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The General Election - June 8th 2017

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  • The Naylor review is happening people.
    And it's not good.

    I actually don't see what the issue is with that. Sell off unused bits of land or inefficiently used bits of land and use the funds raised to fund new infrastructure for the rest of the NHS. Most of the reports out there on social media are wayyyyy off from the reccomendations of the actual review.

    It's IMO far less of an issue that the private finance initiatives agreed by the Blair/Brown administration. They were basically: say to a developer 'you build us a hospital/school worth 30m and we will give you 150m over the next 30 years'. That is the biggest disaster and the biggest threat to the NHS in my opinion.


    I mean it sounds good if that was the complete extent of it but:

    -hospitals are so desperate for cash that they no longer have a real choice
    -bribed with public money to sell off quickly and cheaply
    -hospitals that are still in a position to refuse can be punished for non-compliance (by restricting funding).

    That's without the potential that they might go well beyond their remit and start selling areas that aren't truly surplus.
    Sure which is why it's important it is properly managed (which is unlikely under any governemnt). But that's not a reson to not carry out a policy that makes sense.

    Dammit I wasn't supposed to be getting into debate on policies. I lasted so many months not dipping into this thread!
    One thing that strikes me about the NHS is that the claim that costs (adjusted for inflation) are rising at a rate of 4% per annum, while in other European companies the rate is only 1/2% - does the population ageing/becoming less fit/ growing really account for such a growth rate - there must be something else going on. Are we really spending enough on preventative care.
  • Has there been active campaigns in the Unis to get students to vote? And how succesful do people think they have been?

    Corbyn came to the biggest student area here in Leeds and I think it was very successful.

    Originally he planned to speak in a venue but so many people came that the police had to close off the whole road.

    image

    However I think that misses your question. Haven't experienced much from the University itself although I haven't been in that much (being in my final year).
  • smsm
    edited June 2017

    What is important is that Corbyn can keep power so a bad labour defeat will be a disaster.

    .

    What will be a disaster is another 5 years of the Tories in power and the further suffering that it will cause to decent working people. If Labour had a decent leader then it would have walked this election against a second rate Tory leader, a truly awful Tory campaign and seven years of austerity in which most people saw no improvement in their living standards. If Corbyn cannot win against such a weak government and record then he has demonstrated his ineffectiveness and should do the decent thing and go at once - and apologise for his failure as he leaves together with his gang. Another 5 years of the Labour Party being controlled by the Momentum Party will put an end to it being the broad church which is necessary to win elections.
  • I don't think the 18 to 25 vote will increase much, if at all, as it will be easier to stay in bed, go to the pub, play x box or search tinder instead.

    I'll be ashamed of my fellow 18-25 year olds if so.
    Canterbury is a safe Tory seat despite the population being 70% students. Fact is not enough of us vote.
    How can it be 70%? That would imply nearly 50,000 students...
    Yep 3 unis over 45000 students.
    In that case only a small percentage are registered to vote there
  • sm said:

    What is important is that Corbyn can keep power so a bad labour defeat will be a disaster.

    .

    What will be a disaster is another 5 years of the Tories in power and the further suffering that it will cause to decent working people. If Labour had a decent leader then it would have walked this election against a second rate Tory leader, a truly awful Tory campaign and seven years of austerity in which most people saw no improvement in their living standards. If Corbyn cannot win against such a weak government and record then he has demonstrated his ineffectiveness and should do the decent thing and go at once - and apologise for his failure as he leaves.
    I get the sentiment, but because of the strength of the SNP what constitutes a 'win' for Corbyn is hard to define.
    If it is abject for Labour then Corbyn should depart with grace, however if there is even a one seat reduced majority for the Tories to my mind that constitutes a kind of win, even if it is a TKO. A kind of away goals counting double scenario if you like.
    I agree about another five years of pain under the Tories, but if their majority is small and their feet can be held to the fire enough, even the Tories might have to bring in some policies of hope. As for brexit, mystic Seth sees no happy landing there for anybody.
  • I don't think the 18 to 25 vote will increase much, if at all, as it will be easier to stay in bed, go to the pub, play x box or search tinder instead.

    I'll be ashamed of my fellow 18-25 year olds if so.
    Canterbury is a safe Tory seat despite the population being 70% students. Fact is not enough of us vote.
    How can it be 70%? That would imply nearly 50,000 students...
    Yep 3 unis over 45000 students.
    In that case only a small percentage are registered to vote there
    Probably true. I doubt that many are even registered to vote at all.
  • I agree. The tory campaign has been a joke. Went for the attack Corbyn approach which he has (surprisingly) stood up to and come out of quite well!

