1) DEFINITLY RED (IRE) 9 11-10 165 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison
2) BRISTOL DE MAI (FR) 7 11-09 164 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies
3) EDWULF 9 11-09 164 J P McManus Joseph O'Brien IRE
4) OUTLANDER (IRE) 10 11-08 163 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
5) MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 8 11-07 162 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
6) BLAKLION 9 11-06 161 Simon Such & Gino Paletta Nigel Twiston-Davies
7) SUB LIEUTENANT (IRE) 9 11-05 160 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE
8) ANIBALE FLY (FR) 8 11-04 159 J P McManus Tony Martin IRE
9) THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 10 11-04 159 Paul & Clare Rooney Kim Bailey
10) MALA BEACH (IRE) 10 11-03 158 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE
11) VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 9 11-03 158 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE
12) AMERICAN (FR) 8 11-02 157 The Jago Family Partnership Harry Fry
13) TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 9 11-01 156 Slaneyville Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
14) ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 8 11-00 155 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
15) GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 8 11-00 155 John & Barbara Cotton Nicky Henderson
16) NOBLE ENDEAVOR (IRE) 9 10-13 154 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE
17) PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 11 10-13 154 ISL Recruitment Fergal O'Brien
18) SIZING CODELCO (IRE) 9 10-13 154 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Colin Tizzard
19) CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 10 10-12 153 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE
20) SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 8 10-12 153 Carl Hinchy Richard Hobson
21) CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 12 10-11 152 J P McManus John Kiely IRE
22) O O SEVEN (IRE) 8 10-11 152 Christopher Hanbury Nicky Henderson
23) TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 11 10-11 152 Boultbee Brooks Ltd Venetia Williams
24) GO CONQUER (IRE) 9 10-10 151 Paul & Clare Rooney Jonjo O'Neill
25) TRAFFIC FLUIDE (FR) 8 10-10 151 Galloping On The South Downs Partnership Gary Moore
26) VICENTE (FR) 9 10-10 151 Trevor Hemmings Paul Nicholls
27) ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (FR) 8 10-09 150 Slaneyville Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
28) RATHVINDEN (IRE) 10 10-09 150 Ronnie Bartlett Willie Mullins IRE
29) REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 10 10-09 150 J P McManus Anthony Honeyball
30) TIGER ROLL (IRE) 8 10-09 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
31) VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 9 10-09 150 Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent David Pipe
32) A GENIE IN ABOTTLE (IRE) 7 10-08 149 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
33) AS DE MEE (FR) 8 10-08 149 The Stewart Family & Judi Dench Paul Nicholls
34) CHASE THE SPUD 10 10-08 149 Christine Banks Fergal O'Brien
35) ROCK THE KASBAH (IRE) 8 10-08 149 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
36) SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 10 10-08 149 Quona Thomson Sandy Thomson
37) WARRIORS TALE 9 10-08 149 Michelle & Dan Macdonald Paul Nicholls
38) BELLSHILL (IRE) 8 10-07 148 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
39) FLYING ANGEL (IRE) 7 10-07 148 Rob Rexton Nigel Twiston-Davies
40) GAS LINE BOY (IRE) 12 10-07 148 The Three Graces Ian Williams
41) PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 10 10-07 148 Malcolm C Denmark Willie Mullins IRE
42) THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 8 10-07 148 SprayClad UK Colin Tizzard
43) BEEVES (IRE) 11 10-06 147 Paul & Clare Rooney Jennie Candlish
44) SAINT ARE (FR) 12 10-06 147 David Fox Tom George
45) UCELLO CONTI (FR) 10 10-06 147 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Gordon Elliott IRE
46) VYTA DU ROC (FR) 9 10-06 147 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson
47) CAROLE'S DESTRIER 10 10-05 146 Carole Skipworth Neil Mulholland
48) LONG HOUSE HALL (IRE) 10 10-05 146 Carl Hinchy Dan Skelton
49) POLIDAM (FR) 9 10-05 146 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Willie Mullins IRE
50) RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 13 10-05 146 James Swan Gavin Cromwell IRE
