Bless The Wings took a heavy fall and Cause of Causes laboured badly, before pulling up (I think), in The Cross Country Chase today.
Assuming he's sound, I wouldn't worry too much about Bless The Wings for Aintree. It's in the book as a Fall but that was as unfortunate as they come - more a stumble. Till today he'd never F or UR in 44 chases. He looked really well up to that point and, as @PaddyP17 says, did a couple of improvised laps via the Guinness tent on his way back to the stables. More concerned about COC. Couldn't fancy him today because of the ground but that run was particularly disappointing. There were clearly some seriously testing patches on that course but will have to see if there's any other explanation. Tiger Roll, also with an Irish GN entry, ticked a few GN boxes today and put himself well and truly in the reckoning. Flat-bred like COC (and indeed Red Rum) but now best-price 16/1 NRNB - too short for my liking. Can't put my finger on it but I'm not convinced he's an Aintree horse - will probably look a right lemon come 14 April for saying that! Very nice prep for The Last Samuri of course. As always, a lot will depend on the ground at Aintree and where the cut is made. I shall be keeping a close eye on Final Nudge in the Kim Muir tomorrow (nice spin around, nothing fancy, will do). Seeyouatmidnight due for a spin sometime over the weekend. If it were to come up Soft (forecast seems to suggest it's possible), get ready for some history-making. Could see a 13 y-o win it for the first time since 1923 or a 7 y-o mare with a woman jockey (no 7y-o since 1940, no mare since 1951 and no woman jockey ever). It is the "Year of the Woman" after all, as Mrs Molloy keeps reminding me.
Hey @PeanutsMolloy, got a bit of winnings burning a hole in my pocket. I have backed 3 of your selections, apprehensive to back COC after this week. Do you think it still has a chance?
Sorry to be slow responding CHG. I've been busy trying to arrange the return of some property lost at Cheltenham, last seen in the hands of some Porsche-driving, city-slicker type going by the name of Bob. Hopefully, all shall be well by 3.45 this afternoon. Glad you're in the money Chief. Well done for evidently dodging my selections. The short answer to your question is "yes". According to the stats, he does still have a good chance if he is sound and has ground to suit. Having already backed him at 20s, it obviously wasn't comfortable to watch his PU in the XC and it does raise questions about his well-being - is he sound? Is he still game for the task? Maybe even Elliott couldn't answer both of those questions. Purely stats-wise, however, given his specific positives, it hasn't dented his GN winning profile. Nor does the fact that he'd line up only having had 2 poor runs this season (the other also on Soft). Naturally, you'd prefer him to have had a decent run but Auroras Encore won the 2013 GN at the end of a season in which he didn't make the frame or finish closer than 24L in 7 runs and, in the same year, Oscar Time (like COC a former GN runner-up) came alive on decent ground at Aintree to come home 4th, having had an equally poor season - not making the frame in 4 runs on Sft/Heavy and finishing last in both post-weight preps. These points apply equally to Saint Are, by the way. That said, there are still a lot of other moving parts. Not least: 1. The stat profiles of others continue to evolve and there are still some important preps to be run - weather-permitting. 2. The next forfeit stage occurs shortly (Tuesday week). Will those with newly-established decent profiles (Bellshill, Tiger Roll, Rathvinden) take their chance? Will the weights go up (and by how much)? Will those with good profiles down the weights make the cut? At the end of the day, whether guided by stats or not, it's a relative game and we're simply after the best 4 or 5 on the going to line up on the day. I'm happy with him on my slip NRNB but, given the uncertain weather outlook alone (accuweather currently forecasting half of 28 days to 14 April to have some degree of rainfall at Aintree, including on the Friday and Saturday of the GN meeting), if I hadn't backed COC already I probably wouldn't take the plunge right now, though I'd have been tempted when Bob's crew immediately pushed him out to 33/1 NRNB (back to 25s with them now but generally 16~20). Also, more bookies will go NRNB shortly and, in due course, more will offer 6 places. No reason to think any head of steam will develop for COC soon so time to keep powder dry in my view. As regards the others, as things stand, I'm happy with SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (NRNB) though he must have a run, of course, FINAL NUDGE (that was a good-enough prep) and BLESS THE WINGS (NRNB) (what might have been if he hadn't stumbled and departed in the XC - was going very nicely up front). But I'll be putting a cold towel round my head over the coming days and weeks and will give an update when things are a little clearer. Hope that helps, sort of.