    Democracy works best when all parties focus on policies as then everyone can gague what the most popular policies are and those in government can steal some of the oppositions most popular policies and some kind of balance is found. Everyone is a winner.
  • I don't think the 18 to 25 vote will increase much, if at all, as it will be easier to stay in bed, go to the pub, play x box or search tinder instead.

    I'll be ashamed of my fellow 18-25 year olds if so.
    Canterbury is a safe Tory seat despite the population being 70% students. Fact is not enough of us vote.
    How can it be 70%? That would imply nearly 50,000 students...
    Yep 3 unis over 45000 students.
    In that case only a small percentage are registered to vote there
    Probably true. I doubt that many are even registered to vote at all.
    Can't believe I am spending my Wednesday night researching the Canterbury constituency, but I believe only 9,000 students are registered to vote :-)
  • I don't think the 18 to 25 vote will increase much, if at all, as it will be easier to stay in bed, go to the pub, play x box or search tinder instead.

    I'll be ashamed of my fellow 18-25 year olds if so.
    Canterbury is a safe Tory seat despite the population being 70% students. Fact is not enough of us vote.
    How can it be 70%? That would imply nearly 50,000 students...
    Yep 3 unis over 45000 students.
    In that case only a small percentage are registered to vote there
    Probably true. I doubt that many are even registered to vote at all.
    Can't believe I am spending my Wednesday night researching the Canterbury constituency, but I believe only 9,000 students are registered to vote :-)
    That is poor. Some will be registered to vote at home (where their parents live). My housemates are doing that as they are from a marginal seat.

    Students could easily make a difference here if enough engaged/were bothered.
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  • Has there been active campaigns in the Unis to get students to vote? And how succesful do people think they have been?

    Corbyn came to the biggest student area here in Leeds and I think it was very successful.

    Originally he planned to speak in a venue but so many people came that the police had to close off the whole road.

    image

    However I think that misses your question. Haven't experienced much from the University itself although I haven't been in that much (being in my final year).
    Apropos of uni's one of my local MP's thinks it's perfectly acceptable to appropriate the logos of our two local ones for his election materials without their consent.

    bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/15326328.Conor_Burns_calls_endorsement_claims____utter_nonsense____after_using_uni_logos_on_election_leaflets/

    From what I understand all the staff and many of the pupils are not too impressed he's tried to link himself with the universities.
  • Has there been active campaigns in the Unis to get students to vote? And how succesful do people think they have been?

    Corbyn came to the biggest student area here in Leeds and I think it was very successful.

    Originally he planned to speak in a venue but so many people came that the police had to close off the whole road.

    image

    However I think that misses your question. Haven't experienced much from the University itself although I haven't been in that much (being in my final year).
    That is a pretty busy street to shut off as well, the original venue was a bit like the Phoenix club though!
  • Losing this election could benefit Labour in the long run, unless they shift further left. Corbin has engaged well with the younger electorate who will hopefully stick with Labour next time out. May is now a diminished figure with a very difficult Brexit job of being responsible for developing trade contracts over the next few years. (May will not negotiate but she will be ultimately responsible for the trade deals that may not be as good as what we had inside the EU - watch this space.) She has to generate money for Trident/more police/new grammar schools etc so us plebs have to pay for that: expect VAT or National Insurance to go up. New University recruits will hate May for not letting them off £27k Uni fees as promised by Jez. NHS and Education is unlikely to improve but we can all hope! Labour will probably choose a more electable leader when Corbyn stands down; Benn, Starmer, Cooper are all decent imo but may struggle to connect with 'The People' like Corbyn has for the past two months. Finally the Liberals will recover at some point to eat into disaffected tories so the next election will be much closer, especially if the Scot Nats cock up. So lots of ifs and buts but I am trying to put on a brave face in view of a May Tory landslide tomorrow.

    Like you I am in the crumbs of comfort zone as well.
  • cabbles said:

    bobmunro said:

    Rob7Lee said:

    cabbles said:

    Fiiish said:

    This election is going one of three ways.

    1) Shy Tory syndrome rears its head again and May increases her majority, as was always expected. Corbyn is crushed and Labour finally ousts him. Most likely result.

    2) Reduced Tory majority or even hung Parliament. Wolves baying for May. Somewhat less likely.

    3) Labour is largest party. Very unlikely.

    Thursday 22.05 ought to be interesting like it was last time.

