[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]Worth keeping an eye on the Midlands National this pm with Aintree in mind - Kornati Kid, Le Beau Bai and Iris De Balme running.
Can't see Kornati getting the trip either today or in the GN.
Le Beau Bai seems likely to get the soft ground it prefers but for GN purposes also has the 7 year old barrier to overcome.
Iris De Balme has to overcome very poor recent display (an "infection" according to the trainer).
If any of these were to win it would certainly hurl another rock into the GN betting pool.
Blimey - that was a war of attrition - only 3 finished (including none of the 3 GN runners above) but surely a future GN contender won it in the shape of 7 year old Synchronised, reeling in the amazingly game mare L'Aventure.
[cite]Posted By: falconwood_1[/cite]Im going to the Grand National now.
My horse is now 20s :0)
Smart move to get on Snowy at 40s falconwood_1. Definitely a big chance off 10st13lbs.
Need to get their early if you're going - the security's a pain.
List of horses taken out at today's forfeit stage:
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D'Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
Gordon Elliot is hoping to get a pipe-opener into Backstage on Saturday (2.5 mile chase at Navan).
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]List of horses taken out at today's forfeit stage:
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D'Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
Gordon Elliot is hoping to get a pipe-opener into Backstage on Saturday (2.5 mile chase at Navan).
Arbor Supreme (25/1) has a lot going for it & thankfully will now get in the race.
[cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]Peanuts - is your tip Hello Bud a confirmed runner yet?
Not guaranteed but he's no.45 so very likely to get a run (no. 51 at this stage last year got in).
I've backed him and he's definitely on my list (probably the longest priced).
EDIT - Actually Bet365 are already offering Non Runner No Bet, as most should do shortly, though they're only 40/1 about Hello Bud but they pay out on 5 places - worth checking around.
[cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]Peanuts - is your tip Hello Bud a confirmed runner yet?
Not guaranteed but he's no.45 so very likely to get a run (no. 51 at this stage last year got in).
I've backed him and he's definitely on my list (probably the longest priced).
Not least cos there's 7 above him that are also entered in the Irish National on 5 April. No doubt will depend upon the ground how many go to Fairyhouse but for some (eg Air Force One) the Irish is the stated preference.
If your ante-post bet is ballotted out (missed the cut) you do not lose anyway, even if it isn't non-runner no bet, your stake is returned. Not a lot of people realise this and I imagine plenty of betting slips have been incorrectly thrown away over the years, especially in the National.
Crunching a range of stats for the top 51 remaining entries after today’s forfeit stage (# 51 at this stage last year made it into the 40 runners) and referencing against those of all winners and placed horses in GNs since 1988 (excluding the 2001 farce when only 2 finished without being remounted), I reckon that the winner of the 2010 GN should be one of (in order on the card rather than preference):
Don’t Push It [#8]
age 10, weight 11-05 – 40/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Showed class as a six year old novice chaser (close second to Denman on level weights over 2.5 miles). Has made the frame in all three chases over 3 miles+, including close second when staying on strongly under a big weight in 3.5 mile handicap at Cheltenham in November. Best form on good to soft or soft. Pulled up over hurdles at the Festival on quickish ground (3 of last 8 GN winners had poor prior runs). Same sire (Old Vic) as 2008 winner Comply or Die. Jonjo O’Neil trains – yard in good form.
Niche Market [#10]
9, 11-04 – 20/1 Victor Chandler: Hasn’t seen GN fences before. Won 2009 Irish National (3 Irish Nat winners or close seconds have subsequently won GN in last 11 years – all GN fence debutants). Good form this season (strong 3rd in the Hennessy, touched off in the Aon and a respectable run at the Festival). Breeding and record suggests good or good to soft would be ideal. Bob Buckler’s yard in OK form.
Snowy Morning [#22]
10, 10-13 – 25/1 Victor Chandler: Close 3rd in 2008 GN carrying 11-01. Impossible task last year with 11.08 but finished a respectable 30 lengths off the winner in 9th. Placed in all 4 runs in 2010 over 2-2.5 miles and handles any ground. Trainer Willie Mullins (won 2005 GN) in decent current form with 2 winners and 2 places at the Festival.
