Ultimately, price should be the main driver of your bet. It takes A LOT of discipline to let a horse you like go unbacked because you deem the price to be too short.
Just punting on horses regardless of price, will lead to ruin in the long run. Anything before that is just noise.
The hardest thing trying to explain to people about betting, is not to bet on the likeliest outcome, but on the one you deem likelier to happen than the odds suggest.
Now, value can mean different things to some people than others. There are plenty who argue, and indeed make good money, backing short priced horses...for instance if you think a horse is an even money shot and you can back it at 11/10 then it is a value bet. However, I find that playing at those sort of prices puts a hell of a lot of pressure on one to be right a lot of the time!
Perhaps you are better at this game than me and can make things pay at short prices. From a personal note I just looked at the average price I've bet over the last few years and it comes out at a shade over 12/1. I'll get more things wrong at those sort of prices, but I have to be right a lot less to make it pay!!!
And over time, you'll find you hone your judgement more and more and find bets that suit your mentality. I can quite happily go on a long losing run (well not that happily maybe!) as I'm confident that my methods work in the LONG-TERM. I personally don't garner much enjoyment from backing a horse at short odds, and then watch nervously to see how it goes. And equally I don't get much envy when seeing people celebrating as if they've won the lottery as Altior goes in at even money! But again, that is down to each individual.
If you need to feel the feeling of winning more often then obviously you need to be playing at shorter odds. But in my view you'll find it a lot harder to make the game pay.
Absolutely spot on. The principles of bookmaking - lay under the odds - the principles of punting - back over the odds.
Some things are easier to spot than others though. If you offer me 11/10 on heads for the toss of a coin I will back it as I know for a fact I'm backing over the true odds (Evens). If there are 23 random people in a room and someone offers me evens that two or more share the same birthday (anniversary, not year) then I'll back it because I know the true odds are slightly odds-on. That's true odds, absolute probability.
On sporting events the prices on offer are not true odds, they are a combination of odds-compiler expert opinion, likely weight of money, and a theoretical margin built in. No absolute probabilities in sight. Of all sporting events, horse racing in my opinion is the hardest to compile. To be able to confidently identify those runners where the bookmaker is offering prices 'over the odds' the punter needs to be able to effectively price the race. Very few punters know whether or not a price on offer is under or over the 'odds' - most just make a selection and then back that selection. Some, like for example PolzeathNick and Peanuts, are able to effectively price a race so can pick value - but they are the exception.
I'm very flattered @bobmunro but I ain’t in @PolzeathNick 's league (or that of other luminaries of the CL racing threads) when it comes to pricing a race. From what I can see, @PolzeathNick ‘s ratings are so astute he should be the next handicapper. I'm simply a one-trick pony and am essentially a trend-following GN anorak. My data sample is a tad unconventional as it considers near-misses and not just winners and this means that I may back horses that appear to buck the trend (e.g. Mon Mome [French-bred], Don't Push It [unloved at 80s before AP got on board 11 days before the race and thought by trend-followers at the time to have too much weight with 11.05] and Vic Canvas [too old at 13]). That may have further inflated their odds but, fundamentally, what really makes for value opportunities in the GN, as has been said, is the volume of money behind many of the higher-profile horses, simply because many seasoned punters can't seem to imagine classier, Grade 1 horses ever being beaten by dour sub-150 handicappers, especially when Phil hands them an advantage. Even great trainers (great at their thing for 364 other days in the year) simply don’t get what makes for a GN contender. Nicky Henderson's asserted for years that it’s a good 2.5 miler - and how's that worked for you then Nicky? A bit of a simplistic explanation but you get my drift. Anyway, just dodging the well-fancied no-hopers is one thing – making a return from the others still takes a little doing. Back to work and more anon.
Cause of Causes unlikely to run, according to JP's racing manager. Blaklion's had a small wind op, post-Haydock. ....clutching at straws Nigel.
Interesting news. Backed Cause Of Causes last year, and was reluctantly planning on backing him again this year despite his Cheltenham run. Presumably, something has come to light from that run.
More importantly though, he's one more out of the way for Walk In The Mill to get in the race. Interestingly, been matched on a load of lays on him down to 220 on Betfair the other day, so nearly in for a free shot at c.10k!
With you and can't have Blaklion on my mind. That last run will have bottomed him, and no wind op is going to fix that!
Chipping away at Vieux Lion Rouge is my current project. Though the Lincoln tomorrow has been a bit of a distraction!
This is the time of year I take an unusually keen interest in the weather forecast for the North West. Here's how Accuweather sees the next few weeks at Aintree:
Last 8 days of March: rainfall on 7 days (in aggregate 43mm), daily high temp 7-11 degs. First 7 days of April: rainfall on 4 days (total 19mm), daily high temp 9-12 degs. Most days cloudy, 1 day sunny. Week of GN meeting: rainfall on Thurs & Frid (total 7mm), daily high temp 9-10 degs. Most days cloudy, 1 day predominantly sunny
Now weather forecasts are about as reliable as my Cheltenham selections. However, bearing in mind the cold, wet few weeks we've just had, it seems to me that the ground for the GN meeting is unlikely to be as good as last year (GS, Good places going stick 6.6), when One For Arthur won in a time just fast of standard. It may still be decent ground (perhaps properly GS) with a horse's ability to travel and jump at a decent clip a must but, with the unsettled weather forecast to be about around the time of the meeting, there is certainly a risk of softer, perhaps testing ground. With that in mind, let alone with the doubts over his fitness, got to say I'm relieved that Cause Of Causes is unlikely to run and, when Bob gets his act together, I'll see my stake returned.
