Over the last month or so whenever I've had a win, ive used the odd bits to do small ew bets for the national. Ie if I won £24 I'd use the odd £4 to bet. Just gone through my betting accounts and I've already laid out more than any other year. Certainly doesn't feel like I've weighed out loads and won't need to on Saturday. As always peanuts, top top thread.
As a bet-once-a-year-expert at picking horses with funny names who don't win, can I just thank PM in advance even if no winners come through. Adds to the anticipation and the build up, and that's half the fun.
But can someone explain where to go to do a combination forecast bet. William Hill online said try Friday...I don't get it.
It's an interesting read Peanuts- I am surprised there is no mention of the King anywhere? On what reasons is Balthazar ruled out mate? Love the horse and has won me plenty in the past so he will be taking some of my cash- and considering he runs better fresh and a solid performance last year, i'm surprised there is no mention!
Already backed CDR and FL- good chances- and will be e/w on PK and BC
Not in front of my spreadsheet at the mo Chief but from memory model rates BK 5L behind Dolatulo & St Are. IMHO Hobbs just doesn't "get" the GN. He's given BK as light a campaign as when he blew up 2 yrs ago (going & tactics didn't help of course) but his thinking is that his Festival run stopped him winning last year. The stats suggest otherwise. Weight rise & too light a campaign relegate his rating according to my model. BUT IT COULD BE WRONG! If he's done well for you and you fancy him please don't let me and my nutty ramblings put you off.
All very fair points mate. I was at the festival in 12 when he held on up the hill and won a fair bit from BH. His last two festival wins come from arriving fresh, and we all know the horse loves a right battle. Fan of Dicky too.
Agree very strongly about CDR's prospects- previous runs all point to a decent run for your money in this showing
Cheers PBS. Too kind. Many excellent contributions from others, including your good self. What are your fancies?
I owe the dude and Oscar time a loyalty bet for previous wins. Have had little ew bets based on your findings. Keep getting gut feelings for cause of causes and soll.
PM, i heard tonight on the radio that they are intending to water Aintree tomorrow or Friday - any change to your seven should that happen?
I'll time the Foxhunters tomorrow Chief. The time of that is a fairly reliable guide as to how the course is riding. I doubt that there will be a change as it would require it to be proper Good to Soft (they may describe it as such but that can be taken with a large pinch of salt until you put the clock on it). Will let you know.
To complete my analysis, thumb-nail sketches of 3 GN debutants with varying degrees of support in the betting market but which have “strong place potential” according to my 2015 model. Their credentials, naturally, are never going to look like those of National Hunt superstars but the GN first 6 places are often filled by runners of their sort. It’s their light weight and the stat-boxes ticked and shared with former winners and near-things that make them potentially interesting at funky prices; the key word, however, being “potential”. They could, of course, flop horribly: 3 milers may flatter to deceive and simply run out of puff and dour stayers can get left behind or caught up in traffic problems. Hopefully one or more of these will reward a leap of faith.
BAILEYS CONCERTO – 100/1 (6 places) NRNB BC is #41 on the card at the moment and so needs 1 to defect by Friday morning to line up. His career (impacted by leg trouble) took off when he was purchased by current Cumbrian trainer Dianne Sayer in May 2013. To that point he’d been with Venetia Williams and he left her yard a maiden after 8 runs. • >50% strike rate (wins and <4L near misses) in 15 chases but it is 80% on Spring Ground (2 months from the start of the Festival) • Only 3 chases at 3m but impressive staying-on 3.5L 2nd to If In Doubt (IID subsequently ran well in the RSA Chase) in competitive 3m Class 1 SkyBet Chase at Donny in January on GS - Night In Milan 6L behind and Godsmejudge PU. • That was the conclusion of a terrific run of form, commencing in March 2014, which saw him rattle off 10 wins or near-misses from 11 chases and hurdles, mainly at 2.5 miles and which took his chase mark from OR96 to Saturday’s OR139 (+5lbs for his SkyBet run). • A busy season is more common than not for GN winners (11 of last 19 had run at least 6 times) and BC ticks that box - 9 runs this season (PDR ran 10 times in the season prior to his 2014 GN victory). • Never faced the GN fences but only 1 UR (chasing debut when in contention 2 out) in 15 chases, all since completed. • 4.5m trip is a complete unknown but 22 horses with no form beyond 24~25f have filled the first 6 home in GNs since 1988, the majority carrying <10.08 but only 5 on ground slower than Good. He'll carry a featherweight 10.02 and have regular jockey, the experienced Brian Hughes on board. Best chance of making the frame most certainly on his favoured Good ground. • 9-yo, last run 42 days prior is fine for GN stats.
