Opened a Betfred account just for this last night, as was best price for Snowy Morning at 16/1, stuck a £10 on. was tempted to put £20 but didnt get my free bet? dunno why as deposited £30, transfered others to poker to try it out
Sorry if i've missed it somewhere on here but am I right in thinking the only actual bookies, i.e. not solely online, that offers 1-5 places is Paddy Power?
[cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]Opened a Betfred account just for this last night, as was best price for Snowy Morning at 16/1, stuck a £10 on. was tempted to put £20 but didnt get my free bet? dunno why as deposited £30, transfered others to poker to try it out
I think some sites only give your free bet once your original bet has been settled. Therefore you should have the free bet on your account 5pm on saturday.
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Sorry if i've missed it somewhere on here but am I right in thinking the only actual bookies, i.e. not solely online, that offers 1-5 places is Paddy Power?
[cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]Opened a Betfred account just for this last night, as was best price for Snowy Morning at 16/1, stuck a £10 on. was tempted to put £20 but didnt get my free bet? dunno why as deposited £30, transfered others to poker to try it out
I think some sites only give your free bet once your original bet has been settled. Therefore you should have the free bet on your account 5pm on saturday.
yeah mate i emailed them, was out of the terms on conditions which wasnt clear had to bet at least £25 but cos i emailed them they said to email them once race finished and they will put £20 in my account :-) lol sorted
Put another 2 on today lunchtime, £2.50 eachway on Joe lively 66/1 and Cloudy lane 40/1 so total bet £10 gotta win on one of these three! although knowing my luck 2 will go on the first and one on the last when wel placed ......well see
[cite]Posted By: LenGlover[/cite]Any thoughts re Vic Venturi?
On the plus side, won the Becher Chase over the National fences in November.
Negatives: has had 2 runs at 3.5 miles+ (both in the Irish Nat) and not done particularly well. Also has a big weight to carry at 11-06.
Does'nt mean a lot as probably wont be right but here are my picks. Win Niche Market 18/1 Win State Of Play 20/1 EW Arbor Supreme 18/1 EW Dream Alliance 40/1
I'm not doubting your picks for a second, you've more than earned respect on here with your past successes but what is stopping you from putting a line through Niche Market and Don't Push It given their weight (11st 4 and 11st 5 respectively). I like the look of both of these for different reasons but the weight is putting me off, something that obviously didn't happen for you so i'm just wondering why.
Do they just show such strength in other areas they simply MUST be considered, or do you think that the rapidly drying ground makes the increased weight so much more bearable?
[cite]Posted By: ISawLeaburnScore[/cite]Peanuts can I just pick your brains please?
I'm not doubting your picks for a second, you've more than earned respect on here with your past successes but what is stopping you from putting a line through Niche Market and Don't Push It given their weight (11st 4 and 11st 5 respectively). I like the look of both of these for different reasons but the weight is putting me off, something that obviously didn't happen for you so i'm just wondering why.
Do they just show such strength in other areas they simply MUST be considered, or do you think that the rapidly drying ground makes the increased weight so much more bearable?
Thanks for the compliments ISLS. Naturally, I'm due a blank but I use a scoring system that looks at a range of factors and the specific experience of each horse in the field.
According to my model, the weight incurs a penalty but given the handicapper’s increasing compression of the weights (all first 4 last year carried 11 stone+) you can no longer put a line through a runner because of the weight he carries. My system penalises horses carrying more than 11.01 and increases the penalty at 11-06+ and 11-09+. This is regardless of likely ground – there have been placed horses in recent years carrying big weights on soft or heavy going [The Thinker & Suny Bay]).
But, as you suggest, there are compensating factors for certain horses.
In Niche Market’s case:
• Irish National winner (the Irish Nat, along with the Welsh Nat, the Hennessy and the Gold Cup, has a good correlation with GN success)
• Strong, close 2nd in Aon Chase in February. Good correlation of GN winners with strong performances in quality 3 mile+ chases in same season
• Pure stats but has run 5 times since 1st Sept and less than 25 days since last run are a component of classic GN winner profile.