So where to from here?
Especially after Tuesday's significant defections, I'm very happy with BLESS THE WINGS (50/1 e/w NRNB) and FINAL NUDGE (66/1 e/w). Both versatile as regards likely ground and looking very likely to make the cut at #44 and #46 (barring injury, Final Nudge will certainly be declared, so a return of stake if he doesn't get in). SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (33/1 NRNB) has a big day today of course and does look very nicely weighted. The big concern, given that he's been forced to wait for his return to the track to just 3 weeks before the big day, is the possible "bounce". Providing he runs respectably today, I'll be happy to be taking the chance.
Having re-assessed the likely field with almost all preps run, using some key stats and the old nose, I think there are several seriously good value each-way propositions this year, some more ground dependent than others, and definite potential for the biggest shock since Mon Mome.
Nice enough spin for Seeyouatmidnight in the 2.5m chase at Newbury. Understandably keen at the start and set a decent pace, jumped Newbury's stiff fences nicely, done by a couple of lighter-weighted rivals staying on from the rear. Held on gamely for 3rd.
There’s been plenty of moving parts to this GN in recent weeks, and there still are a few (crucially the weather, intentions and the cut), but with preps now run the picture’s beginning to take final shape. With Cause Of Causes a likely non-runner, I’ve got a decent chunk of cash returning to deploy. So, which lights are now flashing temptingly on my radar screen? Firstly, those among the market’s fancies which are not: Blaklion – loves the GN course and could well run a big race again but he didn’t see out the trip last time and finite stamina exposed last run over 6f less on Haydock heavy. Despite being a year older, a wind op and no doubt ridden less aggressively this time, with 8lbs more (11.09) and on likely softer going, it’s again “no cigar” in my view. Total Recall – relatively unexposed when joining Mullins, capitalising with 3 good wins including the Hennessy with 10.08 on decent ground. Carrying 11.04 in the GN is a different proposition. Ran nicely in the GC but had come off the bridle and, to my eyes, wasn’t making much headway on the leaders when departing 4 out. That unexcused fall cooks his GN goose. Anibale Fly (may run at Fairyhouse not Aintree) – excellent win in December’s Paddy Power handicap and a fine 3rd in the GC, though perhaps a little flattered by the 8L margin (the pace-setting principals tiring up the hill). Not enough elsewhere in his profile to suggest he can carry 11.07 to win a GN – minor honours possibly. Minella Rocco – winner of a high quality 4m Novice Chase at the Festival (Native River behind) and an excellent close 2nd in arguably the best GC for years. A high-class stayer but has struggled this season and, despite a wind op since falling in the Irish GC (last outing – bad stat), his profile isn’t strong enough to carry top weight in this GN, in my view. The Last Samuri – loves the course and could put in a bold show if the ground is slower than last year. Though 3lbs less to carry this time, the stats suggest it’s still too much for him to bag the prize – place potential at best.
UPDATED SHORT LIST Existing interests in Final Nudge (66/1), Bless The Wings (50/1 NRNB) and Seeyouatmidnight (33/1 NRNB) – all pretty versatile as to going
What to add? The possibles according to my stats and nose: Tiger Roll (14/1) – his win in the Festival XC on atrocious ground boosted his GN stat-profile and he’s the one at the head of the market that, in my view, could win it, with a very winnable-with 10.12. Stamina box also ticked by win, at previous Cheltenham, in the Novice 4m chase; good win/near-miss rate in 3m+ chases and versatile as to going. However, I’ll consider whether to back him nearer the day depending on the ground and others’ relative chances. He didn’t convince when debuting around the XC course in December. It was no doubt just a “sighter” for the Festival but he made several blunders and was soundly beaten that day by Bless The Wings (Tiger Roll also PU’d in last year’s Irish National, in which BTW was 2nd) and I’m not convinced he’ll readily take to the GN fences at the first time of asking. With BTW likely to run and on my slip at 50/1 (twice Irish National 2nd, excellent 2nd to Cause of Causes in the XC at last year’s Festival at level weights, has experience over the GN fences and, despite his mileage and age (Vics Canvas ran a blinder in the 2016 GN as a teenager), appears in as good form as ever – was going sweetly up front in the XC before an unfortunate stumble), I may well take a chance and leave Tiger Roll on my bench if the ground is soft enough to help several sexy long-shots. Of the others, the following (in card order) have profiles to go really well if they get their preferred ground on 14 April: Winning Potential • RATHVINDEN (20/1 NRNB) – 10 year-old winner of the 4m novice chase (32 days prior) but finished very tired and Mullins has talked of next year’s GN • SAINT ARE (66/1 NRNB) – but must have decent ground (“Good” in the description, as last year) • RAZ DE MAREE (50/1, 40/1 NRNB) – must have Soft or worse for winning chance • HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (125/1, 100/1 NRNB) – #41 currently - needs GS or softer for winning chance (just ran a nice prep in first-time blinkers - I'm having a deja-vu )) • MILANSBAR (50/1 NRNB) – #45 and should get a run - the softer the better • VINTAGE CLOUDS (50/1, 33/1 NRNB) – #52, so touch and go whether he makes the cut - GS or softer preferred (jumping potentially an issue if quick pace)
Strong Place Potential • REGAL ENCORE (33/1 NRNB) • I JUST KNOW (50/1, 40/1 NRNB) • DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (66/1 NRNB) - #49
Mentioned in Dispatches • Gas Line Boy (33/1), Ucello Conti (33/1), Baie Des Iles (50/1 - strong place potential if Soft or Heavy)
More anon. Keeping a close eye on the weather forecast.
