that and another at 2nd Valentines, he ran and jumped very well around the inner. The going was officially GS (time suggested some Good places) and it was the slowest run GN since 2009, the winner averaging 15.55 seconds per furlong. Soll only carried 10.00 but, to me, it looked like he was emptying the moment he made his tired-looking second mistake and it was guts that got him home 44L behind - laudable nonetheless but would he have fared better on softer ground? I have strong doubts.
So, personally, I think better ground would be preferable but, as you say, can he keep his position?
Firstly, he’s not a front-runner that doesn’t like being taken on. As on Saturday, he’s usually ridden handy but not cutting out the pace so he won’t be “put out” if Across The Bay forces it once again. But the question is still valid; can he stay in touch at a faster pace?
Well maybe not at the 15.00~15.15 secs per furlong pace of the 2010~12 GNs but we shouldn’t be seeing that sort of “fast Good” GN anymore.
OK it is a different track but in Sandown’s 2013 London National over 29.5f (obviously the fences, though tricky, aren’t so daunting but the track has a little more up and down than Aintree), run on Good ground at a pace of 15.28spf, he ran well (very handy) with 11.03 (OR139), only made one mistake and took the lead round the home bend before plugging on to be 4.75L 5th – not bad for his seasonal bow. His own average pace for the race was 15.3 spf.
Over the GN fences, the 22f Topham last year was run on proper Good ground at 15.03 spf by the winner. Clearly an inadequate trip and too fast for him to stay with the leaders but he jumped OK at the rear (winged The Chair) and was beginning to make headway (10L back) when hampered by a faller at the Canal Turn. He stayed on to finish 28L behind the winner, representing an average pace for Soll of 15.35 spf.
By comparison, last year’s GN was won at a pace of 15.49 spf. Though officially GS again, I agree with the Racing Post that it was more like Good and that’s broadly as quick as it should be with the new watering policy. So, if on 11 April we see comparable ground to last year, based on the speed he went at well-enough in the Topham, I reckon there’s every chance that he could hold position, in touch at a strong gallop over fences he’s negotiated more than once now.
I just have a suspicion that, on the ground that he may need to see out the trip thoroughly, something could be finishing quicker.
Nothing to do with this year's GN but thought I'd draw your attention to AP naming Synchronised as his favourite mount. He became an instant favourite of mine when he won the Midlands National in real dogged style on desperate ground as a 7y-o in only his 4th chase. The fact that such a dour stayer managed to win a Gold Cup is quite amazing - OK not the greatest renewal but nonetheless a memorably gutsy win. What AP has to say about him tells you a hell of a lot about the man himself and why those of us that love National Hunt racing will always have a soft spot for the likes of Synchronised.
Courtesy of RTE:
Tony McCoy has nominated 2012 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Synchronised as his favourite mount during his illustrious career.
The Jonjo O'Neill-trained runner outstayed his rivals at Prestbury Park to land the blue riband for McCoy's employer JP McManus but his next run in the Grand National resulted in tragedy as he fell early in the race and suffered a fatal injury when running loose.
McCoy told BBC Radio 5 Live: "The mother of Synchronised, Mayasta, was my first winner for JP in 1996 and Synchronised gave me the greatest day in racing. JP spent his whole life trying to buy a Gold Cup horse, and his wife bred one for him.
"He was a bit like I am as a human being. He probably wasn't the greatest horse I'd ridden, but he had the greatest will to win.
"As a jump jockey I've seen the human side of horse racing be really tough, but in equine terms what happened to Synchronised (suffered a fatal injury in the 2012 Grand National) was the worst day I've had in racing.
"When he fell I can distinctly remember him galloping off. I remember being in pain but thinking at least the horse is all right.
"Afterwards when he was loose he managed to get injured. I was very sore, but I cried for days afterwards. That affected me more than any other horse. It's personal and that's why he's number one."
"He was a bit like I am as a human being. He probably wasn't the greatest horse I'd ridden, but he had the greatest will to win."
Comments
Runner up in the RSA and the Hennessy in 2010 and, in only his 2nd run back from an ensuing injury lay-off, near-missing in the 2012 Gold Cup.
It was a great shame that Nicky Henderson opted for the BetFred Bowl and scratched him from the 2012 GN - he had a real good shout that year.
RIP little fellow.
BAlthazar King
Back In Focus
Godsmejudge
Monbeg Dude
Have a long and happy retirement SHB.
Like him or not, JP always looks after his horses at retirement at his Martinstown Stud. Shame for these old warriors that the "stud" part's irrelevant but hey-ho, who needs the naggin'?