Razor Royale [#43]
8, 10-07 – 50/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Won Racing Post Chase in Feb on soft and has a 50% strike rate from four 3-mile chases. Untried beyond 3 miles (not common for GN winners but was true of Monty’s Pass in 2003). Trained by Gold Cup winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 previous GN winners). Not raced over the GN fences and regular jumping mistakes a concern but he’s only fallen once in 20 starts and has a decent record over Cheltenham’s fences (not all GN winners have been flawless jumpers). Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
Hello Bud [#45]
12, 10-06 – 50/1 generally: Also trained by Twiston-Davies. Impressive record in 3.5 mile+ chases: winning 5 (including 2009 Scottish National) and making the frame >50% of attempts (including close 3rd behind Don’t Push It at Cheltenham in November). 5th over the GN fences in this season’s Becher Chase and ran respectably at the Festival (both inadequate trips). Likes to front-run, which some consider not ideal for the GN but he should avoid the pile-ups. Has form on a range of going but front-running probably best suited by good ground. Age not ideal but he’s run fewer chases than 3 of last 7 GN winners and 2004 winner Amberleigh House was also a 12 year old. Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
Fellow GN stat-followers will note that two of these selections carry more than 11-01. As often said, no horse has carried more than this to victory since 1983 and only Red Rum has carried more than 11-05 to win in 50+ years but compression of the weights by the handicapper may finally be having an effect (all of the first 4 last year carried at least 11-00). It should still be a big advantage to carry less than 11stone in the GN but my model progressively penalises rather than eliminates horses carrying more than 11-01.
Good cases can be made for plenty of others in the field, referencing the formbook or different statistical criteria, and I can easily pick holes in each of the selections above. However, if you have a statistical approach, it’s important to resist the temptation to overlay the results with personal judgements [e.g. “Mon Mome (only if soft)” – sorry again guys]. So, I’m now going to shut up and simply put my money where my model is. It’s a percentage game and it’s served me nicely over the last four years. Will probably crash and burn this time!
In any event, let’s hope all 40 come back safe and sound. Good luck.
Be warned: there is the potential for a 3lb rise in the weights if the top weights (Notre Pere and Madison Du Berlais) come out. Notre Pere is top weighted entry for Irish National on 5 April but no decision on which he'll run in until next week.
[cite]Posted By: JT[/cite]Going to take a closer look at Snowy Morning, fancied him coupla years back - with the experience now should be a very strong contender.
Last year SM was only 6.5 lengths behind Big Fella Thanks when giving him 7lbs. In this he'll only carry 1lb more than BFT but SM is 25/1 and BFT is 8/1 fav. Close 3rd in 2008 proves SM gets the trip - BFT's not a stone cold cert to do so.
Admittedly BFT had that impressive win over 2.5m at Newbury after the GN weights were announced and presumably Ruby Walsh would prefer him over SM but you have to wonder whether all is 100% with all of Nicholls' horses after a couple of big disappointments at Cheltenham.
[quote][cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite] Last year SM was only 6.5 lengths behind Big Fella Thanks when giving him 7lbs. In this he'll only carry 1lb more than BFT but SM is 25/1 and BFT is 8/1 fav. Close 3rd in 2008 proves SM gets the trip - BFT's not a stone cold cert to do so. Admittedly BFT had that impressive win over 2.5m at Newbury after the GN weights were announced and presumably Ruby Walsh would prefer him over SM but you have to wonder whether all is 100% with all of Nicholls' horses after a couple of big disappointments at Cheltenham.[/quote]
BFT is 8/1 now, they were both 20/1+ not long ago. The value at that stage was obviously BFT rather than SM. Don't see how SM is a bet at 25/1 now and BFT wasn't at 20/1 when the wieghts were issued?
Snowy may be a 6lbs better off for finishing 7.5l behind Big Fella Thanks last year but don't forget BFT was just a novice then. No novice has won since Mr What in 1958 and I don't recall many placed either (of course not many try). Have to think that BFT will find a bit on last year's performance?
There is the slight concern over the over the trip as you say, but strictly at the weights he has massive claims.
Dont' disagree with any of that Prophet but I didn't say BFT had not been value at 20/1. Smith treated him and SM (and one or to others actually) kindly but the win at Newbury, while very nice, doesn't assist on the matter of the trip. If he gets it he'll be there or thereabouts. We'll see.
Like every ante-post punter, I held my breath yesterday morning, waiting for the news of the Grand National weights.