51) ABOLITIONIST (IRE) 10 10-04 145 Mark Albon, John Provan & Chris Stedman Dr Richard Newland
52) BAIE DES ILES (FR) 7 10-04 145 Zorka Wentworth Ross O'Sullivan IRE
53) BUYWISE (IRE) 11 10-04 145 T Hywel Jones Evan Williams
54) CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 8 10-04 145 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
55) I JUST KNOW (IRE) 8 10-04 145 M B Scholey & the late R H Scholey Sue Smith
56) MAGGIO (FR) 13 10-04 145 Douglas Pryde/James Beaumont Patrick Griffin IRE
57) PENDRA (IRE) 10 10-04 145 J P McManus Charlie Longsdon
58) VIRGILIO (FR) 9 10-04 145 C J Edwards, D Futter, A H Rushworth Dan Skelton
59) CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 9 10-03 144 Stuart Coltherd Stuart Coltherd
60) HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 11 10-03 144 Mrs Julian Blackwell Venetia Williams
61) LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) 12 10-03 144 Dr Ronan Lambe Jim Culloty IRE
62) SILSOL (GER) 9 10-03 144 Michelle & Dan Macdonald Paul Nicholls
63) THIRD INTENTION (IRE) 11 10-03 144 Robert & Sarah Tizzard Colin Tizzard
64) THREE FACES WEST (IRE) 10 10-03 144 Paul & Clare Rooney Philip Hobbs
65) WILD WEST WIND (IRE) 9 10-03 144 Simon Clarke Tom George
66) BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) 13 10-02 143 Adrian Butler & S P O'Connor Gordon Elliott IRE
67) DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 12 10-02 143 Options O Syndicate Nigel Twiston-Davies
68) FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 9 10-02 143 Corbett Stud David Dennis
69) MILANSBAR (IRE) 11 10-02 143 Robert Bothway Neil King
70) MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE) 11 10-02 143 Clipper Logistics Group Ltd Pat Fahy IRE
71) DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE) 8 10-01 142 McGoldrick Racing 3 Sue Smith
72) ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 11 10-01 142 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
73) THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE) 10 10-01 142 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
74) SAMETEGAL (FR) 9 10-00 141 John & Barbara Cotton Paul Nicholls
75) VINTAGE CLOUDS (IRE) 8 10-00 141 Trevor Hemmings Sue Smith
76) WALK IN THE MILL (FR) 8 10-00 141 Baroness Harding Robert Walford
77) GENERAL PRINCIPLE (IRE) 9 9-12 139 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
78) VIC DE TOUZAINE (FR) 9 9-12 139 Andrew Brooks & G Moore Venetia Williams
79) VIEUX MORVAN (FR) 9 9-12 139 M L Bloodstock Joseph O'Brien IRE
80) WOUNDED WARRIOR (IRE) 9 9-12 139 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
81) ARBRE DE VIE (FR) 8 9-11 138 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
82) BALLYALTON (IRE) 11 9-11 138 John Westwood Ian Williams
83) BONNY KATE (IRE) 8 9-11 138 Patricia Hunt Noel Meade IRE
84) COGRY 9 9-11 138 Graham & Alison Jelley Nigel Twiston-Davies
85) MISSED APPROACH (IRE) 8 9-11 138 Alan & Andrew Turner Warren Greatrex
86) MYSTEREE (IRE) 10 9-11 138 Mrs Lynne Maclennan Michael Scudamore
87) SIR MANGAN (IRE) 10 9-11 138 Frank McAleavy Dan Skelton
88) SPLASH OF GINGE 10 9-11 138 John Neild Nigel Twiston-Davies
89) BRAQUEUR D'OR (FR) 7 9-10 137 Corsellis & Seyfried Paul Nicholls
90) MINELLA DADDY (IRE) 8 9-10 137 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen
91) PAIROFBROWNEYES (IRE) 9 9-10 137 Fibbage Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
92) RELENTLESS DREAMER (IRE) 9 9-10 137 Nigel Morris Rebecca Curtis
93) KNOCK HOUSE (IRE) 9 9-09 136 Tim Leslie Donald McCain
94) THE YOUNG MASTER 9 9-08 135 Mike Burbidge & The Old Masters Neil Mulholland
95) ALFIE SPINNER (IRE) 13 9-06 133 Alan Beard & Brian Beard Kerry Lee
96) HENRI PARRY MORGAN 10 9-06 133 Ednyfed & Elizabeth Morgan Peter Bowen
97) PHIL'S MAGIC (IRE) 8 9-06 133 Lyreen Syndicate Tony Martin IRE
98) BRAVISSIMO (FR) 7 9-05 132 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
99) DANCING SHADOW (IRE) 9 9-05 132 The Dancing Shadows Victor Dartnall
100) ROGUE ANGEL (IRE) 10 9-05 132 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
101) THEBARROWMAN (IRE) 8 9-04 131 D Keys Adrian Keatley IRE
102) OUT SAM 9 9-03 130 D Charlesworth Gordon Elliott IRE
103) KRACKATOA KING 10 9-00 127 JC Harrison Lee & T Howard Partnership Kerry Lee
104) GOODTOKNOW 10 8-13 126 Burling Lee MacEchern Nolan Potter Kerry Lee
105) POORMANS HILL (IRE) 7 NQ 120 V Caldwell/Mrs K Caldwell Gordon Elliott IRE
3
Comments
For me, le mot juste is patience, for two reasons.