Though a traditional prep for the GN, it's a long while since any runner in Kempton's Racing Post (now the BetBright) chase made the frame in the GN - 1996 in fact, when Rough Quest won both races.
Nonetheless, it's an important (possibly final) prep for 5 GN entrants today, especially from a stats-perspective for Godsmejudge and Rocky Creek and, since he needs a 1~4 finish to qualify for a GN run, for Rajdhani Express. The Rainbow Hunter and Renard make up the GN-prepping contingent.
Up at Newcastle 2.55 the annual 4m1f slog known as the Eider will be on better ground than the desperate going of recent years and has a more recent connection to GN success, Comply Or Die winning both in 2008, though the 1990s GNs were littered with horses that had done creditably in the Eider and went on to make the frame at Aintree (Into The Red 1995, Superior Finish 1996, Fells Like Gold 1999 and Samlee 1998). What's interesting is that the official going for the Newcastle marathon on all of these occasions, including 2008, was GS or better. Today's going = GS
Shotgun Paddy (disappointingly said by trainer to be a GN runner this year only if it came up "Red Marauder heavy"), last-tear's Eider winner Wyck Hill and Alpha Victor are the runners today with GN entries among a typically large field.
Over the puddle at Fairyhouse 2.05 is the Bobbyjo Chase, arguably the main Irish prep for the Aintree GN. Most recently, Oscar Time ran in it prior to his 2012 2nd and 2013 4th at Aintree. Black Apalachi was runner up in both in 2010, Snowy Morning was 3rd in both in 2008 and Hedgehunter won both in 2005.
Today, GN hopefuls Roi Du Mee, Spring Heeled and My Murphy contest it with just 2 others in opposition.
Should be very interesting viewing.
A wipe out in a relatively fast-paced Eider with none of the 3 GN entrants managing to complete. SHOTGUN PADDY just about remains a possible candidate from a stats-perspective off 10.10, but his profile could not withstand more than a 1lb rise in weights and, more to the point, reservations about his jumping ability on better ground (which before Saturday had caused his trainer to discount a GN run unless it were heavy) will hardly have been allayed.
WYCK HILL and ALPHA VICTOR held little appeal before Saturday and even less now.
The admirable ROI DU MEE took the Bobbyjo on Soft for the 2nd time but with no form either beyond 25f or (at any distance) on better ground, with 11.04+ to carry my model doesn't rate his chances of success at Aintree if he runs.
Irish fancy for the GN, SPRING HEELED was having his first run since July and on unsuitable ground and came home an 18.5L 4th of 5. He'll need another prep (entered in the Ultima 25f Handicap on Festival Tuesday) and a stronger run to give his GN stats a polish. Last year's Kim Muir winner could run well again at Cheltenham but, at best, his GN stat-profile would likely be "good run no cigar".
MY MURPHY was sent off fav and came home 3rd - he holds little appeal for the GN on stats and his trainer's previous remarks that "he just won´t jump when he is covered up and needs to have light at his fence" is hardly encouraging.
So to Kempton and the BetBright Chase. In reverse order:
THE RAINBOW HUNTER's stats, even allowing for his being hampered for both GN URs to date, are poor with no form beyond 25f or (at any distance) on a sound surface. His PU on Saturday on his seasonal debut was largely irrelevant.
RENARD cut out a fast pace for the ground on Saturday, which slowed once he weakened not long into the 2nd circuit. Despite a creditable run in the Becher Chase, he remains a maiden at 3m after 9 attempts and holds little appeal for the GN.
RAJDHANI EXPRESS remains unqualified, failing to make the first 4 (patently failing to get home on the ground), despite several of the leading fancies departing early.
GODSMEJUDGE ran OK, coming home 5th, 31L behind the winner. No more was expected from him on only his second run of the season and he will greatly appreciate the spring ground at Aintree. His career form from Cheltenham to end-April is excellent - making the frame 5 from 5, chases and hurdles (all 3m+), winning or near-missing 3 times at 30f+. HOWEVER, with only 2 moderate runs this season, his GN stat-profile requires a creditable further run before Aintree (entered in the Ultima and Kim Muir at the Festival) to have a chance of figuring - a strong performance could turbo-charge that profile.
So to ROCKY CREEK. A fine run to win on Saturday under a big weight, though I'm not sure it quite merited the rave reviews; 3 of his chief rivals departing by the 6th fence and the proximity of Bally Legend (3rd 8.75L), who had been struggling at the rear, verifying a significant drop in pace after Renard spat the dummy. Nonetheless, it would be churlish not to acknowledge that it was a good win.