In Don’t Push It’s case:
• Has made the frame in all three 3 mile+ chases.
• That included a strong 2nd (staying on under big weight) in 3.5 mile chase at Cheltenham in November
• Again 4 runs in season and 23 days since last run fit the profile.
Could be horribly wrong but if you have a stat-based model you need to go with the results.
[cite]Posted By: Covered End[/cite]
Ok as you picked last year's winner, I've done the lot.
As my middle name is Jonah I suggest everyone else steers well clear :-)
& Thanks
Cheers Covered End. Actually the record for my stats-based model is a bit longer than that:
2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum) from 6 selections
2007: 2nd (McKelvey-recommended on this board) from 3 selections
2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings) from 5 selections (recommended here)
2009: winner (Mon Mome) from 6 selections (recommended here, though I screwed it for many by erroneously suggesting he needed it soft)
The model evolves every year with the addition of new data. Of course it will fail spectacularly in some years (probably this one, as it’s a particularly competitive field) but it’s a long term, percentage game.
Anyway, there are plenty of other strong contenders recommended by others in this thread. Good luck to all.
Let’s hope it’s a cracking race with no fatalities.
Positives: handled National fences nicely in Foxhunters last year over 2.75 miles (though never really in contention to win) / 2 wins from 3 chases at 3 miles+ (only defeat on soft ground – tomorrow’s going is his preferred Good) / canny trainer (won GN with Silver Birch in 2007)
Negatives: even allowing for unsuitable heavy ground, ran poorly 14 days ago (definitely asked for an effort) when 81 length 8th over 2.5 miles / has never run in Class 1 chase over 3 miles+ / carrying 11 stone which, though certainly not a stopping weight, seems plenty for what he’s achieved
Big Fella Thanks (£11 return with £1 on)
Comply Or Die (£8.50 return with 50p)
Irish Raptor (£17 return 50p on)
Man Mome (6.50 return 50p on)
The Package (6.50 return 50p on)
Erics Charm (10.25 with 25p on)
Niche Market (8.50 with 50p on)
State Of Play (8.50 with 50p on)
Vic Venturi (13.00 with 50p on)
Royal Rosa (50.50 with 50p on)
Black Apalachi (8.50 with 50p on)
Backstage (5.25 with 25p on)
[cite]Posted By: NathanPrior[/cite]Big Fella Thanks (£11 return with £1 on)
Comply Or Die (£8.50 return with 50p)
Irish Raptor (£17 return 50p on)
Man Mome (6.50 return 50p on)
The Package (6.50 return 50p on)
Erics Charm (10.25 with 25p on)
Niche Market (8.50 with 50p on)
State Of Play (8.50 with 50p on)
Vic Venturi (13.00 with 50p on)
Royal Rosa (50.50 with 50p on)
Black Apalachi (8.50 with 50p on)
Backstage (5.25 with 25p on)
Comments
I think some sites only give your free bet once your original bet has been settled. Therefore you should have the free bet on your account 5pm on saturday.
66/1 still available in places but you might have to be quick given that it is currently 65-70 on Betfair.
Bet365 & Victor Chandler are 1-5 places aswell.
Blue Square also (I think)
I reckon winner will be one of:
Hello Bud
Snowy Morning
Niche Market
Don't Push It
Place potential:
Big Fella Thanks
Erics Charm
Good luck
yeah mate i emailed them, was out of the terms on conditions which wasnt clear had to bet at least £25 but cos i emailed them they said to email them once race finished and they will put £20 in my account :-) lol sorted
Put another 2 on today lunchtime, £2.50 eachway on Joe lively 66/1 and Cloudy lane 40/1 so total bet £10 gotta win on one of these three! although knowing my luck 2 will go on the first and one on the last when wel placed ......well see
My moneys with 'dusty rug'.....never been beaten.
On the plus side, won the Becher Chase over the National fences in November.
Negatives: has had 2 runs at 3.5 miles+ (both in the Irish Nat) and not done particularly well. Also has a big weight to carry at 11-06.
