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The mathematics of relegation
Comments
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DRAddick said:
Ignore me, I'm an idiot (mathematically)9goalswentpastperry said:
It's currently two in our favour which means if we lose both games by a solitary goal our GD would be the same as theirs. But if Oxford win both theirs by a solitary goal then their GD is better. GD will mean its us who go down. The GD would have to be a minimum of 4 goals in our favour currently for it to come into play.DRAddick said:
Goal difference is currently 2 in our favour. If we lose both games and Oxford win both, then at best GD will be even. That means it's down to who scored the most goals. And seeing as we can't score many that doesn't bode well. If that's even it then goes on head to head results....PrincessFiona said:
it could come down to goal difference?Dave Rudd said:Just back home and the picture is a whole lot clearer now. R remains at 1.
Blackburn enjoy the sweet relief that we still wait for. It's between us and Oxford now and Goal Difference plays no part.
In an act of extreme devotion to my team, I sacrificed £20 earlier today. Odds of 66/1 were too good to refuse so I invested in that insurance policy ... which I will take great delight in shredding at the appropriate moment.
Look we all make mistakes it's just I wish you weren't the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel !0 -
Yeah thats not how probabilities work. Thats like saying when you play the lottery you either win or dont win so its a 50-50 chance.golfaddick said:With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.2 -
Not all outcomes are equal (win, draw, lose) so your logic is flawed I am afraid.golfaddick said:With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.2 -
"What do Charlton fans dream of when they take a little Charlton snooze?
Do they dream of beating Hull City, or Swansea when there’s nothing else to lose.
Dont you worry your pretty Charlton brain, Oxford gonna lose to Wednesday, their hopes will vanish down the drain.
And then we’re gonna laugh as Scum throw it all away, get ready for next season, Spurs away, Ole Ole!
FUUUUUCK-FUUUUUCK-FUCK-FUCK-FUCK-FUCKY-FUCKY-FUCK…..cos if we’re relying on a favour from the Spanners?
Well then we’re shit out of luck".
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thetomahawkkid said:
Not all outcomes are equal (win, draw, lose) so your logic is flawed I am afraid.golfaddick said:With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.Spot on.Only Bet Victor are betting on it now (two horse race and not competitive)1/12 Oxford6/1 CharltonAbout rightIf we lose against Hull and Oxford beat the Massives then it's a different kettle of fish. Something likeOxford 1/3Charlton 5/2But that would shift quite a bit if Ipswich win their next two games resulting in Millwall resting most of their first choice 11.1 -
BetVictor were offering 66/1 before the games yesterdaybobmunro said:thetomahawkkid said:
Not all outcomes are equal (win, draw, lose) so your logic is flawed I am afraid.golfaddick said:With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.Spot on.Only Bet Victor are betting on it now (two horse race and not competitive)1/12 Oxford6/1 CharltonAbout rightIf we lose against Hull and Oxford beat the Massives then it's a different kettle of fish. Something likeOxford 1/3Charlton 5/2But that would shift quite a bit if Ipswich win their next two games resulting in Millwall resting most of their first choice 11.
For it to have come in from 66/1 to 6/1 on the basis that we lost to Ipswich (strong favourites) and Blackburn won away at Sheff Utd suggests to me that the 66s was too generous. Any thoughts to share?0 -
Siv_in_Norfolk said:
BetVictor were offering 66/1 before the games yesterdaybobmunro said:thetomahawkkid said:
Not all outcomes are equal (win, draw, lose) so your logic is flawed I am afraid.golfaddick said:With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.Spot on.Only Bet Victor are betting on it now (two horse race and not competitive)1/12 Oxford6/1 CharltonAbout rightIf we lose against Hull and Oxford beat the Massives then it's a different kettle of fish. Something likeOxford 1/3Charlton 5/2But that would shift quite a bit if Ipswich win their next two games resulting in Millwall resting most of their first choice 11.
For it to have come in from 66/1 to 6/1 on the basis that we lost to Ipswich (strong favourites) and Blackburn won away at Sheff Utd suggests to me that the 66s was too generous. Any thoughts to share?It my have been slightly generous but not a million miles away, and 6/1 is on the skinny side but clearly VC don't really want any business on it.Our chances of getting the point needed have reduced from three chances to two (in pure number of games terms), and the Ipswich win increases their chances of getting second before the last game meaning Millwall could be there for the taking by Oxford. All related contingencies that affect the odds but I doubt the odds compiler at VC spent too long on it!1 -
Well, you miss a few subtle points.golfaddick said:With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.
