From your posts i have put £2.50 EW on this @ 66/1 thanks in advance
He's probably bigger than that now tbh. Have only backed him win only on exchanges at 3 figure prices. Layed off stake for a free poke at a five figure payout
From your posts i have put £2.50 EW on this @ 66/1 thanks in advance
He's probably bigger than that now tbh. Have only backed him win only on exchanges at 3 figure prices. Layed off stake for a free poke at a five figure payout
Nice good luck that would be a nice return, freerolling is always good Takes my runners to 6 tomorrow if Vintage Clouds gets in, quite happy with that.
OK folks, I promised a summary of all 6 that I’ve backed but I don’t want to bore everyone and repeat myself so for Raz De Maree, I Just Know, Houblon Des Obeaux and Milansbar, please refer to the write-ups in successive posts on P. 9 and for Final Nudge the post on P. 3.
However, given the well-known stats against her, I’ll flesh out the rationale as I see it for:
BAIE DES ILES (7 y-o, 10.08 [OR145]) – currently 16/1
Aside from carrying the first female jockey to win the GN, BDI would be a hell of a trend-smasher if she won. No mare has won the GN since 1961 and no 7 year-old since 1940.
To emphasise, in any GN but particularly one on Soft ground, a cardinal rule (in my book) for using stats is not to eliminate a runner on single stats alone. After all, the last GN to be run on Soft (2016) was won by a “maiden” in its 13th chase.
The reality is, as I’ve cautioned previously, the extra demands placed on stamina thins-out the opposition and makes an apparent trend-buster more of a possibility. That could even be a runner yet to be tried at beyond 3m but waiting to show they’re ready made for it. What matters is the blend of stats making up a runner’s profile but, on Soft ground, the percentage call is to place a premium on proven stamina.
But let’s address the 2 oft-cited stats against BDI:
The mares’ stat is easy – forget it. They’re infrequent participants in the race but have gone close before - Ebony Jane (4th 1994 on Heavy) and Dubacilla (4th 1995).
The 7 year-olds’ stat has been robust – they have a very poor frame-making record proportionate to their representation (49 runners = 4.5%), with only Big Fella Thanks (2009 – Soft) making the first 6 home since 1989 (0.6% of first 6 places). However: • Things may be changing post-2012. Since the race modifications, 8 year-olds have done appreciably better (3 from 5 GN winners and 33% of first 6 home, compared to 17% for the 5 prior GNs). It’s reasonable to suppose that the “right” 7 year-old could now figure at the business end of a GN. With limited representation, several have run very creditably - Saint Are (9th 2013 - two 7 y-o runners), Kruzhlinin (10th 2014 – two), Cause Of Causes (8th 2015 – two), Vieux Lion Rouge (7th 2016 – two). That’s 4 out of 11 (36%) of 7 y-o runners making the first 10 home, compared to 5 from 38 (13%) in the prior 23 GNs. More to the point, BDI’s profile has some distinctive, relevant features, particularly given the ground. In my view, it’s perfectly credible to treat her as equivalent to at least an 8 y-o: • She is, of course, French-bred and these typically mature appreciably earlier than British-bred chasers. • She’s more seasoned than any recent 7 y-o GN runner (and the majority of all of them since 1989) who were first- or second-season chasers (some novices). BDI is in her 5th season over fences, having started over jumps as a 3 year-old in France (3rd season in British Isles) • No 7 y-o GN runner since at least 1989 has matched her depth of experience and consistency of record in 3.5m+ chases: o As a 5 year-old BDI was 6th in Irish GN and 5th in Native River's Welsh GN (with 11.00 [OR143] on Soft) o 1 win and 2 places in her 3 other runs at 28~29.5f, all staying-on on Soft~Heavy. o Her 3rd last time out in the Irish GN Trial, giving 10lbs+ to Folsom Blue and Isleofhopendreams looks particularly decent after their strong runs in the Irish GN. • She’s never been tried further or on better than Y/Soft (at least over fences) but those runs at 3.5m+ gives a powerful clue that the tougher the stamina test (by trip and/or ground), the better she’ll show. • Never faced the GN fences but never failed to complete in 12 chases (that’s 2 more chase starts than both Many Clouds and One For Arthur had had prior to their GN wins) • She races prominently which should help her stay out of trouble and will be piloted by Katie Walsh (3rd on Seabass in the 2012 GN) • 10.08 to carry off a reasonable mark - though worse off at the weights with Houblon Des Obeaux on their runs in the 2016 Welsh GN. • 3 runs in the season, the last 62 days prior – fine stats-wise.
