As much as I’d love him to stay, Lyle would be silly to sign any extension with us (unless we offer crazy money). The smart move would be to assess your options in the summer and take whatever’s best. I assume there are clubs who are equally, if not more, rich than us and are more desperate to sign a top striker. Fingers crossed though.
As much as I’d love him to stay, Lyle would be silly to sign any extension with us (unless we offer crazy money). The smart move would be to assess your options in the summer and take whatever’s best. I assume there are clubs who are equally, if not more, rich than us and are more desperate to sign a top striker. Fingers crossed though.
Judging by his quote on Twitter, he’s already agreed a deal. He was talking about his pen not working! He’s gonna try and sheikh it!
BEWARE: Below is a massive transfer thought exercise. So yeah. It's long.
So, let's assume we are financially secure come January 1st. I hope that's a reasonable assumption, especially looking at Tahnoon Nimer's financial connections. We've been told that:
1. The priorities are Bowyer and Taylor's contracts;
2. We will have money to spend;
3. Southall is keen on Leko and Cullen as permanent deals.
Great.
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Let's assume Bowyer and Taylor get signed up for a few additional years, and that the figures below are halfway accurate.
We give Bowyer £20k a week (so £1m a year, just over double his current wage, as press reports at the time of the extension u-turn indicate his current deal is £400k for 2019/20), while Taylor gets £12k a week (trebling his current wage - again according to reports around the time of the Brentford saga).
That would equate to, for 2020/21, £1.6m. Chuck in some signing on fees, plus them being on that wage from Jan, and it's something like £2.5m-£3m. (Call it £3m.)
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Leko: I think around £5m would be a reasonable fee - possibly a slightly conservative one - taking into account the footballing financial climate; current ability; and his potential. He looks like he could be a really good player, but this is yet to be realised.
According to this random source I found online, he's on £3k a week. Let's assume we double that to £6k a week, maybe a bit more, plus a bit of a signing on fee, so £500k (to be generous). Rounding up... if he's signed in Jan, until the end of the 2020/21 season, let's presume that's an outlay of £6m.
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Then there's Cullen: nearly out of contract, I think £5m is a reasonable transfer fee. But then his wages are relatively high, according to Spotrac, who are somewhat more authoritative than most other sources on wages. I'm going to guess we offer him a slightly better deal, bit of a signing fee - so perhaps £10k a week and a couple hundred grand signing. ... Rounding up, again, until the end of the 2020/21 season, another outlay of £6m.
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So before we've turned around, securing the above on deals will cost us £15m. This is based on what could be complete conjecture (a la Napa). I also think that given how player transfer fees are currently amortised over a couple of years at least, that in terms of FFP, this would prove to be a smaller number than bolded above.
I don't think this is unreasonable spending, but equally, we need to be careful thinking about how much we can spend at any one time, or in any one window.
Thankfully, given how little I imagine we have spent this season so far, there's probably - if the new owners are as fiscally endowed as we think - room for another couple of signings in there. If so, I would prioritise a centre back, striker, and right back in that order.
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In theory we would then be left with around 16 first team players under contract (not including any potential new signings in January):
Not including Doughty/Vennings/Davison for the time being.
Of these, I'd expect us to try and move on at least Aneke, loan out Morgan again, possibly Lapslie, and maybe one other.
However, I'd guess we may wish to re-sign at least one of Solly/Matthews; possibly Sarr; and we'd want to evaluate what could be done with Field/JFC/Gallagher.
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So we'd still be looking for RB/CB/ST (as I said above), a left back, and probably at least one midfielder.
If we're looking at four or five players in the ballpark of Cullen/Leko's fees again, then that's easily another £20m on new signings, at least, I would hazard a guess at.
Do we have that money? ... Possibly. Maybe even probably. Either way, I don't think we should be thinking about splashing loads and loads of dosh about, if my numbers are even halfway close to the potential reality. But we could see some very decent improvement if Bowyer and Gallen are cannier than I!
I'm sure I read somewhere that one reason for buying Cullen and Leko was to free up loan spaces, so we wouldn't necessarily make any more big money purchases in January
It's possible that we might get them cheaper if we offer WBA/West Ham a buyback clause
With most of the out of contract players, I imagine that with our new circumstances we'd let them go anyway. I can't see Solly justifying a new contract as a pure player as sadly he's no longer good enough for an ambitious Championship club
As much as I’d love him to stay, Lyle would be silly to sign any extension with us (unless we offer crazy money). The smart move would be to assess your options in the summer and take whatever’s best. I assume there are clubs who are equally, if not more, rich than us and are more desperate to sign a top striker. Fingers crossed though.