Yes, each game has three possible outcomes, but all are not equally likely.
Of the two upcoming fixtures, Oddschecker has Hull City as marginal favourites in our game (typically they are 8/5 against our 15/8), while Oxford are comfortable odds-on favourites (46/100) to beat Wednesday.
AI probability shows Hull City at 42%, us at 31% and the draw at 26%.
Oxford are at 63%, Wednesday at 14% and the draw is 23%.
Clearly the odds for next weekend remain ... well, unclear.
Relegation odds are currently 1/12 for Oxford while we are 6/1. However, only BetVictor is quoting these odds, presumably because of the uncertainty around West Brom. Note that I got 66/1 yesterday afternoon for our relegation. The defeat against Ipswich was hardly surprising, but I think those odds reflected the fact that we need a single point. Obviously the Blackburn win at Sheff Utd didn't help, but that's a huge drop (66/1 to 6/1) based on one or two games.
Don't forget, too, that all these odds are not necessarily guides to what will happen ... they simply reflect what punters are betting on. My £20 yesterday didn't help in that respect.1 -
Dave Rudd said:
Well, you miss a few subtle points.golfaddick said:With Regard to the title of this thread I was mulling earlier about the probability of us going down.
There are 4 matches that could decide our fate. In those 4 matches there are 3 outcomes that decide the result.
CAFC v Hull
We could either win, draw or lose. Only a defeat continues the agony. So a 1 in 3 chance, or to put it in positive context, a 2 out of 3 chance of not prolonging the agony
Oxford v Sheff Wed
Oxford need to win to stay up. So a 1 in 3 chance. Or again, a 2 in 3 chance that they fail.
If those probabilities work against us then we move onto the final matches where the same odds apply.
Just to say that I'm terrible with probability and have no clue, mathematics wise, what the odds would be for all that to happen and we finish 3rd bottom.
So in all probability we should stay up.......but football doesn't work on mathematics. You have to take into account the teams playing (Sheff Wed only winning once this season & Millwall being a top 3 side) - and us not being able to get a result at home but can scrape a draw away).
In all likelihood we will stay up as I just can't see all 4 outcomes going against us. But I'm not a betting man and I would not even stake tuppence on us staying up this season.
Yes, each game has three possible outcomes, but all are not equally likely.
Of the two upcoming fixtures, Oddschecker has Hull City as marginal favourites in our game (typically they are 8/5 against our 15/8), while Oxford are comfortable odds-on favourites (46/100) to beat Wednesday.
AI probability shows Hull City at 42%, us at 31% and the draw at 26%.
Oxford are at 63%, Wednesday at 14% and the draw is 23%.
Clearly the odds for next weekend remain ... well, unclear.
Relegation odds are currently 1/12 for Oxford while we are 6/1. However, only BetVictor is quoting these odds, presumably because of the uncertainty around West Brom. Note that I got 66/1 yesterday afternoon for our relegation. The defeat against Ipswich was hardly surprising, but I think those odds reflected the fact that we need a single point. Obviously the Blackburn win at Sheff Utd didn't help, but that's a huge drop (66/1 to 6/1) based on one or two games.
Don't forget, too, that all these odds are not necessarily guides to what will happen ... they simply reflect what punters are betting on. My £20 yesterday didn't help in that respect.
To a small degree, the odds compiler (more algorithm these days) will be the main driver. Obviously sports outcomes are not absolute probabilities like the toss of a coin or the roll of a dice (assuming both are equally weighted!). If you were betting on the outcome of the throw of the dice, for example, probabily of each number is 1 in 6 or in odds terms 5/1. Build in some profit and offer 9/2 for each of the outcomes. The bookmaker (one worth their salt) wouldn't change prices at all based on volume of money.1 -
Just need Lloyd Jones to down tools and refuse to play the last 2 gamesSwindon_Addick said:With the first team doing their best to go down from a position of seeming safety and the women doing their best to blow a nailed-on promotion, this may possibly be the most Charlton season there's ever been.0 -
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We've only won one game since this thread was ressurected, not one to be superstitious........