PORTRAIT KING - 66/1 (5 places) 50/1 (6places) The star of Kildare trainer Maurice Phelan's small yard, PK has come back well from a significant layoff (injured during the 2012 Scottish National). He is an out an out stayer who handles a good surface but would prefer some meaningful ease in the ground to stay in contention. • >50% win & near-miss strike rate in 3m+ chases and at 3.5m+ • Prior to injury, he won the 2012 Eider Chase over 4m1f on Good, carrying 11.08, and was 3 wins (or <4L near-misses) from 3 chases at 3.5m+, including twice on Heavy. • In his first chase on return from injury was placed in the 2014 Punchestown Grand National Trial (former winner of the race) and was close runner up in the 2015 renewal in February on heavy, carrying 11.07. Subsequently a remote 9th in the Eider but was horribly hampered twice and then ran nicely over hurdles in his final GN prep. • New to the GN fences but no F or UR over fences (1 F in a maiden hurdle 4 years ago) and only once failed to complete (badly hampered) in 13 chases. The experienced Davy Condon takes the ride (ridden him in 2 chases, wining or near-missing both at 3.5m+) • Set to carry 10.03, representing a mark of OR140 – the same as after his Eider Chase victory. • A 10y-o, 6 runs in the season (last 25 days prior) are all in the sweet spot for GN stats.
ROYALE KNIGHT – 25/1 (6 places) RK is rated by my model a better chance than stablemate Pineau De Re but he is also quietly fancied by the market and his current price may or may not represent attractive e/w value; an out and out stayer who would also prefer ground slower than Good to stay in touch. • Made the frame in >70% of his 17 chases, he has won (or near-missed) 3 of his 6 chases at 3.5m+, including 4m Borders National on GS in 2013 and 3.75m Durham National with 11.01 on GS in October. Also a creditable 12L 3rd in the 2014 BetFred Classic (aka Warwick National) on Soft. • New to the GN fences but, amazingly, no F or UR in 45 chases, hurdles and PtPs, only once failing to complete over fences. • A 9y-o, set to carry 10.02 (will definitely run), 4 runs in the season, the last 23 days prior are fine as GN stats.
The Grand National takes place on Saturday 11th April and we’ve got a fantastic money back offer for Each-Way bets placed on the world’s greatest horse race.
All you have to do is place your bets on the Grand National between Thursday 9th April and midday on Saturday 11th April. We will then give you half the stake back for every Each-Way bet that you place, up to a maximum total refund of £125 per customer.
To ensure that your refund is credited as quickly as possible, please only include Grand National bets on your bet slip. Refunds will be credited to your account within 12 hours of bet placement.
To add to the great value, we are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.
The Grand National takes place on Saturday 11th April and we’ve got a fantastic money back offer for Each-Way bets placed on the world’s greatest horse race.
All you have to do is place your bets on the Grand National between Thursday 9th April and midday on Saturday 11th April. We will then give you half the stake back for every Each-Way bet that you place, up to a maximum total refund of £125* per customer.
To ensure that your refund is credited as quickly as possible, please only include Grand National bets on your bet slip. Refunds will be credited to your account within 12 hours of bet placement.
To qualify for this offer, you must be an existing bet365 account holder and have opened your account before 23:59 on Wednesday 8th April 2015.
To add to the great value, we are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.
The Grand National takes place on Saturday 11th April and we’ve got a fantastic money back offer for Each-Way bets placed on the world’s greatest horse race.
All you have to do is place your bets on the Grand National between Thursday 9th April and midday on Saturday 11th April. We will then give you half the stake back for every Each-Way bet that you place, up to a maximum total refund of £125* per customer.
To ensure that your refund is credited as quickly as possible, please only include Grand National bets on your bet slip. Refunds will be credited to your account within 12 hours of bet placement.
To qualify for this offer, you must be an existing bet365 account holder and have opened your account before 23:59 on Wednesday 8th April 2015.
To add to the great value, we are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.
Cracking offer that AA. Purely by chance I did all of Peanuts' tips this morning e/w on Bet 365. Handy :0)
Monbeg Dude on the drift 40/1 6 places with BetVic - ground thought too quick I suspect. Can be meaningfully different on Mildmay and GN courses and we shall see how much juice there is in the course that counts when the amateurs run later.
Comments
Just gone through my betting accounts and I've already laid out more than any other year.
Certainly doesn't feel like I've weighed out loads and won't need to on Saturday.
As always peanuts, top top thread.
What are your fancies?
Agree very strongly about CDR's prospects- previous runs all point to a decent run for your money in this showing
Have had little ew bets based on your findings.
Keep getting gut feelings for cause of causes and soll.
Their credentials, naturally, are never going to look like those of National Hunt superstars but the GN first 6 places are often filled by runners of their sort. It’s their light weight and the stat-boxes ticked and shared with former winners and near-things that make them potentially interesting at funky prices; the key word, however, being “potential”. They could, of course, flop horribly: 3 milers may flatter to deceive and simply run out of puff and dour stayers can get left behind or caught up in traffic problems. Hopefully one or more of these will reward a leap of faith.
BAILEYS CONCERTO – 100/1 (6 places) NRNB
BC is #41 on the card at the moment and so needs 1 to defect by Friday morning to line up. His career (impacted by leg trouble) took off when he was purchased by current Cumbrian trainer Dianne Sayer in May 2013. To that point he’d been with Venetia Williams and he left her yard a maiden after 8 runs.