I have no arguments regarding the pair I advised ante-post in November; after his heroics on Saturday, a mark of 152 (11-04) is justified for Niche Market – I just hope that run was worth it to connections come the elbow in April. Gone To Lunch has disappointed twice since his Hennessy run but looks well treated on the best of his form off his mark of 145 (10-11). If the National fences bring out the best in him and a return to form, as I expect them to, he would have a live chance.
If ever there was a race to revisit, the Grand National is such a race, and post-weights seems like the ideal time to take a second look and procure further strings to your bow.
The horse than stands out a mile is Big Fella Thanks off 146, who is set to carry 10-12. A commendable sixth last year as a novice off 149, on only his seventh chase start and is weighted to reverse last season’s Racing Post Chase form with the fancied Possol – Henry Daly’s charge is 11lbs worse off for finishing just over a length in front of Big Fella Thanks.
Brought alone steadily this season, is proven over the fences, his jumping is superior when going left-handed, and looks the best treated of all the fancied runners – he cannot be ignored at the weights and price. Given they are best price, advantage should be taken of Paddy Power’s ¼ odds 1-2-3-4-5 each-way terms.
Last season’s National was like no other, so many horses were in with a chance turning for home and there were around a dozen possible winners at the second last. I believe the inconsistent pace to be the reason. Front-running fallers left Offshore Account out in front and, given that one’s stamina limitation, David Casey understandably slowed matters up in front. It was almost pedestrian between Becher’s and the Canal Turn and the split between Becher’s and the second last was very slow in comparison to previous years.
I’m not suggesting the form is totally unreliable but it allowed many to creep into the race from impossible looking positions (Arteea and Cerium), it obviously flattering some and hindering others. Arguably the biggest sufferers were the out-and-out stayer Comply Or Die, who would’ve surely been suited by a more sustained gallop, and My Will, whose cruising speed (in the context of a 4m4f race) brought him to the fore of the dawdling gallop, possibly sooner than ideal.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see another gallant attempt from Comply Or Die but perhaps My Will is the better value of the two. He disappointed behind Our Vic in December but there is a chance the run came to quickly after his Hennessy seventh. Off the course since, he’ll be fresh for his next start, and if that comes in the Gold Cup and we see another respectable performance in the race, his odds will plummet. He is over priced and worth a small win bet with a view to trade.
Iris De Balme is another off an eye-catching mark, but at 10-06 it’s going to be tight with regards to making the cut. A recent comeback over hurdles suggests he could be on the way back but given his problems he may be one to play at a later date.
My initial thoughts are that Phil Smith has done an excellent job. With the difference between top and bottom weights likely to be as smaller than ever, physical weight carried is less of a factor than ever before, and as with a typical handicap chase, official handicaps marks once again come to the fore when searching for a winner. It should result in more classy horses taking their chance and that can only be good for the race.
Since this one of mine has bit the dust (Gone To Lunch). Left with Niche Market (25/1 win), My Will (40/1 win), and Big Fella Thanks (20/1 EW). Thankfully I held off with backing Iris De Balme. Not sure about My Will, would've liked a more encouraging display in the Gold Cup. May play again on the day, depends what happens. Happy enough at the moment though.
[cite]Posted By: JT[/cite]I'm still keen on state of play.
You're taking a lot on trust from the trainer as to fitness but he's a class act and didn't have the best of luck last year.
Interesting stuff Prophet, especially about the split times last year. Was certainly a tad slow for the reported Gd (GS places) official going. Got to say Mon Mome was a worthy winner though, romping away at the end.
Great shame about Iris (particularly for Lee Power). My Will seems to have lost his enthusiasm a bit. Ruby appears to out the best in him as last year but he'll have to do without him this time. Like your other 2. BFT doesn't quite make it through my stat-cruncher as the winner but my model has him as place material.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
If you fancied Backstage based on his good win last August and his successful negotiation of the GN fences in last year’s Foxhunters, you probably wouldn’t be too bothered by his distant 8th today in the mud at Navan as he dislikes it heavy but, even so, he had to get a lot closer to the winner for the stats to give him a winning chance over 4.5 miles, even if he gets decent ground.
