Well CHG, it's a bit of a sprint for my taste but I have been known to dabble in the Irish GN occasionally (with mixed fortunes!). I did a quick and dirty elimination stat-screen yesterday but only managed to knock out 20 of the 30 runners.
10 left standing were: 7,10,16,19,23,25,27,28,29,30
Doesn't get us very far but, since my last Irish National winner was the tough mare Bluesea Cracker in 2010, I'll take a chance on another:
OK folks. The defection yesterday of 50/1 shot Benvolio (which the model, if not his trainer, rated highly for the race) is a shame but a relief in that it removes one player from a very crowded scene. Courtesy of the weights not likely to rise an ounce, this GN is the most competitive and open of the last 10 years as regards my model’s assessment of current top 45 on the card, which it makes by reference to the stat-profiles of previous winners and “near-things” in all GNs since 1988 (excluding the 2001 farce): 25 winners and 27 placed <10L of them. While they are of varying relative strength (which changes according to the nuance of the going) there are, on ground that is better than Good to Soft, 10 runners with a stat-profile rating consistent with at least the minimum rating of former winners and near-things. Of these, depending on how much ease there is in the ground, 4~6 are regarded as “Winning Candidates” with the remainder as “Strong Place Potential”, since the latter’s rating is consistent with only 1 winner (Papillon 2000, the lowest rated GN winner of recent times, according to my model) and 4 near-things (interestingly, these all ran in Good-ground GNs). However, only 5L separates “Strong Place Potential” from the lowest Winning Candidate rating and so, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in any Grand National, there exists a meaningful threat within the “margin of error” for the model’s Win selections this year, especially if it is proper Good ground. Thankfully, once again though, the GN betting market has been fuelled by hype for horses with a pre-eminent jockey and/or trainer or that are considered “well-in” based upon form that, in some cases, almost 1.5 m short of the GN trip. That means that others may be generously priced of course and, happily, my model’s view of the runners with the best chances is sufficiently divergent from the betting market that there is adequate juice to compile an interesting betting slip, however one prefers to do it. So here goes - according to the two most likely alternative going conditions, my model’s ratings of the best stat-profiles among the current top 45 in the weights (in rating order, personal preference where equal):
On GOOD Ground (same as 2014 going): Winning Candidates: • Chance Du Roy • First Lieutenant / The Druids Nephew • Oscar Time / Monbeg Dude / Rocky Creek Strong Place Potential: • Baileys Concerto / Portrait King / Royale Knight / Soll Minor Place Potential: • Dolatulo / Saint Are
On mix of GOOD and GOOD-TO-SOFT (same as 2013 going): Winning Candidates: • Chance Du Roy / Monbeg Dude (the softer the better) • Oscar Time • The Druids Nephew Strong Place Potential: • Portrait King / First Lieutenant / Baileys Concerto / Royale Knight / Soll / Rocky Creek Minor Place Potential: • Saint Are / Dolatulo
BETTING Returns’ objectives and betting strategy are a personal choice. Rather than seeking to shoot the lights out every now and then in the GN, I’m in search of reasonable % returns in most years and, since I invest a lot of time on the model, I wager a relatively large total stake – I don’t stake more than I can afford to lose. The model has only failed to make a profit on 2 out of 9 years to date (one of those literally by a whisker, the other by virtue of a screw up by me) and has never yet been a complete blank, though it came very close last year and there is always a first time……………………….SO BET RESPONSIBLY! Based upon my model’s ratings, wanting to take the remaining prices now rather than wait to make a going assessment late in the week, I’ve backed each of the 5 runners that my model rates as one of the top 3 Win candidates on either Good or Easy side of Good. However, in light of the typically sticky early jumping of the shortest priced of these (THE DRUIDS NEPHEW), I’ve gone Win rather than e/w on him and used the spare ammunition to add two big price outsiders (e/w 6 places, naturally) rated as “strong place potential”. I am choosing to pass altogether on Rocky Creek at 10/1, despite the fact that the model rates him joint #4 alongside OT and Monbeg Dude on Good. On RC’s most favoured ground, given a clear run, I think CDR comfortably has his measure. My Final Betting Slip: • CHANCE DU ROY e/w 40/1 (partly 5, partly 6 places NRNB) • OSCAR TIME e/w 50/1 (5 places) • FIRST LIEUTENANT e/w 25/1 (6 places) NRNB • THE DRUIDS NEPHEW 14/1 Win NRNB • MONBEG DUDE e/w 33/1 (6 places) NRNB • BAILEYS CONCERTO e/w 100/1 (6 places) NRNB • PORTRAIT KING e/w 66/1 (6 places) NRNB
How you wish to use my model’s musings (if at all) is of course entirely up to you. You could do worse than sticking with the two early selections of OSCAR TIME and CHANCE DU ROY. IMHO, these 2 represent the most outstanding e/w value among the model’s Win candidates. If you wanted to add just one more, THE DRUIDS NEPHEW is the most versatile ground-wise but his early jumping is a concern. Alternatively, a choice could be made based upon the ground, which necessitates waiting until later in the week to see how the GN course is riding in the Foxhunters (Thursday) and Topham (Friday). The more juice in the ground the better the chances of MONBEG DUDE and if it were to come up Soft (very unlikely on the forecast) he would be the clear #1 selection by a distance. However, on proper Good ground, both DRUIDS and another GN debutant, FIRST LIEUTENANT (Grade 1 winner) would have the better chances and are rated joint #2 to CDR. Also, simply because the market does, don’t dismiss out of hand the e/w claims of two other GN debutants BAILEYS CONCERTO (100/1 6 places NRNB – he needs 1 to defect by Friday morning to get a run) and PORTRAIT KING (66/1 6 places) – thumb-nail sketches to follow. According to the model, there is nothing to choose between them and the other “strong place” candidates but at the prices for 6 places, it adds a nice buzz to watching the race (at least for as long as they remain upright!). ROYALE KNIGHT, another GN first-timer and stablemate of Pineau De Re, is also very interesting though 25/1 is a little too short for my taste. SOLL is in career-best form and should run a big race but, as noted in an earlier post, he tired a long way from home in the 2013GN though he did plug on. While 25/1 is not unreasonable, particularly given all the “Pipe hype”, he’s relatively unexciting from my perspective.
