[cite]Posted By: falconwood_1[/cite]Im going to the Grand National now.
My horse is now 20s :0)
Smart move to get on Snowy at 40s falconwood_1. Definitely a big chance off 10st13lbs.
Need to get their early if you're going - the security's a pain.
List of horses taken out at today's forfeit stage:
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D'Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
Gordon Elliot is hoping to get a pipe-opener into Backstage on Saturday (2.5 mile chase at Navan).
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]List of horses taken out at today's forfeit stage:
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D'Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
Gordon Elliot is hoping to get a pipe-opener into Backstage on Saturday (2.5 mile chase at Navan).
Arbor Supreme (25/1) has a lot going for it & thankfully will now get in the race.
[cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]Peanuts - is your tip Hello Bud a confirmed runner yet?
Not guaranteed but he's no.45 so very likely to get a run (no. 51 at this stage last year got in).
I've backed him and he's definitely on my list (probably the longest priced).
EDIT - Actually Bet365 are already offering Non Runner No Bet, as most should do shortly, though they're only 40/1 about Hello Bud but they pay out on 5 places - worth checking around.
[cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]Peanuts - is your tip Hello Bud a confirmed runner yet?
Not guaranteed but he's no.45 so very likely to get a run (no. 51 at this stage last year got in).
I've backed him and he's definitely on my list (probably the longest priced).
Not least cos there's 7 above him that are also entered in the Irish National on 5 April. No doubt will depend upon the ground how many go to Fairyhouse but for some (eg Air Force One) the Irish is the stated preference.
Crunching a range of stats for the top 51 remaining entries after today’s forfeit stage (# 51 at this stage last year made it into the 40 runners) and referencing against those of all winners and placed horses in GNs since 1988 (excluding the 2001 farce when only 2 finished without being remounted), I reckon that the winner of the 2010 GN should be one of (in order on the card rather than preference):
Don’t Push It [#8]
age 10, weight 11-05 – 40/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Showed class as a six year old novice chaser (close second to Denman on level weights over 2.5 miles). Has made the frame in all three chases over 3 miles+, including close second when staying on strongly under a big weight in 3.5 mile handicap at Cheltenham in November. Best form on good to soft or soft. Pulled up over hurdles at the Festival on quickish ground (3 of last 8 GN winners had poor prior runs). Same sire (Old Vic) as 2008 winner Comply or Die. Jonjo O’Neil trains – yard in good form.
Niche Market [#10]
9, 11-04 – 20/1 Victor Chandler: Hasn’t seen GN fences before. Won 2009 Irish National (3 Irish Nat winners or close seconds have subsequently won GN in last 11 years – all GN fence debutants). Good form this season (strong 3rd in the Hennessy, touched off in the Aon and a respectable run at the Festival). Breeding and record suggests good or good to soft would be ideal. Bob Buckler’s yard in OK form.
Snowy Morning [#22]
10, 10-13 – 25/1 Victor Chandler: Close 3rd in 2008 GN carrying 11-01. Impossible task last year with 11.08 but finished a respectable 30 lengths off the winner in 9th. Placed in all 4 runs in 2010 over 2-2.5 miles and handles any ground. Trainer Willie Mullins (won 2005 GN) in decent current form with 2 winners and 2 places at the Festival.