As regards Aintree, the handicapper has been kind to RC in not compressing the handicap as much as he might and, if he were to run on 11 April with 11.03, he would have a strong chance of being there or thereabouts. HOWEVER, 19L behind the winner last time with 11.05 and no other form at 3.5m+, means that his stat-profile is very sensitive to any rise in the weights and at 11.06+ RC would drop to just place potential. As noted previously, a significant weight rise cannot be ruled out, though a 3lbs rise would require the top 4 to defect - that includes Many Clouds (the "dream" of owner Trevor Hemmings is a GC/GN same season double) and RC's stablemate Sam Winner. Who knows?
More anon.
Hadrian's Approach (40/1) and Prince De Beauchene (33/1) the other two.
I been giving some thought to the comments by trainer and jockey that laid the blame for Rocky Creek not quite getting home last time on his being too prominent - thus, this time they will be more patient.
The following is derived from Timeform's analysis of sectional times for the 2014 GN (for which the going was officially GS but time-based going was Good [according to the Racing Post, with which I concur]) and comparing it to the average sectionals of the 2009-13 GNs, run on going ranging from GS to Good, bordering GF (times taken from the first fence so as to eliminate the altered start).
Sectional time comparisons can be troublesome but, as Timeform notes, "the Grand National itself is possibly the easiest race in the world to take sectional times for: the obstacles may have changed over the years, but their location has not, and comparisons across the decades are entirely feasible......"
"[From the 2014 analysis] it can be seen that both the leader and Pineau de Re were 0.6s.......ahead of recent leaders/winners at First Becher’s, something like double that margin at The Chair (around halfway), but had dropped several lengths “behind” by Second Becher’s before catching up again thereafter.
......[Pineau De Re] finished quite quickly in relative terms, running from two out a couple of lengths quicker than winners’ par."
Bear in mind that, standard time for the GN is c. 15.30 seconds per furlong and that equates to approx 4 lengths per second.
Now, the pace was relatively quick to The Chair last time BUT, Rocky Creek was not one of the leaders - he was mid div (11th) at first Bechers and then in touch but 7th, some 7L or so off the leader at The Chair. The leader Across The Bay was taken out (again!) by a loose horse after the water and from starting out on the 2nd circuit, Rocky Creek and Mr Moonshine came through to lead. BUT NOTE, from The Chair to 2nd Bechers, the pace was significantly slower relative to the average. With RC now joint leader, they went from being 1.1 seconds (c. 4.5 lengths) ahead of average at The Chair to 1.4 seconds (c. 5.5 lengths) BEHIND average in the space of 7 fences (2.5 secs or 10 lengths slower than average over less than a mile) and, with RC still leading, they dropped further behind average by 3 out (2 seconds or 8 lengths). It was between 3 and 2 out that Pineau De Re came through to join RC and after 2 out quicken away to win - RC plugging on before running out of gas after the last.
It is of course possible to race too freely in a marathon trip and to improve significantly next time for being ridden more patiently (Balthazar King is a prime example, though it must also be acknowledged that better ground in 2014 compared to 2013 would also have assisted his fine 2nd last year). It is patently clear that RC didn't get home last time on that relatively good ground but, based upon the sectionals, I'm far from convinced that it was because he raced too prominently. It seems more likely that, had the pace not dropped for much of the 2nd circuit, he would not have figured at all.
He was an 8y-o and can be expected to get further as he gets older (though he won't be getting any quicker). He also carried 11.05 last time but, at best, he'll have 2lbs less and, if he is more patiently ridden, he will be more exposed to traffic problems.
I'm certainly not saying he can't win but, allowing for the fact that (with current watering policy) last year's going is as quick as it should ever now be, 12/1 looks a thin and unappealing price for a horse that, in fact, has never got his head in front at or beyond 25f.
That's famous last words for you!!
Of these, 2 either confirmed or elevated their GN stat-profile and are on the radar screen for my 2015 GN model – though more likely as place contenders of varying strength than Win candidates – and, with brevity in mind, I’ll confine my comments to them.
The strongest show was undoubtedly SOLL’s fine win (with first-time blinkers) in the 26f Greatwood veterans chase at Newbury, completed in an impressive time – run at virtually the same pace as the 20f feature race, the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup.
44L 7th in the 2013 GN as an 8y-o (5lbs well-in after a similarly impressive win in his prep), he ran and handled the occasion and (for the most part) the fences well and was in contention until 2nd Valentines. Despite a decent 5th in Sandown’s London National first time out the following season, he failed to build on that with trainer Jo Hughes and was too low in the handicap to make last year’s GN, though he ran creditably in the 22f Topham, notably on genuine good ground.
