got my 6 at the ready, cheers all for helping me with some of the selections, let hope come 5.30ish tomorrow they all come home safe and we've won some coin.
annibale fly ( doesnt tick many boxes but won me money on the gold cup ) win @ 11/1 seeyouatmidnight ew @ 33/1 houblon des obeux ew @ 100/1 chase the spud ew @ 66/1 milansbar ew @ 33/1 regal encore ew @ 28/1
as regal encore was a non runner i replaced it with bless the wings ew @ 66/1.
great day out helped massively by having the saturdays 1st 3 winners, mr big shot, black op, diego du charmil.
the only downside was russel on board as i think he should of been banned for a lot longer than he did.
went in the west tip reserved seats this year, which i would recommend as you get a seat pretty much in line with the chair and have your own bar and toilets, only downside is its quite a way down and no bookies down there, weather was also spot on, as one of our party was in a wheelchair can give a special mention to mersey rail who were fantastic, and let us skip qs at liverpool central and aintree, and had the ramps waiting etc.
finally they all got home safe ( 6th year running? ) which is fantastic.
cheers all for making this thread enjoyable and thanks @PeanutsMolloy for the tips and insight.
Excellent article (aside from the nonsense about "No algorithm will ever predict the National winner......." ).
Makes me wonder what your thoughts are on things like the "virtual" Grand National? Lots of people writing the idea off as a nonsense but I'm not sure if they set the criteria/conditions right. They must use some sort of algorithm type process to come up with their predicted results, just with a fancy looking graphic to show off at the end.
Well their algorithm is better than mine !!
Blind luck. You've had sustained success over a longer period than them. :-)
Many thanks for your comment Chief. Been ruminating on this this morning and re-watched the race. Have to confess I was disappointed to have only 1 make the frame (and only just at that) but I can't blame my model. It did score Tiger Roll as a potential winner (albeit the 7th best of 7 winning profiles on that ground) and Bless The Wings was scoring highly prior to his Irish GN PU (and though it arguably did cost him a winning chance, from a tiny sample there was a precedent for a strong GN run just 5 days after an Irish GN, both also on testing ground - Ebony Jane in 1994). It doesn't take a major tweak to the system to reconcile Anibale Fly's fine run. Two problems however: As universally recognised, the race has changed in character post-2012 and my model, while still useful, is yet to re-capture anywhere near its pre-2013 reliability. Maybe it never will but I'll keep tweaking and aim to get closer as the sample grows year by year. What's notable for me about yesterday is that there is no obvious stat-explanation for Pleasant Company almost winning it. He's from the family of Comply Or Die but you can't easily accommodate pedigrees in a stat-model and, other than going creditably last year, his stats were very modest indeed (light, poor campaign, long break, unexciting strike rate). Especially on Soft ground, there can be results that are freaky stats-wise (though not freaky in terms of being deserved - PC's was a fine and worthy close 2nd) and there have been occasional "outliers" (i.e. a statistically unexplainable run) making the frame before but it's the first near-winner of a GN since 1988 that my model simply won't be able to reconcile. Not much one can (or should) do about that but at least what I can do something about is not to repeat the mistake of leaving out a runner that did have a winning profile on grounds of relative rating. As I said about him after his win at Cheltenham: "Tiger Roll.... ticked a few GN boxes today and put himself well and truly in the reckoning......but now best-price 16/1 NRNB - too short for my liking. Can't put my finger on it but I'm not convinced he's an Aintree horse - will probably look a right lemon come 14 April for saying that" Happily there aren't usually as many as 7 runners with winning profiles (typically no more than 4 and then I'll often add 1 or 2 that the model rates as strong place potential, if they appeal and work for the slip at the prices) but, in retrospect, I should find space on my slip for any runner with a winning-score, even if it depresses the return potential. It never works to pick between them and yesterday illustrated that the race can be over early on for any runner, no matter how highly rated stats-wise. Can't legislate for 2 normally safe conveyances (I Just know and HDO falling early - no excuses for either), Final Nudge got a little squeezed up and fell at the Canal Turn (so 3 out and the race has hardly started). Milansbar ran a great race really (being outpaced about 3 out and falling back to 10th but staying out stoutly to make the frame). But no excuses for Raz De Maree (worked into a decent pozy about 3 out but they went away from him again) or Baie Des Iles (was hampered badly at the 23rd by a loose horse when nicely placed but it wasn't material ultimately). It was a slow time at 36s slower than Standard but seemingly, very surprisingly from my perspective, still not slow enough for the 3 real mudlovers of mine that went out on the 2nd circuit.
Anyway, many congratulations to those who had Tiger Roll, Pleasant Company, Anibale Fly or Bless The Wings (especially those who didn't or couldn't follow me in discarding him). Great calls.
And many thanks to everyone who's participated in what's been another very enjoyable thread.
See you next year folks - same time, same place.
COYR
Top work as usual mate. Not your year as such but will be back next year.
dont forget tiger roll after his chelts win was described as that cnut o leary as a "rat of a thing" i see hes trending for giving out 1 free drink on a flight, that held 99 people max and delayed the plane
Must admit that I don't mind O'Leary too much, but I haven't used Ryanair so maybe biased in that regard! (that's not a snobbery thing btw, just don't like flying in general!)
What I would say about Gigginstown though, is they pump a serious amount of money into the game. They run their horses on merits, which would be the opposite of a certain other major Irish owner. And he certainly can't be accused of sitting on the fence!
Regards to Tiger Roll, he has a point....having seen the horse in the flesh, he is tiny! Makes the achievement all the more remarkable tbh!
According to Alastair Down, when Russell was sacked in 2013 it was conveyed to him by O'Leary over a cup of tea thus: "sorry Davy but we're out of sugar - one lump of cyanide or two?"
Comments
great day out helped massively by having the saturdays 1st 3 winners, mr big shot, black op, diego du charmil.
the only downside was russel on board as i think he should of been banned for a lot longer than he did.
went in the west tip reserved seats this year, which i would recommend as you get a seat pretty much in line with the chair and have your own bar and toilets, only downside is its quite a way down and no bookies down there, weather was also spot on, as one of our party was in a wheelchair can give a special mention to mersey rail who were fantastic, and let us skip qs at liverpool central and aintree, and had the ramps waiting etc.
finally they all got home safe ( 6th year running? ) which is fantastic.
cheers all for making this thread enjoyable and thanks @PeanutsMolloy for the tips and insight.
What I would say about Gigginstown though, is they pump a serious amount of money into the game. They run their horses on merits, which would be the opposite of a certain other major Irish owner. And he certainly can't be accused of sitting on the fence!
Regards to Tiger Roll, he has a point....having seen the horse in the flesh, he is tiny! Makes the achievement all the more remarkable tbh!