Did Houblon, Milansbar and Raz de Maree. It was 6years to the day of having the 1 and 2 in the GN (and Charlton getting promoted at Carlisle) and I was dreaming of a big payout again. Alas, not to be.
Milansbar placing meant I was less than a tenner down, and then remembered I had Tigers Roll in the work sweep which meant a rare treat of a takeaway pizza.
Cheers Peanuts and the many others who have once again contributed to a great thread.
Cheers Peanuts, on your earlier comments I backed Bless The Wings and Milansbar. Backed Tiger Roll this morning remembering your comments after Cheltenham also. Glad they all got back to the stables safely.
Well done to all those that had the winner and made a profit.From a racing point of view you couldn’t of had a worse owner winning the race! At the end of the day is that all the horses returned home safely
Well done to all those that had the winner and made a profit.From a racing point of view you couldn’t of had a worse owner winning the race! At the end of the day is that all the horses returned home safely
How refreshing was jockey Davy Russell, when giving his after race interviews?
Cheers pm, superb knowledge. Had milansbar and bless the wings on their earlier longer odds thanks to you. Then the Mrs picked tiger roll last night as she likes tiger bread...
LOL. Tiny but pleasant surprise when checking my Betfair account this morning. I'd forgotten to close out the small Betfair place position I'd had way back on Bless The Wings (only small as a top-up to the e/w with the bookies which I had cashed out) but it's returned enough to make the race into a small profit for me after all. Still have to declare it an unprofitable year as it was an oversight and Mrs M's still not talking to me .....................silver linings
Excellent article (aside from the nonsense about "No algorithm will ever predict the National winner......." ).
Makes me wonder what your thoughts are on things like the "virtual" Grand National? Lots of people writing the idea off as a nonsense but I'm not sure if they set the criteria/conditions right. They must use some sort of algorithm type process to come up with their predicted results, just with a fancy looking graphic to show off at the end.
Well their algorithm is better than mine !!
Blind luck. You've had sustained success over a longer period than them. :-)
Many thanks for your comment Chief. Been ruminating on this this morning and re-watched the race. Have to confess I was disappointed to have only 1 make the frame (and only just at that) but I can't blame my model. It did score Tiger Roll as a potential winner (albeit the 7th best of 7 winning profiles on that ground) and Bless The Wings was scoring highly prior to his Irish GN PU (and though it arguably did cost him a winning chance, from a tiny sample there was a precedent for a strong GN run just 5 days after an Irish GN, both also on testing ground - Ebony Jane in 1994). It doesn't take a major tweak to the system to reconcile Anibale Fly's fine run. Two problems however: As universally recognised, the race has changed in character post-2012 and my model, while still useful, is yet to re-capture anywhere near its pre-2013 reliability. Maybe it never will but I'll keep tweaking and aim to get closer as the sample grows year by year. What's notable for me about yesterday is that there is no obvious stat-explanation for Pleasant Company almost winning it. He's from the family of Comply Or Die but you can't easily accommodate pedigrees in a stat-model and, other than going creditably last year, his stats were very modest indeed (light, poor campaign, long break, unexciting strike rate). Especially on Soft ground, there can be results that are freaky stats-wise (though not freaky in terms of being deserved - PC's was a fine and worthy close 2nd) and there have been occasional "outliers" (i.e. a statistically unexplainable run) making the frame before but it's the first near-winner of a GN since 1988 that my model simply won't be able to reconcile. Not much one can (or should) do about that but at least what I can do something about is not to repeat the mistake of leaving out a runner that did have a winning profile on grounds of relative rating. As I said about him after his win at Cheltenham: "Tiger Roll.... ticked a few GN boxes today and put himself well and truly in the reckoning......but now best-price 16/1 NRNB - too short for my liking. Can't put my finger on it but I'm not convinced he's an Aintree horse - will probably look a right lemon come 14 April for saying that" Happily there aren't usually as many as 7 runners with winning profiles (typically no more than 4 and then I'll often add 1 or 2 that the model rates as strong place potential, if they appeal and work for the slip at the prices) but, in retrospect, I should find space on my slip for any runner with a winning-score, even if it depresses the return potential. It never works to pick between them and yesterday illustrated that the race can be over early on for any runner, no matter how highly rated stats-wise. Can't legislate for 2 normally safe conveyances (I Just know and HDO falling early - no excuses for either), Final Nudge got a little squeezed up and fell at the Canal Turn (so 3 out and the race has hardly started). Milansbar ran a great race really (being outpaced about 3 out and falling back to 10th but staying out stoutly to make the frame). But no excuses for Raz De Maree (worked into a decent pozy about 3 out but they went away from him again) or Baie Des Iles (was hampered badly at the 23rd by a loose horse when nicely placed but it wasn't material ultimately). It was a slow time at 36s slower than Standard but seemingly, very surprisingly from my perspective, still not slow enough for the 3 real mudlovers of mine that went out on the 2nd circuit.