CHANCE DU ROY and OSCAR TIME – already set out in earlier posts (hope you’re on already if you want to be because Vic’s trimmed his 6 place e/w prices to 33 for both – 40s and 50s still available 5 places)
FIRST LIEUTENANT – 33/1 (4 places) 25/1 (6 places) It’s a toss-up which would produce the bigger shock: Oscar Time being the oldest GN winner for 162 years or First Lieutenant carrying the first female jockey to win (Nina Carberry, winner of the 2013 Irish GN). Jockey gender (or amateur status for that matter) is of no consequence for my model which, on his stat-profile alone, reckons FL to have a serious chance of an "assist" in making history if the ground rides as Good as last year. FL’s form this season looks pretty ordinary, failing to make the frame in 4 outings (though by comparison, 2013 GN winner Aurora’s Encore had failed to make the frame in 7 prior outings that season), but 3 were in Grade 1 chases on testing ground and these included finishing 11L behind emerging talent Road To Riches (who in his next race was 3.5L 3rd to Coneygree in one of the best Gold Cups of recent times). It is possible that he is no longer a Grade 1 calibre horse (as is widely thought) but it is just as likely that he has had enough of hard races with big weights on Irish winter ground. In any event, if it is clearly not current season form that makes FL a contender on Saturday, according to the model, what does? • FL relishes spring ground, like Auroras Encore. Over his chase career to date, in the 2 months from the start of the Cheltenham festival, he has 5 wins or near-misses (<4L) in 7 chases, the only 2 “failures” (was placed in one) coming over an inadequate 16~21 furlongs. All 5 wins/near-misses were in Grade 1 chases, including 2.5L runner up to Bobs Worth in the 2012 RSA chase at Cheltenham, twice the Punchestown Gold Cup (end of April 2013 and 2014) and, interestingly, at both 2013 and 2014 Aintree GN meetings when, respectively, winning and finishing close 3rd to Silviniaco Conti in the Betfred Bowl on the Mildmay Course. Over his career, his strike rate (wins and <4L near-misses) in all chases in the spring is 71%, compared to 44% at other times of the season.
• He will carry 11.03 on Saturday. It takes a special horse to win with that weight but 2 of the last 5 GN winners carried up to 3lbs more and it’s the lightest absolute weight he’s carried since his chasing debut 3 seasons ago. Also like Aurora’s Encore, his Official Rating has dropped significantly (7lbs) over the winter such that his handicap mark for Saturday is OR154 – more than a stone lower than he was rated (OR170) after winning the 2013 Betfred Bowl at the GN meeting (beating Silviniaco Conti and described by the Racing Post as “probably the best edition of this in a few years”) and being touched off in the Punchestown Gold Cup 3 weeks later. Just 12 months ago, representing his last chase form on genuine Good ground, he was running highly creditably in the same two races.
• 4.5m is an unknown for FL – another reason that he’d prefer genuine Good ground. Over his furthest trip to date, his only previous handicap chase, he was a creditable 8L 3rd to Bobs Worth (BW’s 2nd best win, according to the Racing Post) in the 2012 Newbury Hennessy on GS (27f), carrying 11.05 (staying on, one-paced). As a stern test of both stamina and jumping, the Hennessy has a decent correlation to the GN (4 GN winners since 1990, most recently Comply Or Die 2008, and a number of GN near-missers had previously made the frame in the Hennessy).
