Great for Jonjo and for JP McManus – he may be filthy rich but he’s a true jumps racing fan and gives all of his countless horses a 5-star retirement when they’re done.
[cite]Posted By: mistrollingin[/cite]well played peanuts. very impressive.
Most kind - if only the stats worked so well with other races - a once a year exercise I'm afraid but delighted it's stood up for another year.
Cheers.
Can you do me a favour Peanuts, next year when you decide to get on the eventual winner early doors at something around 60/1 can you drop me a whisper?
[cite]Posted By: Off_it[/cite]Can you do me a favour Peanuts, next year when you decide to get on the eventual winner early doors at something around 60/1 can you drop me a whisper?
Cheers.
;o)
Page 2 of the thread Off It:
Mar 23 recommended at 40/1
Mar 30 tip off re McCoy 94/1
Yeah, but I'm stoopid - so unless you whisper me I can't be expected to read every thread. Bear it in mind for next year please.
If you'd whispered me I would've had £10k on it, so it's all your fault completely that I'm going to have to keep working for a living and my kids will have a less privileged upbringing. Grrrrr ....
[cite]Posted By: WSS[/cite]PM, if you don't mind me asking - are you a professional gambler?
Nope - just a big jumps racing fan and Grand National anorak. Barely make a crust from the gee-gees the rest of the year though I did have Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup (first time I'd made a profit at the Festival for a while) and the Irish Nat winner.
The thing is the journos and pundits can't get it thru their heads that handicap "good things" mean diddly squat when it comes to the GN. The handicapper is doing his best to make it easier for the "better" horses with the compression of the weights - now he's got a 11.05 winner maybe he'll be satisfied.
The clues are there for all to see in the stats for each horse. Of course it depends what stats you choose to look at and how you weight them (not every contender ticks every box).
In DPI's case it was mainly his strike rate at 3 miles+ and his strong performance over 3.5 miles under a big weight at Cheltenham in Nov. He didn’t have too many negatives other than a slightly higher than ideal weight to carry.
As a youngster he had very good form vs Denman. People overlooked him (until McCoy took the ride) because he ran poorly over hurdles at the Festival but, as Mon Mome should have reminded everyone last year, so long as there's been a strong performance in a 3 mile+ chase in the current season, a recent poor run doesn't necessarily matter.
Can’t quite believe it myself that its worked again this year – must crash and burn next time!
[cite]Posted By: Off_it[/cite]Yeah, but I'm stoopid - so unless you whisper me I can't be expected to read every thread. Bear it in mind for next year please.
If you'd whispered me I would've had £10k on it, so it's all your fault completely that I'm going to have to keep working for a living and my kids will have a less privileged upbringing. Grrrrr ....
Anybody know what the starting odds were for Hello Bud... Had a few quid on him EW, with Jennings, and I think they pay out for 5th place?
Thanks for the tips on here, I actually had a few quid on the winner this year, as well... Cheers!
That was Paddy Power's prices, which were a touch lower due to their 5 places offer and the drop from 33 to 20 was RAPID. You may have still got mid 20's on the official SP, I don't know as the official results only list the top 4.
Well done on 5th, two from home he started to toil a bit, before then I thought the way he was jumping he was really going to challenge and bring home another big winner.
[cite]Posted By: joeaddick[/cite]All the prices shooted down before the off.
All went mental in the final hour as they usually do... Don't Push It started the day at 20 and was down to 12/1 SF before going up to 20/1 again and then in 15 minutes was in to 10/1 JF (as I thought might happen considering the Ruby Walsh debacle). Madness.
[cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]Cheers Peanut, i too put money e/w on your 4 tips, thank you.
I'm also chuckling at Nathan, as i believe he bet on TWELVE horses but not the winner!!
Comments
I did indeed, 1 3 & 5 for me from six selections so happy hunting... well done Peanuts again!
I thought Hello Bud was going to win it a few from home, jumped with superb fluency throughout, possibly shot his bolt though... great ride
Well done, also to slip State Of play in there – he’s a class act.
I didn’t have 5th place for HB but had a place bet on BFT so that compensated………..also for other disappointments this afternoon!
HB got a bit bullied out of it but was pretty much spent. Great run by a 12 year old when you consider the pace they went at.
Think I fancy a brew.
Most kind - if only the stats worked so well with other races - a once a year exercise I'm afraid but delighted it's stood up for another year.
Cheers.
Cheers.
;o)
Page 2 of the thread Off It:
Mar 23 recommended at 40/1
Mar 30 tip off re McCoy 94/1
Oh ye of little faith!
;o)
Cheers Tavern
If you'd whispered me I would've had £10k on it, so it's all your fault completely that I'm going to have to keep working for a living and my kids will have a less privileged upbringing. Grrrrr ....
;o)
Nope - just a big jumps racing fan and Grand National anorak. Barely make a crust from the gee-gees the rest of the year though I did have Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup (first time I'd made a profit at the Festival for a while) and the Irish Nat winner.
The thing is the journos and pundits can't get it thru their heads that handicap "good things" mean diddly squat when it comes to the GN. The handicapper is doing his best to make it easier for the "better" horses with the compression of the weights - now he's got a 11.05 winner maybe he'll be satisfied.
The clues are there for all to see in the stats for each horse. Of course it depends what stats you choose to look at and how you weight them (not every contender ticks every box).
In DPI's case it was mainly his strike rate at 3 miles+ and his strong performance over 3.5 miles under a big weight at Cheltenham in Nov. He didn’t have too many negatives other than a slightly higher than ideal weight to carry.
As a youngster he had very good form vs Denman. People overlooked him (until McCoy took the ride) because he ran poorly over hurdles at the Festival but, as Mon Mome should have reminded everyone last year, so long as there's been a strong performance in a 3 mile+ chase in the current season, a recent poor run doesn't necessarily matter.
Can’t quite believe it myself that its worked again this year – must crash and burn next time!
LOL. Sorry Chief. Will try harder.
Thanks for the tips on here, I actually had a few quid on the winner this year, as well... Cheers!
Damn! Should have taken the odds this morning ... All the prices shooted down before the off.
Well done on 5th, two from home he started to toil a bit, before then I thought the way he was jumping he was really going to challenge and bring home another big winner.
All went mental in the final hour as they usually do... Don't Push It started the day at 20 and was down to 12/1 SF before going up to 20/1 again and then in 15 minutes was in to 10/1 JF (as I thought might happen considering the Ruby Walsh debacle). Madness.
I'm also chuckling at Nathan, as i believe he bet on TWELVE horses but not the winner!!
I backed 3 of your 4 selections, couldn't justify paying up for all four. Guess which one I left out :-(
This is why I rarely gamble !
Cheers Chris
Not again AFKA? Didn't you duck Mon Mome last year aswell? That was my fault admittedly!
Cheers for the comment.
Cheers. Bud was going so well for such a long way. Glad that you got on DPI before the rush of loot this afternoon.
backed Don't Push It @ 20/1 £5 ew and Hello Bud @ 40/1 £5 ew
Don't know if Ladbrookes are paying out on 5th...but if not happy enough with the winner !!
Don't think Ladbrokes pay out on 5th place, the mean beggars.
"Always back Jonjo runners in staying chases that pulled up last time out especailly if AP was not in the plate on that occasion" ;-)
Well done again and enjoy both the financial rewards and plaudits for some top class research and analysis.
Your fellow made it past the water jump, that was quite a result ;o)