He joined David Pipe last summer and is now 2 from 2 in veterans’ (but competitive) 3m+ chases. He will surely be handed a career-high mark on Wednesday as a result of his Newbury win, which the Racing Post rates at 149. If Phil Smith agrees, that would put him as much as 10lbs “well-in” on 11 April. His price was immediately cut to 25/1 [5 places] and, though he’s not guaranteed a run, he will certainly leap to the top of those allotted 10.02, making him currently #63 and very likely to line up if fit.
Said to prefer softer ground by reason of his large frame, his pedigree (grand-dam was a good ground lover and dam-sire [Montelimar] and sire [Presenting] both sired good ground GN winners) suggests that a better surface shouldn’t inconvenience if he can go the pace. Indeed, it may be preferable, as he’s failed to get home in all 3 attempts at 29f+ on (officially) GS or worse (though two of those were as an 8yo).
On the negative side, he’s also failed to make the frame or finish within 28L of the winner in 5 attempts in Class 1 chases (4 of which were at or up to 7lbs below his OR139 for this GN), although all of this form (at distance and/or Class 1) was with his former trainer, of course.
Putting all of that into the mix, off his allotted 10.02, my 2015 model rates him as “strong place potential” on better than GS and minor place potential on GS. He could make my betting slip depending upon the strength of competitors’ final ratings but absolute weight is essential to his chances, according to my model. If the weights were to go up by 2lbs+, his rating would drop to minor place potential at best.
Up at Kelso, 2 GN entrants ran in the (short) 3m (Listed) Premier Chase, used by Ballabriggs and Aurora's Encore as their final preps before GN 2011 and 2013 victories (the latter was beaten 53L in that final prep, reminding us that most recent form is not always a reliable guide to GN chances - 3 of last 6 GN winners were beaten 50L+ or PU’d in their final prep).
BAILEYS CONCERTO’s 20L 5th was a decent effort on softer ground than ideal. Not being a handicap, he was meaningfully disadvantaged with virtually all of his rivals at the weights (level with Carlito Brigante, finishing 2L behind but will carry 8lbs less in the GN if he gets in). He was also known prior to the race to be short of 100% fitness, having missed some work after his impressive 3.5L 2nd to a useful novice in the SkyBet (Great Yorkshire) Chase in January (Night In Milan behind and Godsmejudge pulled up).
He has an excellent strike rate in all 15 chases, winning or near-missing >50% and, though new to the GN fences, his only failure to complete was in his first as a novice, unseating 2 out when in contention.
The GN trip is a total unknown for him but he was not running out of gas at Doncaster and his stat-profile has some positives: he loves spring ground (4 wins/near-misses from 5 chases in the 2 months from Cheltenham – his one "failure" being 17L 3rd of 7 on softish Chepstow ground) and is enjoying a busy and successful season (as Pineau De Re did last year) – 5 wins/near-misses in 7 runs. It is a fallacy that GN winners need a light campaign - on the contrary, more than half of all GN winners since 1996 had at least 6 prior runs in the season (only 1 had fewer than 4).
Of course, Baileys Concerto’s handicap mark has risen significantly (+31lbs since the start of the season, including 5lbs for his SkyBet Chase 2nd) but, allotted 10.02, if the going at Aintree is genuine good (or easy side of), he has the stat-profile with the potential to grab a minor place.
He isn’t guaranteed a run but, with the 10.02 horses ranking 63~70 in the list of allotted weights, only 1 would have missed out in 1 of the last 5 GNs. He’s currently 66/1 [5 places], though he’s sufficiently unfancied by the market that he could even be longer if and when 6 places are offered. Could make my betting slip as a funky outsider but much nearer the time.
On to Cheltenham next week - some big preps to be run.
My only concern in the national is that he likes to be up top and it would only take a couple of other runners wanting the lead for them to go to fast.
I thought Conor Farrell gave him a peach and he'd be a great pilot around Aintree, having steered old Swing Bill round so many times.
A good question you pose about Soll and pace in the GN.
I could yet be joining you on him as a strong each-way candidate – just want to see how the weights pan out. In any event, he should go very well but, setting my model aside, I suspect that he’s one of those horses that, whatever the ground, he’ll find it tough to get home first.
Based upon his 2013 GN run, I’m not convinced about his stamina at a marathon trip. His quoted preference for soft makes perfect sense but, IMHO, to trips around 3m. Certainly any notion of “the softer the better” for a marathon trip is simply not borne out by his form.
He’s faced Heavy ground in staying chases with not impossible weights twice (in the Dude’s Welsh National with 10.12 and, as a 9yo, in the 2014 GN Trial at Haydock with 11.01) at OR138~139. He was well beaten (47L+) both times.