Razor Royale [#43]
8, 10-07 – 50/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Won Racing Post Chase in Feb on soft and has a 50% strike rate from four 3-mile chases. Untried beyond 3 miles (not common for GN winners but was true of Monty’s Pass in 2003). Trained by Gold Cup winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 previous GN winners). Not raced over the GN fences and regular jumping mistakes a concern but he’s only fallen once in 20 starts and has a decent record over Cheltenham’s fences (not all GN winners have been flawless jumpers). Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
Hello Bud [#45]
12, 10-06 – 50/1 generally: Also trained by Twiston-Davies. Impressive record in 3.5 mile+ chases: winning 5 (including 2009 Scottish National) and making the frame >50% of attempts (including close 3rd behind Don’t Push It at Cheltenham in November). 5th over the GN fences in this season’s Becher Chase and ran respectably at the Festival (both inadequate trips). Likes to front-run, which some consider not ideal for the GN but he should avoid the pile-ups. Has form on a range of going but front-running probably best suited by good ground. Age not ideal but he’s run fewer chases than 3 of last 7 GN winners and 2004 winner Amberleigh House was also a 12 year old. Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
Fellow GN stat-followers will note that two of these selections carry more than 11-01. As often said, no horse has carried more than this to victory since 1983 and only Red Rum has carried more than 11-05 to win in 50+ years but compression of the weights by the handicapper may finally be having an effect (all of the first 4 last year carried at least 11-00). It should still be a big advantage to carry less than 11stone in the GN but my model progressively penalises rather than eliminates horses carrying more than 11-01.
Good cases can be made for plenty of others in the field, referencing the formbook or different statistical criteria, and I can easily pick holes in each of the selections above. However, if you have a statistical approach, it’s important to resist the temptation to overlay the results with personal judgements [e.g. “Mon Mome (only if soft)” – sorry again guys]. So, I’m now going to shut up and simply put my money where my model is. It’s a percentage game and it’s served me nicely over the last four years. Will probably crash and burn this time!
In any event, let’s hope all 40 come back safe and sound. Good luck.
Be warned: there is the potential for a 3lb rise in the weights if the top weights (Notre Pere and Madison Du Berlais) come out. Notre Pere is top weighted entry for Irish National on 5 April but no decision on which he'll run in until next week.
[cite]Posted By: JT[/cite]Going to take a closer look at Snowy Morning, fancied him coupla years back - with the experience now should be a very strong contender.
Last year SM was only 6.5 lengths behind Big Fella Thanks when giving him 7lbs. In this he'll only carry 1lb more than BFT but SM is 25/1 and BFT is 8/1 fav. Close 3rd in 2008 proves SM gets the trip - BFT's not a stone cold cert to do so.
Admittedly BFT had that impressive win over 2.5m at Newbury after the GN weights were announced and presumably Ruby Walsh would prefer him over SM but you have to wonder whether all is 100% with all of Nicholls' horses after a couple of big disappointments at Cheltenham.
Dont' disagree with any of that Prophet but I didn't say BFT had not been value at 20/1. Smith treated him and SM (and one or to others actually) kindly but the win at Newbury, while very nice, doesn't assist on the matter of the trip. If he gets it he'll be there or thereabouts. We'll see.
[cite]Posted By: JT[/cite]I'm still keen on state of play.
You're taking a lot on trust from the trainer as to fitness but he's a class act and didn't have the best of luck last year.
Interesting stuff Prophet, especially about the split times last year. Was certainly a tad slow for the reported Gd (GS places) official going. Got to say Mon Mome was a worthy winner though, romping away at the end.
Great shame about Iris (particularly for Lee Power). My Will seems to have lost his enthusiasm a bit. Ruby appears to out the best in him as last year but he'll have to do without him this time. Like your other 2. BFT doesn't quite make it through my stat-cruncher as the winner but my model has him as place material.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
If you fancied Backstage based on his good win last August and his successful negotiation of the GN fences in last year’s Foxhunters, you probably wouldn’t be too bothered by his distant 8th today in the mud at Navan as he dislikes it heavy but, even so, he had to get a lot closer to the winner for the stats to give him a winning chance over 4.5 miles, even if he gets decent ground.
Twiston-Davies’s horses continue in great form. 31 runners in last 9 days have produced 9 winners and 5 places. That can change very quickly of course and NTD is notorious for hot and cold streaks but Hello Bud and Razor Royale are still both available at 50/1 and longer on Betfair.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
If you fancied Backstage based on his good win last August and his successful negotiation of the GN fences in last year’s Foxhunters, you probably wouldn’t be too bothered by his distant 8th today in the mud at Navan as he dislikes it heavy but, even so, he had to get a lot closer to the winner for the stats to give him a winning chance over 4.5 miles, even if he gets decent ground.