Anyway, many congratulations to those who had Tiger Roll, Pleasant Company, Anibale Fly or Bless The Wings (especially those who didn't or couldn't follow me in discarding him). Great calls.
And many thanks to everyone who's participated in what's been another very enjoyable thread.
Interesting stat knocking around about Irish trained horses in soft ground nationals. First 4 home yesterday and similar domination prior to that on soft ground
Interesting stat knocking around about Irish trained horses in soft ground nationals. First 4 home yesterday and similar domination prior to that on soft ground
I would have thought that Irish racing would be run on ground much softer than in the UK, just to the amount of rain that falls there compared to here.
Interesting stat knocking around about Irish trained horses in soft ground nationals. First 4 home yesterday and similar domination prior to that on soft ground
I would have thought that Irish racing would be run on ground much softer than in the UK, just to amount of rain that falls there compared to here.
Agreed, apart from horses that run well at Ayr or Perth as Scotland obviously has a lot of rain too
Interesting stat knocking around about Irish trained horses in soft ground nationals. First 4 home yesterday and similar domination prior to that on soft ground
I would have thought that Irish racing would be run on ground much softer than in the UK, just to amount of rain that falls there compared to here.
Yeah that is the theory. Better conditioned and maybe better horses anyway for it
Interesting stat knocking around about Irish trained horses in soft ground nationals. First 4 home yesterday and similar domination prior to that on soft ground
Interesting point @PolzeathNick and stats make compelling reading.
Last 3 GNs to be run in time over 16 seconds per furlong, Irish-trained runners were:
• 2006 (GS!!): 8 from 40 runners (20%), finishing 1,2,4 (50% of first 6) • 2016 (Soft[Hvy]) : 13 from 39 (33%), finishing 1,3,4,5,6 (83%) • 2018 (Hvy[Sft]): 16 from 38 (42%), finishing 1,2,3,4,6 (83%)
In the other 10 GNS since 2006, run on differing degrees of better ground, the overall figures are:
• 28.6% of runners: 1 winner (10%), 16 in first 6 home (26.7%) with no outperformance in any particular year comparable to that in Soft ground GNs.
It’s still a small sample but the discrepancy in performance certainly looks stark. So, it’s not going to be more favourable handicapping (contentious of course) nor necessarily that they have better quality stayers. A GN on good ground is still an extreme test of stamina, though they obviously suit some runners rather than others. No doubt that Irish chasers habitually race on softer ground than British. It's fair to say that "Heavy" probably wouldn't have entered into the going description if yesterday's race were run in Ireland. Obviously runners from the top stables everywhere in Britain and Ireland are equally well-conditioned by state-of the-art training techniques but maybe the season-long grind on softer surfaces, continually jumping fences out of deeper ground, means that, come April, the Irish-trained runners are typically more used to it and have that extra few % to negotiate 34.5f and 30 obstacles on Soft compared to the Brits. Interesting to note that, though they’ve had far lesser representation, the Irish record in the Newbury Hennessy at the start of the season, typically run on Soft ground, is very poor – Total Recall being only the 3rd Irish-trained winner in 61 years. Whatever the reason, one to consider next time there’s a wet spring. Cheers.
Comments
All back safe is the main thing.
Lend us a tener mate
I had £10 e/w on Bless The Wings at 50/1. (as well as Seeyouatmidnight, Houblon and Final Nudge.
£80 profit I reckon.
Milansbar placing meant I was less than a tenner down, and then remembered I had Tigers Roll in the work sweep which meant a rare treat of a takeaway pizza.
Cheers Peanuts and the many others who have once again contributed to a great thread.
Glad they all got back to the stables safely.
Only ever bet on this and last couple of years on the Cheltenham Festival and really enjoy all the input.
What a great thread - cheers PM for your wonderful insight!
Tiny but pleasant surprise when checking my Betfair account this morning. I'd forgotten to close out the small Betfair place position I'd had way back on Bless The Wings (only small as a top-up to the e/w with the bookies which I had cashed out) but it's returned enough to make the race into a small profit for me after all.
Still have to declare it an unprofitable year as it was an oversight and Mrs M's still not talking to me .....................silver linings
Their promotion meant a little profit for the day
Wife picked Tiger Roll so family in the money (£30!)
No win for me this year but 3 places of the 7 I picked so just about doubled my money.
