Peanuts.. Any idea if number 68 would have made the cut in the last few years?
I'll have to fire up my PC Len. Bit indisposed at the mo but will do so tomorrow morning. Of course, he's with 4 others on 10.02, ranking 66~70. From that perspective, the prep will be significant in sorting the order among them prior to final decs. Will get back to you.
I've backed Final Nudge e/w with Ladbrokes. I had a problem with my a/c but backed at 66/1 in the end. I'm not sure what happened but then got a price boost so backed it again at 80/1. Cheers Peanuts.
Nice one Chief. Getting into Mon Mome territory Fingers crossed he gets a crack at it.
Thanks for your contributions as ever, Peanuts, always a fascinating insight and makes chucking my money at the bookies seem much less like an exercise in futility.
Thanks for your contributions as ever, Peanuts, always a fascinating insight and makes chucking my money at the bookies seem much less like an exercise in futility.
Thanks for your contributions as ever, Peanuts, always a fascinating insight and makes chucking my money at the bookies seem much less like an exercise in futility.
Cheers Chief - there are a lot of great contributors to this thread every year with very astute advice and selections. Have to say I agree with @PolzeathNick that there aren't a lot of good candidates down the weights. There are, as usual, even fewer at the top. Still plenty of racing before 14 April but, with NRNB offered earlier thsn usual, I'm happy to have taken the plunge on the 4 I have at the prices. Apologies in advance if this is the year the wheels totally come off.
Peanuts.. Any idea if number 68 would have made the cut in the last few years?
Morning @len90 , here goes. According to my own data, the last one to line up was the following number in the original weights (bear in mind, those allotted the same weight where the cut occurred would have been re-rated among themselves prior to final decs so there's a slight margin of error):
2010: 77 (Royal Rosa - 3rd Reserve at decs, originally #78) (OR139, 10.05) 2011: 69 (OR132, 10.02) 2012: 72 (OR137, 10.00 5lbs o/h) 2013: 75 (OR131, 10.00 3lbs o/h) 2014: 75 (Swing Bill - was rated 1st of 5 allotted same weight and was originally #79) (OR138, 10.01) 2015: 68 (OR139, 10.02) 2016: 58 !! (OR145, 10.04) 2017: 69 (OR143, 10.06)
Quite a range, so it doesn't mean much, but the average is 70. Final Nudge is one of 5 allotted OR143, same as last year's lowest OR to run (#66~70 on the list, currently set 10.02). Could boil down to the relative ratings of these 5 nearer final decs.
Thanks Peanuts. It looks like there is a fair chance that Final Nudge will get a run. The race has changed a lot over the years. I remember when horses could get in with less than seven stone.
Peanuts.. Any idea if number 68 would have made the cut in the last few years?
Morning @len90 , here goes. According to my own data, the last one to line up was the following number in the original weights (bear in mind, those allotted the same weight where the cut occurred would have been re-rated among themselves prior to final decs so there's a slight margin of error):
2010: 77 (Royal Rosa - 3rd Reserve at decs, originally #78) (OR139, 10.05) 2011: 69 (OR132, 10.02) 2012: 72 (OR137, 10.00 5lbs o/h) 2013: 75 (OR131, 10.00 3lbs o/h) 2014: 75 (Swing Bill - was rated 1st of 5 allotted same weight and was originally #79) (OR138, 10.01) 2015: 68 (OR139, 10.02) 2016: 58 !! (OR145, 10.04) 2017: 69 (OR143, 10.06)
Quite a range, so it doesn't mean much, but the average is 70. Final Nudge is one of 5 allotted OR143, same as last year's lowest OR to run (#66~70 on the list, currently set 10.02). Could boil down to the relative ratings of these 5 nearer final decs.
Could be touch and go for Walk In The Mill then currently #76! Had a few quid at wild prices on the exchanges. Interestingly, he had a spin over the X-Country fences the other day so maybe they're lining that up as a prep?