Thanks Peanuts, very detailed and concise as usual. I’ll take your advice and wait for a bit and see how the land lies and when the offers start to come in. Ha, you have only loaned your money to Bob, you will have it back come mid April.
Sorry to be slow responding CHG. I've been busy trying to arrange the return of some property lost at Cheltenham, last seen in the hands of some Porsche-driving, city-slicker type going by the name of Bob. Hopefully, all shall be well by 3.45 this afternoon. Glad you're in the money Chief. Well done for evidently dodging my selections. The short answer to your question is "yes". According to the stats, he does still have a good chance if he is sound and has ground to suit. Having already backed him at 20s, it obviously wasn't comfortable to watch his PU in the XC and it does raise questions about his well-being - is he sound? Is he still game for the task? Maybe even Elliott couldn't answer both of those questions. Purely stats-wise, however, given his specific positives, it hasn't dented his GN winning profile. Nor does the fact that he'd line up only having had 2 poor runs this season (the other also on Soft). Naturally, you'd prefer him to have had a decent run but Auroras Encore won the 2013 GN at the end of a season in which he didn't make the frame or finish closer than 24L in 7 runs and, in the same year, Oscar Time (like COC a former GN runner-up) came alive on decent ground at Aintree to come home 4th, having had an equally poor season - not making the frame in 4 runs on Sft/Heavy and finishing last in both post-weight preps. These points apply equally to Saint Are, by the way. That said, there are still a lot of other moving parts. Not least: 1. The stat profiles of others continue to evolve and there are still some important preps to be run - weather-permitting. 2. The next forfeit stage occurs shortly (Tuesday week). Will those with newly-established decent profiles (Bellshill, Tiger Roll, Rathvinden) take their chance? Will the weights go up (and by how much)? Will those with good profiles down the weights make the cut? At the end of the day, whether guided by stats or not, it's a relative game and we're simply after the best 4 or 5 on the going to line up on the day. I'm happy with him on my slip NRNB but, given the uncertain weather outlook alone (accuweather currently forecasting half of 28 days to 14 April to have some degree of rainfall at Aintree, including on the Friday and Saturday of the GN meeting), if I hadn't backed COC already I probably wouldn't take the plunge right now, though I'd have been tempted when Bob's crew immediately pushed him out to 33/1 NRNB (back to 25s with them now but generally 16~20). Also, more bookies will go NRNB shortly and, in due course, more will offer 6 places. No reason to think any head of steam will develop for COC soon so time to keep powder dry in my view. As regards the others, as things stand, I'm happy with SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (NRNB) though he must have a run, of course, FINAL NUDGE (that was a good-enough prep) and BLESS THE WINGS (NRNB) (what might have been if he hadn't stumbled and departed in the XC - was going very nicely up front). But I'll be putting a cold towel round my head over the coming days and weeks and will give an update when things are a little clearer. Hope that helps, sort of.
City slicker type? Thanks Peanuts - for a 60 year old with grey hair and carrying a bit of extra timber I'm very happy with that description.
Porsche? No - but the country of origin is correct ;-)
P.S. your knowledge and insight on the GN is truly remarkable.
Sat down and had a good look through this race last night, and starting to warm to the idea of VIEUX LION ROUGE.
He has plenty of experience of these fences, indeed this will be his fifth spin round should he line up on the day. He was 7th as a seven year old in 2016, before winning the Becher eight months later.
Last year, he bit Blaklion in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, but looking at it again (and with the benefit of hindsight) I wonder whether 3.5m round Haydock bottomed him out? He was travelling very well before two out last year (sent of 12/1) before fading and coming home in sixth.
Now, looking at his season so far I can't help think that the Pipes have bought into the theory that they left their race at Haydock last year. It just screams that this year has been solely about one race, and one race only....the National.