• Breeding explains his preference for “top-of-the-ground”, being sired by Presenting (father of often good-ground preferring 3m+ chasers, including 2011 GN winner Ballabriggs, who had no form beyond 26f prior to landing the GN). Staying stallions Deep Run and Strong Gale appear on the dam-side of FL’s pedigree suggesting that, on his ground, 4.5m could well be within range.
• FL is a GN debutant (most GN winners are). In 23 chases (and 8 hurdles and a PtP) he has never fallen or unseated and has PU’d only once.
• A 10 year old, 4 runs in the season, the last 23 days prior are all in the sweet spot for GN stats.
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW – 14/1 (5 places) 12/1 (6 places)
DRUIDS is one of the candidates whose rating was vulnerable to a weights-rise - waiting in vain for that has proved costly as regards market price. Nonetheless, since the model rates him joint #2 on Good I have taken the plunge with an interest (of sorts). • Stamina shown by close 2nd to Sam Winner, carrying 11.06 and staying on strongly up the hill, in the 3.5m Murphy Chase at Cheltenham on Soft in November (the 2009 running of that race saw Don’t Push It shoulder 11.11 to finish close 2nd on Soft, prior to his 2010 GN win).
• Versatility on ground evidenced by his Ultima handicap chase win at The Festival on GS but in a Good-ground time.
• His handicap mark was raised to OR156 after his Festival win, leaving DRUIDS 10lbs “well-in” on Saturday (OR146). He’ll carry a very winnable with 10.09.
• 50% Win and near-miss rate in 3m+ chases is decent and 5 runs in the season, the last 32 days prior, is spot on for a GN winning profile. However, there are 2 possible concerns - one statistical, one practical. • Youth. He would be the first 8y-o winner since Bindaree in 2002, though 5 8y-os have finished <10L of GN winners since then (2 <4L). In fact, by virtue of his experience (13 chases, 8 at 3m+) and his form at 3.5m, the model does not penalise him for his age (Bindaree and 8y-o GN runners-up from 2002 onwards, Whats Up Boys, Royal Auclair and McKelvey, all had good form at 3.5m+). However, 8 y-os do tend to require Good ground in a GN – only 2 have made the first 4 home in the last 11 GNs run on anything slower than Good.
• Jumping. Though he has only 1 F and 1 PU to his name, during his Festival win he once again displayed a high head carriage (hence the noseband) and a disconcerting propensity to guess at his fences early on. On the plus side, he travels so well in his races that jumping errors don’t seem to take much out of him.
He needs to get into a rhythm and being piloted by the incomparable Barry Geraghty for both Cheltenham chases was ideal. Ominously, BG’s immediate comment after the Ultima was that he wasn’t sure his jumping style was right for Aintree but he is reported to have schooled well over GN-style practice fences (though schooling is a different kettle of fish to the hurly burly of a National). As we know, all 3 jockeys that have ridden him this season, since his move to Neil Mulholland (AP, Davy Russell and BG), are unavailable and he will be ridden by Aidan Coleman – a fine jockey, though his own record in the GN reads 10th/F/F/F/PU/UR/UR (only one of those F/URs was after a full circuit).
It’s sounding like a classic GN first-time aboard winning jockey story and DRUIDS wouldn’t be the first dodgy jumper to take the GN – Rough Quest had a far worse jumping record (5 Fs, 2 in the very season he won the 1996 GN - well before fence modifications of course). He too was (from memory) 10lbs “well-in”.
On his stats, if DRUIDS can negotiate the (now slightly moderated) cavalry charge over first 6 fences and be successfully hunted round the rest of the first circuit, he’ll have a great chance of being there or thereabouts. Nonetheless, I’m comfortable with my decision, in light of his current 14/1 price, to back him Win only.
MONBEG DUDE, BAILEYS CONCERTO & PORTRAIT KING to follow tomorrow. Too knackered at the mo. I need an ale.
You must spend months on this. My system suggests Godsmejudge will win on Good ground and Royale Knight will win on soft. So I have backed them both each way and I will do a R/FC on the day.
You must spend months on this. My system suggests Godsmejudge will win on Good ground and Royale Knight will win on soft. So I have backed them both each way and I will do a R/FC on the day.
Got a lot of positives has Godsmejudge and Royale Knight's an astute selection len90. He's my model's joint #2 selection behind Monbeg Dude if it were to be genuinely Soft. Best of luck Chief.
Cheers Chaps. Too kind. Might all prove to be a load of hooey. Hopefully not.
I still go for the Red & White ones, right?
Well I've backed them both - Win only for DRUIDS and e/w 6 places for the DUDE but I would have gone e/w DRUIDS aswell if the price were higher - had to wait on the weights-rise so now I'd rather save the place stake on him and have a couple of long-shot running for me aswell. It could be a Red & White win one way or another
The DUDE doesn’t need much introduction on here. Winner of the 2012/13 Welsh National on heavy (….and there was much rejoicing) he was my model’s #2 choice for the GN last year but came home a disappointing 22L 7th. With no weight concession (like those finishing around him he’ll carry 2lbs less) "surely he’s in the grip of the handicapper" (they say)…..…..and it’s worse from a stats perspective!
