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Cheltenham festival 2024

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  • both c hill and stateman now 1/2 
  • con hill to potentially miss out on cheltenham. 

    By all accounts, the horse started to drift like the Kon Tiki on Betfair before Henderson made his announcement. That is insider trading and in the old days suitable action, from memory, would have been taken - either the market was suspended because someone like Henderson or Nicholls were article contributors would let the PR man before it went into the public domain or bets were voided back to that point. Can't speak for the traditional bookies though.  
    TBF to Nicky it was a public workout with plenty of press/racing observers in attendance so it's no great surprise he drifted like a barge. There were videos up on X almost immediately of the horse being effectively pulled up in a racecourse gallop so the market would react accordingly
  • both c hill and stateman now 1/2 
    On Betfair exchange State Man around evens and Constitution Hill 6/4, but that won't be NRNB.
  • edited February 27
    BertieB said:
    con hill to potentially miss out on cheltenham. 

    By all accounts, the horse started to drift like the Kon Tiki on Betfair before Henderson made his announcement. That is insider trading and in the old days suitable action, from memory, would have been taken - either the market was suspended because someone like Henderson or Nicholls were article contributors would let the PR man before it went into the public domain or bets were voided back to that point. Can't speak for the traditional bookies though.  
    TBF to Nicky it was a public workout with plenty of press/racing observers in attendance so it's no great surprise he drifted like a barge. There were videos up on X almost immediately of the horse being effectively pulled up in a racecourse gallop so the market would react accordingly
    Fair enough but I've always been slightly cynical given I was working for Betfair at the time of the infamous Kicking King episode. The owner announced that KK had picked up an infection and that it would be ridiculous to run the horse in the Gold Cup. After the horse had drifted all the way out to 1000 and some 10 days before the race, the trainer, Tom Taaffe stated that KK had improved and that he was now "hopeful". It went off 4/1 favourite and the rest, as they say, is history! 
  • BertieB said:
    con hill to potentially miss out on cheltenham. 

    By all accounts, the horse started to drift like the Kon Tiki on Betfair before Henderson made his announcement. That is insider trading and in the old days suitable action, from memory, would have been taken - either the market was suspended because someone like Henderson or Nicholls were article contributors would let the PR man before it went into the public domain or bets were voided back to that point. Can't speak for the traditional bookies though.  
    TBF to Nicky it was a public workout with plenty of press/racing observers in attendance so it's no great surprise he drifted like a barge. There were videos up on X almost immediately of the horse being effectively pulled up in a racecourse gallop so the market would react accordingly
    Fair enough but I've always been slightly cynical given I was working for Betfair at the time of the infamous Kicking King episode. The owner announced that KK had picked up an infection and that it would be ridiculous to run the horse in the Gold Cup. After the horse had drifted all the way out to 1000 and some 10 days before the race, the trainer, Tom Taaffe stated that KK had improved and that he was now "hopeful". It went off 4/1 favourite and the rest, as they say, is history! 
    Haha that is a great story and of course all sorts of skulduggery does go on. I recall a few years ago, Nicky Henderson ruling Binocular out of the Champion hurdle with an injury a month before the race only to report him A1 and declared him for it the Wednesday before. Sure enough he gagged up. I'm sure his owner JP McManus had one of his modest bets on it....
  • edited February 27
    The fact that CH scoped badly is not a total surprise given Nicky Henderson's runners recently:

    5/7       4/1 (one of the two horses behind pulled up)
    PU       12/1
    PU         9/2
    PU         9/2
    3/7      17/2
    PU        12/1
    PU        11/2

    Henderson's horses tend to be overbet but, even taking that into account, to have 7 runners of which 5 have failed to finish and combined have only managed to beat just 4 runners between them, is very disappointing.  Henderson notionally has 9 runners entered up at the 5-day stage at what is one of his favourite and most successful courses, Newbury, on Friday. It will be interesting to see how many actually do run and how well they do too. 