He reappeared in the Charlie Hall, looking in need of the run when going well enough before finishing 4th. That race has worked out really well this year with the other finishers being Bristol De Mai, Blaklion, Definitly Red and Shantou Flyer.
He then ran round in the Becher, again looking in need of the run, and in the heavy ground that day, not being too taxed is no bad thing. Even better, he actually got dropped a few lbs as a result! They then skipped the Haydock National Trial that saw Blaklion finish legless, instead electing to go for a 3m handicap chase at Ascot on the same day. He ran a really nice race, staying on to nearly snatch 3rd, beaten just 12lengths.
He comes here off a mark just a pound higher than last year, and now a nine year old fits the profile for the race nicely. He's had 3 runs this season, looks to get a nice weight, has form over 3.5m+, and acts in big fields.
Considering he was sent of 12s last year, and goes off a similar mark this year and with everything geared towards this race...I was a bit taken aback to see him put in as a 40/1 shot!
As ever there is a downside.... he is officially wrong at the weights now, having been dropped to 147 after Ascot, and runs off 150 in the big race. But considering everything is geared towards this race I can let that go, especially at the prices!
I have just cashed out my NRNB bets on Saint Are and Final Nudge at 40 and 50/1 and put the cash out amount back on at 50 and 66/1. Even with a 10% cash out hit, the eventual returns would be higher. Unless I've got something really wrong...
Original top-weight Definitly Red scratched from the GN today - weights up at least 1lb. Edwulf (next in the weights) still in but trainer said this morning of his next possible engagement: "No plans yet. It's too early to say where we are going to go with him." Another 1lb rise if he comes out. Outlander (next in the weights) also still in but originally targeted at the Punchestown Gold Cup rather than Aintree. Another 1lb rise if he also came out. Next forfeit stage is next Tuesday. Sizing Codelco, Third Intention and Morning Assembly seemingly also unlikely to run. GN the target for Tiger Roll and still for Cause Of Causes, if fit and well - reported stiff and sore after his PU in the XC.
Original top-weight Definitly Red scratched from the GN today - weights up at least 1lb. Edwulf (next in the weights) still in but trainer said this morning of his next possible engagement: "No plans yet. It's too early to say where we are going to go with him." Another 1lb rise if he comes out. Outlander (next in the weights) also still in but originally targeted at the Punchestown Gold Cup rather than Aintree. Another 1lb rise if he also came out. Next forfeit stage is next Tuesday. Sizing Codelco, Third Intention and Morning Assembly seemingly also unlikely to run. GN the target for Tiger Roll and still for Cause Of Causes, if fit and well - reported stiff and sore after his PU in the XC.
Marathonbet are offering a big, big 33/1 on Tiger Roll (don't think NRNB though).
How does Vieux Lion Rouge measure om your model Peanuts?
I totally agree with you that he's good e/w value, even trimmed to 33s and I completely agree with your analysis except for one key thing. Clearly loves the place and to run as well as he did on soft as a 7 y-o was very promising but, for me, not quite getting home last year on decent ground puts him into strong run but no cigar territory. Appreciate your point about the Haydock prep. If you're right, he's got a great chance but I view him like Blaklion (though, unsurprisingly, I much prefer VLR's chances at the weights) as another one of those (like Big Fella Thanks) who will usually go great over the fences but only as far as the Elbow in the big one. Great place potential but likely to be one or more going past him at the finish. All about opinions!! .... and this one will no doubt come back to bite me in the butt
Yes that is the thing on my mind too about him staying the trip. Just trying to see if I could see anything to explain it! I guess Blaklion did a similar thing after running in the same race prior.
Think he's a solid ew proposition though. With the accounts I hit Skybet with I see they've cut him to 33s!!! Paddy Power are that price and first six so a trip round their shops looks on the cards!
Yes that is the thing on my mind too about him staying the trip. Just trying to see if I could see anything to explain it! I guess Blaklion did a similar thing after running in the same race prior.
Think he's a solid ew proposition though. With the accounts I hit Skybet with I see they've cut him to 33s!!! Paddy Power are that price and first six so a trip round their shops looks on the cards!