    It will be 1) for me. I went to bed on the evening of the 2015 election, woke up disappointed. I went to bed on the evening of the referendum vote, woke up disappointed. I went to bed on the evening of the US election and woke up disappointed. I can't see this being any different.

    I would love to see the Tories take a pasting, but can't see Labour getting enough votes. They've lost Scotland to Jimmy Cranky, that made up a lot of their seats in 2010 and before. The Tory voters aren't as vocal in the run to the election as Labour voters. There are millions out there that will just vote on the day, no fuss, no rallies etc.

    Would be great to see it be a lot tighter, I just won't get my hopes up
    Two things Cabbles...... clearly going to bed at these important times is effecting the results.... you snooze you lose :wink:

    Secondly I now need a new keyboard and am typing this on my phone as your jimmy cranky comment made me spit my tea out in laughter!
    Of more concern surely is that every time he goes to bed he wakes up disappointed!


    Not as concerned as his other half.
    I'm actually just about to get divorced.......








    :smiley:


    Oops. Sorry mate .
    That's okay mate. I got to go to Oldham away on Valentine's Day and Bristol City the season before on Boxing Day. Would never have got that during the marriage
  • CAFCsayer said:
    He backed labour last time. He's in Hampstead and Kilburn, his vote will count
  • I have no doubt at all that the Tory organisation will gain more power tomorrow and will use it to gain yet more. I'm just really sad that at my age I will probably not live to see a return to an administration which prioritises social justice and places it at the heart of what they do.

    My strategy for old age is stay as healthy as I can for as long as I can and then find the least painful way out to avoid dying with no dignity in an underfunded institution with underqualified staff or in a cold empty room. What a shame the great social project of the 1940s and 50s could be so easily dismantled and with such hateful triumphant fanfare. The end result of tomorrows election will be this - more people in this country will die in pain, alone, cold and hungry or as the victims of retributive attacks from those who fight hate with indiscriminate hate. But at least we will be able to do so free of any guidance or control from our neighbouring states.

    Yeeeeaaaahhhhh.... but could be worse though, eh?
  • I have no doubt at all that the Tory organisation will gain more power tomorrow and will use it to gain yet more. I'm just really sad that at my age I will probably not live to see a return to an administration which prioritises social justice and places it at the heart of what they do.

    My strategy for old age is stay as healthy as I can for as long as I can and then find the least painful way out to avoid dying with no dignity in an underfunded institution with underqualified staff or in a cold empty room. What a shame the great social project of the 1940s and 50s could be so easily dismantled and with such hateful triumphant fanfare. The end result of tomorrows election will be this - more people in this country will die in pain, alone, cold and hungry or as the victims of retributive attacks from those who fight hate with indiscriminate hate. But at least we will be able to do so free of any guidance or control from our neighbouring states.

    Yeeeeaaaahhhhh.... but could be worse though, eh?
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  • Well I am afraid that I don't believe what some of the polls suggest. I reckon there will be a Tory majority of around 75, and the reason is this article from a very smart marketing bloke called Mark Ritson.

    Unfortunately you will probably have to register to read it, but basically he is saying that the Tories havetow guys who really understand how to use Facebook to target messages to people in key constituencies (such as Eltham). He doesnt argue that the Tories have done anything illegal (other than the blatantly misleading ads themselves) nor does he suggest that Facebook as a company is helping the Tories. He doesnt rule out that Labour has recruited people who also understand how to use Facebook advertising effectively. He also believes that the Electoral Commission will be able to see how much they have spent, and not have a problem. The thing with Facebook is, how you spend it. Targetting. Here are some excerpts

    I think the Conservatives might win a majority on Thursday because they are better at marketing. Specifically, digital marketing. More specifically, Facebook advertising. And even more specifically, because Tom Edmunds and Craig Elder are smarter than me, you and probably most other marketers in the country.

    In 2015 the Conservative Party outspent Labour seven-fold on social media advertising and 50 times more than the Lib Dems. The Vote Leave campaign that secured Brexit spent 98% of its £6.8m budget on digital media (and most of that on Facebook); the same proportional spend should win the election once again later this week.

    There might be 650 constituencies at stake on Thursday when Britain goes to the polls but the reality is that 85% of them are locked up as safe seats. This election will be won or lost on the 100 or so constituencies where two or more possible parties could win on Thursday. The first and most important strategic decision is to devote all of your digital budget to this small slice of Britain.

    Traditionally, in an election campaign a party inevitably had to explain itself to the whole nation. With Facebook, however, all kinds of new possibilities present themselves. First, we can ignore the vast majority of voters, even in a target constituency, because we already know we have either got them or lost them. Instead we will target voters that are still likely to be making up their mind and still possible to convert to our cause.

