I don't know how this guy calculates his xG to be honest.
Yep this is the problem with the fan-made xG numbers. Unfortunately the more reliable measurements done by the clever people at Opta/Statsbomb/etc. aren't publicly available. There is one bloke on twitter who admitted to doing his calculations entirely from the BBC/Sky text feed!
Some people booing because we a have a small number of fans who are over entitled pricks.
I think if you pay £30 for a ticket & in the first 30 mins you are pegged back in your own half without mustering an attack I think you're entitled to boo.
I didn't as I cant see the point. BG has says this is the way we are going to play so we just have to put up with it.
i didn't hear any booing at half time - don't get me wrong, the first half was really bad but the crowd was good and the atmosphere was very good all second half
I was in CE Upper, and there was loads of booing at half time. Impossible to miss. Wasn't happy about it at all. Talk about fans showing patience and the new system and new players bed in! Lol.
Overall I thought it was a match that'll live in the memory. Had we not turned around the performance at half time (and yes, there were signs of improvement six or seven minutes before HT), I think we'd be in meltdown here, post match. Instead we're looking at a solid four points from our first two games, something you'd have taken with both hands when the fixtures were published.
Wallacott was excellent, but it would have taken a poor keeper to have allowed us to go in 3-0 down at half time, as some suggested we should have done. Match stats say Derby only had two shots on target all match, although they should have at least tested Jojo with the free header in the second half, and Collins should have scored when he hit the post in the first.
In the first half hour Derby looked head and shoulders above us, both in terms of ability and tactics. We were unable to get hang on to the ball with our entire midfield seemingly going missing, with the wide men barely got a touch. My mate and I were saying how much we needed the Dobson of last season, and much as you don't want to see a player injured it was good to see Dobson joining the fray in the 31st minute. He gradually started to get involved, breaking up play, and moving the ball effectively. And what a relief it was to see him back to something like his form of last season after underperforming slightly in the pre season friendlies.
I was wondering if Derby might start getting nervous after failing to turn their early dominance in to goals, and when Kirk and CBT started to get involved there were the first signs that it might not all be one way traffic. Stockley will be kicking himself for missing what looked like a straight forward chance, but replays showed it was a flying header, not quite as simple a chance as it first appeared, and Wildsmith pulled off the save of the match to keep it out. Even so, we couldn't have complained had we gone in behind at half time.
The second half was an entirely different matter, with a hugely improved performance both from the team and the fans. It was great to hear 'The reds are going up' sung at full volume again!
The entire team played on a much higher level in the second half, and showed much more self belief. Inniss won everything in the air as Derby started to throw in long balls to the front men because we were pressing them well (despite the heat). Even O'Connell improved after a very poor first half. His weak header back to Wallacott that was intercepted by Collins reminded me of two that Pearcy did in previous seasons, both of which led to goals - when the ball is heading away from you it's very hard to get any meaningful contact on it with your head, particularly when you're nowhere near the keeper! [Edit: Just noticed that (ironically) ITV mis-identified O'Connell as Jason Pearce!]
Clare, although he made a few mistakes, was imperious at times. He can be a great player for us. CBT looked a real threat and put in another great cross, which Stockley headed straight at the keeper, albeit under pressure from a defender. Kirk is beginning to show why we bought him. Sessegnon is a class act and Morgan had a very good second half, showing the sort of form we always hoped he might, but seldom does. More of the same and he'll have maybe cemented his place in the starting line up. Fraser was slightly disappointing, showing a tendency to get caught in possession, but perhaps that will improve with games. However, having seen a bit more of Payne I can see the latter starting in Fraser's place. What a player he looks like. Absolute nightmare to play against, a real in yer face pocket rocket. Haven't we been crying out for a player like that for years? I can see him starting, and being a massive player for us (despite his diminutive size). Dobson was excellent, and needs to start, no matter who we are playing. He's not just a ball winner. He can play a bit too!
Garner's use of subs was spot on. Lots of fresh legs were required due to the heat - I hadn't realised how hot it was until walking to the station after the game! Overall I loved that match in the way that it was such a roller coaster ride. Initial hope and expectation overtaken by despair at the poor start, glimpses of hope, the thrill of a much closer contest, the pride as we began to dominate, and the joy at the goal - followed by relief at the final whistle.
Up the Addicks!