Totally agree. Overlooked and overpriced, certainly at 40s - but that's the GN. If I knew it would be decent ground on 14 April I'd be getting stuck into Saint Are at 66/1. Can't get my head around that price for him, but he was overlooked last year when he had his ground and ran another great race (none finishing faster). It is the received wisdom (and indeed statistically true) that the GN tends to be won by a race debutant (all of the last 8 winners were and 6 hadn't faced the fences before) but it's been such a weird run-up to the race and there are still so many variables (weights, intentions, fitness, making the cut, going) that it could be a stat-busting result this year (potentially a seriously funky one if it's on testing ground). Still a lot of moving parts.
PS Flying Angel seemingly out as well. Fingers crossed our fellas way down the weights get a chance
Not surprisingly, though it was a good enough run in the Kim Muir as a GN prep, Final Nudge's rating has been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper, meaning that he will likely be 3rd out of the 4 allotted OR143 for the GN come the cut - behind Bless The Wings and Milansbar (both unchanged - order determined by lot if necessary) and ahead of Double Ross (OR dropped 4lbs). So, after the 5 defections announced recently, Bless The Wings needs another 16 to come out to be guaranteed a run (but will EIlliott decide to send him to Fairyhouse on Easter Monday rather than take the chance?) and Final Nudge needs 17 to come out to get a run. Walk In The Mill currently needs 23 more to come out to be sure of making the cut. Touch and go for all of them. Next Tuesday will be interesting.
Seeyouatmidnight entered for Newbury and Ascot at the weekend - not ideal but no other options
Strewth - forfeit stage a week earlier than usual - usually 18 days prior. Cheers @PolzeathNick - glad one of us has got their wits about them. Good news indeed for the boys down the weights.
I don't know why people are so concerned about prices. A 2/1 winner is better than a 500/1 loser.
Of course it is. However, I'd like to invite you to consider PolzeathNick's/Peanuts'/my own maxim - and indeed MANY people's maxim:
Will a horse outrun its odds? More to the point - is a horse priced at, for instance, 50/1, going to win more than once every 50 times - and if so, how many more times?
So it's about the search for value. Hence why consideration of odds is crucial to our sort of philosophy. Also, offering odds for each-way placings is another factor - a horse at 50/1 with £10 each way (at a fifth of the odds) that comes third will pay out £110 - so that's a profit of £90, or a ROI of 450%, however you want to look at it.
I could go on - basically, to sum up, there's mathematical implications to consider.
Ultimately, price should be the main driver of your bet. It takes A LOT of discipline to let a horse you like go unbacked because you deem the price to be too short.
Just punting on horses regardless of price, will lead to ruin in the long run. Anything before that is just noise.
The hardest thing trying to explain to people about betting, is not to bet on the likeliest outcome, but on the one you deem likelier to happen than the odds suggest.
Now, value can mean different things to some people than others. There are plenty who argue, and indeed make good money, backing short priced horses...for instance if you think a horse is an even money shot and you can back it at 11/10 then it is a value bet. However, I find that playing at those sort of prices puts a hell of a lot of pressure on one to be right a lot of the time!
Perhaps you are better at this game than me and can make things pay at short prices. From a personal note I just looked at the average price I've bet over the last few years and it comes out at a shade over 12/1. I'll get more things wrong at those sort of prices, but I have to be right a lot less to make it pay!!!
And over time, you'll find you hone your judgement more and more and find bets that suit your mentality. I can quite happily go on a long losing run (well not that happily maybe!) as I'm confident that my methods work in the LONG-TERM. I personally don't garner much enjoyment from backing a horse at short odds, and then watch nervously to see how it goes. And equally I don't get much envy when seeing people celebrating as if they've won the lottery as Altior goes in at even money! But again, that is down to each individual.
If you need to feel the feeling of winning more often then obviously you need to be playing at shorter odds. But in my view you'll find it a lot harder to make the game pay.
I rarely gamble. I gave that up years ago. What i do now is matched betting. The National is my favourite race because it is easy to predict the horses that will be backed by the once a year brigade. Previous winners, big name jockey's, anything owned by the Queen, horses tipped in major newspapers etc. These can be backed early and layed off before the race for a profit. So i don't pay much attention to who will win. I am more interested in who will be heavily backed.