     



  • The fact that CH scoped badly is not a total surprise given Nicky Henderson's runners recently:

    5/7       4/1 (one of the two horses behind pulled up)
    PU       12/1
    PU         9/2
    PU         9/2
    3/7      17/2
    PU        12/1
    PU        11/2

    Henderson's horses tend to be overbet but, even taking that into account, to have 7 runners of which 5 have failed to finish and combined have only managed to beat just 4 runners between them, is very disappointing.  Henderson notionally has 9 runners entered up at the 5-day stage at what is one of his favourite and most successful courses, Newbury, on Friday. It will be interesting to see how many actually do run and how well they do too. 

     



    Just one runner from the nine declared - The Bomber Liston in the 1.50. 
  • On CH:

    image
    Massive reaction to that on the Betfair Exchange. State Man now 1.61 and Constitution Hill 4.5.
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  • State Man now best price 2/5 after Constitution Hill was withdrawn from the race.
  • Marine Nationale out as well now
  • there are 6 "nailed on" faves according to the betting

    ballyburn 4/5
    stateman 1/3
    lossiemouth 8/15 
    fact to file 4/5
    el fabiolio 1/2
    sir gino - 8/13

    how many win?

    ballyburn 
    sir gino 
    fact to file 
    to all be turned over imo 
  • there are 6 "nailed on" faves according to the betting

    ballyburn 4/5
    stateman 1/3
    lossiemouth 8/15 
    fact to file 4/5
    el fabiolio 1/2
    sir gino - 8/13

    how many win?

    ballyburn 
    sir gino 
    fact to file 
    to all be turned over imo 
    Don't think so.
  • I will be very interested to see how Nicky Henderson's horses run. In the last three weeks he's had 15 runners of which no less than nine have pulled up. One of the other six did win but that horse might not have been stabled in the same area as those that haven't run a race. He hasn't had a single runner for eight days either but has Fierce Warrior in the Plumpton 2.00 tomorrow. 
  • Big drift on sir gino last night but now coming back in
  • my losers for day 1

    1.30 firefox 
    supreme novices chase jeriko du reponet 
    2.10 quixilous 
    arkle chase matata ew
    2.50 the goffer 
    ultima chase  
    3.30 iberico lord
    champion hurdle  iberico lord wo stateman 
    4.10 you wear it well ew
    mares hurdle
    4.50 ose patir ew
    boodles paloman ew
    5.30 salvador ziggy 
    national hunt chase kilbeg king 
  • my sisters tips for tuesday

    13.30 Tullyjill
    14.10 Etait Temps
    14.50 Chianti Classico
    15.30 State man
    16.10 Lossiemouth
    16.50 Teorie
    17,30 Embassy Gardens.
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  • I will be very interested to see how Nicky Henderson's horses run. In the last three weeks he's had 15 runners of which no less than nine have pulled up. One of the other six did win but that horse might not have been stabled in the same area as those that haven't run a race. He hasn't had a single runner for eight days either but has Fierce Warrior in the Plumpton 2.00 tomorrow. 

    A bit of an inconclusive run. Went off third favourite (drifted from an early 3/1 out to 9/2) and finished a well beaten 20 length 5th. At least it finished the race. 
  • edited March 11
    watched the paddy power preview see below for summary. 