I was in north upper as well so booing not impossible to miss / being overstated definitely
I don't hate the XG stat but how on earth do Derby have a xg of 1.4?
Absolute sitter in the second half, along with 2/3 in the first!
The 'absolute sitter' looks to have been assigned 0.15 - 0.2 xG, a bit more than Jayden's header that was from a similar distance late in the first half (Jayden received 0.1-0.15 xG). I suspect that's probably because it was a headed opportunity, which historically is a lower quality chance compared to other shots. If the Derby player had taken a shot with his foot from the same position, I'm guessing it'd be closer to 0.4.
The two standout chances in the first half are both shots from the boot of James Collins. His first shot was assigned around 0.3 - 0.35 xG and the second shot right on half time was given around 0.4 xG. There was another impressive reflex save made by Wollacott but it didn't come from a shot so isn't included in the shots stats, or the xG stats. (Derby had only two shots on target, in the 8th minute and the 19th minute. But Wollacott made three "saves" including the reflex palm away.)
According to this model, CBT had the best chance of the entire match. Near enough 0.5 xG with an open goal. This perhaps shows the limitation of making xG work with limited data in League One because I'd suggest that that was a better than 50/50 chance.
I think a fair few xG models (particularly those used at lower levels) don’t even take into account the position of the defenders or goalkeeper which is why the CBT goal and some of the other probably feel underrated by xG.
Interestingly saw today we have created the 2nd most xG from open play this season in league 1, but also conceded the most in the league! Entertaining football as promised and no surprises that Woollcott ranks best in the league for goals prevented so far and without him we’d probably be on 0 points
I don't know how this guy calculates his xG to be honest.
Yep this is the problem with the fan-made xG numbers. Unfortunately the more reliable measurements done by the clever people at Opta/Statsbomb/etc. aren't publicly available. There is one bloke on twitter who admitted to doing his calculations entirely from the BBC/Sky text feed!
Some people booing because we a have a small number of fans who are over entitled pricks.
I think if you pay £30 for a ticket & in the first 30 mins you are pegged back in your own half without mustering an attack I think you're entitled to boo.
I didn't as I cant see the point. BG has says this is the way we are going to play so we just have to put up with it.
Golfie surely even you can see that we are trying to play football ? We all knew it would take a bit of time to bed in but the signs are there. I would personally rather watch decent football being played even if it leads to that 1st half performance now and again than pay less and watch the shit being dished up last season. I think Garner has been fortunate in that we have 4 pts on the board which could quite easily been 0 and then the knives would be out already. Maybe he is a lucky manager which is worth a few extra points a year. Plus point was it wasnt working so he changed it. Previous managers would have carried on and then moaned afterwards
For a player whose stock in trade is his heading prowess that really was some miss by Stockley. I suppose they don’t all go in but a free header from a perfect cross just a few yards out should have been a goal.
While I agree but at the same time one has to give some credit to the goalkeeper for making a very good reflex save.
Interesting when Wallocott did the same at our end everyone rightly acknowledged what a good save it was, no doubt the Derby fans may have been calling their player involved, a donkey!
What looks simple in the stands is not always the same in the moment on the field.
He should have scored.
As should the German woman in the Euros final with the open goal who kicked it straight at Earps. Go figure.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
Horses for course, and getting it right more often than not will be the key this season. We aren't good enough to just turn up, play and expect to win. We saw that last season when we used the same horse if we were running the Derby or the Grand National.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
Horses for course, and getting it right more often than not will be the key this season. We aren't good enough to just turn up, play and expect to win. We saw that last season when we used the same horse if we were running the Derby or the Grand National.
Agree, I doubt Garner will be as inflexible as Jackson & Bowyer were. I am unsure about Adkins flexibility, but from what I have heard he was allegedly stubborn behind the scenes.
Garner was accused of being inflexible last season, but looking at the stats and results, I am not sure that was entirely fair.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
Horses for course, and getting it right more often than not will be the key this season. We aren't good enough to just turn up, play and expect to win. We saw that last season when we used the same horse if we were running the Derby or the Grand National.
Agree, I doubt Garner will be as inflexible as Jackson & Bowyer were. I am unsure about Adkins flexibility, but from what I have heard he was allegedly stubborn behind the scenes.
Garner was accused of being inflexible last season, but looking at the stats and results, I am not sure that was entirely fair.
