Going forecast this morning from Aintree below.
Anyone there the day Earth Summit won in a bog in 1998 knows that, while it may be free-draining soil, a morning deluge on top of ground where there's a likely high water table (as there surely will be if the rain forecast for this week comes) can turn it very testing. Need to watch next week's forecast closely because testing ground is likely to open up some funky possibilities (e.g. the enigmatic Eric’s Charm making the frame).
While he has won a chase over 3 miles on soft, testing ground would only add to any doubts about 8/1 Big Fella Thanks getting the trip.
On last 3 GNs on soft or heavy ground (excluding 2001), each winner or horse placed within 10 lengths of the winner has at least been placed on soft or worse ground over at least 3.75 miles.
“AINTREE clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch is predicting "lovely jumping ground" for the three-day John Smith's Grand National meeting, which begins on Thursday week.
His confidence comes despite forecasters expecting the Merseyside area to see plenty of rain before the action starts.
A Met Office spokeswoman said: "The early signs for Aintree are for the weather to remain changeable, but perhaps not quite as wet as we have had over recent days.
"There will be some showers, but I think we will be looking at good sunny spells between the showers.
"Temperatures will be near or perhaps a little above average, but there is quite a lot of rain to come."
Tulloch admitted the severe winter had hampered grass growth, but he was otherwise upbeat before going out for his daily check on underfoot conditions on Monday afternoon.
"I think we could get quite a lot of rain this week and we will be keeping an eye on things, but the structure of the soil makes it free-draining," he said.
"If we had three or four dry days it would go through quite quickly.
"The National course is a mixture of soft and good to soft, and the Mildmay and hurdle courses are mostly good to soft.
"It is lovely jumping ground. I'm very grateful we saved the inside ground on the National course and didn't race on it at the Becher meeting, because that's fresh ground from last April."”
EDIT - Wouldn't take it for granted that McCoy will ride Can't Buy Time as heavily rumoured. He originally said that he'll make up his mind nearer the race and if it's likely to be soft don't be surprised if he opts for Don't Push It (currently 94/1 on Betfair) who would not mind a test of stamina.
Air Force One will not run in the GN because of UR and F in last 2 runs, according to Charlie Mann (will also bypass the Irish Nat because of the ground).
A lot of defections from the Irish National on Monday (many presumably because of likely terrible ground - not raceable at the moment), including Notre Pere, Snowy Morning, Deutschland, AIr Force One, Arbor Supreme & Dooneys Gate (all of whom are entered for the GN, though Air Force One already stated to be a non-runner at Aintree).
Notre Pere also stated not to be a runner at AIntree but David Pipe has indicated that GN is likely choice from several options for Madison Du Berlais (if not then weights will rise 3lbs)
Will be interesting to see how many defections there are at Monday's GN confirmations. Not looking too good for those currently less than 10-06.
when people bet make sure you get the best value available.
along with snowy morning, i quite like dream alliance. the difference in odds between certain bookies is not small in some cases, especially for the longer e/w shots. (dream alliance between 25-1 and best priced 50-1)
others with massive differing odds are nozic (between 40's and 100) joe lively (between 40 and 80) knowwhere (between 50 and 150).
Absolutely right PBS. Also worth checking which bookies are paying out on 5 rather than 4 places, particularly for long shots. The big firms tend to stick to 4 places but Bet365 & Boylesports now and Blue Square from Sat am offer 5 places.
Also worth checking Betfair for even better prices on long shots - e.g. Joe Lively at 129/1 (win) & 21/1 (1-4 places) at the moment. On Betfair antepost market stakes would be lost if not a runner, same as with bookies antepost unless stated Non-Runner No Bet, but in JL's case Tizzard has said this morning that he intends to run him (the softer the better for him) - wouldn't have him myself on the stats (too much weight) but its too big a price and he could easily plug on for a place on testing ground.
Update: Flintoff declared for Irish National on Monday
Going update for GN course at 1.30pm Friday 2 April: Soft (Heavy patches at Canal Turn & Valentines)
Met Office forecast for Aintree:
Friday/Saturday showers, some may be heavy. 10°C.
Sunday dry with sunny spells. 10°C.
Monday generally dry with strong winds, becoming cloudy pm. 11°C.