Peanuts is Bless the Wings a confirmed runner yef? Odds?
50/1 NRNB 5 places 1/4 odds with Bet365 or SkyBet.
Racing Post reported last Tuesday:
"Gordon Elliott, fresh from being crowned top trainer at the Cheltenham Festival for the second year in a row, aims to have four runners in a race he won with Silver Birch in 2007.
Cross Country Chase winner Tiger Roll and last year's Grand National runner-up Cause Of Causes – pulled up behind Tiger Roll last week at Cheltenham – are to be joined by Bless The Wings and Ucello Conti.
Elliott said: "A lack of concentration caused Bless The Wings to fall at Cheltenham last week and he's in great form, while Ucello Conti was travelling very well when he came down in the National last year."
The Sportsman reported last Wednesday:
"Gordon Elliott has reported Bless The Wings to be in "great form" following his fall in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last week, and the 13-year-old is all set for his first tilt at the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree on April 14. A prominent figure through the early stages of the Cross Country, Elliott's veteran stumbled and sent Davy Russell out the side door at the Cheese Wedges, but Elliott, who saddled eight winners at last week's Cheltenham Festival, has said that it was just a lack of concentration from his stable stalwart that forced him to take a dodgy step, and that there's not a bother him as the Irish handler looks to get him ready for a tilt at the Merseyside marathon next month."
The one i have been looking at is the Dutchman. He has a good weight, likely to stay the distance, can run on any ground and won the Peter Marsh by 13 lengths.
Cause Of Causes definitely out of GN, done for the season, The Irish Times reports: “The intention was to go to Liverpool but he won’t be going. He got jarred up (at Cheltenham). He’s not too bad but he won’t be right for this season,” said McManus’s racing manager, Frank Berry, on Monday.
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Whilst the price hasn't exactly collapsed yet (best price 25/1) the horse has come out of its run well, trainer is very bullish about its chances and it definitely runs - unless it does something silly liking stepping on a stone!
FWIW I do some rudimentary stats for the race (not in the same league as Peanuts who rightly takes into account placed horses etc....)
Aged 8-11 At least 10 runs over fences Won over 3m or more Placed over 3m+ RPR 148+ over fences Difference of 4+ between RPR and OR Finished in first 5 in last two completions 3-6 runs that season Won in a 14+ field Placed in an 18+ field Run in last 8 weeks
I've applied these to the field, estimating that anything sub-140 won't be getting in. This leaves us with...
BLAKLION ANIBALE FLY THE LAST SAMURI VICENTE TIGER ROLL REGAL ENCORE VIEUX LION ROUGE HOUBLON DES OBEAUX THUNDER AND ROSES
I'm happy to take on the top 3, who are all running off 159-161 (Anibale fly could win off that sort of mark, but may be going to Irish National, and in back of my mind that was a hard race in the Gold Cup so not sure about him following up)
Vicente sounds like he's not going to run unless it really is properly good ground...which is unlikely. His target is a third Scottish National.
Houblon Des Obeaux has had 38 chase starts which probably marks him down as too exposed. And Thunder And Roses last two runs are a P and a F which isn't the profile of a National winner.
So, my stats come down to
TIGER ROLL REGAL ENCORE VIEUX LION ROUGE
Regal Encore is a horse that I just can't get a handle on in his form in terms of trying to spot some sort of pattern. He does seem to find it difficult to back up a win though so winning his last start at Ascot may mean his race was run there rather than at Aintree.
So, I am left with TIGER ROLL and VIEUX LION ROUGE. The former is a horse I love, and he seems to have the ideal profile of a National winner. The issue I have is that I think he's best on undulating tracks. Indeed his only win on a flat track is in a Beginners Chase at Ballinrobe in May 2016, where he beat the now 116 rated Buster Dan Dan! So, I'm just not sure that this track is going to suit.