Bowyer was the complete opposite of inflexible. He played pretty much every formation going sometimes multiple in the same game. If anything he was too flexible and was much better when he stuck to just the 4-4-2 diamond and 3-5-2
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
Horses for course, and getting it right more often than not will be the key this season. We aren't good enough to just turn up, play and expect to win. We saw that last season when we used the same horse if we were running the Derby or the Grand National.
Agree, I doubt Garner will be as inflexible as Jackson & Bowyer were. I am unsure about Adkins flexibility, but from what I have heard he was allegedly stubborn behind the scenes.
Garner was accused of being inflexible last season, but looking at the stats and results, I am not sure that was entirely fair.
Let's all hope he is successful as what Bowyer was in his first full season
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
Horses for course, and getting it right more often than not will be the key this season. We aren't good enough to just turn up, play and expect to win. We saw that last season when we used the same horse if we were running the Derby or the Grand National.
Agree, I doubt Garner will be as inflexible as Jackson & Bowyer were. I am unsure about Adkins flexibility, but from what I have heard he was allegedly stubborn behind the scenes.
Garner was accused of being inflexible last season, but looking at the stats and results, I am not sure that was entirely fair.
Bowyer was the complete opposite of inflexible. He played pretty much every formation going sometimes multiple in the same game. If anything he was too flexible and was much better when he stuck to just the 4-4-2 diamond and 3-5-2
I'd say he was still pretty inflexible. He'd happily move the shape around but his requirements were incredibly rigid. You had to work hard, put in your challenges, and be aggressive. There was no room for anything else and the team could never evolve past a certain type of performance. In the end we ran out of steam because it didn't matter how many different formations he tried, how many strikers he put at wing-back or right backs at left back, there was only one way and teams had figured out how to get at his style.
3 points by any means you take every day of the week and long may it continue but a side with better finishing in front of goal will punish that defence and you won’t be able to get your keeper to have a blinder every game.
We won’t play as poorly as we did in the first half every week.
Every week, don’t be daft. But we will get done sooner rather than later. Look at the sitter in the second half from Knight?
Not been a goal down yet. What will the reaction be to that?
Maybe, it’s also possible we improve defensively. We need to find our best midfield three and I’m expecting a centre back to sign as we only have three seniors players in that position.
We’ll have to wait and see. We’ve scored three well worked goals, I don’t think goalscoring will be as big an issue as some fear.
Keeping the goals out is my worry as we have rode our luck in both games and have the worst xg against stat in the league by some margin after 2 games with 3.8. Second on that list is Peterborough with 3.1 followed by Burton on 2.9.
What's an xg stat...is it calculated?
It's basically a stat that suggests how many goals your would have been expected to score based on the chances you had. Obviously you can't score a fraction of a goal so it can be misleading but with an xg of 1.6 a return of 1 or 2 goals would be expected.
It uses the shot position essentially to suggest how many goals would be expected to be scored from that position. For example a penalty kick has an expected goals of 0.79, which means 4 times out of 5 on average you'd expect a goal from one. It obviously isn't perfect as it doesn't account for the quality of the player, nor as far as I'm aware where the keeper is.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
Horses for course, and getting it right more often than not will be the key this season. We aren't good enough to just turn up, play and expect to win. We saw that last season when we used the same horse if we were running the Derby or the Grand National.
Agree, I doubt Garner will be as inflexible as Jackson & Bowyer were. I am unsure about Adkins flexibility, but from what I have heard he was allegedly stubborn behind the scenes.
Garner was accused of being inflexible last season, but looking at the stats and results, I am not sure that was entirely fair.
I like Garner, but hope he does realise that having a player like Dobson anchoring is a 'necessary evil' for his system. We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Given how he managed to make the tactical changes against Derby and we saw the improvement I'm optimistic he is flexible and astute enough to make changes to his system if needed.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
Although bringing Dobson on was not tactical, but due to McGrandles injury. I think Garner was lucky at that point because Dobson changed the game for us.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Against some sides it might well work. Against a side tipped to be at the top of the table it didn't, but this side are still learning about themselves in this formation and about one another.
Horses for course, and getting it right more often than not will be the key this season. We aren't good enough to just turn up, play and expect to win. We saw that last season when we used the same horse if we were running the Derby or the Grand National.
Agree, I doubt Garner will be as inflexible as Jackson & Bowyer were. I am unsure about Adkins flexibility, but from what I have heard he was allegedly stubborn behind the scenes.