Tuesday cloudy with patchy rain, becoming dry overnight. 12°C
Wednesday remaining unsettled.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday being more settled. 13/14°C.
Looks like it should dry out somewhat but still looks likely to be more testing than recent GNs (if it were to rain on the day it might actually make it less holding and help them get thru it).
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Wouldn't take it for granted that McCoy will ride Can't Buy Time as heavily rumoured. He originally said that he'll make up his mind nearer the race and if it's likely to be soft don't be surprised if he opts for Don't Push It (currently 94/1 on Betfair) who would not mind a test of stamina.
McCoy says soft ground now leaning him towards Don't Push It - now 37/1 on Betfair (33/1 with bookies).
You read it here first!
Going update on Sunday for GN course: Good to Soft (Soft in places).
Clerk of the course predicting Good to Soft for the GN.
Clock the time of the Foxhunters on Thursday. A time of around 5mins 30 secs would be consistent with Good ground, 5.45 Good to Soft and 6.00 Soft
Confirmation stage tomorrow.
Notre Pere, Air Force One, Deutschland, Chelsea Harbour, Dooney's Gate, Equus Maximus, Lennon, Razor Royale, Anothercoppercoast and Cossack Dancer.
All scratched at today's confirmation stage.
Declarations Thursday.
Silver Birch needs 2 to come out to be guaranteed a run (1 out may still be OK depending upon result of a ballot with Cerium). Whinstone Boy needs 5 to come out to get a run, Chief Dan George needs 9 to come out - you'd have to think that, unless he takes an early tumble this afternoon at Fairyhouse, Flintoff will be 1 to come out on Thursday.
Madison Du Berlais confirmed but Pipe's already said it will be a late decision on whether to skip GN for Scottish National off featherweight vs Denman.
Hello Bud now a definite runner as is The Package.
[quote][cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Notre Pere, Air Force One, Deutschland, Chelsea Harbour, Dooney's Gate, Equus Maximus, Lennon, Razor Royale, Anothercoppercoast and Cossack Dancer. All scratched at today's confirmation stage. Declarations Thursday. Silver Birch needs 3 to come out to get a run. Chief Dan George needs 9 to come out - you'd have to think that, unless he takes an early tumble this afternoon at Fairyhouse, Flintoff will be 1 to come out on Thursday. Madison Du Berlais confirmed but Pipe's already said it will be a late decision on whether to skip GN for Scottish National off featherweight vs Denman. Hello Bud now a definite runner.[/quote]
Flintoff, perhaps significently, is a N/R today. Get on her other one in the Irish National, Officier De Reserve, at 25/1.
Cheers AA,
Gonna be a slog today - put a line through the top 12 on weight alone. I've backed the mares Bluesea Cracker & Leanne (never had any joy with the Irish Nat).
Howard Johnson has said that he'll scratch Abbeybraney (now no. 40) if that would get Royal Rosa (no. 43) into the race.
Paul Murphy's said the same about Mr Pointment to get a race for Cerium (no. 41 or 42 depending upon ballot with Silver Brich this morning).
Big unknown remains whether Pipe will pull Madison du Berlais out on Thursday - so long as the forecast going at Ayr for 17 April is nowhere near firm side of good Denman likely to run in Scot Nat with MdB carrying a featherwieght as a result.
Good news for Snowy Morning backers - David Casey has not fractured pelvis as feared yesterday and is confident of taking ride on SM.
UPDATE: Pipe says Madison Du Berlais will run in GN after schooling well over GN-like fences
Age trends
7 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 or 9.
Every winner since 1946 has been aged between 8 and 12.
No horse aged below 8 or above 12 has made the frame in the past 10 years.
A seven year old has not won the Grand National for 68 years and it's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.
Nine year olds have won 4 Nationals in the last 10 years and runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals.
Weight trends
Only one horse in 25 years has carried more than 11st to victory.
Only one horse in 51 years [red rum] has carried more than 11st 5.
9 of the last 10 winners were allotted a weight of between 10-2 and 10-12 on publication of Grand National weights.
All of the last 10 winners had their last run since National weights were announced (past 50 days).
Ratings trends
10 of last 10 winners of the race were officially rated between 136 and 148.
Runners with an official rating of between 136 and 157 have been responsible for winning the last 21 renewals.
Form trends
Since 1970 all winners had won over 3m previously.
Had run in at least 10 chases.