The bald stats don’t look good for GN returnees getting their head in front – the last 5 winners were all GN debutants (though PDR had fallen in the Becher Chase). The trend is particularly evident on Good or faster ground - since 1988, of the 14 GNs run on such going (time-based, not Official), only 1 was won by a runner with GN experience (Silver Birch in 2007 and, even then, first-timer McKelvey was a very unfortunate 0.75L and rapidly closing runner-up). However, GN returnees have an above-average record in filling the other paying places and mine is an e/w oriented betting strategy, seeking more than one scorer. The model rates the DUDE joint #4 this time on the same (time-based) going as last year, Good. More weight and inadequate campaigns for 2014’s 1st and 2nd account for them according to the 2015 model and, even with 2 GN debutants rating higher on Good going, the DUDE still rates as a solid e/w candidate. However, add in some ease in the going (just easy side of Good, which since 2012 is the stated target for the quickest going – not delivered last time) and the winning stats are much better for returnees, albeit on a small sample: on Good/GS (time-based), they account for 2 of the 4 winners since 1988 (and a runner-up) and the last GN to be run on proper GS (2009) saw them land 1st and 2nd.
Therein is the key for the DUDE. If there is any meaningful juice in the ground, his rating elevates significantly – to joint #1. Why? Well, if only the weather will play its part, there is a remarkable, almost spooky similarity with 2009 GN winner Mon Mome.
• The DUDE’s WN win was outdone in quality by his fine staying on 8.5L 4th in the 2014 WN in December, lugging 11.09 on very testing ground. That followed (and also surpassed in quality) a creditable staying-on 4th in the shorter-trip Hennessy on Soft. As seasoned followers of the GN threads will know well, by virtue the extreme stamina required at undulating Chepstow, there is a good correlation between making the frame in the Welsh marathon (especially on testing ground) and subsequently doing so in the GN. Since 1988, 8 GN winners had previously finished 1st~3rd in the WN, 4 of them in the same season. The most recent of these, Mon Mome 2009 (GS), was also a GN returnee, having finished 58L 10th in the preceding Good ground GN. As we know, Mon Mome was seriously unfancied by the experts for the 2009 GN – softer going gave him his chance and he romped home as (still) the biggest margin winner since 2005. • Curiously, also like Mon Mome (57L 8th in the Midlands National 3 weeks earlier), the DUDE’s prep was also seemingly moderate (25L behind DRUIDS at the Festival). That run was put down by connections to his dislike of a first-time tongue tie and he wouldn’t be the first to sulk at that – Nicholls makes the same excuse for Rocky Creek’s PU when fancied for the Hennessy in November. In fact, there is another more pertinent reason. DRUIDS won in a pretty quick time, which over just 25f was simply too rapid a pace for the DUDE. Of course we are comparing apples and oranges but even the DUDE’s excellent win over ½ furlong further on Good at Cheltenham in 2013 was at an appreciably slower pace (0.28 secs per furlong = 28L over the trip – crudely looks about right) but that’s the quickest ground on which he has ever scored. In any event, that run is of no concern to the model since apparently poor preps are commonplace among GN winners. Even since Mon Mome, Don’t Push It in 2010 recorded a PU and Auroras Encore in 2013 a 53L 5th in their final preps. • Despite the DUDE’s reputation for awkward jumping, he’s never fallen in 17 chases, 4 hurdles and 1 PtP and has UR’d once, with an amateur on board. Most importantly, he handled the GN fences pretty well last time. However, like a number of this year’s runners, he has a first-time pilot in the shape of Liam Treadwell………….now where have I heard that name before? Oh yes, I recall…….he rode Mon Mome to GN victory in 2009!
• A 10 y-o (most common GN winning age since 1996: 7 winners and 5 runners-up), he is set to carry just 10.07, a winnable-with weight (2lbs less and a 2lb lower OR than a year ago)
• 5 runs in the season, the last 32 days ago are both in the “sweet spot” for the stats.
As a bet-once-a-year-expert at picking horses with funny names who don't win, can I just thank PM in advance even if no winners come through. Adds to the anticipation and the build up, and that's half the fun.
But can someone explain where to go to do a combination forecast bet. William Hill online said try Friday...I don't get it.
Just too many choices for my small brain as i dont understand the full intricacies of betting. Will just stick with the first two now as would spend a fortune adding all those.
It's an interesting read Peanuts- I am surprised there is no mention of the King anywhere? On what reasons is Balthazar ruled out mate? Love the horse and has won me plenty in the past so he will be taking some of my cash- and considering he runs better fresh and a solid performance last year, i'm surprised there is no mention!