Gutted for HDO, think he would have placed at least
Have to confess I was disappointed to have only 1 make the frame (and only just at that) but I can't blame my model. It did score Tiger Roll as a potential winner (albeit the 7th best of 7 winning profiles on that ground) and Bless The Wings was scoring highly prior to his Irish GN PU (and though it arguably did cost him a winning chance, from a tiny sample there was a precedent for a strong GN run just 5 days after an Irish GN, both also on testing ground - Ebony Jane in 1994). It doesn't take a major tweak to the system to reconcile Anibale Fly's fine run.
Two problems however:
As universally recognised, the race has changed in character post-2012 and my model, while still useful, is yet to re-capture anywhere near its pre-2013 reliability. Maybe it never will but I'll keep tweaking and aim to get closer as the sample grows year by year.
What's notable for me about yesterday is that there is no obvious stat-explanation for Pleasant Company almost winning it. He's from the family of Comply Or Die but you can't easily accommodate pedigrees in a stat-model and, other than going creditably last year, his stats were very modest indeed (light, poor campaign, long break, unexciting strike rate). Especially on Soft ground, there can be results that are freaky stats-wise (though not freaky in terms of being deserved - PC's was a fine and worthy close 2nd) and there have been occasional "outliers" (i.e. a statistically unexplainable run) making the frame before but it's the first near-winner of a GN since 1988 that my model simply won't be able to reconcile.
Not much one can (or should) do about that but at least what I can do something about is not to repeat the mistake of leaving out a runner that did have a winning profile on grounds of relative rating.
As I said about him after his win at Cheltenham: "Tiger Roll.... ticked a few GN boxes today and put himself well and truly in the reckoning......but now best-price 16/1 NRNB - too short for my liking. Can't put my finger on it but I'm not convinced he's an Aintree horse - will probably look a right lemon come 14 April for saying that"
Happily there aren't usually as many as 7 runners with winning profiles (typically no more than 4 and then I'll often add 1 or 2 that the model rates as strong place potential, if they appeal and work for the slip at the prices) but, in retrospect, I should find space on my slip for any runner with a winning-score, even if it depresses the return potential. It never works to pick between them and yesterday illustrated that the race can be over early on for any runner, no matter how highly rated stats-wise.
Can't legislate for 2 normally safe conveyances (I Just know and HDO falling early - no excuses for either), Final Nudge got a little squeezed up and fell at the Canal Turn (so 3 out and the race has hardly started).
Milansbar ran a great race really (being outpaced about 3 out and falling back to 10th but staying out stoutly to make the frame).
But no excuses for Raz De Maree (worked into a decent pozy about 3 out but they went away from him again) or Baie Des Iles (was hampered badly at the 23rd by a loose horse when nicely placed but it wasn't material ultimately). It was a slow time at 36s slower than Standard but seemingly, very surprisingly from my perspective, still not slow enough for the 3 real mudlovers of mine that went out on the 2nd circuit.
Anyway, many congratulations to those who had Tiger Roll, Pleasant Company, Anibale Fly or Bless The Wings (especially those who didn't or couldn't follow me in discarding him). Great calls.
And many thanks to everyone who's participated in what's been another very enjoyable thread.
See you next year folks - same time, same place.
COYR
Last 3 GNs to be run in time over 16 seconds per furlong, Irish-trained runners were:
• 2006 (GS!!): 8 from 40 runners (20%), finishing 1,2,4 (50% of first 6)
• 2016 (Soft[Hvy]) : 13 from 39 (33%), finishing 1,3,4,5,6 (83%)
• 2018 (Hvy[Sft]): 16 from 38 (42%), finishing 1,2,3,4,6 (83%)
In the other 10 GNS since 2006, run on differing degrees of better ground, the overall figures are:
• 28.6% of runners: 1 winner (10%), 16 in first 6 home (26.7%) with no outperformance in any particular year comparable to that in Soft ground GNs.
It’s still a small sample but the discrepancy in performance certainly looks stark.
So, it’s not going to be more favourable handicapping (contentious of course) nor necessarily that they have better quality stayers. A GN on good ground is still an extreme test of stamina, though they obviously suit some runners rather than others.
No doubt that Irish chasers habitually race on softer ground than British. It's fair to say that "Heavy" probably wouldn't have entered into the going description if yesterday's race were run in Ireland.
Obviously runners from the top stables everywhere in Britain and Ireland are equally well-conditioned by state-of the-art training techniques but maybe the season-long grind on softer surfaces, continually jumping fences out of deeper ground, means that, come April, the Irish-trained runners are typically more used to it and have that extra few % to negotiate 34.5f and 30 obstacles on Soft compared to the Brits.
Interesting to note that, though they’ve had far lesser representation, the Irish record in the Newbury Hennessy at the start of the season, typically run on Soft ground, is very poor – Total Recall being only the 3rd Irish-trained winner in 61 years.
Whatever the reason, one to consider next time there’s a wet spring.
Cheers.