So, my main bet in the race is VIEUX LION ROUGE. He's had two attempts at the race already finishing 7th and 6th, and has seemingly faded before. But the first of those was a 7yo (too young) and last year he had a hard race at Haydock over 3.5m 7 weeks beforehand, and the ground came up quick on the day (time was faster than standard).
He now comes to the race as a 9yo (perfect age), having had 13 chase runs (ideal experience), he's won over 3m4.5f so the distance is within his compass, running off 150 carrying 10-12 (perfect range), had 3 starts this season (nice prep) and has won in big fields!
His form on flat tracks off an eight week break in double figure fields reads 111. And his run last time was full of promise as he stayed on nicely over an inadequate three miles to nearly snatch third on the line. I've rated him 160 previously so I think a mark of 150 is still workable.
With the bad weather around I think the ground may come up softer than last year and that should suit him fine and with his experience over the National fences he looks sure to run a decent race. He can certainly hit the frame. He's 40s but only four places, but 33/1 ew 1/4 first 5 is out there, as well is 1/5 first 6. I'm having a right lash at him and will be as more places come out.
In terms of a stat buster the one I'm most interested in is UCELLO CONTI. He has run big races in staying handicaps, and was 2nd to Anibale Fly at Christmas, yet is set to run here off just a 2lb higher mark. Back in Dec '16 he was 4th in the Becher beaten just 2.5L by the aforementioned Vieux Lion Rouge, and with subsequent National winner One For Arthur a neck behind him in 5th. He's set to race off a 1lb lower mark, and for all that he busts a few stats, being trained by Gordon Elliott I can be more flexible!
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Whilst the price hasn't exactly collapsed yet (best price 25/1) the horse has come out of its run well, trainer is very bullish about its chances and it definitely runs - unless it does something silly liking stepping on a stone!
Trainer is bullish @Addick Addict but he did say after Newbury that SYAM wasn't as far along as he'd thought. Despite travelling and jumping nicely, he clearly needed the run. That's totally understandable of course but I fear it may prove to be that the weather-enforced 3 week delay in his return to the track could be costly on 14 April. With a run in early March, he could have brought him on meaningfully with serious work at home and a racecourse gallop or two. By the time he's OK to work after Saturday, I'm not sure fitness will quite be there for the test of a GN. On paper he's definitely got what it takes and has a very winnable-with weight but I must confess I'm mulling over cashing-out.
As regards Regal Encore I fully agree with you polzeathnick when trying to read and work out his form But from having horses in the stable this horses aim has been this years National since it finished last years and they also have the jockey they have wanted on him too now
FWIW I do some rudimentary stats for the race (not in the same league as Peanuts who rightly takes into account placed horses etc....)
Aged 8-11 At least 10 runs over fences Won over 3m or more Placed over 3m+ RPR 148+ over fences Difference of 4+ between RPR and OR Finished in first 5 in last two completions 3-6 runs that season Won in a 14+ field Placed in an 18+ field Run in last 8 weeks
I've applied these to the field, estimating that anything sub-140 won't be getting in. This leaves us with...
BLAKLION ANIBALE FLY THE LAST SAMURI VICENTE TIGER ROLL REGAL ENCORE VIEUX LION ROUGE HOUBLON DES OBEAUX THUNDER AND ROSES
I'm happy to take on the top 3, who are all running off 159-161 (Anibale fly could win off that sort of mark, but may be going to Irish National, and in back of my mind that was a hard race in the Gold Cup so not sure about him following up)
Vicente sounds like he's not going to run unless it really is properly good ground...which is unlikely. His target is a third Scottish National.
Houblon Des Obeaux has had 38 chase starts which probably marks him down as too exposed. And Thunder And Roses last two runs are a P and a F which isn't the profile of a National winner.
So, my stats come down to
TIGER ROLL REGAL ENCORE VIEUX LION ROUGE
Regal Encore is a horse that I just can't get a handle on in his form in terms of trying to spot some sort of pattern. He does seem to find it difficult to back up a win though so winning his last start at Ascot may mean his race was run there rather than at Aintree.
So, I am left with TIGER ROLL and VIEUX LION ROUGE. The former is a horse I love, and he seems to have the ideal profile of a National winner. The issue I have is that I think he's best on undulating tracks. Indeed his only win on a flat track is in a Beginners Chase at Ballinrobe in May 2016, where he beat the now 116 rated Buster Dan Dan! So, I'm just not sure that this track is going to suit.
So, my main bet in the race is VIEUX LION ROUGE. He's had two attempts at the race already finishing 7th and 6th, and has seemingly faded before. But the first of those was a 7yo (too young) and last year he had a hard race at Haydock over 3.5m 7 weeks beforehand, and the ground came up quick on the day (time was faster than standard).
He now comes to the race as a 9yo (perfect age), having had 13 chase runs (ideal experience), he's won over 3m4.5f so the distance is within his compass, running off 150 carrying 10-12 (perfect range), had 3 starts this season (nice prep) and has won in big fields!