Already backed CDR and FL- good chances- and will be e/w on PK and BC
It's an interesting read Peanuts- I am surprised there is no mention of the King anywhere? On what reasons is Balthazar ruled out mate? Love the horse and has won me plenty in the past so he will be taking some of my cash- and considering he runs better fresh and a solid performance last year, i'm surprised there is no mention!
Already backed CDR and FL- good chances- and will be e/w on PK and BC
Not in front of my spreadsheet at the mo Chief but from memory model rates BK 5L behind Dolatulo & St Are. IMHO Hobbs just doesn't "get" the GN. He's given BK as light a campaign as when he blew up 2 yrs ago (going & tactics didn't help of course) but his thinking is that his Festival run stopped him winning last year. The stats suggest otherwise. Weight rise & too light a campaign relegate his rating according to my model. BUT IT COULD BE WRONG! If he's done well for you and you fancy him please don't let me and my nutty ramblings put you off.
As a bet-once-a-year-expert at picking horses with funny names who don't win, can I just thank PM in advance even if no winners come through. Adds to the anticipation and the build up, and that's half the fun.
But can someone explain where to go to do a combination forecast bet. William Hill online said try Friday...I don't get it.
Forecast bets I guess will be available on the race markets rather than the ante post markets.
Comments
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news
Courtesy of the weights not likely to rise an ounce, this GN is the most competitive and open of the last 10 years as regards my model’s assessment of current top 45 on the card, which it makes by reference to the stat-profiles of previous winners and “near-things” in all GNs since 1988 (excluding the 2001 farce): 25 winners and 27 placed <10L of them.
While they are of varying relative strength (which changes according to the nuance of the going) there are, on ground that is better than Good to Soft, 10 runners with a stat-profile rating consistent with at least the minimum rating of former winners and near-things. Of these, depending on how much ease there is in the ground, 4~6 are regarded as “Winning Candidates” with the remainder as “Strong Place Potential”, since the latter’s rating is consistent with only 1 winner (Papillon 2000, the lowest rated GN winner of recent times, according to my model) and 4 near-things (interestingly, these all ran in Good-ground GNs). However, only 5L separates “Strong Place Potential” from the lowest Winning Candidate rating and so, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in any Grand National, there exists a meaningful threat within the “margin of error” for the model’s Win selections this year, especially if it is proper Good ground.
Thankfully, once again though, the GN betting market has been fuelled by hype for horses with a pre-eminent jockey and/or trainer or that are considered “well-in” based upon form that, in some cases, almost 1.5 m short of the GN trip. That means that others may be generously priced of course and, happily, my model’s view of the runners with the best chances is sufficiently divergent from the betting market that there is adequate juice to compile an interesting betting slip, however one prefers to do it.
So here goes - according to the two most likely alternative going conditions, my model’s ratings of the best stat-profiles among the current top 45 in the weights (in rating order, personal preference where equal):
On GOOD Ground (same as 2014 going):
Winning Candidates:
• Chance Du Roy
• First Lieutenant / The Druids Nephew
• Oscar Time / Monbeg Dude / Rocky Creek
Strong Place Potential:
• Baileys Concerto / Portrait King / Royale Knight / Soll
Minor Place Potential:
• Dolatulo / Saint Are
On mix of GOOD and GOOD-TO-SOFT (same as 2013 going):
Winning Candidates:
• Chance Du Roy / Monbeg Dude (the softer the better)
• Oscar Time
• The Druids Nephew
Strong Place Potential:
• Portrait King / First Lieutenant / Baileys Concerto / Royale Knight / Soll / Rocky Creek
Minor Place Potential:
• Saint Are / Dolatulo
BETTING
Returns’ objectives and betting strategy are a personal choice. Rather than seeking to shoot the lights out every now and then in the GN, I’m in search of reasonable % returns in most years and, since I invest a lot of time on the model, I wager a relatively large total stake – I don’t stake more than I can afford to lose. The model has only failed to make a profit on 2 out of 9 years to date (one of those literally by a whisker, the other by virtue of a screw up by me) and has never yet been a complete blank, though it came very close last year and there is always a first time……………………….SO BET RESPONSIBLY!
Based upon my model’s ratings, wanting to take the remaining prices now rather than wait to make a going assessment late in the week, I’ve backed each of the 5 runners that my model rates as one of the top 3 Win candidates on either Good or Easy side of Good. However, in light of the typically sticky early jumping of the shortest priced of these (THE DRUIDS NEPHEW), I’ve gone Win rather than e/w on him and used the spare ammunition to add two big price outsiders (e/w 6 places, naturally) rated as “strong place potential”. I am choosing to pass altogether on Rocky Creek at 10/1, despite the fact that the model rates him joint #4 alongside OT and Monbeg Dude on Good. On RC’s most favoured ground, given a clear run, I think CDR comfortably has his measure.