Twiston-Davies’s horses continue in great form. 31 runners in last 9 days have produced 9 winners and 5 places. That can change very quickly of course and NTD is notorious for hot and cold streaks but Hello Bud and Razor Royale are still both available at 50/1 and longer on Betfair.
I've already backed one of NTD's horses at 170 average. It's the one that can't jump and on that basis alone Aintree could be the making of him.
Weather forecast for Aintree for rest of this week:
Tonight: Heavy rain
Tuesday: Heavy shower
Wed: Heavy rain
Thurs: Heavy shower
Frid: Heavy rain
Sat: Heavy shower
Going on the GN course was good to soft week ago - could be the first run on soft (or worse) since the loony race of 2001.
Going forecast this morning from Aintree below.
Anyone there the day Earth Summit won in a bog in 1998 knows that, while it may be free-draining soil, a morning deluge on top of ground where there's a likely high water table (as there surely will be if the rain forecast for this week comes) can turn it very testing. Need to watch next week's forecast closely because testing ground is likely to open up some funky possibilities (e.g. the enigmatic Eric’s Charm making the frame).
While he has won a chase over 3 miles on soft, testing ground would only add to any doubts about 8/1 Big Fella Thanks getting the trip.
On last 3 GNs on soft or heavy ground (excluding 2001), each winner or horse placed within 10 lengths of the winner has at least been placed on soft or worse ground over at least 3.75 miles.
“AINTREE clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch is predicting "lovely jumping ground" for the three-day John Smith's Grand National meeting, which begins on Thursday week.
His confidence comes despite forecasters expecting the Merseyside area to see plenty of rain before the action starts.
A Met Office spokeswoman said: "The early signs for Aintree are for the weather to remain changeable, but perhaps not quite as wet as we have had over recent days.
"There will be some showers, but I think we will be looking at good sunny spells between the showers.
"Temperatures will be near or perhaps a little above average, but there is quite a lot of rain to come."
Tulloch admitted the severe winter had hampered grass growth, but he was otherwise upbeat before going out for his daily check on underfoot conditions on Monday afternoon.
"I think we could get quite a lot of rain this week and we will be keeping an eye on things, but the structure of the soil makes it free-draining," he said.
"If we had three or four dry days it would go through quite quickly.
"The National course is a mixture of soft and good to soft, and the Mildmay and hurdle courses are mostly good to soft.
"It is lovely jumping ground. I'm very grateful we saved the inside ground on the National course and didn't race on it at the Becher meeting, because that's fresh ground from last April."”
EDIT - Wouldn't take it for granted that McCoy will ride Can't Buy Time as heavily rumoured. He originally said that he'll make up his mind nearer the race and if it's likely to be soft don't be surprised if he opts for Don't Push It (currently 94/1 on Betfair) who would not mind a test of stamina.
Air Force One will not run in the GN because of UR and F in last 2 runs, according to Charlie Mann (will also bypass the Irish Nat because of the ground).
Comments
My horse is now 20s :0)
Smart move to get on Snowy at 40s falconwood_1. Definitely a big chance off 10st13lbs.
Need to get their early if you're going - the security's a pain.
All things considered, you've got to wonder if there isn't a bug going round at Nicholls' yard.
The only negative for The Package as PM said, is the age. I reckon Timmy will choose him over COD.
Still fairly sweet on state of play.
Theres a lot of horses with big chances this year....
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D'Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
Gordon Elliot is hoping to get a pipe-opener into Backstage on Saturday (2.5 mile chase at Navan).
Bud is 10st6
Not guaranteed but he's no.45 so very likely to get a run (no. 51 at this stage last year got in).
I've backed him and he's definitely on my list (probably the longest priced).
EDIT - Actually Bet365 are already offering Non Runner No Bet, as most should do shortly, though they're only 40/1 about Hello Bud but they pay out on 5 places - worth checking around.
