Does anyone know if any bookies are paying 6 places e/w this early out? With money back if a non runner if poss...My usual BetVictor are only paying 5 this year
Paddy Power are going 6 places but I don't believe that they are NRNB - best with NRNB are Bet 365 and Skybet who are 5 places. Bet 365 are also best odds guaranteed too.
Are you sure about that Bob? Everything will be a better price now than SP
With an ultimate field of 40 there's enough "meat on the bone" for them to do that and the extra volume of business for offering these terms will outweigh their lower margins.
Are you sure about that Bob? Everything will be a better price now than SP
With an ultimate field of 40 there's enough "meat on the bone" for them to do that and the extra volume of business for offering these terms will outweigh their lower margins.
Are you sure about that Bob? Everything will be a better price now than SP
Yes - it can only be compared to SP. Ante-post is excluded from BOG but as it is now NRNB it is considered an early price race, not ante-post.
It is entirely possible that backing a horse now could see it return at bigger odds - and that’s the guarantee. There will be price movers both ways.
@Addick Addict and @bobmunro. A slightly different, more specific question. It is the case (is it not?) that an ante post bet on a horse that is declared for the GN but misses the cut (I.e is "balloted out") is void (stake returned)? Mulling over one down the weights that is a definitely intended runner but may or may not make the cut and Bet365 and SkyBet (currently the only NRNB) are both being real meanies compared to some others.
Are you sure about that Bob? Everything will be a better price now than SP
With an ultimate field of 40 there's enough "meat on the bone" for them to do that and the extra volume of business for offering these terms will outweigh their lower margins.
Are you sure about that Bob? Everything will be a better price now than SP
Yes - it can only be compared to SP. Ante-post is excluded from BOG but as it is now NRNB it is considered an early price race, not ante-post.
It is entirely possible that backing a horse now could see it return at bigger odds - and that’s the guarantee. There will be price movers both ways.
@Addick Addict and @bobmunro. A slightly different, more specific question. It is the case (is it not?) that an ante post bet on a horse that is declared for the GN but misses the cut (I.e is "balloted out") is void (stake returned)? Mulling over one down the weights that is a definitely intended runner but may or may not make the cut and Bet365 and SkyBet (currently the only NRNB) are both being real meanies compared to some others.
Most if not all bookmakers would return stakes on horses compulsorily withdrawn under Jockey Club Rule 121 i.e. where safety of jockeys and horses limits the size of a field - which of course applies to the GN.
So yes, as long as it was still declared at the overnight/final decs stage (12 April) and is then for safety reasons compulsorily withdrawn you would get the stake back. This clearly doesn’t give as much cover as NRNB as stakes on scratchings at either of the two formal scratching stages or at the five day decs stage would be lost.
Are you sure about that Bob? Everything will be a better price now than SP
With an ultimate field of 40 there's enough "meat on the bone" for them to do that and the extra volume of business for offering these terms will outweigh their lower margins.
Are you sure about that Bob? Everything will be a better price now than SP
Yes - it can only be compared to SP. Ante-post is excluded from BOG but as it is now NRNB it is considered an early price race, not ante-post.
It is entirely possible that backing a horse now could see it return at bigger odds - and that’s the guarantee. There will be price movers both ways.
@Addick Addict and @bobmunro. A slightly different, more specific question. It is the case (is it not?) that an ante post bet on a horse that is declared for the GN but misses the cut (I.e is "balloted out") is void (stake returned)? Mulling over one down the weights that is a definitely intended runner but may or may not make the cut and Bet365 and SkyBet (currently the only NRNB) are both being real meanies compared to some others.
Most if not all bookmakers would return stakes on horses compulsorily withdrawn under Jockey Club Rule 121 i.e. where safety of jockeys and horses limits the size of a field - which of course applies to the GN.
So yes, as long as it was still declared at the overnight/final decs stage (12 April) and is then for safety reasons compulsorily withdrawn you would get the stake back. This clearly doesn’t give as much cover as NRNB as stakes on scratchings at either of the two formal scratching stages or at the five day decs stage would be lost.