His form on flat tracks off an eight week break in double figure fields reads 111. And his run last time was full of promise as he stayed on nicely over an inadequate three miles to nearly snatch third on the line. I've rated him 160 previously so I think a mark of 150 is still workable.
With the bad weather around I think the ground may come up softer than last year and that should suit him fine and with his experience over the National fences he looks sure to run a decent race. He can certainly hit the frame. He's 40s but only four places, but 33/1 ew 1/4 first 5 is out there, as well is 1/5 first 6. I'm having a right lash at him and will be as more places come out.
In terms of a stat buster the one I'm most interested in is UCELLO CONTI. He has run big races in staying handicaps, and was 2nd to Anibale Fly at Christmas, yet is set to run here off just a 2lb higher mark. Back in Dec '16 he was 4th in the Becher beaten just 2.5L by the aforementioned Vieux Lion Rouge, and with subsequent National winner One For Arthur a neck behind him in 5th. He's set to race off a 1lb lower mark, and for all that he busts a few stats, being trained by Gordon Elliott I can be more flexible!
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Whilst the price hasn't exactly collapsed yet (best price 25/1) the horse has come out of its run well, trainer is very bullish about its chances and it definitely runs - unless it does something silly liking stepping on a stone!
Trainer is bullish @Addick Addict but he did say after Newbury that SYAM wasn't as far along as he'd thought. Despite travelling and jumping nicely, he clearly needed the run. That's totally understandable of course but I fear it may prove to be that the weather-enforced 3 week delay in his return to the track could be costly on 14 April. With a run in early March, he could have brought him on meaningfully with serious work at home and a racecourse gallop or two. By the time he's OK to work after Saturday, I'm not sure fitness will quite be there for the test of a GN. On paper he's definitely got what it takes and has a very winnable-with weight but I must confess I'm mulling over cashing-out.
Excellent points PM but I would hope that these stats and the trainers comments, so far as the need for a run is concerned, will allay those fears:
After 227 days break - 1/11 After 53 days break - 1/5 After 316 days break - 2/6 After 242 days break - 3/6 After 57 days break - 1/3 After 197 days break - 1/2 (Beat Bristol De Mai) After 126 days break - 2/8 After 364 days break - 3/7
In yesterday's RP Thompson said:
"While the first two horses went away from him, Danny said the fourth was never going to get past him. He came back and had a good blow, but wasn't legless, which is what we wanted..........There is a real possibility he goes there with a great chance."
I'm also not a great believer in Mordin's "bounce factor" mainly because I think that it is used as the obvious excuse for a horse's poor run second time after a break.
I have been trying to find on Coral the list and cant, dont know if i am being stupid as surely it should be on there by now? Or shall i just bet some on skybet
I have been trying to find on Coral the list and cant, dont know if i am being stupid as surely it should be on there by now? Or shall i just bet some on skybet
You can also use this to compare the odds and then click on the bookmaker of your choice:
I have been trying to find on Coral the list and cant, dont know if i am being stupid as surely it should be on there by now? Or shall i just bet some on skybet
You can also use this to compare the odds and then click on the bookmaker of your choice:
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Whilst the price hasn't exactly collapsed yet (best price 25/1) the horse has come out of its run well, trainer is very bullish about its chances and it definitely runs - unless it does something silly liking stepping on a stone!
Trainer is bullish @Addick Addict but he did say after Newbury that SYAM wasn't as far along as he'd thought. Despite travelling and jumping nicely, he clearly needed the run. That's totally understandable of course but I fear it may prove to be that the weather-enforced 3 week delay in his return to the track could be costly on 14 April. With a run in early March, he could have brought him on meaningfully with serious work at home and a racecourse gallop or two. By the time he's OK to work after Saturday, I'm not sure fitness will quite be there for the test of a GN. On paper he's definitely got what it takes and has a very winnable-with weight but I must confess I'm mulling over cashing-out.
Excellent points PM but I would hope that these stats and the trainers comments, so far as the need for a run is concerned, will allay those fears:
After 227 days break - 1/11 After 53 days break - 1/5 After 316 days break - 2/6 After 242 days break - 3/6 After 57 days break - 1/3 After 197 days break - 1/2 (Beat Bristol De Mai) After 126 days break - 2/8 After 364 days break - 3/7
In yesterday's RP Thompson said:
"While the first two horses went away from him, Danny said the fourth was never going to get past him. He came back and had a good blow, but wasn't legless, which is what we wanted..........There is a real possibility he goes there with a great chance."
I'm also not a great believer in Mordin's "bounce factor" mainly because I think that it is used as the obvious excuse for a horse's poor run second time after a break.
Yeap, agreed. Just mulling at the mo. Just to point out, however, his next run after bashing Bristol De Mai after that 197 day break was 20 days later and he PUd 5 out in the Betfair Chase
Just a little stat-lette to chew on, which I think I trotted out before the 2016 GN, run on testing ground. In the 6 GNs since 1989 to be run on Soft or worse (or on materially rain-softened ground, i.e. 2009), all 6 winners and 11 of the 12 finishing 2nd or 3rd had won or made the frame in a Class 1 (or then equivalent) chase at 29f+. Only The Last Samuri hadn't and he had never raced beyond 26f but had exceptional consistency at 3m+ (winning or placed in 7 of his 8 chases - the only "miss" being when hampered and unseating when going well late on).