I'm just desperate at this stage, I can't believe we are in this situation.....1 -
R = -2
!!!15 -
Kill the thread!!!!
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Next season would be good see this run from the first game of the season, along side a P for play offs!2
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It comes to our attention that many of you have been a little euphoric since the final whistle at The Valley.
Well, this high-spirited stuff is all well and good, but don't forget the age-old mantra ... WIOTMORT (when it's on the Mathematics of Relegation Thread).
Don't rely on fake news media like the BBC, Sky, CNN etc. Take a deep breath and hear it from the reliable news source that you trust.
My team of Oxford professors, plus Rachel Riley and my Alan Turing and Stephen Hawking simulators have checked the numbers, tested the algorithm and divided by the number they first thought of ... and have decreed that ...
... the R number has not only reached zero, it has gone through and come out the other side.
We are safe, Ladies and Gentlemen. The Ghost of Relegation slinks off into the darkness ... and, once we win at Swansea next weekend, we'll all wonder what the fuss was about.
I thank those of you who have provided support and good wishes on what has been a fretful journey. For me, though, this is what sport is all about. The underlying anguish, the hope, the expectation. If you can't feel that for your team ... well, something is wrong.
The thread goes into hibernation for eight months, at least.
Those of you asking that we run it from Day 1 next season, and broaden it to cover Promotion and/or the Play-Offs are asking a bit too much, I'm afraid. Targets to avoid relegation can be calculated (and hence the R number can be generated, although tracking it from Day 1 is not trivial), whereas things are much more open-ended at the top of the table, so those targets are vague.
However, I will endeavour to keep things a bit 'mathy' when the opportunity arises. After all, I don't want Rachel getting cold.
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So stattos, what and when did we earn the final, tipping point to keep us up?
Middlesbrough?0 -
Watford Away0
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Oxford away with the late penalty.Henry Irving said:So stattos, what and when did we earn the point to keep us up?
Middlesbrough?
Had we lost that game Oxford would have been 3 points closer to us and we wouldn’t have survived until after beating Hull.0 -
All points contributed equally to keeping us up, none exclusively so. You could, in theory, discount all points gained after the Hull match, as after that we didn't need any more points - except that we didn't get any anyway. You, could also retrospectively count backwards to the time where our points total outstrips the final points table of the last relegated team, but that seems a bit silly to me as we weren't actually safe at that point and things may have turned out differently.0
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Every point is of equal value, whether it was secured in the first game or the last. It's like asking what piece of the jigsaw is the most important, every piece (or point) is of no value in the absence of all the other pieces (points)1
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Very philosphical but this is a maths threadKiwiValley said:Every point is of equal value, whether it was secured in the first game or the last. It's like asking what piece of the jigsaw is the most important, every piece (or point) is of no value in the absence of all the other pieces (points)2 -
The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.4
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Thank yousuperclive98 said:The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.1 -
Nice for us to keep the season more exciting for the final 8 games of the yearsuperclive98 said:The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.1 -
While this could be argued to be correct, it misses the point that, even if you subscribe to the Single Universe Theory, most (maybe all) actions are not completely independent.superclive98 said:The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.
That is, the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of a single action almost certainly influences other, seemingly unrelated occurrences. As far back as 1800 in The Vocation of Man, Johann Gottleib Fichte noted that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole."
Later, Alan Turing used a more dramatic example ... "The displacement of a single electron by a billionth of a centimetre at one moment might make the difference between a man being killed by an avalanche a year later, or escaping."
Some might dismiss this as mere speculation, but quantum entanglement has already been demonstrated in practice.
When Kelman prepared for that penalty at Oxford, I saw the ghost of Ronnie Schwartz lining up for a similar kick at the same end in 2021. Maybe Ronnie's failure was the grain of sand that kept us up this time.
You don't get this stuff on other fans' websites, do you?9 -
I'm sure The Lion Roars has their own version of Dave Rudd!Dave Rudd said:
While this could be argued to be correct, it misses the point that, even if you subscribe to the Single Universe Theory, most (maybe all) actions are not completely independent.superclive98 said:The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.
That is, the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of a single action almost certainly influences other, seemingly unrelated occurrences. As far back as 1800 in The Vocation of Man, Johann Gottleib Fichte noted that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole."
