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The mathematics of relegation
Comments
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cafcfan said:
Hold on. if first wins all 46 games, the most second can win is 44 because they've lost two to first. And third will have lost two games to both first and second so can only win a maximum of 42. etc, etc.bobmunro said:bobmunro said:Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!Lord Romford is correct at 76 - 25 wins and a draw! (I mistakenly had it at 26 wins but the most 22nd could get is 25 wins).The extreme is 1st win all 46 games, 2nd win 45, 3rd 44 and so on which means 22nd win 25 games.
Don't you dare contaminate my imagination with facts!4 -
Exactly how I feel. COYRSNorthheathAddick said:I’m another who just can’t believe that people would be happy to lose to Ipswich,do our job just get it done draw or beat them,stay up was our remit…n it’s withing touching distance,I’m one of the ones that couldn’t give a toss what the Scum do…if they do go up,so what we are light years behind them,we never beat them anyways,so straight away we maybe 6 points better off next season…think of our destiny,let them worry about theirs.
Cmon U Addicks ❤️🤍1 -
I hate what I see coming though. It’s just so Charlton.sam3110 said:Oxford are losing to Millwall so we are already safe.
We now need Ipswich to win at least 3 of their games, so if we lose tonight, so be it tbh.
Anyone still believing Oxford will leapfrog us is mental, IMO
If we lose to Ipswich and Hull, and go behind early against Swansea… we can almost guarantee Oxford will take the lead at Millwall to drop us into the bottom three. We’ll be wanting a Millwall equaliser in the last 20 minutes of the game that saves us and promotes them.
Just don’t let it go to the last day lads.3 -
If we lose to Ipswich, they can lose to Southampton but will still get past Millwall whatever happens if they win their other two, is one small consolationCallumcafc said:
I hate what I see coming though. It’s just so Charlton.sam3110 said:Oxford are losing to Millwall so we are already safe.
We now need Ipswich to win at least 3 of their games, so if we lose tonight, so be it tbh.
Anyone still believing Oxford will leapfrog us is mental, IMO
If we lose to Ipswich and Hull, and go behind early against Swansea… we can almost guarantee Oxford will take the lead at Millwall to drop us into the bottom three. We’ll be wanting a Millwall equaliser in the last 20 minutes of the game that saves us and promotes them.
Just don’t let it go to the last day lads.0 -
NJ: Look, I want you to be the best version of yourselves against Hull, but you can be the worst version of yourselves tonight, as that will screw Millwall.2
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valleynick66 said:
Whilst I see your point that ignores the psychological impact of starting to play knowing you have an obstacle to overcome.bobmunro said:valleynick66 said:
Of course. My query was whether the authorities would / could impose it after it has zero impact. It’s then of no value beyond the modest financial implication of a position or two in the table.Henry Irving said:
West Brom wanted it next season, not this.valleynick66 said:
A points deduction after your fate is known is no competitive penalty.Henry Irving said:What about West Brom's 6 point deduction?Are we sure it can’t apply next season?
They may be changing their minds on that.As I said earlier in the thread (or another thread!) - the deduction should only be based on the breach, not the consequences. If WBA's breach deserves 2 points then whether or not that adds an additional penalty of relegation should be neither here nor there.When Leicester got their six points there was no way of knowing whether or not it would mean relegation, even though in reality it probably has.In that sense they are not punished if applied this season.Would be solved by all penalties being only applied at season start.Regardless do we know if it can be deferred to next season under the regulations?The EFL regulations state clearly any penalty should be applied in the season following when the breach of regulations occurred. So in WBA's case the breach relates to season 2024/25, hence the punishment should be applied to this current 2025/26 season.Breaches relating to a particular season are not always identified before the next season starts so for your point to apply (I don't disagree with it btw) the EFL regulations would need to change - and be applied consistently.
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Remember Barnsley in stoppage timeCallumcafc said:
I hate what I see coming though. It’s just so Charlton.sam3110 said:Oxford are losing to Millwall so we are already safe.
We now need Ipswich to win at least 3 of their games, so if we lose tonight, so be it tbh.
Anyone still believing Oxford will leapfrog us is mental, IMO
If we lose to Ipswich and Hull, and go behind early against Swansea… we can almost guarantee Oxford will take the lead at Millwall to drop us into the bottom three. We’ll be wanting a Millwall equaliser in the last 20 minutes of the game that saves us and promotes them.
