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I'm guessing that Dutch analyst 'PlanB' has revised his S2F model.
Maybe just a lag of few months?
Bitcoin price prediction model remains ‘amazingly accurate’ with less than 1% error – and forecasts record end to 2021
Anthony Cuthbertson
Thu, 30 September 2021, 4:55 pm·3-min read
Bitcoin hit both the August and September markers on PlanB’s price prediction model (Getty Images/iStockphoto)
The price of bitcoin is less than a few hundred dollars away from a prediction model made more than three months ago.
The forecast was made by the pseudonymous Dutch analyst PlanB, who predicted in June that the cryptocurrency would be $43,000 at the end of September. Bitcoin is trading just above $43,150 at the time of writing.
PlanB has gained a devoted following on social media, gaining more than half a million followers on Twitter in 2021 alone, with one follower recently describing his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model as “amazingly accurate”.
This model posits that bitcoin’s inbuilt scarcity — only 21 million coins will ever exist — combined with its diminishing supply, will see its value continue to increase over the longterm.
S2F divides bitcoin’s supply (stock) with its production (flow) — bitcoin’s annual production halves roughly every four years — to determine when price rallies and peaks can be expected.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time-high of $64,000 in mid April, however according to PlanB’s calculations this was not the peak of the current bull run.
There are various versions of his S2F model, with all of them putting the top of this market cycle well into six figures.
Following bitcoin’s crash between April and July, which saw it briefly fall below $30,000, PlanB posted his “worst case scenario” for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin was below $34,000 at the time the prediction was made, though PlanB claimed it would hit $47,000 by the end of August before dipping to $43,000 at the end of September. Both predictions were off by less than a third of a per cent.
According to his forecast, bitcoin will return to its all-time high of $64,000 by the end of next month, before hitting $98,000 in November. December will see it finally reach above $100,000, according to the analyst, who predicts it will finish 2021 at $135,000 — more than three-times today’s price.
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JEWEL now up 100% from this, at $21 and rising. Decided against getting a hero - find nft's to be too illiquid for my liking. Might wait until theres proper uses for them in game. For now just going to be in the gardens compounding my rewards like a good medieval peasant.kentaddick said:
https://medium.com/@hansthered/defi-kingdoms-is-the-greatest-project-youve-never-heard-of-92fd33334cf9kentaddick said:
I’ve been “playing” defi kingdoms which seems pretty decent looking and sounding - got a pokemon/RuneScape vibe about it. They’ve just started quests, but you have to buy a hero, which are about 50 jewels which is around $400. Once you get a hero you can “summon”’new ones and flip them on the market. Big thing is their liquidity mining is brilliant - you can stake JEWEL and ONE for about 850% apy and can “harvest” your rewards and restake so it compounds at any time. It’s on the harmony network so transactions cost less than a penny. It’s a dex first and then a cool NFT game. Decent little project.cafcpolo said:
Played some decentraland, quite a decent chunk of time. Was shite!kentaddick said:Any nft gamers on here? Been trying my hand at some. DEFI kingdoms is pretty cool - got cool farming dynamics. Splinterlands is kinda cool, also played a bit of decentraland - but feels a bit like a shit second life imitation. Any others people are playing?
Sandbox made me a good chunk of dough though so happy with that!
Lots of crypto influencers getting in on defi kingdoms now. Still very early, the implementation of cross chain gamefi is very interesting.0 -
and so it begins. Vechain announce their new stablecoin, backed 1:1 with a us dollar.
https://www.vechain.org/announcing-veusd-vechainthors-first-stablecoin-enabling-web3-defi-sustainability-objectives-and-more/
Interesting, as i'm invested in fluidfi, which seems to be looking to do the same thing and will be launching this month.
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current plan - thick white trend line is the macro bullish trend, as long as we dont break through that we should be good. Think we're about to go into a decending triangle with a hopeful break upwards in february then rest of 2022 should go parabolic. If we break through the trend line this is bad news and i'd be feeling bearish. Until then, long until wrong.0 -
I feel like we’ve been having a chance to go parabolic for about 8 months now, but it would certainly be nice to see.
One slight positive for me, who very much remains pretty much evens with his portfolio, is that moving all my ZIL into QNT has not been that bad a move - especially as QNT always seems to rally well when we have big dips like this.
Though what that means for long term I don’t know.0 -
I finally found my Binance login details... How straight forward it it to transfer to Coinbase/eToro/Coinjar etc?0
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Quite straight forward, what are you trying to do?PopIcon said:I finally found my Binance login details... How straight forward it it to transfer to Coinbase/eToro/Coinjar etc?0 -
Thanks for the reply. I've got a few hundred quid across a few cryptos on Binance. I remember reading a few months ago that Binance isn't great for UK users, because it doesn't have FCA approval. My mate transferred his cryptos in to Coinbase, but I vaguely remember someone on here mentioning a better option.kentaddick said:
Quite straight forward, what are you trying to do?PopIcon said:I finally found my Binance login details... How straight forward it it to transfer to Coinbase/eToro/Coinjar etc?0 -
Ftx is also good.
ftx.com
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Currently, the word 'bloodbath' springs to mind.0
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Cryptos following the stock market. Need a good end of the week over the weekend, bit concerned if we close any lower.
