The mathematics of relegation

DRAddick said:

9goalswentpastperry said:

DRAddick said:

PrincessFiona said:

Dave Rudd said:

Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now.  R remains at 1.

Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for.  It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.

In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today.  Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.

it could come down to goal difference?

Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....

It's currently two in our favour which means if we lose both games by a solitary goal our GD would be the same as theirs. But if Oxford win both theirs by a solitary goal then their GD is better. GD will mean its us who go down. The GD would have to be a minimum of 4 goals in our favour currently for it to come into play.

Ignore me, I'm an idiot (mathematically)

thetomahawkkid said:

golfaddick said:

With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.

There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.

CAFC v Hull

We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony 

Oxford v Sheff Wed

Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.

If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply. 

Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.

So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).

In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.

Not all outcomes are equal (win, draw, lose) so your logic is flawed I am afraid.

Siv_in_Norfolk said:

bobmunro said:

thetomahawkkid said:

golfaddick said:

With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.

There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.

CAFC v Hull

We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony 

Oxford v Sheff Wed

Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.

If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply. 

Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.

So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).

In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.

Not all outcomes are equal (win, draw, lose) so your logic is flawed I am afraid.

Spot on.

Only Bet Victor are betting on it now (two horse race and not competitive)

1/12 Oxford

6/1 Charlton

About right

If we lose against Hull and Oxford beat the Massives then it's a different kettle of fish. Something like

Oxford 1/3

Charlton 5/2

But that would shift quite a bit if Ipswich win their next two games resulting in Millwall resting most of their first choice 11.

BetVictor were offering 66/1 before the games yesterday 

For it to have come in from 66/1 to 6/1 on the basis that we lost to Ipswich (strong favourites) and Blackburn won away at Sheff Utd suggests to me that the 66s was too generous. Any thoughts to share?

Dave Rudd said:

golfaddick said:

With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.

There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.

CAFC v Hull

We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony 

Oxford v Sheff Wed

Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.

If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply. 

Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.

So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).

In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.

Well, you miss a few subtle points.

Yes, each game has three possible outcomes, but all are not equally likely.

Of the two upcoming fixtures, Oddschecker has Hull City as marginal favourites in our game (typically they are 8/5 against our 15/8), while Oxford are comfortable odds-on favourites (46/100) to beat Wednesday.

AI probability shows Hull City at 42%, us at 31% and the draw at 26%.

Oxford are at 63%, Wednesday at 14% and the draw is 23%.

Clearly the odds for next weekend remain ... well, unclear.


Relegation odds are currently 1/12 for Oxford while we are 6/1.  However, only BetVictor is quoting these odds, presumably because of the uncertainty around West Brom.  Note that I got 66/1 yesterday afternoon for our relegation.  The defeat against Ipswich was hardly surprising, but I think those odds reflected the fact that we need a single point.  Obviously the Blackburn win at Sheff Utd didn't help, but that's a huge drop (66/1 to 6/1) based on one or two games.

Don't forget, too, that all these odds are not necessarily guides to what will happen ... they simply reflect what punters are betting on.  My £20 yesterday didn't help in that respect.