Just don’t let it go to the last day lads.2 -
This is now getting dicey1
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Some relegations are lame, some relegations are inevitable
Some relegations, however, are masterpieces1 -
Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.1 -
Sponsored links:
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To paraphrase Louis Mendez on Charlton Live last week.......
we gatecrashed a party that we weren't invited to and have seen off all but 1 of the other party guests. We have out stayed our welcome but have no intention of leaving until all the beers have been drunk and all that is left is the Egg Nogg.6 -
If we lose to Hull are we gonna do lap of honour after the game?3
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Only if Wendies do us a favour vs Oxford.SheedyCAFC said:If we lose to Hull are we gonna do lap of honour after the game?1 -
I bloody love egg nogg.2
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Our game ends before they kick offDanepak said:
Only if Wendies do us a favour vs Oxford.SheedyCAFC said:If we lose to Hull are we gonna do lap of honour after the game?1 -
With the first team doing their best to go down from a position of seeming safety and the women doing their best to blow a nailed-on promotion, this may possibly be the most Charlton season there's ever been.14
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They'll have to just walk around the centre circle. They struggle with their movement where the boxes are.SheedyCAFC said:If we lose to Hull are we gonna do lap of honour after the game?2 -
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.0 -
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.0 -
If we lose the two games, and Oxford win their two games, Oxford's goal difference will be at least 2 goals superior to ours and we would be relegated.DRAddick said:
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.6 -
Sponsored links:
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Nothing factual about that statement, as there are 4 results still to impact the goal difference?DRAddick said:
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even then goals conceded which currently is also 2 in our favour but likely to be wiped out if it gets to that scenario.PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.0 -
It's currently two in our favour which means if we lose both games by a solitary goal our GD would be the same as theirs. But if Oxford win both theirs by a solitary goal then their GD is better. GD will mean its us who go down. The GD would have to be a minimum of 4 goals in our favour currently for it to come into play.DRAddick said:
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.1 -
Ignore me, I'm an idiot (mathematically)9goalswentpastperry said:
It's currently two in our favour which means if we lose both games by a solitary goal our GD would be the same as theirs. But if Oxford win both theirs by a solitary goal then their GD is better. GD will mean its us who go down. The GD would have to be a minimum of 4 goals in our favour currently for it to come into play.DRAddick said:
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.2 -
Well I couldn't ignore you, mate, as I wouldn't want you dancing with delight thinking we'd stayed up when we'd gone down!DRAddick said:
Ignore me, I'm an idiot (mathematically)9goalswentpastperry said:
It's currently two in our favour which means if we lose both games by a solitary goal our GD would be the same as theirs. But if Oxford win both theirs by a solitary goal then their GD is better. GD will mean its us who go down. The GD would have to be a minimum of 4 goals in our favour currently for it to come into play.DRAddick said:
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.2 -
Oxford will have us on GD in any scenario. Only way goal difference can come into it is if West Brom get a 2 point deduction and take a couple of hefty defeats in their last 2 (unlikely in any case as they'd need to lose by at least 5 goals more than us over the 2 games, and they play Sheff Wed last).0
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That's not correct, or only partially correct. If Oxford win their 2 remaining goals, their goal difference with improve by 2 and ours will worsen by 2, so their's will be better - unfortunatelyDRAddick said:
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.0 -
You’re right. We have an early kickoff. My bad.SheedyCAFC said:
Our game ends before they kick offDanepak said:
Only if Wendies do us a favour vs Oxford.SheedyCAFC said:If we lose to Hull are we gonna do lap of honour after the game?0 -
I bet the EFL.are fuming atm. I bet they thought this would be all done & dusted by now and they could give WBA a 2 or even a 3 point deduction without it affecting anything.
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That’ll change on Saturday, it’s the Charlton way.Ormiston_Addick said:To stay up Oxford need to win at Millwall on the final day, in a game Millwall will need to win to either go up or finish 3rd and get the best Play Off spot.
Given Oxford have the second worst away record in the league, that seems rather unlikely, although not impossible, obviously.
Our best shot at another win is probably against Hull who were average against Leicester and haven't won in five games.1 -
With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.2