Ultimately, price should be the main driver of your bet. It takes A LOT of discipline to let a horse you like go unbacked because you deem the price to be too short.
Just punting on horses regardless of price, will lead to ruin in the long run. Anything before that is just noise.
The hardest thing trying to explain to people about betting, is not to bet on the likeliest outcome, but on the one you deem likelier to happen than the odds suggest.
Now, value can mean different things to some people than others. There are plenty who argue, and indeed make good money, backing short priced horses...for instance if you think a horse is an even money shot and you can back it at 11/10 then it is a value bet. However, I find that playing at those sort of prices puts a hell of a lot of pressure on one to be right a lot of the time!
Perhaps you are better at this game than me and can make things pay at short prices. From a personal note I just looked at the average price I've bet over the last few years and it comes out at a shade over 12/1. I'll get more things wrong at those sort of prices, but I have to be right a lot less to make it pay!!!
And over time, you'll find you hone your judgement more and more and find bets that suit your mentality. I can quite happily go on a long losing run (well not that happily maybe!) as I'm confident that my methods work in the LONG-TERM. I personally don't garner much enjoyment from backing a horse at short odds, and then watch nervously to see how it goes. And equally I don't get much envy when seeing people celebrating as if they've won the lottery as Altior goes in at even money! But again, that is down to each individual.
If you need to feel the feeling of winning more often then obviously you need to be playing at shorter odds. But in my view you'll find it a lot harder to make the game pay.
Absolutely spot on. The principles of bookmaking - lay under the odds - the principles of punting - back over the odds.
Some things are easier to spot than others though. If you offer me 11/10 on heads for the toss of a coin I will back it as I know for a fact I'm backing over the true odds (Evens). If there are 23 random people in a room and someone offers me evens that two or more share the same birthday (anniversary, not year) then I'll back it because I know the true odds are slightly odds-on. That's true odds, absolute probability.
On sporting events the prices on offer are not true odds, they are a combination of odds-compiler expert opinion, likely weight of money, and a theoretical margin built in. No absolute probabilities in sight. Of all sporting events, horse racing in my opinion is the hardest to compile. To be able to confidently identify those runners where the bookmaker is offering prices 'over the odds' the punter needs to be able to effectively price the race. Very few punters know whether or not a price on offer is under or over the 'odds' - most just make a selection and then back that selection. Some, like for example PolzeathNick and Peanuts, are able to effectively price a race so can pick value - but they are the exception.
Pricing a race quicker than a bookmaker is extremely difficult. I would be very interested in learning if anyone has any advice. But in a handicap every horse should have an equal chance of winning, so if there are ten runners anything priced above 9/1 should be value. Is that right or am i missing something?
Pricing a race quicker than a bookmaker is extremely difficult. I would be very interested in learning if anyone has any advice. But in a handicap every horse should have an equal chance of winning, so if there are ten runners anything priced above 9/1 should be value. Is that right or am i missing something?
"should" is the operative word. Horses act on different going over different courses and trips but the handicap mark takes no account of that. Some horses need a run or two to find their best form, others are best fresh. And the final element is whether connections are trying or just trying to get the horse's mark down to a level that it can win at.
Pricing a race quicker than a bookmaker is extremely difficult. I would be very interested in learning if anyone has any advice. But in a handicap every horse should have an equal chance of winning, so if there are ten runners anything priced above 9/1 should be value. Is that right or am i missing something?
It's an interesting point, and in theory yes, every horse should finish in a line. Obviously that never works out and that is then down to the nuances of individual horses and race conditions. You will get horses that are readily exposed, and the handicapper has a handle on their ability. And then younger up and coming horses that are still improving....think of novices in handicap hurdles as an example of this. Then you get horses that run well on different types of ground.... the list is endless!
I find an effective thing to do is to try and work out what a horses optimum conditions are. There are plenty of variables you can feed into this....freshness, field size, flat/undulating track, right/left handed track, ground, class of race. It's amazing how often you can find a horse running in unsuitable conditions at a short price....Apple's Jade a classic example last week, as she has a terrible record off a long break. Now I'm looking to get with her next time at hopefully inflated odds - the theory being that she will come on for the run, and hopefully recency bias in the minds of bookies (and other punters) will increase her odds to a backable price in my view. Cirrus Des Aigles on the flat was the ultimate horse for this game.