The weights could easily rise enough to change the complexion of the race..
• Definitly Red's priority is the GC and a decision on the Big One apparently won't be taken until after that - 4 week gap between the Festivals is obviously a plus but who knows.
• Bristol de Mai and Outlander are already effectively ruled out - targeted at the Bowl and Punchestown respectively.
• Though it would be akin to Aldaniti's win if he bagged the Big One, there has to be a doubt about the participation of Edwulf (also aimed first at Cheltenham)
It's a 3lb rise without the top 4 and Minella Rocco's indifferent form apparently continues to baffle Jonjo. Who knows if he’ll take his chance – it’s not like JP’s short of options.
Without him as well, it's a 4lb rise and Blaklion carries top-weight.
Secondly the weather. At current weights, Cause Of Causes is very tempting at 25/1 but his best chance is on decent ground, as last year. If it came up testing underfoot as it did 2 years ago, like Saint Are for me that year, I'd prefer others to him.
Nonetheless, I shall do my usual stat-crunching of the fancied and unfancied and try to seek out some weight- and weather-proof value.
Anyone got a reliable long-range forecast?
Love this thread - don't even like horse racing !!
See Gas Line Boy at 50s last year (5th); Vieux Lion Rouge at 66s 2016 (7th); even Tranquil Sea at 33s in 2015 (7th).
Obviously, the likes of Vics Canvas placed higher up, but still - why minimise chances?
https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/liverpool/l7-9/daily-weather-forecast/330510?day=60
'The right profile' says National winner Newland (who bought him with the GN as the target).
I agree and 10y-o ABOLITIONIST is first onto my slip at 33/1 (SkyBet NRNB 5 places 1/4)
3rd in the Irish National last April behind Grade 1 winner Our Duke - beaten but clattering the last under a lady conditional probably cost him 2nd.
From the family of quality 2-2.5 milers Merry Gale and Racing Demon but with Flemensfirth his sire and Roselier (2 GN and 5 Welsh or Scot Nat winners among his progeny) dam-sire, his pedigree screams stamina.
Yet to face the GN fences but most GN winners haven't beforehand.
Completed all 19 chases to date, making the frame in all 9 at 3m+ (won or <5L in 8 of them), including last season 2nd in the Troytown (behind Empire Of Dirt) and winning the Leinster National impressively. The way he finishes his races further suggests he may be at his best at well beyond 3m.
Handles any ground (raced all year round until 2016).
OR 145 for the GN (same mark as at Fairyhouse), currently meaning 10.04. No worries if that were up to 4lb higher.
51st on the card so highly likely to make the cut but SkyBet are NRNB.
More anon.
Let’s say I put some money on PM’s selection above at 33’s now. Then closer to the race it is backed into 20’s, is there a way I can arbitrage and de-risk my placed bet by using one of the exchanges, say Betfair, to lay off the risk and make a guaranteed return...?
If the answer is yes (which I think it is but my little brain struggles to think through permutations) then a) PM, do you think your tip will be backed heavily going forwards-maybe that is an impossible question but would be interested in your thoughts and b) can anyone go on Betfair and lay a bet or do you need a large account to do so?
Thanks.
Concern at lack of a recent run though?
You'd also need to lay place part in seperate market if you wanted to.
Anyone can open an account with Betfair so yes you will be able to arb should your selection shorten - to the extent that you could minimise your exposure or have a risk free bet by getting rid of all of your stake. You could possibly even have an "all green" book by laying enough back so you are guaranteed a win come what may.