Only one horse that either won or was placed in a previous year’s National has gone on to win a later renewal of the race since 1998.
4 of the last 5 Grand National winners had run over hurdles in the year they won the race.
All of the last 11 winners had previously won a chase worth at least £17,000.
8 of the last 10 winners had won a chase worth at least £29,000.
All of the last 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase.
All of the last 10 winners had run between 4 and 6 times since 1st September.
8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start.
7 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles in the first three months of the year.
Trainer trends.
5 of the last nine winners were Irish trained
French bred runners have a poor record.
Paul Nicholls, despite being champion trainer has a record of 0/44 in the race.
Price trends
7 of the last 10 winners have jumped off at 20/1 or shorter.
Only 2 of the last 10 favourites have won.
Only 5 winners of the grand national have returned with odds of less than 10/1 in the last 30 years.
Since 1968 the winner has returned with grand national odds of 16/1 or less on 29 occasions.
100/1 is the biggest winning price of a grand national runner. Four winners have been returned at those odds.
The shortest grand national odds for winners were 11/4 (Poethlyn in 1919), 3/1 (Huntsman in 1862) and 10/3 (Roquefort in 1885)
There has been only four winning favourites in the last 29 races.
8 of the last 10 winners have been quoted at ante post grand national odds of between 25/1 and 40/1 at the start of February.
All good stuff JT - will compare with my fav stats. What are your conclusions? Still fancy The Package and State of Play?
Latest update is that it seems that King Johns Castle is on course to run despite not making the frame in 5 attempts since his brilliant GN 2nd 2 years ago. With MdB seemingly likely to run that leaves all the current 40 as near-definites barring injury, bug or tactical withdrawal.
I'm yet to have an in depth look at it to be honest. They were inital thoughts, but i'm going off the Package - one for a couple of years time i think, not experienced enough yet.
If the ground dries up i state of play will have a solid place claim. Just waiting for the decs, and will come to a conclusion.
[cite]Posted By: Plaaayer[/cite]Who should I back then PM?
The SOP and The Package?
Hi Plaaayer -
They're JT's (previous?) fancies, not mine though they're both classy beasts.
No 100/1 shot this year I'm afraid but assuming the field comprises the current top 40 (seems very likely) my version of the stat-crunching tells me that the winner should be one of (in no particular order):
Hello Bud (50/1 with some bookies)
Snowy Morning (16/1 generally tho 18/1 with Skybet)
Niche Market (16/1 generally)
Don't Push It (25/1 with some)
Big Fella Thanks has credentials to get a close (within 10 lengths of winner) place on decent ground (though, according to my stats, not to win unless ill fortune befalls all 4 of the above). Similarly, Erics Charm has close place potential if its soft (now looking unlikely but margin of error of official description is such that it could ride soft even if they describe it good to soft - need to clock the time of the Foxhunters on Thursday to gauge what the ground is really like).
BTW - all 4 of my win selections have ground preferences but all are able to handle the likely range from soft to good.
General update:
Silver Birch drawn to be no.41, Cerium no.42
But doesn't look like either will run unless a bug or injury hits at least one of the top 40 prior to Friday morning.
Comments
Anyone there the day Earth Summit won in a bog in 1998 knows that, while it may be free-draining soil, a morning deluge on top of ground where there's a likely high water table (as there surely will be if the rain forecast for this week comes) can turn it very testing. Need to watch next week's forecast closely because testing ground is likely to open up some funky possibilities (e.g. the enigmatic Eric’s Charm making the frame).
While he has won a chase over 3 miles on soft, testing ground would only add to any doubts about 8/1 Big Fella Thanks getting the trip.
On last 3 GNs on soft or heavy ground (excluding 2001), each winner or horse placed within 10 lengths of the winner has at least been placed on soft or worse ground over at least 3.75 miles.
“AINTREE clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch is predicting "lovely jumping ground" for the three-day John Smith's Grand National meeting, which begins on Thursday week.
His confidence comes despite forecasters expecting the Merseyside area to see plenty of rain before the action starts.
A Met Office spokeswoman said: "The early signs for Aintree are for the weather to remain changeable, but perhaps not quite as wet as we have had over recent days.
"There will be some showers, but I think we will be looking at good sunny spells between the showers.