Interestingly, and albeit with a fair amount of form backfitting, Vieux Lion Rouge form on a flat track, in a double figure field off an eight week break or more reads.....111
Comments
It's in the book as a Fall but that was as unfortunate as they come - more a stumble. Till today he'd never F or UR in 44 chases. He looked really well up to that point and, as @PaddyP17 says, did a couple of improvised laps via the Guinness tent on his way back to the stables.
More concerned about COC. Couldn't fancy him today because of the ground but that run was particularly disappointing. There were clearly some seriously testing patches on that course but will have to see if there's any other explanation.
Tiger Roll, also with an Irish GN entry, ticked a few GN boxes today and put himself well and truly in the reckoning. Flat-bred like COC (and indeed Red Rum) but now best-price 16/1 NRNB - too short for my liking. Can't put my finger on it but I'm not convinced he's an Aintree horse - will probably look a right lemon come 14 April for saying that!
Very nice prep for The Last Samuri of course.
As always, a lot will depend on the ground at Aintree and where the cut is made.
I shall be keeping a close eye on Final Nudge in the Kim Muir tomorrow (nice spin around, nothing fancy, will do). Seeyouatmidnight due for a spin sometime over the weekend.
If it were to come up Soft (forecast seems to suggest it's possible), get ready for some history-making.
Could see a 13 y-o win it for the first time since 1923 or a 7 y-o mare with a woman jockey (no 7y-o since 1940, no mare since 1951 and no woman jockey ever).
It is the "Year of the Woman" after all, as Mrs Molloy keeps reminding me.
I've been busy trying to arrange the return of some property lost at Cheltenham, last seen in the hands of some Porsche-driving, city-slicker type going by the name of Bob. Hopefully, all shall be well by 3.45 this afternoon.
Glad you're in the money Chief. Well done for evidently dodging my selections.
The short answer to your question is "yes". According to the stats, he does still have a good chance if he is sound and has ground to suit.
Having already backed him at 20s, it obviously wasn't comfortable to watch his PU in the XC and it does raise questions about his well-being - is he sound? Is he still game for the task? Maybe even Elliott couldn't answer both of those questions.
Purely stats-wise, however, given his specific positives, it hasn't dented his GN winning profile.
Nor does the fact that he'd line up only having had 2 poor runs this season (the other also on Soft). Naturally, you'd prefer him to have had a decent run but Auroras Encore won the 2013 GN at the end of a season in which he didn't make the frame or finish closer than 24L in 7 runs and, in the same year, Oscar Time (like COC a former GN runner-up) came alive on decent ground at Aintree to come home 4th, having had an equally poor season - not making the frame in 4 runs on Sft/Heavy and finishing last in both post-weight preps.
These points apply equally to Saint Are, by the way.
That said, there are still a lot of other moving parts. Not least:
1. The stat profiles of others continue to evolve and there are still some important preps to be run - weather-permitting.
2. The next forfeit stage occurs shortly (Tuesday week). Will those with newly-established decent profiles (Bellshill, Tiger Roll, Rathvinden) take their chance? Will the weights go up (and by how much)? Will those with good profiles down the weights make the cut?
At the end of the day, whether guided by stats or not, it's a relative game and we're simply after the best 4 or 5 on the going to line up on the day.
I'm happy with him on my slip NRNB but, given the uncertain weather outlook alone (accuweather currently forecasting half of 28 days to 14 April to have some degree of rainfall at Aintree, including on the Friday and Saturday of the GN meeting), if I hadn't backed COC already I probably wouldn't take the plunge right now, though I'd have been tempted when Bob's crew immediately pushed him out to 33/1 NRNB (back to 25s with them now but generally 16~20).
Also, more bookies will go NRNB shortly and, in due course, more will offer 6 places. No reason to think any head of steam will develop for COC soon so time to keep powder dry in my view.
