Cheltenham festival 2024

Addick Addict said:

The Skeltons have pulled a bit of a stroke there!!!

Wins Coral Cup last year off 141. Followed by 6/7 (147), PU (147), 9/11 (145), 14/19 (143) and becomes the first to win the Coral Cup back to back (141) 

Followed by another one in the shape of Unexpected Party:

5/6 (146)
4/4 (144)
9/12 (141)
Wins the ultra competitive 16 runner Grand Annual (138) 

Willie Mullins wins the Cheltenham bumper yet again with son, Patrick, on board for what is Mullins' 100th winner at Cheltenham. 

Mullins and Elliott between them take the first six places in the race. That's next year's novice hurdle races sorted!

Backed Capt Guinness and then used some of the winning on sounds victorious e/w in the last. Happy out.

Average day today...I was down but got back to even for the day with the last 2 races and using a free bet on Skybet. Ended the day as I started it! Let's hope for better tomorrow!

Addickted2U said:

Addick Addict said:

Addick Addict said:

The Skeltons have pulled a bit of a stroke there!!!

Wins Coral Cup last year off 141. Followed by 6/7 (147), PU (147), 9/11 (145), 14/19 (143) and becomes the first to win the Coral Cup back to back (141) 

Followed by another one in the shape of Unexpected Party:

5/6 (146)
4/4 (144)
9/12 (141)
Wins the ultra competitive 16 runner Grand Annual (138) 

Might be worth siding with Protektorat tomorrow then. 

More likely, I would think from the fact it is in a handicap and the market itself, Le Milos in the Pertemps. A couple of average runs over hurdles, he's dropped 10lbs below his chase mark. Was matched originally at 20 (for pennies) on Betfair all the way down and is now trading as favourite at 7.60.  

Always back skybet at sp , you will be better off, they are doing losing bets back as cash in the triumph, with Sir Gino now 5/2 , had to have £20 at that price.

But again take SP, today they were offering 17/2 on Maskada before the off, it went off at 10-1

northstandsteve said:

Always back skybet at sp , you will be better off, they are doing losing bets back as cash in the triumph, with Sir Gino now 5/2 , had to have £20 at that price.

I don't know if they offer different cash back amounts to different people but when I look at it, it shows maximum refund of £5.

Holdkneebomb said:

Any thoughts on skybet from the more experienced punters out there? Throughout the week so far sky have offered consistently skinnier odds than other bookies. For example tomorrow out of 113 runners there is only a single horse Teahupoo where they offer or match the best price available, if you fancy any of the other 112 you could and should shop elsewhere. I understand in the big handicaps they sometimes offer more places each way but that doesn’t explain the skinny odds in all other races. I guess their model relies on bigger profit margins on lower turnover than the other big name bookies but I would have thought eventually punters will move away or at least reduce their stakes

Those extra places come at a massive overall cost if you plan to back winners. And if you plan to back horses to be placed then you are still going to much worse off in the long run. There is no Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) for those extra place races with Skybet which is, of course, a massive plus for them too. 

If we take the Pertemps, for example - every single horse can be backed at a bigger price elsewhere and in places where a bookie is offering "first 6" as opposed to Skybet's "first 8". Let's take Cuthbert Dibble and assume a stake of £10 EW:

Skybet - wins (5/1) and the total return would be £80 so a profit of £60. If it finishes 2nd-8th then that would be £20 so a profit of £0
Bet365 - wins (8/1) and the total return would be £116 so a profit of £96. If it finishes 2nd-6th then that would be £26 so a profit of £6

So Bet365 returns £36 (if it wins) and £6 ( if it finishes 2-6) more respectively and that's without the fact that they offer BOG (unless you happen to be restricted by Bet 365 of course). Those are massive differences in terms of percentage returns. So punters are accepting those ridiculously cramped prices on the basis that their horse might finish 7th or 8th - put another way, what price do people think the horse would be to finish in either 7th or 8th? Pretty damn large.