Later, Alan Turing used a more dramatic example ... "The displacement of a single electron by a billionth of a centimetre at one moment might make the difference between a man being killed by an avalanche a year later, or escaping."
Some might dismiss this as mere speculation, but quantum entanglement has already been demonstrated in practice.
When Kelman prepared for that penalty at Oxford, I saw the ghost of Ronnie Schwartz lining up for a similar kick at the same end in 2021. Maybe Ronnie's failure was the grain of sand that kept us up this time.
You don't get this stuff on other fans' websites, do you?2 -
@Henry Irving philosophy and quantum science are indivisible from the football condition. You can't handle it I suppose, that's why you lie stupefied in your dimly lit Charlton museum sucking on the fumes of Charlton heritageDave Rudd said:
While this could be argued to be correct, it misses the point that, even if you subscribe to the Single Universe Theory, most (maybe all) actions are not completely independent.superclive98 said:The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.
That is, the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of a single action almost certainly influences other, seemingly unrelated occurrences. As far back as 1800 in The Vocation of Man, Johann Gottleib Fichte noted that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole."
Later, Alan Turing used a more dramatic example ... "The displacement of a single electron by a billionth of a centimetre at one moment might make the difference between a man being killed by an avalanche a year later, or escaping."
Some might dismiss this as mere speculation, but quantum entanglement has already been demonstrated in practice.
When Kelman prepared for that penalty at Oxford, I saw the ghost of Ronnie Schwartz lining up for a similar kick at the same end in 2021. Maybe Ronnie's failure was the grain of sand that kept us up this time.
You don't get this stuff on other fans' websites, do you?
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What pleases me the most is that the points that were taken off other sides might have exacerbated their poor form, but those docked points alone were not responsible for us staying up.
West Brom would have finished above us but Wednesday and Leicester wouldn't have.1 -
I love sucking on the fumes of Charlton heritage. Suck away Henry.KiwiValley said:
@Henry Irving philosophy and quantum science are indivisible from the football condition. You can't handle it I suppose, that's why you lie stupefied in your dimly lit Charlton museum sucking on the fumes of Charlton heritageDave Rudd said:
While this could be argued to be correct, it misses the point that, even if you subscribe to the Single Universe Theory, most (maybe all) actions are not completely independent.superclive98 said:The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.
That is, the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of a single action almost certainly influences other, seemingly unrelated occurrences. As far back as 1800 in The Vocation of Man, Johann Gottleib Fichte noted that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole."
Later, Alan Turing used a more dramatic example ... "The displacement of a single electron by a billionth of a centimetre at one moment might make the difference between a man being killed by an avalanche a year later, or escaping."
Some might dismiss this as mere speculation, but quantum entanglement has already been demonstrated in practice.
When Kelman prepared for that penalty at Oxford, I saw the ghost of Ronnie Schwartz lining up for a similar kick at the same end in 2021. Maybe Ronnie's failure was the grain of sand that kept us up this time.
You don't get this stuff on other fans' websites, do you? 0 -
Blackheathen said:
I love sucking on the fumes of Charlton heritage. Suck away Henry.KiwiValley said:
@Henry Irving philosophy and quantum science are indivisible from the football condition. You can't handle it I suppose, that's why you lie stupefied in your dimly lit Charlton museum sucking on the fumes of Charlton heritageDave Rudd said:
While this could be argued to be correct, it misses the point that, even if you subscribe to the Single Universe Theory, most (maybe all) actions are not completely independent.superclive98 said:The Oxford away draw enabled us to reach 48 points, which was ultimately the aafety point.
That is, the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of a single action almost certainly influences other, seemingly unrelated occurrences. As far back as 1800 in The Vocation of Man, Johann Gottleib Fichte noted that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole."
Later, Alan Turing used a more dramatic example ... "The displacement of a single electron by a billionth of a centimetre at one moment might make the difference between a man being killed by an avalanche a year later, or escaping."
Some might dismiss this as mere speculation, but quantum entanglement has already been demonstrated in practice.
When Kelman prepared for that penalty at Oxford, I saw the ghost of Ronnie Schwartz lining up for a similar kick at the same end in 2021. Maybe Ronnie's failure was the grain of sand that kept us up this time.
You don't get this stuff on other fans' websites, do you? 
2