Indeed. Happy to take that chance on fitness and connections' intentions, assuming I conclude this is my final selection (and there's still a meaningful extra over the NRNB odds).. Thanks Bob, much appreciated.
Number 93 Knock House We bid a three figure fee for this horse at auction in 2016 with Anthony Honeyball planning a crack at the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and then a crack at the 2018 Grand National.Luckily we was outbid because his form since the 2016 Cheltenham Festival has been shocking
The Grand National Trial this afternoon at Haydock should be a fascinating race (good preview in the RP). 7 of the 8 runners entered for the GN and last year's 4th, 5th and 6th at Aintree had all run well in the preceding GNT (respectively 2nd, creditable 5th and winner in the GNT). Fascinating race yes but "GN Trial", maybe not. Firstly, last year apart, while many have used it as a prep for the GN over the years, Neptune Collonges in 2012 was the last, and the first since Party Politics in 1992, to go on from a strong run at Haydock (close 2nd) to bag the spoils in the real thing (somewhat fortunately, I still contend). Since 2012, only Niki Dee in 2000 made the frame in both. The historic lack of correlation is hardly a surprise really because the GNT is typically run (as today) on testing ground. Last year the going at Haydock was better than usual (GS), as it was back in 1992. Having said that, it would ridiculous to say that Blakion isn't a strong contender for both, regardless. More to the point, despite all 7 today having serious staying credentials, only 2 are sure to make the cut for the GN (Blakion and The Dutchman - the latter only because he was raised 13lbs for his fine win last time out in the Peter Marsh). Consider this about those potentially missing out from a chance to run in the GN - Three Faces West, Wild West Wind and Silsol (all OR144), Sir Mangan and, 2017 Eider Chase winner, Mysteree (both OR138 and effectively certain to miss the cut for Aintree at #86 and 87 in the weights). It translates (via Official Ratings of 144 or less) to every single GN winner from 1999 to 2008 (that's Bobbyjo, Papillon, Bindaree, Montys Pass, Amberleigh House, Hedgehunter, Numbersixvalverde, Silver Birch and Comply Or Die) as well as Auroras Encore (2013) and Pineau De Re (2014) not being able to take part in the GN. Add to that list a host of worthy stayers that nearly won it and even perennial frame-makers Clan Royal (both times, 2004 and 2006), State Of Play (at least in 2011), Alvarado (both times, 2014 and 2015) and Saint Are (at least in 2015). Cheers Phil - you've succeeded over the years in encouraging an increasing contingent of runners that may be higher-rated but have about as much chance of winning the GN as did the old Duke of Alburquerque - one for the oldies there.
I've backed Abolitionist, Cause of Causes and Seeyouatmidnight e/w on Bet 365. Thanks for your time & effort Peanuts, these threads are great fun.
Cheers Chief, you're very kind and I'm glad you enjoy them - many others contribute a lot of shrewd tips and wisdom. Still revamping my model - now with 5 years of data (post the changes in 2013) but still too small a sample really. So, a bit of a combo of basic big stats to draw up a long list and then using the old olfactory organ (aka my nose). Could well be a 4th to add. Fingers crossed.
PS If you get a chance, take in the Red Mills Chase at 2pm at Gowran Park, free on ATR (for the last time!). Our Duke (winner of the Irish Nat ahead of Abolitionist) takes on some familiar rivals but also the talented Presenting Percy. Too short a trip for both but an interesting contest nonetheless, ahead of the Festival. Our Duke's form, particularly if he goes well today and especially in the GC, could draw a lot of attention to Abolitionist. He hasn't run that well this season so far but that was still a quality Irish National last April.
What a bizarre race, the GNT. The only one not entered in the GN wins. The Dutchman pulls up (seemingly something amiss), Wild West Wind hits a wall when leading half way up the home straight and can't go on. Three Faces West crashes out. Sir Mangan PU down the back straight. Carnage but that's "Haydock heavy" for you. Blaklion a legless, remote 2nd and only other finisher (sorry, Mysteree comes home a mile behind in 3rd). Gamble of the the race (Silsol) unseats Fehily at the 1st, having run very creditably in the Welsh Nat under Bryony Frost. Give Noel some lessons Bryony
Nice one, Alan. Good win. He seems to get on well with McLernon.