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Down a good 10% overnight which is less than amusing so 30-35% down since November peak.0
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Feel like this is going to go lower first before any real rise upwards0
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this plan is still in play, but would require more of a reaction in the next few days.kentaddick said:
current plan - thick white trend line is the macro bullish trend, as long as we dont break through that we should be good. Think we're about to go into a decending triangle with a hopeful break upwards in february then rest of 2022 should go parabolic. If we break through the trend line this is bad news and i'd be feeling bearish. Until then, long until wrong.
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With all the shenanigans going on with the fed I can only see the markets going down, and staying down.My portfolio is horrific to look at. However as I’m in for long term, I’m just going to keep DCAing in, and will probably only check the markets on the days I do moving forwards2
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Still plenty of room for more downside from hereRob62 said:
If it was “almost a guaranteed 2x” there would be a lot more buying pressure here. It’s a properly risky time, any real talk of rates rises or tapering would send things crashing much further. No reason we couldn’t dump another 20-30% from here.kentaddick said:
Buying bitcoin now is almost a guaranteed 2x. However, you’re probably going to be so in euphoria about it you won’t sell and you’ll be wishing you’d sold there before prices come near that level in 3-4 years time.shine166 said:
Surely BTC is the no brainer for 100% profitBigRedEvil said:What should I buy on this dip?0 -
Hope not. Down 25% in 36 hours.0
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Is it a bear market?0
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I’m just leaving things alone now. No rush.0
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Isint a bear market technically when prices drop by 20% or more in two consecutive months. Which is what has happened here.cabbles said:Is it a bear market?
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Good time to pick up some Hirst currency and trade for the original piece, if you are into collecting Art.0
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I really don’t know enough. I had an investment in all of this in Apr/May last year when I bought in at $49k and it went down to $28k. I imagine the pain any newcomers are feeling is similar if they bought in in the $60k range.FishCostaFortune said:
Isint a bear market technically when prices drop by 20% or more in two consecutive months. Which is what has happened here.cabbles said:Is it a bear market?
Thank God I swapped my Zil back into btc before I sold up in November. That would’ve lost me a lot of money
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Unfortunately i still have my zil, I average around .06/.07 buy in... so although I'm still down since the high, its not as bad as it could have been !.cabbles said:
I really don’t know enough. I had an investment in all of this in Apr/May last year when I bought in at $49k and it went down to $28k. I imagine the pain any newcomers are feeling is similar if they bought in in the $60k range.FishCostaFortune said:
Isint a bear market technically when prices drop by 20% or more in two consecutive months. Which is what has happened here.cabbles said:Is it a bear market?
Thank God I swapped my Zil back into btc before I sold up in November. That would’ve lost me a lot of money0 -
I hope it goes back up for you. I swapped it to btc just as btc went back up again into the 60s. Zil never matched it to those highsshine166 said:
Unfortunately i still have my zil, I average around .06/.07 buy in... so although I'm still down since the high, its not as bad as it could have been !.cabbles said:
I really don’t know enough. I had an investment in all of this in Apr/May last year when I bought in at $49k and it went down to $28k. I imagine the pain any newcomers are feeling is similar if they bought in in the $60k range.FishCostaFortune said:
Isint a bear market technically when prices drop by 20% or more in two consecutive months. Which is what has happened here.cabbles said:Is it a bear market?
Thank God I swapped my Zil back into btc before I sold up in November. That would’ve lost me a lot of money1 -
Tbh I'm gonna set up a sell order for .12 and look again in the summer. Overall I've done OK, at the high I cashed some in and purchased a hirst print that now goes for 10k, so I'm not down... just my wallet is 1/3 of what it was in the autumn lolcabbles said:
I hope it goes back up for you. I swapped it to btc just as btc went back up again into the 60s. Zil never matched it to those highsshine166 said:
Unfortunately i still have my zil, I average around .06/.07 buy in... so although I'm still down since the high, its not as bad as it could have been !.cabbles said:
I really don’t know enough. I had an investment in all of this in Apr/May last year when I bought in at $49k and it went down to $28k. I imagine the pain any newcomers are feeling is similar if they bought in in the $60k range.FishCostaFortune said:
Isint a bear market technically when prices drop by 20% or more in two consecutive months. Which is what has happened here.cabbles said:Is it a bear market?
Thank God I swapped my Zil back into btc before I sold up in November. That would’ve lost me a lot of money1 -
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Just want to reiterate, you can buy Hirsts 'The currency' for around 9 grand atm. You have until July to swap it for the physical Art... which currently sells for 15k0
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Seems too good to be true. How do you go about buying and selling them and how do you authenticate an NFT prior to purchase?shine166 said:Just want to reiterate, you can buy Hirsts 'The currency' for around 9 grand atm. You have until July to swap it for the physical Art... which currently sells for 15k1 -
SantaClaus said:
Seems too good to be true. How do you go about buying and selling them and how do you authenticate an NFT prior to purchase?shine166 said:Just want to reiterate, you can buy Hirsts 'The currency' for around 9 grand atm. You have until July to swap it for the physical Art... which currently sells for 15k
Go to 'Heni' on Instagram, follow the discord etc. The nft is just over 5eth + atm, so actually more like $11000.0