Twiston-Davies’s horses continue in great form. 31 runners in last 9 days have produced 9 winners and 5 places. That can change very quickly of course and NTD is notorious for hot and cold streaks but Hello Bud and Razor Royale are still both available at 50/1 and longer on Betfair.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
If you fancied Backstage based on his good win last August and his successful negotiation of the GN fences in last year’s Foxhunters, you probably wouldn’t be too bothered by his distant 8th today in the mud at Navan as he dislikes it heavy but, even so, he had to get a lot closer to the winner for the stats to give him a winning chance over 4.5 miles, even if he gets decent ground.
Twiston-Davies’s horses continue in great form. 31 runners in last 9 days have produced 9 winners and 5 places. That can change very quickly of course and NTD is notorious for hot and cold streaks but Hello Bud and Razor Royale are still both available at 50/1 and longer on Betfair.
I've already backed one of NTD's horses at 170 average. It's the one that can't jump and on that basis alone Aintree could be the making of him.
Weather forecast for Aintree for rest of this week:
Tonight: Heavy rain
Tuesday: Heavy shower
Wed: Heavy rain
Thurs: Heavy shower
Frid: Heavy rain
Sat: Heavy shower
Going on the GN course was good to soft week ago - could be the first run on soft (or worse) since the loony race of 2001.
Comments
Blimey - that was a war of attrition - only 3 finished (including none of the 3 GN runners above) but surely a future GN contender won it in the shape of 7 year old Synchronised, reeling in the amazingly game mare L'Aventure.
My horse is now 20s :0)
Smart move to get on Snowy at 40s falconwood_1. Definitely a big chance off 10st13lbs.
Need to get their early if you're going - the security's a pain.
All things considered, you've got to wonder if there isn't a bug going round at Nicholls' yard.
The only negative for The Package as PM said, is the age. I reckon Timmy will choose him over COD.
Still fairly sweet on state of play.
Theres a lot of horses with big chances this year....
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D'Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
Gordon Elliot is hoping to get a pipe-opener into Backstage on Saturday (2.5 mile chase at Navan).
Bud is 10st6
Not guaranteed but he's no.45 so very likely to get a run (no. 51 at this stage last year got in).
I've backed him and he's definitely on my list (probably the longest priced).
EDIT - Actually Bet365 are already offering Non Runner No Bet, as most should do shortly, though they're only 40/1 about Hello Bud but they pay out on 5 places - worth checking around.
Not least cos there's 7 above him that are also entered in the Irish National on 5 April. No doubt will depend upon the ground how many go to Fairyhouse but for some (eg Air Force One) the Irish is the stated preference.
If your ante-post bet is ballotted out (missed the cut) you do not lose anyway, even if it isn't non-runner no bet, your stake is returned. Not a lot of people realise this and I imagine plenty of betting slips have been incorrectly thrown away over the years, especially in the National.
Don’t Push It [#8]
age 10, weight 11-05 – 40/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Showed class as a six year old novice chaser (close second to Denman on level weights over 2.5 miles). Has made the frame in all three chases over 3 miles+, including close second when staying on strongly under a big weight in 3.5 mile handicap at Cheltenham in November. Best form on good to soft or soft. Pulled up over hurdles at the Festival on quickish ground (3 of last 8 GN winners had poor prior runs). Same sire (Old Vic) as 2008 winner Comply or Die. Jonjo O’Neil trains – yard in good form.
Niche Market [#10]
9, 11-04 – 20/1 Victor Chandler: Hasn’t seen GN fences before. Won 2009 Irish National (3 Irish Nat winners or close seconds have subsequently won GN in last 11 years – all GN fence debutants). Good form this season (strong 3rd in the Hennessy, touched off in the Aon and a respectable run at the Festival). Breeding and record suggests good or good to soft would be ideal. Bob Buckler’s yard in OK form.
Snowy Morning [#22]
10, 10-13 – 25/1 Victor Chandler: Close 3rd in 2008 GN carrying 11-01. Impossible task last year with 11.08 but finished a respectable 30 lengths off the winner in 9th. Placed in all 4 runs in 2010 over 2-2.5 miles and handles any ground. Trainer Willie Mullins (won 2005 GN) in decent current form with 2 winners and 2 places at the Festival.