Geraghty rode him in Punchestown some while ago, finishing a half length second but having rode about 2 miles further than he had to around the outside. Since then, McClernon has certainly formed a decent partnership with him.
A question for you. What have all these former GN winners (dating back to 1988) got in common? Rhyme N Reason, Party Politics, Miinnehoma, Earth Summit, Bindaree, Silver Birch, Hedgehunter and Mon Mome. Any fellow GN anorak will instantly know that they'd all previously won or made the frame in the Welsh National. For the record, all of them had carried between 10.00 and 10.13 at Chepstow and most carried more (absolute) weight to win at Aintree (only Earth Summit -8lbs and Miinnehoma -3lbs, carried less). The connection between WN and GN doesn't stop there. Of the many that have made the frame in WN and, later, GN over the years, The Thinker, Whatsupboys, Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree are particularly notable. All carried 11.00+ to be placed in the WN before also making the frame in the GN. Cappa Bleu did it twice in the GN and was the only one of the 4 to carry less than than he'd done at Chepstow - in fact less than 11.00 at Aintree (6 & 7lbs less than in the WN). If you're still awake, here's the reason for these stats. Hiding away at #68 on the card for this year's GN is FINAL NUDGE. He's been allotted 10.02. He needs quite a few (though not an unprecedented number) to come out if he's going to line up in the GN but, even if the weights go up, he'll likely carry no more than 10.06 if he does. Why's he of interest? You'll understand why my attention was focused on the first 2 home in the WN in January but Final Nudge was only 15L (3rd) behind Raz De Maree, despite lumping 11.06 in very testing ground (only The Thinker, of those named above, carried more). That was a highly creditable staying performance from a runner whose only other attempt at beyond 25f was when going well but falling 4 out in last year's 33.5f Midlands National (carrying 11.08 on Soft). Official Rating dropped 2lbs for Aintree compared to Chepstow but, more significantly, no GN runner for at least 40 years who's made the first 3 home in the WN, will have carried so much less absolute weight at Aintree (at least 1 stone less in all probability). What else is there to his profile? • 9 year-old (fine) • In good form this season. Prior to Chepstow he was a strong-finishing close 2nd (Head) in the Badger Ales Trophy. On that run (via winner Present Man and Theatre Guide in 3rd) he looks significantly well-in at the GN weights with a number of rivals at Aintree, simply on form at 3 miles. Of course, there's also a big change in weight versus Raz de Maree (who will need it testing). • Pedigree looks good. From the family of high-class 3 miler Celtic Shot, sired by Kayf Tara (top-class stayer on the flat and several top staying chasers among his progeny, including Blaklion!). • Best suited by some meaningful cut but ran creditably, travelling and jumping well, on Good ground at Ayr last April. • Never faced the GN fences before (as noted previously, most GN winners haven't done so) but no reason to believe he won't handle them. His fall at Uttoxeter is his only failure to complete in 10 chases under Rules. • Intention is to run at GN if given the chance. Prep will likely be either the Kim Muir or another tilt at the Midlands National. Both established GN preps and good trials and this year an extra week's gap before Aintree. A good run would be a bonus - just a nice spin, no spill would do fine. A fourth run in the season, around about 30 days prior would be in the sweet spot stats-wise.
I've been humming and ha-ing about him (not his GN credentials but when to back to him) all weekend but can't resist any longer. FINAL NUDGE (66/1) is the 4th horse on my 2018 GN betting slip (like the others e/w 5 places 1/4 the odds) but without the NRNB protection. Why? Because even though 40/1 from the NRNB bookies still looks very appealing I cannot pass up the silly price available from one layer (Ladbrokes). It is touch and go whether he makes the cut but, so long as he's declared for the race at the 2 day stage (it is the connections' stated intention to run if he's fit), if he doesn't make the line up I'll have my stake refunded. However, I'm prepared to take the risk that it all goes awry. At 66/1, since I weight my stakes to broadly be indifferent which of my runners score, I can afford to write off the stake if it does. If he appeals to you, please be aware that NRNB offers total protection in the event of him not lining up.