"Temperatures will be near or perhaps a little above average, but there is quite a lot of rain to come."
Tulloch admitted the severe winter had hampered grass growth, but he was otherwise upbeat before going out for his daily check on underfoot conditions on Monday afternoon.
"I think we could get quite a lot of rain this week and we will be keeping an eye on things, but the structure of the soil makes it free-draining," he said.
"If we had three or four dry days it would go through quite quickly.
"The National course is a mixture of soft and good to soft, and the Mildmay and hurdle courses are mostly good to soft.
"It is lovely jumping ground. I'm very grateful we saved the inside ground on the National course and didn't race on it at the Becher meeting, because that's fresh ground from last April."”
EDIT - Wouldn't take it for granted that McCoy will ride Can't Buy Time as heavily rumoured. He originally said that he'll make up his mind nearer the race and if it's likely to be soft don't be surprised if he opts for Don't Push It (currently 94/1 on Betfair) who would not mind a test of stamina.
Notre Pere also stated not to be a runner at AIntree but David Pipe has indicated that GN is likely choice from several options for Madison Du Berlais (if not then weights will rise 3lbs)
Will be interesting to see how many defections there are at Monday's GN confirmations. Not looking too good for those currently less than 10-06.
along with snowy morning, i quite like dream alliance. the difference in odds between certain bookies is not small in some cases, especially for the longer e/w shots. (dream alliance between 25-1 and best priced 50-1)
others with massive differing odds are nozic (between 40's and 100) joe lively (between 40 and 80) knowwhere (between 50 and 150).
Also worth checking Betfair for even better prices on long shots - e.g. Joe Lively at 129/1 (win) & 21/1 (1-4 places) at the moment. On Betfair antepost market stakes would be lost if not a runner, same as with bookies antepost unless stated Non-Runner No Bet, but in JL's case Tizzard has said this morning that he intends to run him (the softer the better for him) - wouldn't have him myself on the stats (too much weight) but its too big a price and he could easily plug on for a place on testing ground.
Update: Flintoff declared for Irish National on Monday
Met Office forecast for Aintree:
Friday/Saturday showers, some may be heavy. 10°C.
Sunday dry with sunny spells. 10°C.
Monday generally dry with strong winds, becoming cloudy pm. 11°C.
Tuesday cloudy with patchy rain, becoming dry overnight. 12°C
Wednesday remaining unsettled.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday being more settled. 13/14°C.
Looks like it should dry out somewhat but still looks likely to be more testing than recent GNs (if it were to rain on the day it might actually make it less holding and help them get thru it).
McCoy says soft ground now leaning him towards Don't Push It - now 37/1 on Betfair (33/1 with bookies).
You read it here first!
Clerk of the course predicting Good to Soft for the GN.
Clock the time of the Foxhunters on Thursday. A time of around 5mins 30 secs would be consistent with Good ground, 5.45 Good to Soft and 6.00 Soft
Confirmation stage tomorrow.
All scratched at today's confirmation stage.
Declarations Thursday.
Silver Birch needs 2 to come out to be guaranteed a run (1 out may still be OK depending upon result of a ballot with Cerium). Whinstone Boy needs 5 to come out to get a run, Chief Dan George needs 9 to come out - you'd have to think that, unless he takes an early tumble this afternoon at Fairyhouse, Flintoff will be 1 to come out on Thursday.
Madison Du Berlais confirmed but Pipe's already said it will be a late decision on whether to skip GN for Scottish National off featherweight vs Denman.
Hello Bud now a definite runner as is The Package.
All scratched at today's confirmation stage.
Declarations Thursday.
Silver Birch needs 3 to come out to get a run. Chief Dan George needs 9 to come out - you'd have to think that, unless he takes an early tumble this afternoon at Fairyhouse, Flintoff will be 1 to come out on Thursday.
Madison Du Berlais confirmed but Pipe's already said it will be a late decision on whether to skip GN for Scottish National off featherweight vs Denman.
Hello Bud now a definite runner.[/quote]
Flintoff, perhaps significently, is a N/R today. Get on her other one in the Irish National, Officier De Reserve, at 25/1.
Gonna be a slog today - put a line through the top 12 on weight alone. I've backed the mares Bluesea Cracker & Leanne (never had any joy with the Irish Nat).
Nice runs from New Story & OdR though - nice one lads.