    Ruby walsh  lydia hislop tony mullins johnny dinneen 
    Tuesday 



    1.30
    ballyburn  tellherthename  ballyburn 
    2.10 master chewy found a fifty
    quixilous 
    2.50 giovinco  aye right meetingofthewaters chianti classico
    3.30 stateman  stateman  stateman  stateman 
    4.10
    maries rock  lossiemouth 
    4.50 ose partir  roaring legend milan tino  milan tino 
    5.30 corbetts cross salvador ziggy  corbetts cross corbetts cross
    nap  ballyburn  found a fifty corbetts cross milan tino 





    Wednesday 



    1.30 slade steel  mystical power mystical power predators gold
    2.10 fact to file  grey dawning  fact to file  montys star 
    2.50
    doddiethegreat brazil 
    3.30 jonbon 
    edwardstone  el fabiolo
    4.10 galvin 
    foxy jacks  minella indo 
    4.50 frero banbou  liberty hunter
    path d'oroux 
    5.30 argento boy
    argento boy cantico 
    nap  argento boy doddiethegreat fact to file  montys star 





    Thursday 



    1.30 iroko gaelic warrior  grey dawning grey dawning
    2.10 gauth coil 

    chantry house
    2.50 envoi allen  protektorat
    banbridge 
    3.30 noble yeats teahupoo  irish point  teahupoo
    4.10 sharjah  letsbeclearaboutit madara crebilly
    4.50 jade du grugy brighterdaysahead jade du grugy brighterdaysahead
    5.30 amrite/whereitallbegan 


    Naps  noble yeats letsbeclearaboutit irish point  crebilly 
    Friday 



    1.30 bunting wo  nurburingring wo majborugh storm heart wo 
    2.10 king of kingsfield  iberico lord 

    2.50 reading tommy wrong  reading tommy wrong  dancing city stellar story 
    3.30 galopin des champs  galopin des champs  corach rambler fastorslow 
    4.10


    its on the line 
    4.50 dinoblue  allegorie de vassy 
    allegorie de vassy 
    5.30 qaui de bourbon 
    bad 
    nap  galopin des champs  iberico lord  corach rambler its on the line 






    Thanks for posting this, but I think the first races of Tuesday and Wednesday have been swapped - Ballyburn runs on Wednesday and Mystical Power on Tuesday.
  • Sky Bet free bet first race tomorrow
    Money back.if 2nd or 3rd on 888


  • Paddy power given me a £1 bet
  • clb74 said:
    Paddy power given me a £1 bet
    Don't spend it all at once...
  • Got untold ew lucky 15’s always follow jibber jabber on Twitter, he gave she wears it well at 50’s had it ew now 16’s, got a friend who
    lives in Cheltenham and he spoke to Master Chewy’s stable lad who said they have been holding him back for this. Can’t wait for tomorrow, I have a share in Stage Star with the owners group so will be backing him.
  • 1.30 - 1pt e/w FIREFOX - 6/1
    2.10 - 0.5pts e/w JPR ONE - 11/1
    2.50 - 0.5pts e/w EKLAT DE RIRE - 18/1; 0.5pts e/w FAMOUS BRIDGE - 14/1
    3.30 - 0.5pts e/w NEMEAN LION - 25/1
    4.10 - 0.5pts e/w LANTRY LADY - 16/1
    4.50 - 0.5pts e/w EAGLE FANG - 16/1; 0.5pts e/w PALAMON - 16/1. I may also have a small tickle on Balboa at 50s, depending how the day goes
    5.30 - no bet

    Unimaginative treble - 3.30 STATE MAN; 4.10 LOSSIEMOUTH; and 1.30 on Wednesday BALLYBURN, at about 9/4 for the three. Might not bother with the Nemean Lion/Lantry Lady bets as a result.

    Happy Cheltmas everyone!
  • Been a fair bit of rain, might make some races a bit more unpredictable?
  • clb74 said:
    Paddy power given me a £1 bet
    Have a £1 accumulator and go through the card.
  • EW lucky 15
    Mystical Power
    Quilixios
    Trelawne
    Iberico Lord

    Singles:
    NARA EW 4.50
    JPR One win 2.10
    Matata EW 2.10
    Tullyhill Win only 1.30

    For the week i have done a fave one:
    Lossiemouth
    Stateman
    Brighterdaysahead
    Fact to file
    El Fabiolo

    Be lucky, i have friday off to go to pub with a couple friends and have a few bets and drinks :)
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