The issue with doing so with the Grand National book on an exchange is that the market might not move as quickly or as far as you would like. The GN is so competitive as a race and exchange prices might be more competitive than bookmakers by virtue of the fact that a lot of bookies will be going "non runner no bet" (a couple are already) whereas the exchange book will never become that - so backers could lose their money without even getting a run on the exchange and for that reason layers can afford to offer more attractive prices generally speaking.
If you are really clever (and there is a degree of luck) you might be able to back a horse with a bookmaker who is offering "non runner no bet" (NRNB) and then lay it off at shorter on Betfair- if the horse doesn't run you get your money back with the bookie and also win with the lay on Betfair. However, as explained, you will need a decent bank to lay without having already backed the selection on Betfair e.g. £200 to lay a tenner @ 21 (20/1). But if you lay multiple selections on Betfair then your exposure will be reduced by each lay. If you have already backed that selection on Betfair then you only need that backers stake by way of exposure e.g. back at 21 for £10 and then lay at 14 means that you lose nothing should anything else win the race but that you win £70 (less commission) should your horse be first.
Where backing and laying really works is when you are on the right side of a "talking horse" - one that you back before it hacks up in one of its prep races. For example, had you managed to back Samcro at 17 (16/1) for £10 in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham you could now be in the position where you could have layed enough at 1.8 (4/5) that you would win £80 whatever the outcome of the race. Unfortunately, because of its competitive nature, you won't get such a dramatic swing on a runner in the GN (unless you are betting in running - see below) but it is possible for a horse to be backed at say 40 and it to end up at say 10 prior to the market being suspended.
One final thing to point out - on Betfair the antepost market is separate from the day of the race market. The former will be suspended once the final declarations are known and the day of the race market is set up i.e. 48 hours before the race. This is because of the different rules so far as NRNB is concerned so you won't be able to directly use your exposure on the original market when laying in the latter. However, it doesn't prevent you from laying in the day of the race market and you might even consider putting up a lay "keep" bet meaning that you want your lay bet to stand once the race is off so if your horse does go short you might get matched at the price you wanted to lay it at in running.
Hope this helps.
Currently 50s with Skybet.
As a dyed-in-the-wool value-seeking, each-way punter, like @PolzeathNick (but with a single-race anorak-like focus in contrast to his very impressive broader approach), what I love about the GN is that there is often extra value in the prices of lesser-fancied runners because of the hype over (and therefore "too short" prices for) more prominent, usually higher-rated ones (most ratings being derived from chases run at well less than 4m of course).
Rocketing prize-money in recent years and compression of the handicap (the GN is the only race in which the handicapper can alter the prevailing Ratings for the race, which he has done in previous years [less so this one] by knocking some weight off the highest-rated entrants with the aim of encouraging "better quality" runners) has accentuated this by attracting more top 3-milers to be entered.
So, almost by definition, my fancies don't tend to become a hot thing unless they go and win a big prep race. The last big market-mover was Don't Push It in 2010 [10/1 jt-fav winner] but he was still 80s on Betfair a fortnight before the race and it was AP picking him as his ride that caused the stampede .................I'm sure he'd seen my analysis though
My percentage approach is to have a portfolio of horses (typically 4) that I want running for me at the prices I've got and, personally, I wouldn't lay off the risk even if the chance arose. It's served me well over the years but there's more than one way to skin a bookie
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Blaklion's too short and I don't place any stock in NTD's (vaguely sacrilegious IMHO) Red Rum analogy and the "we'll ride him differently" blah blah - he didn't get home on decent ground with 11.01 and, while he may run another big one being held-up, there'll be no cigar with 11.06+).
However, while he won't be one of my team, there are much worse e/w candidates than The Last Samuri at 25s (still only a 10y-o). Like Raz De Maree, he was spooked last year when being stuck in the stupid tunnel they now have to go through to get to the track. No chance with Blakion at the weights in the Becher but it confirmed he's adept over the fences and he should be there or thereabouts off the same OR159 - though also unlikely to win. Has an interesting prep lined up in the Festival XC.
Having said what I did earlier, I'm struggling to fin anything to get too excited with lower down in the weights! I love Vicente but worry about his jumping and sounds like they are going to go for Scottish National again. Interesting that Hemmings has bought Warrior's Tale and he's one on my horizon at the moment. Probably best to let dust settle over the next few weeks and get extra places - though I see Paddy Power are already 1/5 first 6.
It also means spring is just around the corner and the US Masters isn't far away!
Special thanks to Peanuts for, once again, taking the time to pass on his thoughts and in depth expertise.