As regards the others, as things stand, I'm happy with SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (NRNB) though he must have a run, of course, FINAL NUDGE (that was a good-enough prep) and BLESS THE WINGS (NRNB) (what might have been if he hadn't stumbled and departed in the XC - was going very nicely up front).
But I'll be putting a cold towel round my head over the coming days and weeks and will give an update when things are a little clearer.
Hope that helps, sort of.
Ha, you have only loaned your money to Bob, you will have it back come mid April.
Porsche? No - but the country of origin is correct ;-)
P.S. your knowledge and insight on the GN is truly remarkable.
He has plenty of experience of these fences, indeed this will be his fifth spin round should he line up on the day. He was 7th as a seven year old in 2016, before winning the Becher eight months later.
Last year, he bit Blaklion in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, but looking at it again (and with the benefit of hindsight) I wonder whether 3.5m round Haydock bottomed him out? He was travelling very well before two out last year (sent of 12/1) before fading and coming home in sixth.
Now, looking at his season so far I can't help think that the Pipes have bought into the theory that they left their race at Haydock last year. It just screams that this year has been solely about one race, and one race only....the National.
He reappeared in the Charlie Hall, looking in need of the run when going well enough before finishing 4th. That race has worked out really well this year with the other finishers being Bristol De Mai, Blaklion, Definitly Red and Shantou Flyer.
He then ran round in the Becher, again looking in need of the run, and in the heavy ground that day, not being too taxed is no bad thing. Even better, he actually got dropped a few lbs as a result! They then skipped the Haydock National Trial that saw Blaklion finish legless, instead electing to go for a 3m handicap chase at Ascot on the same day. He ran a really nice race, staying on to nearly snatch 3rd, beaten just 12lengths.
He comes here off a mark just a pound higher than last year, and now a nine year old fits the profile for the race nicely. He's had 3 runs this season, looks to get a nice weight, has form over 3.5m+, and acts in big fields.
Considering he was sent of 12s last year, and goes off a similar mark this year and with everything geared towards this race...I was a bit taken aback to see him put in as a 40/1 shot!
As ever there is a downside.... he is officially wrong at the weights now, having been dropped to 147 after Ascot, and runs off 150 in the big race. But considering everything is geared towards this race I can let that go, especially at the prices!
Edwulf (next in the weights) still in but trainer said this morning of his next possible engagement: "No plans yet. It's too early to say where we are going to go with him." Another 1lb rise if he comes out.
Outlander (next in the weights) also still in but originally targeted at the Punchestown Gold Cup rather than Aintree. Another 1lb rise if he also came out.
Next forfeit stage is next Tuesday.
Sizing Codelco, Third Intention and Morning Assembly seemingly also unlikely to run.
GN the target for Tiger Roll and still for Cause Of Causes, if fit and well - reported stiff and sore after his PU in the XC.
Clearly loves the place and to run as well as he did on soft as a 7 y-o was very promising but, for me, not quite getting home last year on decent ground puts him into strong run but no cigar territory.
Appreciate your point about the Haydock prep. If you're right, he's got a great chance but I view him like Blaklion (though, unsurprisingly, I much prefer VLR's chances at the weights) as another one of those (like Big Fella Thanks) who will usually go great over the fences but only as far as the Elbow in the big one.
Great place potential but likely to be one or more going past him at the finish.
All about opinions!! .... and this one will no doubt come back to bite me in the butt
Think he's a solid ew proposition though. With the accounts I hit Skybet with I see they've cut him to 33s!!! Paddy Power are that price and first six so a trip round their shops looks on the cards!
It is the received wisdom (and indeed statistically true) that the GN tends to be won by a race debutant (all of the last 8 winners were and 6 hadn't faced the fences before) but it's been such a weird run-up to the race and there are still so many variables (weights, intentions, fitness, making the cut, going) that it could be a stat-busting result this year (potentially a seriously funky one if it's on testing ground).
Still a lot of moving parts.
PS Flying Angel seemingly out as well. Fingers crossed our fellas way down the weights get a chance
So, after the 5 defections announced recently, Bless The Wings needs another 16 to come out to be guaranteed a run (but will EIlliott decide to send him to Fairyhouse on Easter Monday rather than take the chance?) and Final Nudge needs 17 to come out to get a run.