BTW, if you're confident that it's going to be decent ground, you could do a whole lot worse than SAINT ARE 50/1 NRNB. I can't believe he is being ignored by the market for the second year running. Nothing was finishing faster than him last year, when he was 8.25L 3rd. We know it was no fluke since he was a 2L 2nd to Many Clouds in the 2015 GN and was also a close 3rd in the 2014 Becher Chase. The only 2 obviously poor runs over the course have come on Soft ground (though he also had a soft fall at the first in the 2016 Becher). His 9th in the 2013 GN may not look much but he was only a 7 y-o at the time and he was looked after. The race is famous over the years for seeing repeat strong runs by Aintree stalwarts: The Pilgarlic (4 times 3rd~5th, 1977~1980) and State Of Play (3 times 3rd~4th, 2009-11) to name the most renowned. Still only 12 years old, he's been allotted 10.06 (carried 10.10 last year). Relative weights-wise, he'll be 3lbs better off for finishing 4L behind Cause Of Causes last time so more or less "level" but CoC is 20/1. Will likely have the same prep this Wednesday at Donny (3m veterans' chase) that he ran well in last year. Cause Of Causes just scores a little higher in my reckoning and both would want decent ground, so Saint Are stays on my subs' bench in case I'm re-investing a returned stake nearer the day - Saint Are if it looks like decent ground; Raz De Maree (possibly Baie Des Iles, despite being only 7y-o) if it's raining!!
I've backed Final Nudge e/w with Ladbrokes. I had a problem with my a/c but backed at 66/1 in the end. I'm not sure what happened but then got a price boost so backed it again at 80/1. Cheers Peanuts.
I've backed Final Nudge e/w with Ladbrokes. I had a problem with my a/c but backed at 66/1 in the end. I'm not sure what happened but then got a price boost so backed it again at 80/1. Cheers Peanuts.
Nice one Chief. Getting into Mon Mome territory Fingers crossed he gets a crack at it.
Comments
It is entirely possible that backing a horse now could see it return at bigger odds - and that’s the guarantee. There will be price movers both ways.
It is the case (is it not?) that an ante post bet on a horse that is declared for the GN but misses the cut (I.e is "balloted out") is void (stake returned)?
Mulling over one down the weights that is a definitely intended runner but may or may not make the cut and Bet365 and SkyBet (currently the only NRNB) are both being real meanies compared to some others.
So yes, as long as it was still declared at the overnight/final decs stage (12 April) and is then for safety reasons compulsorily withdrawn you would get the stake back. This clearly doesn’t give as much cover as NRNB as stakes on scratchings at either of the two formal scratching stages or at the five day decs stage would be lost.
Thanks Bob, much appreciated.
We bid a three figure fee for this horse at auction in 2016 with Anthony Honeyball planning a crack at the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and then a crack at the 2018 Grand National.Luckily we was outbid because his form since the 2016 Cheltenham Festival has been shocking
Fascinating race yes but "GN Trial", maybe not.
Firstly, last year apart, while many have used it as a prep for the GN over the years, Neptune Collonges in 2012 was the last, and the first since Party Politics in 1992, to go on from a strong run at Haydock (close 2nd) to bag the spoils in the real thing (somewhat fortunately, I still contend). Since 2012, only Niki Dee in 2000 made the frame in both.
The historic lack of correlation is hardly a surprise really because the GNT is typically run (as today) on testing ground. Last year the going at Haydock was better than usual (GS), as it was back in 1992. Having said that, it would ridiculous to say that Blakion isn't a strong contender for both, regardless.