Which is why I'm going to answer your question by saying Skybet get away with it because of great marketing, punter ignorance and inertia. I don't mean that in a derogatory way. I mean that most, purely social punters are drawn in first by the publicity of "extra places" so might open an account for the Grand National or Cheltenham initially with Skybet especially if they see that they are offering an incentive to open an account. Those punters aren't price or return sensitive and the "inertia" bit is the fact that they are equally loathe to open an account elsewhere especially given the hoops that one does, potentially, have to go through to do so now. Skybet have them potentially as a customer for life and if they  happen to then get drawn to cartoon racing or slots then so much the better for them!     



 

Addick Addict said:

Holdkneebomb said:

Any thoughts on skybet from the more experienced punters out there? Throughout the week so far sky have offered consistently skinnier odds than other bookies. For example tomorrow out of 113 runners there is only a single horse Teahupoo where they offer or match the best price available, if you fancy any of the other 112 you could and should shop elsewhere. I understand in the big handicaps they sometimes offer more places each way but that doesn’t explain the skinny odds in all other races. I guess their model relies on bigger profit margins on lower turnover than the other big name bookies but I would have thought eventually punters will move away or at least reduce their stakes

Those extra places come at a massive overall cost if you plan to back winners. And if you plan to back horses to be placed then you are still going to much worse off in the long run. There is no Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) for those extra place races with Skybet which is, of course, a massive plus for them too. 

If we take the Pertemps, for example - every single horse can be backed at a bigger price elsewhere and in places where a bookie is offering "first 6" as opposed to Skybet's "first 8". Let's take Cuthbert Dibble and assume a stake of £10 EW:

Skybet - wins (5/1) and the total return would be £80 so a profit of £60. If it finishes 2nd-8th then that would be £20 so a profit of £0
Bet365 - wins (8/1) and the total return would be £116 so a profit of £96. If it finishes 2nd-6th then that would be £26 so a profit of £6

So Bet365 returns £36 (if it wins) and £6 ( if it finishes 2-6) more respectively and that's without the fact that they offer BOG (unless you happen to be restricted by Bet 365 of course). Those are massive differences in terms of percentage returns. So punters are accepting those ridiculously cramped prices on the basis that their horse might finish 7th or 8th - put another way, what price do people think the horse would be to finish in either 7th or 8th? Pretty damn large.

Which is why I'm going to answer your question by saying Skybet get away with it because of great marketing, punter ignorance and inertia. I don't mean that in a derogatory way. I mean that most, purely social punters are drawn in first by the publicity of "extra places" so might open an account for the Grand National or Cheltenham initially with Skybet especially if they see that they are offering an incentive to open an account. Those punters aren't price or return sensitive and the "inertia" bit is the fact that they are equally loathe to open an account elsewhere especially given the hoops that one does, potentially, have to go through to do so now. Skybet have them potentially as a customer for life and if they  happen to then get drawn to cartoon racing or slots then so much the better for them!     



 

Will back Stage Star today as I have a share with owners group, but not confident after Stay Away Fay scoped dirty after yesterdays race for Nicholls

northstandsteve said:

Addick Addict said:

Holdkneebomb said:

Any thoughts on skybet from the more experienced punters out there? Throughout the week so far sky have offered consistently skinnier odds than other bookies. For example tomorrow out of 113 runners there is only a single horse Teahupoo where they offer or match the best price available, if you fancy any of the other 112 you could and should shop elsewhere. I understand in the big handicaps they sometimes offer more places each way but that doesn’t explain the skinny odds in all other races. I guess their model relies on bigger profit margins on lower turnover than the other big name bookies but I would have thought eventually punters will move away or at least reduce their stakes

Those extra places come at a massive overall cost if you plan to back winners. And if you plan to back horses to be placed then you are still going to much worse off in the long run. There is no Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) for those extra place races with Skybet which is, of course, a massive plus for them too. 