Looking a bit of a stretch. There are 3 on OR141 (#74-76) so a good prep could put him up a couple of places. I think there's going to be quite a few defections this year. Every chance that the top 4 won't run and Blaklion carries 11.10 and there are quite a few doubtful or with queries down the order. Abolitionist was conspicuous by his absence on Saturday (hoping it was that the Soft ground that deterred Newland and not a setback), Vyta Du Roc's doubtful (recent bout of colic), The Dutchman bled on Saturday (always a risk after a wind op), Vicente's preference said to be Ayr again, Silsol presumably won't be risked given his poor jumping and need for bottomless ground and Seeyouatmidnight has his comeback race shortly. Then there's bound to be some of the Irish that opt for Fairyhouse 12 days earlier than the GN. I know you need a shed load to come out but it could get close.
They certainly were scary Peanuts..... Back in day lad I stood by Beachers Brook,The Chair and in the ditch at the third fence which was just as daunting as the mentioned two fences. Stood on top of Beachers Brook after the 1986 National and it was some drop on the landing side,I wouldn’t even jump down from the fence.......so imagine what it like on a horse at 30-40mph!!!!
Hi Peanuts, another fan of yours here, can u make it clear all your bets on the race please, have gone back thru thread, cant quite see exactly what u have wagered, many thanks.
Hi Peanuts, another fan of yours here, can u make it clear all your bets on the race please, have gone back thru thread, cant quite see exactly what u have wagered, many thanks.
Cheers Chief. Prices have tightened since but I've backed each-way (5 places): ABOLITIONIST (Non Runner No Bet - highly advisable, as he's had a lay off) SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (NRNB - ditto) - first recommended here by @Addick Addict CAUSE OF CAUSES (NRNB) FINAL NUDGE (decided to take odds of 66/1 - still available from Ladbrokes - without NRNB - explanation in the post about him on p3) Good luck.
Ellison confirms Definitly Red unlikely to run in the GN. Bristol De Mai and Outlander also have other targets. Only Edwulf to come out for at least a 3lb rise. That could throw Total Recall's participation into more doubt.
As a newcomer to this, is it very possible abolitionist won’t run so if I have a bet on that isn’t NRNB, I should consider a method of backing off?
Neil, it's a gamble.
There will only be one winner of the race, but with some bookmakers paying up to six places, then the E/W market looks very strong, particularly with 'the Peanuts system' proving itself very successful over the past few years.
With odds of 30/1 and upwards available now, then if you like a flutter, it's got to be worth it, if you can afford to lose every penny you bet.
I look forward to the GN thread every year (bit worried by Peanuts short term disappearance last year) because his meticulous analysis of the race is, as far as I've seen, not only unique, but highly successful.
Set yourself a limit, take the risk and who knows, you may become another convert come 5pm on 14th April.
As a newcomer to this, is it very possible abolitionist won’t run so if I have a bet on that isn’t NRNB, I should consider a method of backing off?
You could lay your bet off on Betfair but, unless your original bet was with that Exchange, your money will be tied up until the evening of the race itself e.g. £10 with xyz bookmaker @ 33/1 = potential £330 profit. Lay £10 @ 20 on Betfair means potential no risk profit of £130 but with your lay money of £200 tied up 'til the market is settled.
It's possible any entrant doesn't run and, if scratched, the stake on any ante-post bet would be lost. It's unusual for NRNB to be offered this early for the GN. Abolitionist suffered an injury (a stress fracture - not normally major) last year but was purchased with the GN in mind by trainer and owner that have won it before. He last ran in August but was entered for a hurdle race last Saturday. He wasn't declared for the race (unknown reason - could have been that the going was considered too soft, maybe he wasn't quite ready, maybe a setback). Plenty of time still for at least 1 prep so, personally I wouldn't be too concerned. Trainer was talking positively a week ago when the weights were revealed. Not easy to reverse a a bet. Some bookies may offer a "cash out" price. I don't think that's an option right now but stand to be corrected. Otherwise you could lay him on an Exchange but you need to put up the potential "loss" in cash to do that.