Judging by his quote on Twitter, he’s already agreed a deal. He was talking about his pen not working! He’s gonna try and sheikh it!
Yeah I saw that. Seems a very stupid thing to do if you’re not 100% signing a new deal.
As much as I’d love him to stay, Lyle would be silly to sign any extension with us (unless we offer crazy money). The smart move would be to assess your options in the summer and take whatever’s best. I assume there are clubs who are equally, if not more, rich than us and are more desperate to sign a top striker. Fingers crossed though.
Brentford were rumoured to offer him £10k a week, so I would assume we would want to offer at least that much. If our new owners are as rich as speculated then that would, theoretically, be within our capabilities.
Arsenal apparently recalling Nketiah from Leeds in Jan, and want to loan him out to another Championship side.
Previously we'd have had no chance competing with wages, but you wonder if the takeover giving us more spending power, plus our decent track record with Arsenal loanees may give us a fighting chance ahead of other clubs (Bristol City are the ones mentioned in this article)...
Arsenal apparently recalling Nketiah from Leeds in Jan, and want to loan him out to another Championship side.
Previously we'd have had no chance competing with wages, but you wonder if the takeover giving us more spending power, plus our decent track record with Arsenal loanees may give us a fighting chance ahead of other clubs (Bristol City are the ones mentioned in this article)...
You'd hope Gallen is at least going to make a call.
Arsenal apparently recalling Nketiah from Leeds in Jan, and want to loan him out to another Championship side.
Previously we'd have had no chance competing with wages, but you wonder if the takeover giving us more spending power, plus our decent track record with Arsenal loanees may give us a fighting chance ahead of other clubs (Bristol City are the ones mentioned in this article)...
The problem is that Bristol City are 5th and going well, and if we don't get more bodies back soon, then by January 1st we could well be bottom 6. It's not going to be about money (as Bristol will pay his wages anyway), it's going to be about him going to a club chasing promotion.
I’d love us to go in for Herbie Kane at Liverpool. Only 20 years old and is out of contract in the summer
Be curious to see if he's in the Liverpool team that faces Aston Villa in the League Cup - He's not been included in the squad heading out for the Club World Cup
I’d love us to go in for Herbie Kane at Liverpool. Only 20 years old and is out of contract in the summer
Be curious to see if he's in the Liverpool team that faces Aston Villa in the League Cup - He's not been included in the squad heading out for the Club World Cup
He scored for their U23s the other night so i'm sure he will play in the league cup.
Call me cynical ...... but signing a player who has not played competitively for nearly a year and a half, and expecting him to quickly cope with the physical intensity of Bowyer's gameplan, may be asking for trouble?
If we do sign Ledley ...... let's hope he doesn't come on for 15 minutes as a late sub, before missing the next 6 weeks with a groin or hamstring injury.
@PaddyP17 is spot on. IMO getting Taylor to sign a contract he is happy with is only part of the problem. I did read 20k a week being banded around when Brentford came sniffing. Regardless if that is true or not any contract he does sign, if he signs, will be on considerably more than he is on now. I don't have a problem with that.
What is a problem though is he will be on considerably more than EVERYONE else. If you give Taylor say 15k a week, what will any new signings want? What will Williams and Lockyer want to extend their contracts? Maybe not "Taylor money" but a lot more than they are on now.
You could in effect double the wage bill just by signing Cullen and Leko, renewing Taylor's contract and extensions for 2 or 3 players. All without significantly improving the team.
A bit of investment can be dangerous, if Roland had increased the wage budget by say 1 million and made 2 million avaliable for transfer fees in the summer, would we have a significantly better team? Or just be paying the same, or similar, players more?
@PaddyP17 is spot on. IMO getting Taylor to sign a contract he is happy with is only part of the problem. I did read 20k a week being banded around when Brentford came sniffing. Regardless if that is true or not any contract he does sign, if he signs, will be on considerably more than he is on now. I don't have a problem with that.
What is a problem though is he will be on considerably more than EVERYONE else. If you give Taylor say 15k a week, what will any new signings want? What will Williams and Lockyer want to extend their contracts? Maybe not "Taylor money" but a lot more than they are on now.
You could in effect double the wage bill just by signing Cullen and Leko, renewing Taylor's contract and extensions for 2 or 3 players. All without significantly improving the team.