EDIT - that excludes the Red Marauder farce in 2001, of course, when 4 finished but only 2 without having fallen and been remounted.
The more i look at it the more i dont have a clue.
So many good tipsters here, hard to decide at present who i'm backing. Also not sure if better just to do on the day as normal, but seems i might miss out on some value.
Comments
I'm simply a one-trick pony and am essentially a trend-following GN anorak. My data sample is a tad unconventional as it considers near-misses and not just winners and this means that I may back horses that appear to buck the trend (e.g. Mon Mome [French-bred], Don't Push It [unloved at 80s before AP got on board 11 days before the race and thought by trend-followers at the time to have too much weight with 11.05] and Vic Canvas [too old at 13]).
That may have further inflated their odds but, fundamentally, what really makes for value opportunities in the GN, as has been said, is the volume of money behind many of the higher-profile horses, simply because many seasoned punters can't seem to imagine classier, Grade 1 horses ever being beaten by dour sub-150 handicappers, especially when Phil hands them an advantage. Even great trainers (great at their thing for 364 other days in the year) simply don’t get what makes for a GN contender. Nicky Henderson's asserted for years that it’s a good 2.5 miler - and how's that worked for you then Nicky?
A bit of a simplistic explanation but you get my drift.
Anyway, just dodging the well-fancied no-hopers is one thing – making a return from the others still takes a little doing. Back to work and more anon.
Blaklion's had a small wind op, post-Haydock. ....clutching at straws Nigel.
More importantly though, he's one more out of the way for Walk In The Mill to get in the race. Interestingly, been matched on a load of lays on him down to 220 on Betfair the other day, so nearly in for a free shot at c.10k!
With you and can't have Blaklion on my mind. That last run will have bottomed him, and no wind op is going to fix that!
Chipping away at Vieux Lion Rouge is my current project. Though the Lincoln tomorrow has been a bit of a distraction!
Here's how Accuweather sees the next few weeks at Aintree:
Last 8 days of March: rainfall on 7 days (in aggregate 43mm), daily high temp 7-11 degs.
First 7 days of April: rainfall on 4 days (total 19mm), daily high temp 9-12 degs. Most days cloudy, 1 day sunny.
Week of GN meeting: rainfall on Thurs & Frid (total 7mm), daily high temp 9-10 degs. Most days cloudy, 1 day predominantly sunny
Now weather forecasts are about as reliable as my Cheltenham selections. However, bearing in mind the cold, wet few weeks we've just had, it seems to me that the ground for the GN meeting is unlikely to be as good as last year (GS, Good places going stick 6.6), when One For Arthur won in a time just fast of standard.
It may still be decent ground (perhaps properly GS) with a horse's ability to travel and jump at a decent clip a must but, with the unsettled weather forecast to be about around the time of the meeting, there is certainly a risk of softer, perhaps testing ground.
With that in mind, let alone with the doubts over his fitness, got to say I'm relieved that Cause Of Causes is unlikely to run and, when Bob gets his act together, I'll see my stake returned.
So where to from here?
Especially after Tuesday's significant defections, I'm very happy with BLESS THE WINGS (50/1 e/w NRNB) and FINAL NUDGE (66/1 e/w). Both versatile as regards likely ground and looking very likely to make the cut at #44 and #46 (barring injury, Final Nudge will certainly be declared, so a return of stake if he doesn't get in). SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (33/1 NRNB) has a big day today of course and does look very nicely weighted. The big concern, given that he's been forced to wait for his return to the track to just 3 weeks before the big day, is the possible "bounce". Providing he runs respectably today, I'll be happy to be taking the chance.
Having re-assessed the likely field with almost all preps run, using some key stats and the old nose, I think there are several seriously good value each-way propositions this year, some more ground dependent than others, and definite potential for the biggest shock since Mon Mome.
More anon.
So, which lights are now flashing temptingly on my radar screen?
Firstly, those among the market’s fancies which are not:
Blaklion – loves the GN course and could well run a big race again but he didn’t see out the trip last time and finite stamina exposed last run over 6f less on Haydock heavy. Despite being a year older, a wind op and no doubt ridden less aggressively this time, with 8lbs more (11.09) and on likely softer going, it’s again “no cigar” in my view.
Total Recall – relatively unexposed when joining Mullins, capitalising with 3 good wins including the Hennessy with 10.08 on decent ground. Carrying 11.04 in the GN is a different proposition. Ran nicely in the GC but had come off the bridle and, to my eyes, wasn’t making much headway on the leaders when departing 4 out. That unexcused fall cooks his GN goose.
Anibale Fly (may run at Fairyhouse not Aintree) – excellent win in December’s Paddy Power handicap and a fine 3rd in the GC, though perhaps a little flattered by the 8L margin (the pace-setting principals tiring up the hill). Not enough elsewhere in his profile to suggest he can carry 11.07 to win a GN – minor honours possibly.