As a newcomer to this, is it very possible abolitionist won’t run so if I have a bet on that isn’t NRNB, I should consider a method of backing off?
Neil, it's a gamble.
There will only be one winner of the race, but with some bookmakers paying up to six places, then the E/W market looks very strong, particularly with 'the Peanuts system' proving itself very successful over the past few years.
With odds of 30/1 and upwards available now, then if you like a flutter, it's got to be worth it, if you can afford to lose every penny you bet.
I look forward to the GN thread every year (bit worried by Peanuts short term disappearance last year) because his meticulous analysis of the race is, as far as I've seen, not only unique, but highly successful.
Set yourself a limit, take the risk and who knows, you may become another convert come 5pm on 14th April.
Cheers @Addickted . Much appreciate the vote of confidence. System is under re-modelling at the moment (while a decent sample is established post-2012 changes to the race) so a few old faithful stats and the trusty(?) hooter are sniffing out my fancies for time-being. Sorry Neil - you probably didn't want to hear that!
Might have to get a bit more Walk In The Mill. Averaged about 350/1 so far
Nice one Chief. I hope he gets a crack at it - would give you a nice choice to make I'm also partial to the occasional dabble at wild numbers on Betfair for the GN on a runner that the market's put a line through. I did it (quite large!) on 2-2.5 miler ScotsIrish some years back, who I strongly fancied on his X-C form. Had bonkers prices similar to yours but he sadly came to grief in his prep at the Festival. This year it's a small one on an on old favourite that I couldn't fancy at "regular" prices. Always had a soft spot and thought the GN was a possibility for Houblon Des Obeaux since he made me a few bob in the Hennessy a few years back but, though he ran OK last year (never really put in the race - sort of like Mon Mome the year before he bagged it - shares the same trainer of course), everything says he can't win even off his current mark - wrong time of year, much better fresh, hardly "thrown-in" on recent form, despite being a long way below his best OR. Nowhere near as spectacular as yours but I've accumulated a position at 190-200 (100/1 with the bookies). It could make me a nice turn if he goes well in the Eider on Saturday, otherwise it won't move much simply if he lines up on 14 April. Either way, I'll just keep it in the tin....just in case! BTW folks, this is a pipe-dream/avoid kicking myself dabble, NOT a tip. All the best.
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WIOTOS!
Of course, he's with 4 others on 10.02, ranking 66~70. From that perspective, the prep will be significant in sorting the order among them prior to final decs.
Will get back to you.
Have to say I agree with @PolzeathNick that there aren't a lot of good candidates down the weights. There are, as usual, even fewer at the top.
Still plenty of racing before 14 April but, with NRNB offered earlier thsn usual, I'm happy to have taken the plunge on the 4 I have at the prices.
Apologies in advance if this is the year the wheels totally come off.
2010: 77 (Royal Rosa - 3rd Reserve at decs, originally #78) (OR139, 10.05)
2011: 69 (OR132, 10.02)
2012: 72 (OR137, 10.00 5lbs o/h)
2013: 75 (OR131, 10.00 3lbs o/h)
2014: 75 (Swing Bill - was rated 1st of 5 allotted same weight and was originally #79) (OR138, 10.01)
2015: 68 (OR139, 10.02)
2016: 58 !! (OR145, 10.04)
2017: 69 (OR143, 10.06)
Quite a range, so it doesn't mean much, but the average is 70.
Final Nudge is one of 5 allotted OR143, same as last year's lowest OR to run (#66~70 on the list, currently set 10.02). Could boil down to the relative ratings of these 5 nearer final decs.
I think there's going to be quite a few defections this year.
Every chance that the top 4 won't run and Blaklion carries 11.10 and there are quite a few doubtful or with queries down the order.
