Weights announced later today. Time to start crunching those stats.
One immediate strong recommendation however:
Whatever weight he is allotted, DO NOT back Tricky Trickster (Paul Nicholls-trained and current favourite on back of last Saturday's AON Chase come-from-behind win & 4 mile win at the Festival last year).
FACT: 7 year olds (even when well-weighted) have a very poor record in the National.
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Albertas Run, Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere top the list at 11st10.
Tricky Trickster, 11st 4.
Comply or Die, 11st5
War of Attrition 11st 1
State of play, 10st11
Winner at extreme distances (incl last Scottish Nat), ran well over GN fences in Beecher Chase in Nov and currently due to carry 10st 6lbs. His trainer Twiston-Davies has won the GN with Earth Summit and Bindaree so knows what it's about. He's number 70 in the list so is not guaranteed a run but number 74 in last year's order at this stage ran in the big race so hopefully will make the line up.
Of course, long way to go before 10th April and he is entered for Blue Square Chase at Haydock on Saturday (taking on several GN rivals - big race in Ireland on Sat for a number of Irish contenders aswell) so could all quickly end in tears but just an OK show at Haydock would suffice for GN purposes. Looking at the rest of the GN line-up, he is the outstanding ante-post outsider that fits the GN winning profile. An impressive show on Saturday would see his price fall for sure.
More in due course.
Quite like State of play, like to look for horses that have made it round previously.
it won the race 2 or 3 years ago and now needs 39 horses above him in weights to drop out.
Snowy morning or dream alliance for me at first glance.
Has he definitely scratched WoA? Looks like the handicapper has put quite a few fairly average Irish horses on highish marks (not that WoA falls into the "average" category).
State of Play certainly looks a strong contender.
I think it was Peanut.
Between 9-11 years old.
Just my thoughts though. People have different ways of looking at it.
8-12 years. There's a lot of 7 year olds entered this year - put a line thru them all. Silver Birch, fine horse that he is, is too old to win again at 13.
Despite the handicapper compressing the weights for the GN to give the higher quality horses a better chance, it still remains the case that since 1989, only 2 horses have carried 11st or more to win (11st 1lb the most). Only Red Rum has won carrying more than 11st 5lbs in past 50 yrs, though given the number of 7 year olds and 2.5 milers entered, you couldn't rule out a winner in the 11~11st 5lbs range this year.
You have to April mate, no need to rush :-)
Sportinglife.com/racing
1 Albertas Run 9 11.10
2 Madison Du Berlais 9 11.10
3 Notre Pere 9 11.10
4 Taranis 9 11.09
5 Our Vic 12 11.08
6 Mon Mome 10 11.07
7 Black Apalachi 11 11.06
8 Joe Lively 11 11.06
9 Vic Venturi 10 11.06
10 Comply Or Die 11 11.05
11 Don't Push It 10 11.05
12 Irish Invader 9 11.05
13 Made In Taipan 8 11.04
14 Niche Market 9 11.04
15 Tricky Trickster 7 11.04
16 Casey Jones 9 11.03
17 Cloudy Lane 10 11.03
18 Dream Alliance 9 11.03
19 Nozic 9 11.03
20 Possol 7 11.03
21 Siegemaster 9 11.03
22 My Will 10 11.02
23 Pablo Du Charmil 9 11.02
24 One Cool Cookie 9 11.01
25 War Of Attrition 11 11.01
26 Backstage 8 11.00
27 Ballyholland 9 11.00
28 Beat The Boys 9 11.00
29 Preists Leap 10 11.00
30 Roulez Cool 7 11.00
31 Beroni 8 10.13
32 Can't Buy Time 8 10.13
33 Le Beau Bai 7 10.13
34 Seven Is My Number 8 10.13
35 Snowy Morning 10 10.13
36 Air Force One 8 10.13
37 Big Fella Thanks 8 10.12
38 Darkness 11 10.12
39 Deutschland 7 10.12
40 Louping D'Ainay 11 10.12
41 Character Building 10 10.11
42 Chelsea Harbour 10 10.11
43 Dooney's Gate 9 10.11
44 Gone to Lunch 10 10.11
45 Kornati Kid 8 10.11
46 State Of Play 10 10.11
47 Ellerslie George 10 10.10
48 Follow The Plan 7 10.10
49 Jayo 7 10.10
50 Royal County Star 11 10.10
51 Ballyfitz 10 10.09
52 Conna Castle 11 10.09
53 Equus Maximus 10 10.09
54 Eric's Charm 12 10.09
55 King Johns Castle 11 10.09
56 Ollie Magern 12 10.09
57 Arbor Supreme 8 10.08
58 Cane Brake 11 10.08
59 Kilcrea Castle 8 10.08
60 Lennon 10 10.08
61 Maljimar 10 10.08
62 New Alco 9 10.08
63 Bible Lord 9 10.07
64 Irish Raptor 11 10.07
65 Mr Pointment 11 10.07
66 Parsons Pistol 8 10.07
67 Piraya 7 10.07
68 Razor Royale 8 10.07
69 The Package 7 10.07
70 Hello Bud 12 10.06
71 Iris De Balme 10 10.06
72 Palypso De Creek 7 10.06
73 Trust Fund 12 10.06
74 Abbeybraney 9 10.05
75 Cerium 9 10.05
76 Flintoff 9 10.05
77 Parsons Legacy 12 10.05
78 Royal Rosa 11 10.05
79 Silver Birch 13 10.05
80 Coe 8 10.04
81 Glenfinn Captain 11 10.04
82 Knowhere 12 10.04
83 Oodachee 11 10.04
84 Whinstone Boy 9 10.04
and others
I saw Our Vic at 66/1 today, if that ran it'd be worth noting. Joe Lively too.
I still owe you a beer!
It's entered in the Blue Square at Haydock this Saturday but, if you don't mind risking your money Ante Post, the 140 on Betfair might look quite big after that race.
Cheers Plaaayer. Will post my final selections after Cheltenham.
All the best.
He ran a very nice prep but he was a mile back in 6th at the start of the Cheltenham hill and stayed on past legless horses to finish 30 lengths off the winner. Not an unusual thing for a very good handicapper to make the minor places in the Gold Cup as a lot of the field cut their own throats to try to stay in contention.
He's obviously in great nick and hopefully will do himself proud at Aintree but he'll be carrying 11st 7lbs and no horse except Red Rum has carried more than 11st 5lbs to win for 50+ years. Just don't think he's a Red Rum.
Twiston-Davies' form is good news for Hello Bud (among others) who ran a nice enough Kim Muir over inadequate 3 miles on Thursday.
The next forfeit stage is Tuesday so we'll see whose left in after that.
Certainly a terrific stayer in the making and with a nice weight, though he does has to overcome the 7 year old barrier. Will be interesting to see whether Timmy Murphy stays loyal to Comply Or Die or switches to The Package - must be tempting to switch after that run on Tuesday (Comply Or Die doesn't look quite as up for it as in last couple of years, even with the blinkers back on).
Can't see Kornati getting the trip either today or in the GN.
Le Beau Bai seems likely to get the soft ground it prefers but for GN purposes also has the 7 year old barrier to overcome.
Iris De Balme has to overcome very poor recent display (an "infection" according to the trainer).
If any of these were to win it would certainly hurl another rock into the GN betting pool.
Blimey - that was a war of attrition - only 3 finished (including none of the 3 GN runners above) but surely a future GN contender won it in the shape of 7 year old Synchronised, reeling in the amazingly game mare L'Aventure.