Not least cos there's 7 above him that are also entered in the Irish National on 5 April. No doubt will depend upon the ground how many go to Fairyhouse but for some (eg Air Force One) the Irish is the stated preference.
Don’t Push It [#8]
age 10, weight 11-05 – 40/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Showed class as a six year old novice chaser (close second to Denman on level weights over 2.5 miles). Has made the frame in all three chases over 3 miles+, including close second when staying on strongly under a big weight in 3.5 mile handicap at Cheltenham in November. Best form on good to soft or soft. Pulled up over hurdles at the Festival on quickish ground (3 of last 8 GN winners had poor prior runs). Same sire (Old Vic) as 2008 winner Comply or Die. Jonjo O’Neil trains – yard in good form.
Niche Market [#10]
9, 11-04 – 20/1 Victor Chandler: Hasn’t seen GN fences before. Won 2009 Irish National (3 Irish Nat winners or close seconds have subsequently won GN in last 11 years – all GN fence debutants). Good form this season (strong 3rd in the Hennessy, touched off in the Aon and a respectable run at the Festival). Breeding and record suggests good or good to soft would be ideal. Bob Buckler’s yard in OK form.
Snowy Morning [#22]
10, 10-13 – 25/1 Victor Chandler: Close 3rd in 2008 GN carrying 11-01. Impossible task last year with 11.08 but finished a respectable 30 lengths off the winner in 9th. Placed in all 4 runs in 2010 over 2-2.5 miles and handles any ground. Trainer Willie Mullins (won 2005 GN) in decent current form with 2 winners and 2 places at the Festival.
Razor Royale [#43]
8, 10-07 – 50/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Won Racing Post Chase in Feb on soft and has a 50% strike rate from four 3-mile chases. Untried beyond 3 miles (not common for GN winners but was true of Monty’s Pass in 2003). Trained by Gold Cup winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 previous GN winners). Not raced over the GN fences and regular jumping mistakes a concern but he’s only fallen once in 20 starts and has a decent record over Cheltenham’s fences (not all GN winners have been flawless jumpers). Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
Hello Bud [#45]
12, 10-06 – 50/1 generally: Also trained by Twiston-Davies. Impressive record in 3.5 mile+ chases: winning 5 (including 2009 Scottish National) and making the frame >50% of attempts (including close 3rd behind Don’t Push It at Cheltenham in November). 5th over the GN fences in this season’s Becher Chase and ran respectably at the Festival (both inadequate trips). Likes to front-run, which some consider not ideal for the GN but he should avoid the pile-ups. Has form on a range of going but front-running probably best suited by good ground. Age not ideal but he’s run fewer chases than 3 of last 7 GN winners and 2004 winner Amberleigh House was also a 12 year old. Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
Fellow GN stat-followers will note that two of these selections carry more than 11-01. As often said, no horse has carried more than this to victory since 1983 and only Red Rum has carried more than 11-05 to win in 50+ years but compression of the weights by the handicapper may finally be having an effect (all of the first 4 last year carried at least 11-00). It should still be a big advantage to carry less than 11stone in the GN but my model progressively penalises rather than eliminates horses carrying more than 11-01.
Good cases can be made for plenty of others in the field, referencing the formbook or different statistical criteria, and I can easily pick holes in each of the selections above. However, if you have a statistical approach, it’s important to resist the temptation to overlay the results with personal judgements [e.g. “Mon Mome (only if soft)” – sorry again guys]. So, I’m now going to shut up and simply put my money where my model is. It’s a percentage game and it’s served me nicely over the last four years. Will probably crash and burn this time!
In any event, let’s hope all 40 come back safe and sound. Good luck.
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/rating_Overall_3.htm
Last year SM was only 6.5 lengths behind Big Fella Thanks when giving him 7lbs. In this he'll only carry 1lb more than BFT but SM is 25/1 and BFT is 8/1 fav. Close 3rd in 2008 proves SM gets the trip - BFT's not a stone cold cert to do so.
Admittedly BFT had that impressive win over 2.5m at Newbury after the GN weights were announced and presumably Ruby Walsh would prefer him over SM but you have to wonder whether all is 100% with all of Nicholls' horses after a couple of big disappointments at Cheltenham.