Abolitionist was conspicuous by his absence on Saturday (hoping it was that the Soft ground that deterred Newland and not a setback), Vyta Du Roc's doubtful (recent bout of colic), The Dutchman bled on Saturday (always a risk after a wind op), Vicente's preference said to be Ayr again, Silsol presumably won't be risked given his poor jumping and need for bottomless ground and Seeyouatmidnight has his comeback race shortly. Then there's bound to be some of the Irish that opt for Fairyhouse 12 days earlier than the GN.
I know you need a shed load to come out but it could get close.
Back in day lad I stood by Beachers Brook,The Chair and in the ditch at the third fence which was just as daunting as the mentioned two fences.
Stood on top of Beachers Brook after the 1986 National and it was some drop on the landing side,I wouldn’t even jump down from the fence.......so imagine what it like on a horse at 30-40mph!!!!
Prices have tightened since but I've backed each-way (5 places):
ABOLITIONIST (Non Runner No Bet - highly advisable, as he's had a lay off)
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (NRNB - ditto) - first recommended here by @Addick Addict
CAUSE OF CAUSES (NRNB)
FINAL NUDGE (decided to take odds of 66/1 - still available from Ladbrokes - without NRNB - explanation in the post about him on p3)
Good luck.
Bristol De Mai and Outlander also have other targets. Only Edwulf to come out for at least a 3lb rise.
That could throw Total Recall's participation into more doubt.
Fancy that! They must be Lifers.
There will only be one winner of the race, but with some bookmakers paying up to six places, then the E/W market looks very strong, particularly with 'the Peanuts system' proving itself very successful over the past few years.
With odds of 30/1 and upwards available now, then if you like a flutter, it's got to be worth it, if you can afford to lose every penny you bet.
I look forward to the GN thread every year (bit worried by Peanuts short term disappearance last year) because his meticulous analysis of the race is, as far as I've seen, not only unique, but highly successful.
Set yourself a limit, take the risk and who knows, you may become another convert come 5pm on 14th April.
Abolitionist suffered an injury (a stress fracture - not normally major) last year but was purchased with the GN in mind by trainer and owner that have won it before.
He last ran in August but was entered for a hurdle race last Saturday. He wasn't declared for the race (unknown reason - could have been that the going was considered too soft, maybe he wasn't quite ready, maybe a setback). Plenty of time still for at least 1 prep so, personally I wouldn't be too concerned.
Trainer was talking positively a week ago when the weights were revealed.
Not easy to reverse a a bet. Some bookies may offer a "cash out" price. I don't think that's an option right now but stand to be corrected. Otherwise you could lay him on an Exchange but you need to put up the potential "loss" in cash to do that.
Sorry Neil - you probably didn't want to hear that!
I'm also partial to the occasional dabble at wild numbers on Betfair for the GN on a runner that the market's put a line through.
I did it (quite large!) on 2-2.5 miler ScotsIrish some years back, who I strongly fancied on his X-C form. Had bonkers prices similar to yours but he sadly came to grief in his prep at the Festival.
This year it's a small one on an on old favourite that I couldn't fancy at "regular" prices. Always had a soft spot and thought the GN was a possibility for Houblon Des Obeaux since he made me a few bob in the Hennessy a few years back but, though he ran OK last year (never really put in the race - sort of like Mon Mome the year before he bagged it - shares the same trainer of course), everything says he can't win even off his current mark - wrong time of year, much better fresh, hardly "thrown-in" on recent form, despite being a long way below his best OR.
Nowhere near as spectacular as yours but I've accumulated a position at 190-200 (100/1 with the bookies). It could make me a nice turn if he goes well in the Eider on Saturday, otherwise it won't move much simply if he lines up on 14 April. Either way, I'll just keep it in the tin....just in case!
BTW folks, this is a pipe-dream/avoid kicking myself dabble, NOT a tip.
All the best.
Realised I just attached the Timeform ratings' table earlier. Here's the full skinny from them post-weights.