My Final Betting Slip:
• CHANCE DU ROY e/w 40/1 (partly 5, partly 6 places NRNB)
• OSCAR TIME e/w 50/1 (5 places)
• FIRST LIEUTENANT e/w 25/1 (6 places) NRNB
• THE DRUIDS NEPHEW 14/1 Win NRNB
• MONBEG DUDE e/w 33/1 (6 places) NRNB
• BAILEYS CONCERTO e/w 100/1 (6 places) NRNB
• PORTRAIT KING e/w 66/1 (6 places) NRNB
How you wish to use my model’s musings (if at all) is of course entirely up to you.
You could do worse than sticking with the two early selections of OSCAR TIME and CHANCE DU ROY. IMHO, these 2 represent the most outstanding e/w value among the model’s Win candidates.
If you wanted to add just one more, THE DRUIDS NEPHEW is the most versatile ground-wise but his early jumping is a concern. Alternatively, a choice could be made based upon the ground, which necessitates waiting until later in the week to see how the GN course is riding in the Foxhunters (Thursday) and Topham (Friday).
The more juice in the ground the better the chances of MONBEG DUDE and if it were to come up Soft (very unlikely on the forecast) he would be the clear #1 selection by a distance. However, on proper Good ground, both DRUIDS and another GN debutant, FIRST LIEUTENANT (Grade 1 winner) would have the better chances and are rated joint #2 to CDR.
Also, simply because the market does, don’t dismiss out of hand the e/w claims of two other GN debutants BAILEYS CONCERTO (100/1 6 places NRNB – he needs 1 to defect by Friday morning to get a run) and PORTRAIT KING (66/1 6 places) – thumb-nail sketches to follow. According to the model, there is nothing to choose between them and the other “strong place” candidates but at the prices for 6 places, it adds a nice buzz to watching the race (at least for as long as they remain upright!).
ROYALE KNIGHT, another GN first-timer and stablemate of Pineau De Re, is also very interesting though 25/1 is a little too short for my taste. SOLL is in career-best form and should run a big race but, as noted in an earlier post, he tired a long way from home in the 2013GN though he did plug on. While 25/1 is not unreasonable, particularly given all the “Pipe hype”, he’s relatively unexciting from my perspective.
Analysis – to come
CHANCE DU ROY and OSCAR TIME – already set out in earlier posts (hope you’re on already if you want to be because Vic’s trimmed his 6 place e/w prices to 33 for both – 40s and 50s still available 5 places)
FIRST LIEUTENANT – 33/1 (4 places) 25/1 (6 places)
It’s a toss-up which would produce the bigger shock: Oscar Time being the oldest GN winner for 162 years or First Lieutenant carrying the first female jockey to win (Nina Carberry, winner of the 2013 Irish GN). Jockey gender (or amateur status for that matter) is of no consequence for my model which, on his stat-profile alone, reckons FL to have a serious chance of an "assist" in making history if the ground rides as Good as last year.
FL’s form this season looks pretty ordinary, failing to make the frame in 4 outings (though by comparison, 2013 GN winner Aurora’s Encore had failed to make the frame in 7 prior outings that season), but 3 were in Grade 1 chases on testing ground and these included finishing 11L behind emerging talent Road To Riches (who in his next race was 3.5L 3rd to Coneygree in one of the best Gold Cups of recent times). It is possible that he is no longer a Grade 1 calibre horse (as is widely thought) but it is just as likely that he has had enough of hard races with big weights on Irish winter ground. In any event, if it is clearly not current season form that makes FL a contender on Saturday, according to the model, what does?
• FL relishes spring ground, like Auroras Encore. Over his chase career to date, in the 2 months from the start of the Cheltenham festival, he has 5 wins or near-misses (<4L) in 7 chases, the only 2 “failures” (was placed in one) coming over an inadequate 16~21 furlongs. All 5 wins/near-misses were in Grade 1 chases, including 2.5L runner up to Bobs Worth in the 2012 RSA chase at Cheltenham, twice the Punchestown Gold Cup (end of April 2013 and 2014) and, interestingly, at both 2013 and 2014 Aintree GN meetings when, respectively, winning and finishing close 3rd to Silviniaco Conti in the Betfred Bowl on the Mildmay Course. Over his career, his strike rate (wins and <4L near-misses) in all chases in the spring is 71%, compared to 44% at other times of the season.
• He will carry 11.03 on Saturday. It takes a special horse to win with that weight but 2 of the last 5 GN winners carried up to 3lbs more and it’s the lightest absolute weight he’s carried since his chasing debut 3 seasons ago. Also like Aurora’s Encore, his Official Rating has dropped significantly (7lbs) over the winter such that his handicap mark for Saturday is OR154 – more than a stone lower than he was rated (OR170) after winning the 2013 Betfred Bowl at the GN meeting (beating Silviniaco Conti and described by the Racing Post as “probably the best edition of this in a few years”) and being touched off in the Punchestown Gold Cup 3 weeks later. Just 12 months ago, representing his last chase form on genuine Good ground, he was running highly creditably in the same two races.