You're taking a lot on trust from the trainer as to fitness but he's a class act and didn't have the best of luck last year.
Interesting stuff Prophet, especially about the split times last year. Was certainly a tad slow for the reported Gd (GS places) official going. Got to say Mon Mome was a worthy winner though, romping away at the end.
Great shame about Iris (particularly for Lee Power). My Will seems to have lost his enthusiasm a bit. Ruby appears to out the best in him as last year but he'll have to do without him this time. Like your other 2. BFT doesn't quite make it through my stat-cruncher as the winner but my model has him as place material.
Never had much luck with the National in the past (it's a lottery after all) but hoping for a change of fortune this year.
Have you heard whether Aintree is the likely aim? He's entered for the Irish aswell on 5 Apr. Looking for preferred ground maybe.
If you fancied Backstage based on his good win last August and his successful negotiation of the GN fences in last year’s Foxhunters, you probably wouldn’t be too bothered by his distant 8th today in the mud at Navan as he dislikes it heavy but, even so, he had to get a lot closer to the winner for the stats to give him a winning chance over 4.5 miles, even if he gets decent ground.
Twiston-Davies’s horses continue in great form. 31 runners in last 9 days have produced 9 winners and 5 places. That can change very quickly of course and NTD is notorious for hot and cold streaks but Hello Bud and Razor Royale are still both available at 50/1 and longer on Betfair.
I've already backed one of NTD's horses at 170 average. It's the one that can't jump and on that basis alone Aintree could be the making of him.
Oh and it goes by the name of BALLYFITZ.
Tonight: Heavy rain
Tuesday: Heavy shower
Wed: Heavy rain
Thurs: Heavy shower
Frid: Heavy rain
Sat: Heavy shower
Going on the GN course was good to soft week ago - could be the first run on soft (or worse) since the loony race of 2001.
Anyone there the day Earth Summit won in a bog in 1998 knows that, while it may be free-draining soil, a morning deluge on top of ground where there's a likely high water table (as there surely will be if the rain forecast for this week comes) can turn it very testing. Need to watch next week's forecast closely because testing ground is likely to open up some funky possibilities (e.g. the enigmatic Eric’s Charm making the frame).
While he has won a chase over 3 miles on soft, testing ground would only add to any doubts about 8/1 Big Fella Thanks getting the trip.
On last 3 GNs on soft or heavy ground (excluding 2001), each winner or horse placed within 10 lengths of the winner has at least been placed on soft or worse ground over at least 3.75 miles.
“AINTREE clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch is predicting "lovely jumping ground" for the three-day John Smith's Grand National meeting, which begins on Thursday week.
His confidence comes despite forecasters expecting the Merseyside area to see plenty of rain before the action starts.
A Met Office spokeswoman said: "The early signs for Aintree are for the weather to remain changeable, but perhaps not quite as wet as we have had over recent days.
"There will be some showers, but I think we will be looking at good sunny spells between the showers.
"Temperatures will be near or perhaps a little above average, but there is quite a lot of rain to come."
Tulloch admitted the severe winter had hampered grass growth, but he was otherwise upbeat before going out for his daily check on underfoot conditions on Monday afternoon.
"I think we could get quite a lot of rain this week and we will be keeping an eye on things, but the structure of the soil makes it free-draining," he said.
"If we had three or four dry days it would go through quite quickly.
"The National course is a mixture of soft and good to soft, and the Mildmay and hurdle courses are mostly good to soft.
"It is lovely jumping ground. I'm very grateful we saved the inside ground on the National course and didn't race on it at the Becher meeting, because that's fresh ground from last April."”
EDIT - Wouldn't take it for granted that McCoy will ride Can't Buy Time as heavily rumoured. He originally said that he'll make up his mind nearer the race and if it's likely to be soft don't be surprised if he opts for Don't Push It (currently 94/1 on Betfair) who would not mind a test of stamina.