Conversely, as I mentioned above, his pedigree strongly suggests he should handle decent ground (he certainly did as a Pointer in 2010). It’s his size that is an issue. He’s a huge beast and, naturally, isn’t going to have the change of gear of more nimble rivals but with size comes the advantage that even the GN fences aren’t quite such an obstacle to him. He handled them very well in 2013 – his major mistake at The Chair, which set him back badly, appeared to be induced by a loose horse squeezing him up.
Aside from that and another at 2nd Valentines, he ran and jumped very well around the inner. The going was officially GS (time suggested some Good places) and it was the slowest run GN since 2009, the winner averaging 15.55 seconds per furlong. Soll only carried 10.00 but, to me, it looked like he was emptying the moment he made his tired-looking second mistake and it was guts that got him home 44L behind - laudable nonetheless but would he have fared better on softer ground? I have strong doubts.
So, personally, I think better ground would be preferable but, as you say, can he keep his position?
Firstly, he’s not a front-runner that doesn’t like being taken on. As on Saturday, he’s usually ridden handy but not cutting out the pace so he won’t be “put out” if Across The Bay forces it once again. But the question is still valid; can he stay in touch at a faster pace?
Well maybe not at the 15.00~15.15 secs per furlong pace of the 2010~12 GNs but we shouldn’t be seeing that sort of “fast Good” GN anymore.
OK it is a different track but in Sandown’s 2013 London National over 29.5f (obviously the fences, though tricky, aren’t so daunting but the track has a little more up and down than Aintree), run on Good ground at a pace of 15.28spf, he ran well (very handy) with 11.03 (OR139), only made one mistake and took the lead round the home bend before plugging on to be 4.75L 5th – not bad for his seasonal bow. His own average pace for the race was 15.3 spf.
Over the GN fences, the 22f Topham last year was run on proper Good ground at 15.03 spf by the winner. Clearly an inadequate trip and too fast for him to stay with the leaders but he jumped OK at the rear (winged The Chair) and was beginning to make headway (10L back) when hampered by a faller at the Canal Turn. He stayed on to finish 28L behind the winner, representing an average pace for Soll of 15.35 spf.
By comparison, last year’s GN was won at a pace of 15.49 spf. Though officially GS again, I agree with the Racing Post that it was more like Good and that’s broadly as quick as it should be with the new watering policy. So, if on 11 April we see comparable ground to last year, based on the speed he went at well-enough in the Topham, I reckon there’s every chance that he could hold position, in touch at a strong gallop over fences he’s negotiated more than once now.
I just have a suspicion that, on the ground that he may need to see out the trip thoroughly, something could be finishing quicker.
In any event, best of luck……maybe to both of us!
Also out are Rajdhani Express and Poole Master, who had not met the qualification criteria, Kruzhlinin, Green Flag, My Murphy and Loch Ba.
Burton Port sadly died in his last race and Sunnyhillboy has been retired.
87 left in, I make it that all those allotted 10.06+ are now guaranteed a run.
He became an instant favourite of mine when he won the Midlands National in real dogged style on desperate ground as a 7y-o in only his 4th chase. The fact that such a dour stayer managed to win a Gold Cup is quite amazing - OK not the greatest renewal but nonetheless a memorably gutsy win.
What AP has to say about him tells you a hell of a lot about the man himself and why those of us that love National Hunt racing will always have a soft spot for the likes of Synchronised.
Courtesy of RTE:
Tony McCoy has nominated 2012 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Synchronised as his favourite mount during his illustrious career.
The Jonjo O'Neill-trained runner outstayed his rivals at Prestbury Park to land the blue riband for McCoy's employer JP McManus but his next run in the Grand National resulted in tragedy as he fell early in the race and suffered a fatal injury when running loose.
McCoy told BBC Radio 5 Live: "The mother of Synchronised, Mayasta, was my first winner for JP in 1996 and Synchronised gave me the greatest day in racing. JP spent his whole life trying to buy a Gold Cup horse, and his wife bred one for him.
"He was a bit like I am as a human being. He probably wasn't the greatest horse I'd ridden, but he had the greatest will to win.
"As a jump jockey I've seen the human side of horse racing be really tough, but in equine terms what happened to Synchronised (suffered a fatal injury in the 2012 Grand National) was the worst day I've had in racing.
"When he fell I can distinctly remember him galloping off. I remember being in pain but thinking at least the horse is all right.
"Afterwards when he was loose he managed to get injured. I was very sore, but I cried for days afterwards. That affected me more than any other horse. It's personal and that's why he's number one."
"He was a bit like I am as a human being. He probably wasn't the greatest horse I'd ridden, but he had the greatest will to win."