    But let’s not stop there. While we try to get undecideds to vote for us, we will be spending at least as much effort and budget on those that will vote for our rivals and persuading them not to bother.

    Unlike traditional political advertising, which everyone gets to see and critique, Facebook ads are ‘dark’. That means other voters, other parties, even other supporters have no clue exactly who you are targeting with your ads. Never mind under-the-radar, Facebook advertising has no radar.

  • I have no doubt at all that the Tory organisation will gain more power tomorrow and will use it to gain yet more. I'm just really sad that at my age I will probably not live to see a return to an administration which prioritises social justice and places it at the heart of what they do.

    My strategy for old age is stay as healthy as I can for as long as I can and then find the least painful way out to avoid dying with no dignity in an underfunded institution with underqualified staff or in a cold empty room. What a shame the great social project of the 1940s and 50s could be so easily dismantled and with such hateful triumphant fanfare. The end result of tomorrows election will be this - more people in this country will die in pain, alone, cold and hungry or as the victims of retributive attacks from those who fight hate with indiscriminate hate. But at least we will be able to do so free of any guidance or control from our neighbouring states.

    Is it being so cheerful that has got you through so far?
  • I have no doubt at all that the Tory organisation will gain more power tomorrow and will use it to gain yet more. I'm just really sad that at my age I will probably not live to see a return to an administration which prioritises social justice and places it at the heart of what they do.

    My strategy for old age is stay as healthy as I can for as long as I can and then find the least painful way out to avoid dying with no dignity in an underfunded institution with underqualified staff or in a cold empty room. What a shame the great social project of the 1940s and 50s could be so easily dismantled and with such hateful triumphant fanfare. The end result of tomorrows election will be this - more people in this country will die in pain, alone, cold and hungry or as the victims of retributive attacks from those who fight hate with indiscriminate hate. But at least we will be able to do so free of any guidance or control from our neighbouring states.

    Is it being so cheerful that has got you through so far?
    No, it was these lovely pink fluffy clouds. I always find they help when reality is just tooooo icky.
  • Well I am afraid that I don't believe what some of the polls suggest. I reckon there will be a Tory majority of around 75, and the reason is this article from a very smart marketing bloke called Mark Ritson.

    Unfortunately you will probably have to register to read it, but basically he is saying that the Tories havetow guys who really understand how to use Facebook to target messages to people in key constituencies (such as Eltham). He doesnt argue that the Tories have done anything illegal (other than the blatantly misleading ads themselves) nor does he suggest that Facebook as a company is helping the Tories. He doesnt rule out that Labour has recruited people who also understand how to use Facebook advertising effectively. He also believes that the Electoral Commission will be able to see how much they have spent, and not have a problem. The thing with Facebook is, how you spend it. Targetting. Here are some excerpts

    I think the Conservatives might win a majority on Thursday because they are better at marketing. Specifically, digital marketing. More specifically, Facebook advertising. And even more specifically, because Tom Edmunds and Craig Elder are smarter than me, you and probably most other marketers in the country.

    In 2015 the Conservative Party outspent Labour seven-fold on social media advertising and 50 times more than the Lib Dems. The Vote Leave campaign that secured Brexit spent 98% of its £6.8m budget on digital media (and most of that on Facebook); the same proportional spend should win the election once again later this week.

    There might be 650 constituencies at stake on Thursday when Britain goes to the polls but the reality is that 85% of them are locked up as safe seats. This election will be won or lost on the 100 or so constituencies where two or more possible parties could win on Thursday. The first and most important strategic decision is to devote all of your digital budget to this small slice of Britain.

    Traditionally, in an election campaign a party inevitably had to explain itself to the whole nation. With Facebook, however, all kinds of new possibilities present themselves. First, we can ignore the vast majority of voters, even in a target constituency, because we already know we have either got them or lost them. Instead we will target voters that are still likely to be making up their mind and still possible to convert to our cause.

    But let’s not stop there. While we try to get undecideds to vote for us, we will be spending at least as much effort and budget on those that will vote for our rivals and persuading them not to bother.

    Unlike traditional political advertising, which everyone gets to see and critique, Facebook ads are ‘dark’. That means other voters, other parties, even other supporters have no clue exactly who you are targeting with your ads. Never mind under-the-radar, Facebook advertising has no radar.

    This is incredibly important, and this is something the Trump Campaign purported to do during the US election--namely targeting "swing counties" or rural areas with pointed social media adverts. There is also some indication that the GRU targeted similar areas with fake news headlines and stories.
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