Walk In The Mill currently needs 23 more to come out to be sure of making the cut.
Touch and go for all of them. Next Tuesday will be interesting.
Seeyouatmidnight entered for Newbury and Ascot at the weekend - not ideal but no other options
Bless the Wings #44
Final Nudge #46
Walk In The Mill #51
Looking at the top 40 reckon another half a dozen to come out. Maybe 8-10. Any idea how many came out after this stage last year?!
Think it'll be #50 or higher to get in.
Cheers @PolzeathNick - glad one of us has got their wits about them.
Good news indeed for the boys down the weights.
Will a horse outrun its odds? More to the point - is a horse priced at, for instance, 50/1, going to win more than once every 50 times - and if so, how many more times?
So it's about the search for value. Hence why consideration of odds is crucial to our sort of philosophy. Also, offering odds for each-way placings is another factor - a horse at 50/1 with £10 each way (at a fifth of the odds) that comes third will pay out £110 - so that's a profit of £90, or a ROI of 450%, however you want to look at it.
I could go on - basically, to sum up, there's mathematical implications to consider.
Just punting on horses regardless of price, will lead to ruin in the long run. Anything before that is just noise.
The hardest thing trying to explain to people about betting, is not to bet on the likeliest outcome, but on the one you deem likelier to happen than the odds suggest.
Now, value can mean different things to some people than others. There are plenty who argue, and indeed make good money, backing short priced horses...for instance if you think a horse is an even money shot and you can back it at 11/10 then it is a value bet. However, I find that playing at those sort of prices puts a hell of a lot of pressure on one to be right a lot of the time!
Perhaps you are better at this game than me and can make things pay at short prices. From a personal note I just looked at the average price I've bet over the last few years and it comes out at a shade over 12/1. I'll get more things wrong at those sort of prices, but I have to be right a lot less to make it pay!!!
And over time, you'll find you hone your judgement more and more and find bets that suit your mentality. I can quite happily go on a long losing run (well not that happily maybe!) as I'm confident that my methods work in the LONG-TERM. I personally don't garner much enjoyment from backing a horse at short odds, and then watch nervously to see how it goes. And equally I don't get much envy when seeing people celebrating as if they've won the lottery as Altior goes in at even money! But again, that is down to each individual.
If you need to feel the feeling of winning more often then obviously you need to be playing at shorter odds. But in my view you'll find it a lot harder to make the game pay.
Some things are easier to spot than others though. If you offer me 11/10 on heads for the toss of a coin I will back it as I know for a fact I'm backing over the true odds (Evens). If there are 23 random people in a room and someone offers me evens that two or more share the same birthday (anniversary, not year) then I'll back it because I know the true odds are slightly odds-on. That's true odds, absolute probability.
On sporting events the prices on offer are not true odds, they are a combination of odds-compiler expert opinion, likely weight of money, and a theoretical margin built in. No absolute probabilities in sight. Of all sporting events, horse racing in my opinion is the hardest to compile. To be able to confidently identify those runners where the bookmaker is offering prices 'over the odds' the punter needs to be able to effectively price the race. Very few punters know whether or not a price on offer is under or over the 'odds' - most just make a selection and then back that selection. Some, like for example PolzeathNick and Peanuts, are able to effectively price a race so can pick value - but they are the exception.
I find an effective thing to do is to try and work out what a horses optimum conditions are. There are plenty of variables you can feed into this....freshness, field size, flat/undulating track, right/left handed track, ground, class of race. It's amazing how often you can find a horse running in unsuitable conditions at a short price....Apple's Jade a classic example last week, as she has a terrible record off a long break. Now I'm looking to get with her next time at hopefully inflated odds - the theory being that she will come on for the run, and hopefully recency bias in the minds of bookies (and other punters) will increase her odds to a backable price in my view. Cirrus Des Aigles on the flat was the ultimate horse for this game.
Interestingly, and albeit with a fair amount of form backfitting, Vieux Lion Rouge form on a flat track, in a double figure field off an eight week break or more reads.....111