A bit of investment can be dangerous, if Roland had increased the wage budget by say 1 million and made 2 million avaliable for transfer fees in the summer, would we have a significantly better team? Or just be paying the same, or similar, players more?
I get your point but if the new owners want to build a side that has the aim of getting promotion to the premier league then i'd argue that players on 15k a week would be the norm rather than us over paying.
Unless you work miracles you quite likely aren't going to finish top 2 in the championship with players on 5-6k a week.
As much as I’d love him to stay, Lyle would be silly to sign any extension with us (unless we offer crazy money). The smart move would be to assess your options in the summer and take whatever’s best. I assume there are clubs who are equally, if not more, rich than us and are more desperate to sign a top striker. Fingers crossed though.
Judging by his quote on Twitter, he’s already agreed a deal. He was talking about his pen not working! He’s gonna try and sheikh it!
Yeah I saw that. Seems a very stupid thing to do if you’re not 100% signing a new deal.
I've a feeling Taylor doesn't think through everything he puts on social media.
@PaddyP17 is spot on. IMO getting Taylor to sign a contract he is happy with is only part of the problem. I did read 20k a week being banded around when Brentford came sniffing. Regardless if that is true or not any contract he does sign, if he signs, will be on considerably more than he is on now. I don't have a problem with that.
What is a problem though is he will be on considerably more than EVERYONE else. If you give Taylor say 15k a week, what will any new signings want? What will Williams and Lockyer want to extend their contracts? Maybe not "Taylor money" but a lot more than they are on now.
You could in effect double the wage bill just by signing Cullen and Leko, renewing Taylor's contract and extensions for 2 or 3 players. All without significantly improving the team.
A bit of investment can be dangerous, if Roland had increased the wage budget by say 1 million and made 2 million avaliable for transfer fees in the summer, would we have a significantly better team? Or just be paying the same, or similar, players more?
I get your point but if the new owners want to build a side that has the aim of getting promotion to the premier league then i'd argue that players on 15k a week would be the norm rather than us over paying.
Unless you work miracles you quite likely aren't going to finish top 2 in the championship with players on 5-6k a week.
Which comes back to my final paragraph. If that's your level of investment you aren't going to "guarantee" promotion, you risk being close to, or actually breaking FFP, if you have some serious bad luck it's not unthinkable you could go down.
If your not going to spend enough to almost guarantee promotion what's the point in investing more than the minimum and paying over the odds?
As I have said before Bowyer has a very different job to the one he had before.
Comments
He was talking about his pen not working! He’s gonna try and sheikh it!
It's possible that we might get them cheaper if we offer WBA/West Ham a buyback clause
With most of the out of contract players, I imagine that with our new circumstances we'd let them go anyway. I can't see Solly justifying a new contract as a pure player as sadly he's no longer good enough for an ambitious Championship club
Arsenal apparently recalling Nketiah from Leeds in Jan, and want to loan him out to another Championship side.
Previously we'd have had no chance competing with wages, but you wonder if the takeover giving us more spending power, plus our decent track record with Arsenal loanees may give us a fighting chance ahead of other clubs (Bristol City are the ones mentioned in this article)...
Then the chickens would have come home to roost !
It's not going to be about money (as Bristol will pay his wages anyway), it's going to be about him going to a club chasing promotion.
The same will probably apply to Brewster as well.
https://twitter.com/sportspeteo/status/1202911936251355137?s=21
If we do sign Ledley ...... let's hope he doesn't come on for 15 minutes as a late sub, before missing the next 6 weeks with a groin or hamstring injury.
What is a problem though is he will be on considerably more than EVERYONE else. If you give Taylor say 15k a week, what will any new signings want? What will Williams and Lockyer want to extend their contracts? Maybe not "Taylor money" but a lot more than they are on now.
You could in effect double the wage bill just by signing Cullen and Leko, renewing Taylor's contract and extensions for 2 or 3 players. All without significantly improving the team.
A bit of investment can be dangerous, if Roland had increased the wage budget by say 1 million and made 2 million avaliable for transfer fees in the summer, would we have a significantly better team? Or just be paying the same, or similar, players more?
Unless you work miracles you quite likely aren't going to finish top 2 in the championship with players on 5-6k a week.
If your not going to spend enough to almost guarantee promotion what's the point in investing more than the minimum and paying over the odds?
As I have said before Bowyer has a very different job to the one he had before.