• 4.5m is an unknown for FL – another reason that he’d prefer genuine Good ground. Over his furthest trip to date, his only previous handicap chase, he was a creditable 8L 3rd to Bobs Worth (BW’s 2nd best win, according to the Racing Post) in the 2012 Newbury Hennessy on GS (27f), carrying 11.05 (staying on, one-paced). As a stern test of both stamina and jumping, the Hennessy has a decent correlation to the GN (4 GN winners since 1990, most recently Comply Or Die 2008, and a number of GN near-missers had previously made the frame in the Hennessy).
• Breeding explains his preference for “top-of-the-ground”, being sired by Presenting (father of often good-ground preferring 3m+ chasers, including 2011 GN winner Ballabriggs, who had no form beyond 26f prior to landing the GN). Staying stallions Deep Run and Strong Gale appear on the dam-side of FL’s pedigree suggesting that, on his ground, 4.5m could well be within range.
• FL is a GN debutant (most GN winners are). In 23 chases (and 8 hurdles and a PtP) he has never fallen or unseated and has PU’d only once.
• A 10 year old, 4 runs in the season, the last 23 days prior are all in the sweet spot for GN stats.
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW – 14/1 (5 places) 12/1 (6 places)
DRUIDS is one of the candidates whose rating was vulnerable to a weights-rise - waiting in vain for that has proved costly as regards market price. Nonetheless, since the model rates him joint #2 on Good I have taken the plunge with an interest (of sorts).
• Stamina shown by close 2nd to Sam Winner, carrying 11.06 and staying on strongly up the hill, in the 3.5m Murphy Chase at Cheltenham on Soft in November (the 2009 running of that race saw Don’t Push It shoulder 11.11 to finish close 2nd on Soft, prior to his 2010 GN win).
• Versatility on ground evidenced by his Ultima handicap chase win at The Festival on GS but in a Good-ground time.
• His handicap mark was raised to OR156 after his Festival win, leaving DRUIDS 10lbs “well-in” on Saturday (OR146). He’ll carry a very winnable with 10.09.
• 50% Win and near-miss rate in 3m+ chases is decent and 5 runs in the season, the last 32 days prior, is spot on for a GN winning profile.
However, there are 2 possible concerns - one statistical, one practical.
• Youth. He would be the first 8y-o winner since Bindaree in 2002, though 5 8y-os have finished <10L of GN winners since then (2 <4L). In fact, by virtue of his experience (13 chases, 8 at 3m+) and his form at 3.5m, the model does not penalise him for his age (Bindaree and 8y-o GN runners-up from 2002 onwards, Whats Up Boys, Royal Auclair and McKelvey, all had good form at 3.5m+). However, 8 y-os do tend to require Good ground in a GN – only 2 have made the first 4 home in the last 11 GNs run on anything slower than Good.
• Jumping. Though he has only 1 F and 1 PU to his name, during his Festival win he once again displayed a high head carriage (hence the noseband) and a disconcerting propensity to guess at his fences early on. On the plus side, he travels so well in his races that jumping errors don’t seem to take much out of him.
He needs to get into a rhythm and being piloted by the incomparable Barry Geraghty for both Cheltenham chases was ideal. Ominously, BG’s immediate comment after the Ultima was that he wasn’t sure his jumping style was right for Aintree but he is reported to have schooled well over GN-style practice fences (though schooling is a different kettle of fish to the hurly burly of a National). As we know, all 3 jockeys that have ridden him this season, since his move to Neil Mulholland (AP, Davy Russell and BG), are unavailable and he will be ridden by Aidan Coleman – a fine jockey, though his own record in the GN reads 10th/F/F/F/PU/UR/UR (only one of those F/URs was after a full circuit).
It’s sounding like a classic GN first-time aboard winning jockey story and DRUIDS wouldn’t be the first dodgy jumper to take the GN – Rough Quest had a far worse jumping record (5 Fs, 2 in the very season he won the 1996 GN - well before fence modifications of course). He too was (from memory) 10lbs “well-in”.
On his stats, if DRUIDS can negotiate the (now slightly moderated) cavalry charge over first 6 fences and be successfully hunted round the rest of the first circuit, he’ll have a great chance of being there or thereabouts. Nonetheless, I’m comfortable with my decision, in light of his current 14/1 price, to back him Win only.
MONBEG DUDE, BAILEYS CONCERTO & PORTRAIT KING to follow tomorrow. Too knackered at the mo. I need an ale.
Best of luck Chief.
Might all prove to be a load of hooey. Hopefully not.