More to the point, despite all 7 today having serious staying credentials, only 2 are sure to make the cut for the GN (Blakion and The Dutchman - the latter only because he was raised 13lbs for his fine win last time out in the Peter Marsh).
Consider this about those potentially missing out from a chance to run in the GN - Three Faces West, Wild West Wind and Silsol (all OR144), Sir Mangan and, 2017 Eider Chase winner, Mysteree (both OR138 and effectively certain to miss the cut for Aintree at #86 and 87 in the weights).
It translates (via Official Ratings of 144 or less) to every single GN winner from 1999 to 2008 (that's Bobbyjo, Papillon, Bindaree, Montys Pass, Amberleigh House, Hedgehunter, Numbersixvalverde, Silver Birch and Comply Or Die) as well as Auroras Encore (2013) and Pineau De Re (2014) not being able to take part in the GN.
Add to that list a host of worthy stayers that nearly won it and even perennial frame-makers Clan Royal (both times, 2004 and 2006), State Of Play (at least in 2011), Alvarado (both times, 2014 and 2015) and Saint Are (at least in 2015).
Cheers Phil - you've succeeded over the years in encouraging an increasing contingent of runners that may be higher-rated but have about as much chance of winning the GN as did the old Duke of Alburquerque - one for the oldies there.
Thanks for your time & effort Peanuts, these threads are great fun.
Still revamping my model - now with 5 years of data (post the changes in 2013) but still too small a sample really. So, a bit of a combo of basic big stats to draw up a long list and then using the old olfactory organ (aka my nose). Could well be a 4th to add.
Fingers crossed.
PS If you get a chance, take in the Red Mills Chase at 2pm at Gowran Park, free on ATR (for the last time!). Our Duke (winner of the Irish Nat ahead of Abolitionist) takes on some familiar rivals but also the talented Presenting Percy. Too short a trip for both but an interesting contest nonetheless, ahead of the Festival.
Our Duke's form, particularly if he goes well today and especially in the GC, could draw a lot of attention to Abolitionist. He hasn't run that well this season so far but that was still a quality Irish National last April.
The only one not entered in the GN wins.
The Dutchman pulls up (seemingly something amiss), Wild West Wind hits a wall when leading half way up the home straight and can't go on. Three Faces West crashes out. Sir Mangan PU down the back straight.
Carnage but that's "Haydock heavy" for you.
Blaklion a legless, remote 2nd and only other finisher (sorry, Mysteree comes home a mile behind in 3rd).
Gamble of the the race (Silsol) unseats Fehily at the 1st, having run very creditably in the Welsh Nat under Bryony Frost.
Give Noel some lessons Bryony
Since then, McClernon has certainly formed a decent partnership with him.
What have all these former GN winners (dating back to 1988) got in common?
Rhyme N Reason, Party Politics, Miinnehoma, Earth Summit, Bindaree, Silver Birch, Hedgehunter and Mon Mome.
Any fellow GN anorak will instantly know that they'd all previously won or made the frame in the Welsh National.
For the record, all of them had carried between 10.00 and 10.13 at Chepstow and most carried more (absolute) weight to win at Aintree (only Earth Summit -8lbs and Miinnehoma -3lbs, carried less).
The connection between WN and GN doesn't stop there. Of the many that have made the frame in WN and, later, GN over the years, The Thinker, Whatsupboys, Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree are particularly notable.
All carried 11.00+ to be placed in the WN before also making the frame in the GN. Cappa Bleu did it twice in the GN and was the only one of the 4 to carry less than than he'd done at Chepstow - in fact less than 11.00 at Aintree (6 & 7lbs less than in the WN).
If you're still awake, here's the reason for these stats.
Hiding away at #68 on the card for this year's GN is FINAL NUDGE.
He's been allotted 10.02. He needs quite a few (though not an unprecedented number) to come out if he's going to line up in the GN but, even if the weights go up, he'll likely carry no more than 10.06 if he does.
Why's he of interest?