Razor Royale [#43]
8, 10-07 – 50/1 Skybet (but currently bigger on Betfair): Won Racing Post Chase in Feb on soft and has a 50% strike rate from four 3-mile chases. Untried beyond 3 miles (not common for GN winners but was true of Monty’s Pass in 2003). Trained by Gold Cup winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 previous GN winners). Not raced over the GN fences and regular jumping mistakes a concern but he’s only fallen once in 20 starts and has a decent record over Cheltenham’s fences (not all GN winners have been flawless jumpers). Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
Hello Bud [#45]
12, 10-06 – 50/1 generally: Also trained by Twiston-Davies. Impressive record in 3.5 mile+ chases: winning 5 (including 2009 Scottish National) and making the frame >50% of attempts (including close 3rd behind Don’t Push It at Cheltenham in November). 5th over the GN fences in this season’s Becher Chase and ran respectably at the Festival (both inadequate trips). Likes to front-run, which some consider not ideal for the GN but he should avoid the pile-ups. Has form on a range of going but front-running probably best suited by good ground. Age not ideal but he’s run fewer chases than 3 of last 7 GN winners and 2004 winner Amberleigh House was also a 12 year old. Chance unaffected by any weight rise.
With a respectable run this Saturday, it is also possible that Backstage could improve his stats sufficiently to fit the bill.
Fellow GN stat-followers will note that two of these selections carry more than 11-01. As often said, no horse has carried more than this to victory since 1983 and only Red Rum has carried more than 11-05 to win in 50+ years but compression of the weights by the handicapper may finally be having an effect (all of the first 4 last year carried at least 11-00). It should still be a big advantage to carry less than 11stone in the GN but my model progressively penalises rather than eliminates horses carrying more than 11-01.
Good cases can be made for plenty of others in the field, referencing the formbook or different statistical criteria, and I can easily pick holes in each of the selections above. However, if you have a statistical approach, it’s important to resist the temptation to overlay the results with personal judgements [e.g. “Mon Mome (only if soft)” – sorry again guys]. So, I’m now going to shut up and simply put my money where my model is. It’s a percentage game and it’s served me nicely over the last four years. Will probably crash and burn this time!
In any event, let’s hope all 40 come back safe and sound. Good luck.
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/rating_Overall_3.htm
Last year SM was only 6.5 lengths behind Big Fella Thanks when giving him 7lbs. In this he'll only carry 1lb more than BFT but SM is 25/1 and BFT is 8/1 fav. Close 3rd in 2008 proves SM gets the trip - BFT's not a stone cold cert to do so.
Admittedly BFT had that impressive win over 2.5m at Newbury after the GN weights were announced and presumably Ruby Walsh would prefer him over SM but you have to wonder whether all is 100% with all of Nicholls' horses after a couple of big disappointments at Cheltenham.
Last year SM was only 6.5 lengths behind Big Fella Thanks when giving him 7lbs. In this he'll only carry 1lb more than BFT but SM is 25/1 and BFT is 8/1 fav. Close 3rd in 2008 proves SM gets the trip - BFT's not a stone cold cert to do so.
Admittedly BFT had that impressive win over 2.5m at Newbury after the GN weights were announced and presumably Ruby Walsh would prefer him over SM but you have to wonder whether all is 100% with all of Nicholls' horses after a couple of big disappointments at Cheltenham.[/quote]
BFT is 8/1 now, they were both 20/1+ not long ago. The value at that stage was obviously BFT rather than SM. Don't see how SM is a bet at 25/1 now and BFT wasn't at 20/1 when the wieghts were issued?
Snowy may be a 6lbs better off for finishing 7.5l behind Big Fella Thanks last year but don't forget BFT was just a novice then. No novice has won since Mr What in 1958 and I don't recall many placed either (of course not many try). Have to think that BFT will find a bit on last year's performance?
There is the slight concern over the over the trip as you say, but strictly at the weights he has massive claims.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Like every ante-post punter, I held my breath yesterday morning, waiting for the news of the Grand National weights.
I have no arguments regarding the pair I advised ante-post in November; after his heroics on Saturday, a mark of 152 (11-04) is justified for Niche Market – I just hope that run was worth it to connections come the elbow in April. Gone To Lunch has disappointed twice since his Hennessy run but looks well treated on the best of his form off his mark of 145 (10-11). If the National fences bring out the best in him and a return to form, as I expect them to, he would have a live chance.
If ever there was a race to revisit, the Grand National is such a race, and post-weights seems like the ideal time to take a second look and procure further strings to your bow.