It could be a Red & White win one way or another
MONBEG DUDE – 33/1 (6 places)
The DUDE doesn’t need much introduction on here. Winner of the 2012/13 Welsh National on heavy (….and there was much rejoicing) he was my model’s #2 choice for the GN last year but came home a disappointing 22L 7th. With no weight concession (like those finishing around him he’ll carry 2lbs less) "surely he’s in the grip of the handicapper" (they say)…..…..and it’s worse from a stats perspective!
The bald stats don’t look good for GN returnees getting their head in front – the last 5 winners were all GN debutants (though PDR had fallen in the Becher Chase). The trend is particularly evident on Good or faster ground - since 1988, of the 14 GNs run on such going (time-based, not Official), only 1 was won by a runner with GN experience (Silver Birch in 2007 and, even then, first-timer McKelvey was a very unfortunate 0.75L and rapidly closing runner-up).
However, GN returnees have an above-average record in filling the other paying places and mine is an e/w oriented betting strategy, seeking more than one scorer. The model rates the DUDE joint #4 this time on the same (time-based) going as last year, Good. More weight and inadequate campaigns for 2014’s 1st and 2nd account for them according to the 2015 model and, even with 2 GN debutants rating higher on Good going, the DUDE still rates as a solid e/w candidate.
However, add in some ease in the going (just easy side of Good, which since 2012 is the stated target for the quickest going – not delivered last time) and the winning stats are much better for returnees, albeit on a small sample: on Good/GS (time-based), they account for 2 of the 4 winners since 1988 (and a runner-up) and the last GN to be run on proper GS (2009) saw them land 1st and 2nd.
Therein is the key for the DUDE. If there is any meaningful juice in the ground, his rating elevates significantly – to joint #1. Why? Well, if only the weather will play its part, there is a remarkable, almost spooky similarity with 2009 GN winner Mon Mome.
• The DUDE’s WN win was outdone in quality by his fine staying on 8.5L 4th in the 2014 WN in December, lugging 11.09 on very testing ground. That followed (and also surpassed in quality) a creditable staying-on 4th in the shorter-trip Hennessy on Soft.
As seasoned followers of the GN threads will know well, by virtue the extreme stamina required at undulating Chepstow, there is a good correlation between making the frame in the Welsh marathon (especially on testing ground) and subsequently doing so in the GN. Since 1988, 8 GN winners had previously finished 1st~3rd in the WN, 4 of them in the same season.
The most recent of these, Mon Mome 2009 (GS), was also a GN returnee, having finished 58L 10th in the preceding Good ground GN. As we know, Mon Mome was seriously unfancied by the experts for the 2009 GN – softer going gave him his chance and he romped home as (still) the biggest margin winner since 2005.
• Curiously, also like Mon Mome (57L 8th in the Midlands National 3 weeks earlier), the DUDE’s prep was also seemingly moderate (25L behind DRUIDS at the Festival). That run was put down by connections to his dislike of a first-time tongue tie and he wouldn’t be the first to sulk at that – Nicholls makes the same excuse for Rocky Creek’s PU when fancied for the Hennessy in November.
In fact, there is another more pertinent reason. DRUIDS won in a pretty quick time, which over just 25f was simply too rapid a pace for the DUDE. Of course we are comparing apples and oranges but even the DUDE’s excellent win over ½ furlong further on Good at Cheltenham in 2013 was at an appreciably slower pace (0.28 secs per furlong = 28L over the trip – crudely looks about right) but that’s the quickest ground on which he has ever scored.
In any event, that run is of no concern to the model since apparently poor preps are commonplace among GN winners. Even since Mon Mome, Don’t Push It in 2010 recorded a PU and Auroras Encore in 2013 a 53L 5th in their final preps.
• Despite the DUDE’s reputation for awkward jumping, he’s never fallen in 17 chases, 4 hurdles and 1 PtP and has UR’d once, with an amateur on board. Most importantly, he handled the GN fences pretty well last time. However, like a number of this year’s runners, he has a first-time pilot in the shape of Liam Treadwell………….now where have I heard that name before? Oh yes, I recall…….he rode Mon Mome to GN victory in 2009!
• A 10 y-o (most common GN winning age since 1996: 7 winners and 5 runners-up), he is set to carry just 10.07, a winnable-with weight (2lbs less and a 2lb lower OR than a year ago)
• 5 runs in the season, the last 32 days ago are both in the “sweet spot” for the stats.
RAIN YOU BASTARD!!!!!
Remaining analysis to come later.
But can someone explain where to go to do a combination forecast bet. William Hill online said try Friday...I don't get it.
thanks. and Good luck.
On what reasons is Balthazar ruled out mate?
Love the horse and has won me plenty in the past so he will be taking some of my cash- and considering he runs better fresh and a solid performance last year, i'm surprised there is no mention!
Already backed CDR and FL- good chances- and will be e/w on PK and BC
If he's done well for you and you fancy him please don't let me and my nutty ramblings put you off.