Mullins should have kept Dooneys Gate in the National
Win Niche Market 18/1
Win State Of Play 20/1
EW Arbor Supreme 18/1
EW Dream Alliance 40/1
http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/horseracing/uk-irish/Aintree/mhr/285115-2-20100410-Aintree-6.html
snowy morning win 17.5 place 5
dream alliance win 50 place 11
all with betfair.
(everyone lump on niche market, as thats the one that was swaying me, but never change a bet blah blah..........)
I'm not doubting your picks for a second, you've more than earned respect on here with your past successes but what is stopping you from putting a line through Niche Market and Don't Push It given their weight (11st 4 and 11st 5 respectively). I like the look of both of these for different reasons but the weight is putting me off, something that obviously didn't happen for you so i'm just wondering why.
Do they just show such strength in other areas they simply MUST be considered, or do you think that the rapidly drying ground makes the increased weight so much more bearable?
Ok as you picked last year's winner, I've done the lot.
As my middle name is Jonah I suggest everyone else steers well clear :-)
& Thanks
Thanks for the compliments ISLS. Naturally, I'm due a blank but I use a scoring system that looks at a range of factors and the specific experience of each horse in the field.
According to my model, the weight incurs a penalty but given the handicapper’s increasing compression of the weights (all first 4 last year carried 11 stone+) you can no longer put a line through a runner because of the weight he carries. My system penalises horses carrying more than 11.01 and increases the penalty at 11-06+ and 11-09+. This is regardless of likely ground – there have been placed horses in recent years carrying big weights on soft or heavy going [The Thinker & Suny Bay]).
But, as you suggest, there are compensating factors for certain horses.
In Niche Market’s case:
• Irish National winner (the Irish Nat, along with the Welsh Nat, the Hennessy and the Gold Cup, has a good correlation with GN success)
• Strong, close 2nd in Aon Chase in February. Good correlation of GN winners with strong performances in quality 3 mile+ chases in same season
• Pure stats but has run 5 times since 1st Sept and less than 25 days since last run are a component of classic GN winner profile.
In Don’t Push It’s case:
• Has made the frame in all three 3 mile+ chases.
• That included a strong 2nd (staying on under big weight) in 3.5 mile chase at Cheltenham in November
• Again 4 runs in season and 23 days since last run fit the profile.
Could be horribly wrong but if you have a stat-based model you need to go with the results.
Bon chance
Cheers Covered End. Actually the record for my stats-based model is a bit longer than that:
2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum) from 6 selections
2007: 2nd (McKelvey-recommended on this board) from 3 selections
2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings) from 5 selections (recommended here)
2009: winner (Mon Mome) from 6 selections (recommended here, though I screwed it for many by erroneously suggesting he needed it soft)
The model evolves every year with the addition of new data. Of course it will fail spectacularly in some years (probably this one, as it’s a particularly competitive field) but it’s a long term, percentage game.
Anyway, there are plenty of other strong contenders recommended by others in this thread. Good luck to all.
Let’s hope it’s a cracking race with no fatalities.
Positives: handled National fences nicely in Foxhunters last year over 2.75 miles (though never really in contention to win) / 2 wins from 3 chases at 3 miles+ (only defeat on soft ground – tomorrow’s going is his preferred Good) / canny trainer (won GN with Silver Birch in 2007)
Negatives: even allowing for unsuitable heavy ground, ran poorly 14 days ago (definitely asked for an effort) when 81 length 8th over 2.5 miles / has never run in Class 1 chase over 3 miles+ / carrying 11 stone which, though certainly not a stopping weight, seems plenty for what he’s achieved
Will probably romp home.
Comply Or Die (£8.50 return with 50p)
Irish Raptor (£17 return 50p on)
Man Mome (6.50 return 50p on)
The Package (6.50 return 50p on)
Erics Charm (10.25 with 25p on)
Niche Market (8.50 with 50p on)
State Of Play (8.50 with 50p on)
Vic Venturi (13.00 with 50p on)
Royal Rosa (50.50 with 50p on)
Black Apalachi (8.50 with 50p on)
Backstage (5.25 with 25p on)
Therefore you should avoid these at all costs.
i reckon you might have a chance there nathan