Paul Murphy's said the same about Mr Pointment to get a race for Cerium (no. 41 or 42 depending upon ballot with Silver Brich this morning).
Big unknown remains whether Pipe will pull Madison du Berlais out on Thursday - so long as the forecast going at Ayr for 17 April is nowhere near firm side of good Denman likely to run in Scot Nat with MdB carrying a featherwieght as a result.
Good news for Snowy Morning backers - David Casey has not fractured pelvis as feared yesterday and is confident of taking ride on SM.
UPDATE: Pipe says Madison Du Berlais will run in GN after schooling well over GN-like fences
Age trends
7 of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 or 9.
Every winner since 1946 has been aged between 8 and 12.
No horse aged below 8 or above 12 has made the frame in the past 10 years.
A seven year old has not won the Grand National for 68 years and it's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.
Nine year olds have won 4 Nationals in the last 10 years and runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals.
Weight trends
Only one horse in 25 years has carried more than 11st to victory.
Only one horse in 51 years [red rum] has carried more than 11st 5.
9 of the last 10 winners were allotted a weight of between 10-2 and 10-12 on publication of Grand National weights.
All of the last 10 winners had their last run since National weights were announced (past 50 days).
Ratings trends
10 of last 10 winners of the race were officially rated between 136 and 148.
Runners with an official rating of between 136 and 157 have been responsible for winning the last 21 renewals.
Form trends
Since 1970 all winners had won over 3m previously.
Had run in at least 10 chases.
Only one horse that either won or was placed in a previous year’s National has gone on to win a later renewal of the race since 1998.
4 of the last 5 Grand National winners had run over hurdles in the year they won the race.
All of the last 11 winners had previously won a chase worth at least £17,000.
8 of the last 10 winners had won a chase worth at least £29,000.
All of the last 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase.
All of the last 10 winners had run between 4 and 6 times since 1st September.
8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start.
7 of the last 10 winners had run over hurdles in the first three months of the year.
Trainer trends.
5 of the last nine winners were Irish trained
French bred runners have a poor record.
Paul Nicholls, despite being champion trainer has a record of 0/44 in the race.
Price trends
7 of the last 10 winners have jumped off at 20/1 or shorter.
Only 2 of the last 10 favourites have won.
Only 5 winners of the grand national have returned with odds of less than 10/1 in the last 30 years.
Since 1968 the winner has returned with grand national odds of 16/1 or less on 29 occasions.
100/1 is the biggest winning price of a grand national runner. Four winners have been returned at those odds.
The shortest grand national odds for winners were 11/4 (Poethlyn in 1919), 3/1 (Huntsman in 1862) and 10/3 (Roquefort in 1885)
There has been only four winning favourites in the last 29 races.
8 of the last 10 winners have been quoted at ante post grand national odds of between 25/1 and 40/1 at the start of February.
Latest update is that it seems that King Johns Castle is on course to run despite not making the frame in 5 attempts since his brilliant GN 2nd 2 years ago. With MdB seemingly likely to run that leaves all the current 40 as near-definites barring injury, bug or tactical withdrawal.
If the ground dries up i state of play will have a solid place claim. Just waiting for the decs, and will come to a conclusion.
The SOP and The Package?
Do C'est Ca today 4.10 Fairyhouse and then lump on the Big fella
Hi Plaaayer -
They're JT's (previous?) fancies, not mine though they're both classy beasts.
No 100/1 shot this year I'm afraid but assuming the field comprises the current top 40 (seems very likely) my version of the stat-crunching tells me that the winner should be one of (in no particular order):
Hello Bud (50/1 with some bookies)
Snowy Morning (16/1 generally tho 18/1 with Skybet)
Niche Market (16/1 generally)
Don't Push It (25/1 with some)
Big Fella Thanks has credentials to get a close (within 10 lengths of winner) place on decent ground (though, according to my stats, not to win unless ill fortune befalls all 4 of the above). Similarly, Erics Charm has close place potential if its soft (now looking unlikely but margin of error of official description is such that it could ride soft even if they describe it good to soft - need to clock the time of the Foxhunters on Thursday to gauge what the ground is really like).
Good luck.
General update:
Silver Birch drawn to be no.41, Cerium no.42
But doesn't look like either will run unless a bug or injury hits at least one of the top 40 prior to Friday morning.