Minella Rocco – winner of a high quality 4m Novice Chase at the Festival (Native River behind) and an excellent close 2nd in arguably the best GC for years. A high-class stayer but has struggled this season and, despite a wind op since falling in the Irish GC (last outing – bad stat), his profile isn’t strong enough to carry top weight in this GN, in my view.
The Last Samuri – loves the course and could put in a bold show if the ground is slower than last year. Though 3lbs less to carry this time, the stats suggest it’s still too much for him to bag the prize – place potential at best.
UPDATED SHORT LIST
Existing interests in Final Nudge (66/1), Bless The Wings (50/1 NRNB) and Seeyouatmidnight (33/1 NRNB) – all pretty versatile as to going
What to add? The possibles according to my stats and nose:
Tiger Roll (14/1) – his win in the Festival XC on atrocious ground boosted his GN stat-profile and he’s the one at the head of the market that, in my view, could win it, with a very winnable-with 10.12. Stamina box also ticked by win, at previous Cheltenham, in the Novice 4m chase; good win/near-miss rate in 3m+ chases and versatile as to going.
However, I’ll consider whether to back him nearer the day depending on the ground and others’ relative chances. He didn’t convince when debuting around the XC course in December. It was no doubt just a “sighter” for the Festival but he made several blunders and was soundly beaten that day by Bless The Wings (Tiger Roll also PU’d in last year’s Irish National, in which BTW was 2nd) and I’m not convinced he’ll readily take to the GN fences at the first time of asking.
With BTW likely to run and on my slip at 50/1 (twice Irish National 2nd, excellent 2nd to Cause of Causes in the XC at last year’s Festival at level weights, has experience over the GN fences and, despite his mileage and age (Vics Canvas ran a blinder in the 2016 GN as a teenager), appears in as good form as ever – was going sweetly up front in the XC before an unfortunate stumble), I may well take a chance and leave Tiger Roll on my bench if the ground is soft enough to help several sexy long-shots.
Of the others, the following (in card order) have profiles to go really well if they get their preferred ground on 14 April:
Winning Potential
• RATHVINDEN (20/1 NRNB) – 10 year-old winner of the 4m novice chase (32 days prior) but finished very tired and Mullins has talked of next year’s GN
• SAINT ARE (66/1 NRNB) – but must have decent ground (“Good” in the description, as last year)
• RAZ DE MAREE (50/1, 40/1 NRNB) – must have Soft or worse for winning chance
• HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (125/1, 100/1 NRNB) – #41 currently - needs GS or softer for winning chance (just ran a nice prep in first-time blinkers - I'm having a deja-vu
• MILANSBAR (50/1 NRNB) – #45 and should get a run - the softer the better
• VINTAGE CLOUDS (50/1, 33/1 NRNB) – #52, so touch and go whether he makes the cut - GS or softer preferred (jumping potentially an issue if quick pace)
Strong Place Potential
• REGAL ENCORE (33/1 NRNB)
• I JUST KNOW (50/1, 40/1 NRNB)
• DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (66/1 NRNB) - #49
Mentioned in Dispatches
• Gas Line Boy (33/1), Ucello Conti (33/1), Baie Des Iles (50/1 - strong place potential if Soft or Heavy)
More anon. Keeping a close eye on the weather forecast.
Racing Post reported last Tuesday:
"Gordon Elliott, fresh from being crowned top trainer at the Cheltenham Festival for the second year in a row, aims to have four runners in a race he won with Silver Birch in 2007.
Cross Country Chase winner Tiger Roll and last year's Grand National runner-up Cause Of Causes – pulled up behind Tiger Roll last week at Cheltenham – are to be joined by Bless The Wings and Ucello Conti.
Elliott said: "A lack of concentration caused Bless The Wings to fall at Cheltenham last week and he's in great form, while Ucello Conti was travelling very well when he came down in the National last year."
The Sportsman reported last Wednesday:
"Gordon Elliott has reported Bless The Wings to be in "great form" following his fall in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last week, and the 13-year-old is all set for his first tilt at the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree on April 14.
A prominent figure through the early stages of the Cross Country, Elliott's veteran stumbled and sent Davy Russell out the side door at the Cheese Wedges, but Elliott, who saddled eight winners at last week's Cheltenham Festival, has said that it was just a lack of concentration from his stable stalwart that forced him to take a dodgy step, and that there's not a bother him as the Irish handler looks to get him ready for a tilt at the Merseyside marathon next month."
“The intention was to go to Liverpool but he won’t be going. He got jarred up (at Cheltenham). He’s not too bad but he won’t be right for this season,” said McManus’s racing manager, Frank Berry, on Monday.
Aged 8-11
At least 10 runs over fences
Won over 3m or more
Placed over 3m+
RPR 148+ over fences
Difference of 4+ between RPR and OR
Finished in first 5 in last two completions
3-6 runs that season
Won in a 14+ field
Placed in an 18+ field
Run in last 8 weeks
I've applied these to the field, estimating that anything sub-140 won't be getting in. This leaves us with...