• >50% strike rate (wins and <4L near misses) in 15 chases but it is 80% on Spring Ground (2 months from the start of the Festival)
• Only 3 chases at 3m but impressive staying-on 3.5L 2nd to If In Doubt (IID subsequently ran well in the RSA Chase) in competitive 3m Class 1 SkyBet Chase at Donny in January on GS - Night In Milan 6L behind and Godsmejudge PU.
• That was the conclusion of a terrific run of form, commencing in March 2014, which saw him rattle off 10 wins or near-misses from 11 chases and hurdles, mainly at 2.5 miles and which took his chase mark from OR96 to Saturday’s OR139 (+5lbs for his SkyBet run).
• A busy season is more common than not for GN winners (11 of last 19 had run at least 6 times) and BC ticks that box - 9 runs this season (PDR ran 10 times in the season prior to his 2014 GN victory).
• Never faced the GN fences but only 1 UR (chasing debut when in contention 2 out) in 15 chases, all since completed.
• 4.5m trip is a complete unknown but 22 horses with no form beyond 24~25f have filled the first 6 home in GNs since 1988, the majority carrying <10.08 but only 5 on ground slower than Good. He'll carry a featherweight 10.02 and have regular jockey, the experienced Brian Hughes on board. Best chance of making the frame most certainly on his favoured Good ground.
• 9-yo, last run 42 days prior is fine for GN stats.
PORTRAIT KING - 66/1 (5 places) 50/1 (6places)
The star of Kildare trainer Maurice Phelan's small yard, PK has come back well from a significant layoff (injured during the 2012 Scottish National). He is an out an out stayer who handles a good surface but would prefer some meaningful ease in the ground to stay in contention.
• >50% win & near-miss strike rate in 3m+ chases and at 3.5m+
• Prior to injury, he won the 2012 Eider Chase over 4m1f on Good, carrying 11.08, and was 3 wins (or <4L near-misses) from 3 chases at 3.5m+, including twice on Heavy.
• In his first chase on return from injury was placed in the 2014 Punchestown Grand National Trial (former winner of the race) and was close runner up in the 2015 renewal in February on heavy, carrying 11.07. Subsequently a remote 9th in the Eider but was horribly hampered twice and then ran nicely over hurdles in his final GN prep.
• New to the GN fences but no F or UR over fences (1 F in a maiden hurdle 4 years ago) and only once failed to complete (badly hampered) in 13 chases. The experienced Davy Condon takes the ride (ridden him in 2 chases, wining or near-missing both at 3.5m+)
• Set to carry 10.03, representing a mark of OR140 – the same as after his Eider Chase victory.
• A 10y-o, 6 runs in the season (last 25 days prior) are all in the sweet spot for GN stats.
ROYALE KNIGHT – 25/1 (6 places)
RK is rated by my model a better chance than stablemate Pineau De Re but he is also quietly fancied by the market and his current price may or may not represent attractive e/w value; an out and out stayer who would also prefer ground slower than Good to stay in touch.
• Made the frame in >70% of his 17 chases, he has won (or near-missed) 3 of his 6 chases at 3.5m+, including 4m Borders National on GS in 2013 and 3.75m Durham National with 11.01 on GS in October. Also a creditable 12L 3rd in the 2014 BetFred Classic (aka Warwick National) on Soft.
• New to the GN fences but, amazingly, no F or UR in 45 chases, hurdles and PtPs, only once failing to complete over fences.
• A 9y-o, set to carry 10.02 (will definitely run), 4 runs in the season, the last 23 days prior are fine as GN stats.
News on the going later, after the Foxhunters
GOOD LUCK ALL
The Grand National takes place on Saturday 11th April and we’ve got a fantastic money back offer for Each-Way bets placed on the world’s greatest horse race.
All you have to do is place your bets on the Grand National between Thursday 9th April and midday on Saturday 11th April. We will then give you half the stake back for every Each-Way bet that you place, up to a maximum total refund of £125 per customer.
To ensure that your refund is credited as quickly as possible, please only include Grand National bets on your bet slip. Refunds will be credited to your account within 12 hours of bet placement.
To add to the great value, we are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.
4 reserves (in order):
Baileys Concerto
Duke Of Lucca
Raz De Maree
The Package
Daily mail has an up to date one now.
The Grand National takes place on Saturday 11th April and we’ve got a fantastic money back offer for Each-Way bets placed on the world’s greatest horse race.
All you have to do is place your bets on the Grand National between Thursday 9th April and midday on Saturday 11th April. We will then give you half the stake back for every Each-Way bet that you place, up to a maximum total refund of £125* per customer.
To ensure that your refund is credited as quickly as possible, please only include Grand National bets on your bet slip. Refunds will be credited to your account within 12 hours of bet placement.
To qualify for this offer, you must be an existing bet365 account holder and have opened your account before 23:59 on Wednesday 8th April 2015.
To add to the great value, we are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.
THURS AND FRIDAY ONLY - open a new account and they offer a matched free bet up to £100.
100freebet.co.uk