The horse than stands out a mile is Big Fella Thanks off 146, who is set to carry 10-12. A commendable sixth last year as a novice off 149, on only his seventh chase start and is weighted to reverse last season’s Racing Post Chase form with the fancied Possol – Henry Daly’s charge is 11lbs worse off for finishing just over a length in front of Big Fella Thanks.
Brought alone steadily this season, is proven over the fences, his jumping is superior when going left-handed, and looks the best treated of all the fancied runners – he cannot be ignored at the weights and price. Given they are best price, advantage should be taken of Paddy Power’s ¼ odds 1-2-3-4-5 each-way terms.
Last season’s National was like no other, so many horses were in with a chance turning for home and there were around a dozen possible winners at the second last. I believe the inconsistent pace to be the reason. Front-running fallers left Offshore Account out in front and, given that one’s stamina limitation, David Casey understandably slowed matters up in front. It was almost pedestrian between Becher’s and the Canal Turn and the split between Becher’s and the second last was very slow in comparison to previous years.
I’m not suggesting the form is totally unreliable but it allowed many to creep into the race from impossible looking positions (Arteea and Cerium), it obviously flattering some and hindering others. Arguably the biggest sufferers were the out-and-out stayer Comply Or Die, who would’ve surely been suited by a more sustained gallop, and My Will, whose cruising speed (in the context of a 4m4f race) brought him to the fore of the dawdling gallop, possibly sooner than ideal.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see another gallant attempt from Comply Or Die but perhaps My Will is the better value of the two. He disappointed behind Our Vic in December but there is a chance the run came to quickly after his Hennessy seventh. Off the course since, he’ll be fresh for his next start, and if that comes in the Gold Cup and we see another respectable performance in the race, his odds will plummet. He is over priced and worth a small win bet with a view to trade.
Iris De Balme is another off an eye-catching mark, but at 10-06 it’s going to be tight with regards to making the cut. A recent comeback over hurdles suggests he could be on the way back but given his problems he may be one to play at a later date.
My initial thoughts are that Phil Smith has done an excellent job. With the difference between top and bottom weights likely to be as smaller than ever, physical weight carried is less of a factor than ever before, and as with a typical handicap chase, official handicaps marks once again come to the fore when searching for a winner.
It should result in more classy horses taking their chance and that can only be good for the race.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since this one of mine has bit the dust (Gone To Lunch). Left with Niche Market (25/1 win), My Will (40/1 win), and Big Fella Thanks (20/1 EW). Thankfully I held off with backing Iris De Balme. Not sure about My Will, would've liked a more encouraging display in the Gold Cup. May play again on the day, depends what happens. Happy enough at the moment though.
You're taking a lot on trust from the trainer as to fitness but he's a class act and didn't have the best of luck last year.
Interesting stuff Prophet, especially about the split times last year. Was certainly a tad slow for the reported Gd (GS places) official going. Got to say Mon Mome was a worthy winner though, romping away at the end.
Great shame about Iris (particularly for Lee Power). My Will seems to have lost his enthusiasm a bit. Ruby appears to out the best in him as last year but he'll have to do without him this time. Like your other 2. BFT doesn't quite make it through my stat-cruncher as the winner but my model has him as place material.
Never had much luck with the National in the past (it's a lottery after all) but hoping for a change of fortune this year.
Have you heard whether Aintree is the likely aim? He's entered for the Irish aswell on 5 Apr. Looking for preferred ground maybe.
If you fancied Backstage based on his good win last August and his successful negotiation of the GN fences in last year’s Foxhunters, you probably wouldn’t be too bothered by his distant 8th today in the mud at Navan as he dislikes it heavy but, even so, he had to get a lot closer to the winner for the stats to give him a winning chance over 4.5 miles, even if he gets decent ground.
Twiston-Davies’s horses continue in great form. 31 runners in last 9 days have produced 9 winners and 5 places. That can change very quickly of course and NTD is notorious for hot and cold streaks but Hello Bud and Razor Royale are still both available at 50/1 and longer on Betfair.
I've already backed one of NTD's horses at 170 average. It's the one that can't jump and on that basis alone Aintree could be the making of him.
Oh and it goes by the name of BALLYFITZ.
Tonight: Heavy rain
Tuesday: Heavy shower
Wed: Heavy rain
Thurs: Heavy shower
Frid: Heavy rain
Sat: Heavy shower
Going on the GN course was good to soft week ago - could be the first run on soft (or worse) since the loony race of 2001.