If we take the Pertemps, for example - every single horse can be backed at a bigger price elsewhere and in places where a bookie is offering "first 6" as opposed to Skybet's "first 8". Let's take Cuthbert Dibble and assume a stake of £10 EW:

Skybet - wins (5/1) and the total return would be £80 so a profit of £60. If it finishes 2nd-8th then that would be £20 so a profit of £0
Bet365 - wins (8/1) and the total return would be £116 so a profit of £96. If it finishes 2nd-6th then that would be £26 so a profit of £6

So Bet365 returns £36 (if it wins) and £6 ( if it finishes 2-6) more respectively and that's without the fact that they offer BOG (unless you happen to be restricted by Bet 365 of course). Those are massive differences in terms of percentage returns. So punters are accepting those ridiculously cramped prices on the basis that their horse might finish 7th or 8th - put another way, what price do people think the horse would be to finish in either 7th or 8th? Pretty damn large.

Which is why I'm going to answer your question by saying Skybet get away with it because of great marketing, punter ignorance and inertia. I don't mean that in a derogatory way. I mean that most, purely social punters are drawn in first by the publicity of "extra places" so might open an account for the Grand National or Cheltenham initially with Skybet especially if they see that they are offering an incentive to open an account. Those punters aren't price or return sensitive and the "inertia" bit is the fact that they are equally loathe to open an account elsewhere especially given the hoops that one does, potentially, have to go through to do so now. Skybet have them potentially as a customer for life and if they  happen to then get drawn to cartoon racing or slots then so much the better for them!     



 

But what I am saying is before the off if it is bigger sp, take the sp and still get the extra places. There are not a lot of horses this week that have gone off shorter prices than they were the night before.

Effectively, you are gambling that the Industry SP (ISP) is going to be bigger than, more often than not, the best prices available with other bookmakers the night before - all to get one or two more places with Skybet? I totally get what you are saying if you only have an account with Skybet because the chances are that ISP may well be bigger. But, as I say, you are risking value and profit all for the sake of your horse happening to finish in that one or two extra place available with Skybet and if you wait 'til the morning to place your bet with say Bet365 you get BOG anyway so are guaranteed never to be worse off on price compared to Skybet. People will only remember the time their horse happened to finish 7th but will forget about the thousands that of times that it didn't happen. And won't have calculated how much they lost out on for the times that it did win or finish higher than 7th.  

Singles
Grey Dawning win 13:30
Conflated win 14:50

Treble:
Le Milos 14:10
Teahupoo 15:30
Brighterdaysahead 16:50

Lucky 15 ew
Iroko 13:30
Cletus Poolaw 14:10
Stage Star 14:50
Artic Bresil 16:10

Mixed bag yesterday did ok, but could have been a lot better if Fab had come in £170 for a 5fold

Be lucky

1.30 - 1pt win GINNY’S DESTINY - 5/1; 0.5pts e/w SHARJAH - 25/1 

2.10 - 1pt win CUTHBERT DIBBLE - 9/2; 0.5pts e/w EMITOM - 22/1 (I’ve taken the silly 8pl though with Sky at 20s); 0.75pts e/w POPOVA - 9/1

2.50 - 1pt win STAGE STAR - 5/1; 0.5pts e/w AHOY SENOR - 16/1 

3.30 - already have Flooring Porter e/w at 50s (back from when the shout was the NHC and before people clocked on to the switch back), so will add 0.5pts e/w PAISLEY PARK - 12/1. Hopefully this throws up a good race basically.

4.10 - 1pt e/w ARCTIC BRESIL - 13/2; 0.5pts e/w RIAAN - 18/1 or 20/1 (taken 18s with Sky for extra place)

4.50 - 2pts win JADE DE GRUGY - 15/8. Each way, which for once I’m not doing, would be Majestic Force, at the prices.

5.30 - 0.75pts e/w WHACKER CLAN - 9/1, 0.5pts e/w DOM OF MARY - 14/1; 0.5pts e/w CEPAGE - 66/1 w/365; 0.5pts e/w CLOUDY GLEN - 20/1