BLAKLION
ANIBALE FLY
THE LAST SAMURI
VICENTE
TIGER ROLL
REGAL ENCORE
VIEUX LION ROUGE
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX
THUNDER AND ROSES
I'm happy to take on the top 3, who are all running off 159-161 (Anibale fly could win off that sort of mark, but may be going to Irish National, and in back of my mind that was a hard race in the Gold Cup so not sure about him following up)
Vicente sounds like he's not going to run unless it really is properly good ground...which is unlikely. His target is a third Scottish National.
Houblon Des Obeaux has had 38 chase starts which probably marks him down as too exposed. And Thunder And Roses last two runs are a P and a F which isn't the profile of a National winner.
So, my stats come down to
TIGER ROLL
REGAL ENCORE
VIEUX LION ROUGE
Regal Encore is a horse that I just can't get a handle on in his form in terms of trying to spot some sort of pattern. He does seem to find it difficult to back up a win though so winning his last start at Ascot may mean his race was run there rather than at Aintree.
So, I am left with TIGER ROLL and VIEUX LION ROUGE. The former is a horse I love, and he seems to have the ideal profile of a National winner. The issue I have is that I think he's best on undulating tracks. Indeed his only win on a flat track is in a Beginners Chase at Ballinrobe in May 2016, where he beat the now 116 rated Buster Dan Dan! So, I'm just not sure that this track is going to suit.
So, my main bet in the race is VIEUX LION ROUGE. He's had two attempts at the race already finishing 7th and 6th, and has seemingly faded before. But the first of those was a 7yo (too young) and last year he had a hard race at Haydock over 3.5m 7 weeks beforehand, and the ground came up quick on the day (time was faster than standard).
He now comes to the race as a 9yo (perfect age), having had 13 chase runs (ideal experience), he's won over 3m4.5f so the distance is within his compass, running off 150 carrying 10-12 (perfect range), had 3 starts this season (nice prep) and has won in big fields!
His form on flat tracks off an eight week break in double figure fields reads 111. And his run last time was full of promise as he stayed on nicely over an inadequate three miles to nearly snatch third on the line. I've rated him 160 previously so I think a mark of 150 is still workable.
With the bad weather around I think the ground may come up softer than last year and that should suit him fine and with his experience over the National fences he looks sure to run a decent race. He can certainly hit the frame. He's 40s but only four places, but 33/1 ew 1/4 first 5 is out there, as well is 1/5 first 6. I'm having a right lash at him and will be as more places come out.
In terms of a stat buster the one I'm most interested in is UCELLO CONTI. He has run big races in staying handicaps, and was 2nd to Anibale Fly at Christmas, yet is set to run here off just a 2lb higher mark. Back in Dec '16 he was 4th in the Becher beaten just 2.5L by the aforementioned Vieux Lion Rouge, and with subsequent National winner One For Arthur a neck behind him in 5th. He's set to race off a 1lb lower mark, and for all that he busts a few stats, being trained by Gordon Elliott I can be more flexible!
That's totally understandable of course but I fear it may prove to be that the weather-enforced 3 week delay in his return to the track could be costly on 14 April.
With a run in early March, he could have brought him on meaningfully with serious work at home and a racecourse gallop or two. By the time he's OK to work after Saturday, I'm not sure fitness will quite be there for the test of a GN.
On paper he's definitely got what it takes and has a very winnable-with weight but I must confess I'm mulling over cashing-out.
But from having horses in the stable this horses aim has been this years National since it finished last years and they also have the jockey they have wanted on him too now
After 227 days break - 1/11
After 53 days break - 1/5
After 316 days break - 2/6
After 242 days break - 3/6
After 57 days break - 1/3
After 197 days break - 1/2 (Beat Bristol De Mai)
After 126 days break - 2/8
After 364 days break - 3/7
In yesterday's RP Thompson said:
"While the first two horses went away from him, Danny said the fourth was never going to get past him. He came back and had a good blow, but wasn't legless, which is what we wanted..........There is a real possibility he goes there with a great chance."
I'm also not a great believer in Mordin's "bounce factor" mainly because I think that it is used as the obvious excuse for a horse's poor run second time after a break.
https://oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner
Just to point out, however, his next run after bashing Bristol De Mai after that 197 day break was 20 days later and he PUd 5 out in the Betfair Chase
In the 6 GNs since 1989 to be run on Soft or worse (or on materially rain-softened ground, i.e. 2009), all 6 winners and 11 of the 12 finishing 2nd or 3rd had won or made the frame in a Class 1 (or then equivalent) chase at 29f+.
Only The Last Samuri hadn't and he had never raced beyond 26f but had exceptional consistency at 3m+ (winning or placed in 7 of his 8 chases - the only "miss" being when hampered and unseating when going well late on).
EDIT - that excludes the Red Marauder farce in 2001, of course, when 4 finished but only 2 without having fallen and been remounted.
VIEUX LION ROUGE
Seeyouatmidnight
Will probably do a couple more on the day