Garner was accused of being inflexible last season, but looking at the stats and results, I am not sure that was entirely fair.
Comments
On the topic, this is a cool guide to creating your own basic xG model: https://differentgame.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/an-xg-model-for-everyone-in-20-minutes-ish/
I didn't as I cant see the point. BG has says this is the way we are going to play so we just have to put up with it.
Half of these look like they've been done by a person only following the BBC text commentary.
Interestingly saw today we have created the 2nd most xG from open play this season in league 1, but also conceded the most in the league! Entertaining football as promised and no surprises that Woollcott ranks best in the league for goals prevented so far and without him we’d probably be on 0 points
The Opta stats are viewable using the Fotmob app this season for League 1:
So, going by Opta then, our last two games have had the following xG:
Charlton 1.60 - 1.13 Derby
Accrington 2.63 - 1.14 Charlton
Charlton 1.60 - 1.13 Derby
- Collins 9' 0.10
- Smith 9' 0.08
- Smith 15' 0.08
- Collins 17' 0.04
- Morgan 18' 0.02
- Mendez-Laing 20' 0.02
- O'Connell 23' 0.05
- Collins 36' 0.11
- Hourihane 41' 0.04
- Kirk 43' 0.01
- Stockley 44' 0.32
- Collins 45+4' 0.20
- Stockley 50' 0.03
- Stockley 58' 0.04
- Morgan 62' 0.05
- Blackett-Taylor 62' 0.79 (GOAL)
- Sibley 64' 0.07
- Kirk 66' 0.06
- Knight 68' 0.20
- Bird 69' 0.02
- Morgan 78' 0.01
- Inniss 79' 0.02
- Dobbin 80' 0.07
- Collins 86' 0.12
- Payne 90+3' 0.07
- Jaiyesimi 90+6' 0.05
- Morgan 90+6' 0.07
Accrington 2.63 - 1.14 Charlton
- Clare 9' 0.02
- Pritchard 9' 0.02
- Jaiyesimi 12' 0.14
- Lowe 14' 0.14
- Rodgers 18' 0.02
- Whalley 26' 0.02
- McConville 30' 0.06
- Fraser 32' 0.03
- Whalley 35' 0.18
- Fraser 36' 0.39 (GOAL)
- Blackett-Taylor 40' 0.07
- Morgan 44' 0.04
- Jaiyesimi 44' 0.04
- Morgan 45+1' 0.05
- Hamilton 45+3' 0.03
- Coyle 50' 0.25
- Lowe 52' 0.20
- Lowe 52' 0.25
- Hamilton 53' 0.01
- Stockley 54' 0.12
- O'Connell 56' 0.00
- Clark 57' 0.02
- Hamilton 58' 0.02
- McConville 58' 0.01
- Pritchard 59' 0.03
- Pritchard 62' 0.04
- Whalley 62' 0.50
- McConville 69' 0.34 (GOAL)
- Sangare 80' 0.01
- Adedoyin 85' 0.18
- Pell 90' 0.04
- McConville 90' 0.02
- Leaburn 90+4' 0.25 (GOAL)
- Adedoyin 90+6' 0.27 (GOAL)
We have given away too many opportunities in the first 2 games, although many of those were self-inflicted within the defence itself.
If Garner is the cerebral manager that he appears to be, I'm hoping he can spot this and adapt. As clearly his original plan was to have 3 more technical passers in the midfield without a specialist DM.
Last season we saw the peril of stickng rigidly to a single system and plugging square pegs in round holes, and in midfield at least he's got plenty of options for changing it.
If Dobson does not start on Saturday we will know Garner has not learned his lesson and still thinks our midfield can be three ball players, despite us having been overrun in the first half against Derby.
Garner was accused of being inflexible last season, but looking at the stats and results, I am not sure that was entirely fair.
It's basically a stat that suggests how many goals your would have been expected to score based on the chances you had. Obviously you can't score a fraction of a goal so it can be misleading but with an xg of 1.6 a return of 1 or 2 goals would be expected.
It uses the shot position essentially to suggest how many goals would be expected to be scored from that position. For example a penalty kick has an expected goals of 0.79, which means 4 times out of 5 on average you'd expect a goal from one. It obviously isn't perfect as it doesn't account for the quality of the player, nor as far as I'm aware where the keeper is.