You'll understand why my attention was focused on the first 2 home in the WN in January but Final Nudge was only 15L (3rd) behind Raz De Maree, despite lumping 11.06 in very testing ground (only The Thinker, of those named above, carried more). That was a highly creditable staying performance from a runner whose only other attempt at beyond 25f was when going well but falling 4 out in last year's 33.5f Midlands National (carrying 11.08 on Soft).
Official Rating dropped 2lbs for Aintree compared to Chepstow but, more significantly, no GN runner for at least 40 years who's made the first 3 home in the WN, will have carried so much less absolute weight at Aintree (at least 1 stone less in all probability).
What else is there to his profile?
• 9 year-old (fine)
• In good form this season. Prior to Chepstow he was a strong-finishing close 2nd (Head) in the Badger Ales Trophy. On that run (via winner Present Man and Theatre Guide in 3rd) he looks significantly well-in at the GN weights with a number of rivals at Aintree, simply on form at 3 miles. Of course, there's also a big change in weight versus Raz de Maree (who will need it testing).
• Pedigree looks good. From the family of high-class 3 miler Celtic Shot, sired by Kayf Tara (top-class stayer on the flat and several top staying chasers among his progeny, including Blaklion!).
• Best suited by some meaningful cut but ran creditably, travelling and jumping well, on Good ground at Ayr last April.
• Never faced the GN fences before (as noted previously, most GN winners haven't done so) but no reason to believe he won't handle them. His fall at Uttoxeter is his only failure to complete in 10 chases under Rules.
• Intention is to run at GN if given the chance. Prep will likely be either the Kim Muir or another tilt at the Midlands National. Both established GN preps and good trials and this year an extra week's gap before Aintree. A good run would be a bonus - just a nice spin, no spill would do fine. A fourth run in the season, around about 30 days prior would be in the sweet spot stats-wise.
I've been humming and ha-ing about him (not his GN credentials but when to back to him) all weekend but can't resist any longer.
FINAL NUDGE (66/1) is the 4th horse on my 2018 GN betting slip (like the others e/w 5 places 1/4 the odds) but without the NRNB protection. Why? Because even though 40/1 from the NRNB bookies still looks very appealing I cannot pass up the silly price available from one layer (Ladbrokes).
It is touch and go whether he makes the cut but, so long as he's declared for the race at the 2 day stage (it is the connections' stated intention to run if he's fit), if he doesn't make the line up I'll have my stake refunded. However, I'm prepared to take the risk that it all goes awry. At 66/1, since I weight my stakes to broadly be indifferent which of my runners score, I can afford to write off the stake if it does. If he appeals to you, please be aware that NRNB offers total protection in the event of him not lining up.
I can't believe he is being ignored by the market for the second year running.
Nothing was finishing faster than him last year, when he was 8.25L 3rd. We know it was no fluke since he was a 2L 2nd to Many Clouds in the 2015 GN and was also a close 3rd in the 2014 Becher Chase. The only 2 obviously poor runs over the course have come on Soft ground (though he also had a soft fall at the first in the 2016 Becher). His 9th in the 2013 GN may not look much but he was only a 7 y-o at the time and he was looked after.
The race is famous over the years for seeing repeat strong runs by Aintree stalwarts: The Pilgarlic (4 times 3rd~5th, 1977~1980) and State Of Play (3 times 3rd~4th, 2009-11) to name the most renowned.
Still only 12 years old, he's been allotted 10.06 (carried 10.10 last year). Relative weights-wise, he'll be 3lbs better off for finishing 4L behind Cause Of Causes last time so more or less "level" but CoC is 20/1.
Will likely have the same prep this Wednesday at Donny (3m veterans' chase) that he ran well in last year.
Cause Of Causes just scores a little higher in my reckoning and both would want decent ground, so Saint Are stays on my subs' bench in case I'm re-investing a returned stake nearer the day -
Saint Are if it looks like decent ground; Raz De Maree (possibly Baie Des Iles, despite being only 7y-o) if it's raining!!
I'm not sure what happened but then got a price boost so backed it again at 80/1. Cheers Peanuts.
Fingers crossed he gets a crack at it.