Just a final comment as to racing styles. Like BDI, I Just Know and Milansbar will almost certainly look to be prominent though, on the ground, I wouldn’t expect Raz De Maree, Houblon Des Obeaux or Final Nudge to be too far off the pace.
Of course, an important variable is the misfortune of a horse falling immediately in front and so prominent racing styles should obviously be a big help in that respect. There could be plenty of trouble on Saturday, though let’s hope that the slow pace will mean no bad news.
Good luck to all. Hope everyone (well almost everyone – sorry Bob) has a profitable day.
Picked a horse on my own for a change in first race today: winner @ 22/1 £5EW , good start for the day lets hope Ms P can come in would be a great day...
Hope it’s the Caribbean cruise and not the Woolwich Ferry for Mrs Peanuts :-)
I'll second that.
Whatever happens tomorrow (and my shilling will be following him) this thread year after year just illustrates the passion, knowledge, insight and humour @PeanutsMolloy brings to the race.
Perfect conditions for Milansbar. I can see him leading all the way. I might have a bet on the number of finishers if the price is right, under ten is my guess.
Not exactly a surprise but that was the slowest Topham since 2001 (the Red Marauder year) at 5m 50.6s, though not as slow as might have been expected. Winning jock reported it riding as predominantly Soft rather than Heavy - the time supports that. Testing enough over 34.5f.
I will have a proper read of this later, but had a few quid each way on Captain Redbeard a while back at 50-1. Will add a couple of @PeanutsMolloy's selections and should land on holiday in Spain in time to find a bar to watch them all fly, I hope safely, in over a couple of cervezas!!
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Comments
Not sure how they decided which of the two got in?!
Yes - all lost if it withdraws (refunded though I believe if it's eliminated based on numbers).
However, given the well-known stats against her, I’ll flesh out the rationale as I see it for:
BAIE DES ILES (7 y-o, 10.08 [OR145]) – currently 16/1
Aside from carrying the first female jockey to win the GN, BDI would be a hell of a trend-smasher if she won. No mare has won the GN since 1961 and no 7 year-old since 1940.
To emphasise, in any GN but particularly one on Soft ground, a cardinal rule (in my book) for using stats is not to eliminate a runner on single stats alone. After all, the last GN to be run on Soft (2016) was won by a “maiden” in its 13th chase.
The reality is, as I’ve cautioned previously, the extra demands placed on stamina thins-out the opposition and makes an apparent trend-buster more of a possibility. That could even be a runner yet to be tried at beyond 3m but waiting to show they’re ready made for it. What matters is the blend of stats making up a runner’s profile but, on Soft ground, the percentage call is to place a premium on proven stamina.
But let’s address the 2 oft-cited stats against BDI:
The mares’ stat is easy – forget it. They’re infrequent participants in the race but have gone close before - Ebony Jane (4th 1994 on Heavy) and Dubacilla (4th 1995).
The 7 year-olds’ stat has been robust – they have a very poor frame-making record proportionate to their representation (49 runners = 4.5%), with only Big Fella Thanks (2009 – Soft) making the first 6 home since 1989 (0.6% of first 6 places). However:
• Things may be changing post-2012. Since the race modifications, 8 year-olds have done appreciably better (3 from 5 GN winners and 33% of first 6 home, compared to 17% for the 5 prior GNs). It’s reasonable to suppose that the “right” 7 year-old could now figure at the business end of a GN. With limited representation, several have run very creditably - Saint Are (9th 2013 - two 7 y-o runners), Kruzhlinin (10th 2014 – two), Cause Of Causes (8th 2015 – two), Vieux Lion Rouge (7th 2016 – two). That’s 4 out of 11 (36%) of 7 y-o runners making the first 10 home, compared to 5 from 38 (13%) in the prior 23 GNs.
More to the point, BDI’s profile has some distinctive, relevant features, particularly given the ground. In my view, it’s perfectly credible to treat her as equivalent to at least an 8 y-o:
• She is, of course, French-bred and these typically mature appreciably earlier than British-bred chasers.
• She’s more seasoned than any recent 7 y-o GN runner (and the majority of all of them since 1989) who were first- or second-season chasers (some novices). BDI is in her 5th season over fences, having started over jumps as a 3 year-old in France (3rd season in British Isles)
• No 7 y-o GN runner since at least 1989 has matched her depth of experience and consistency of record in 3.5m+ chases:
o As a 5 year-old BDI was 6th in Irish GN and 5th in Native River's Welsh GN (with 11.00 [OR143] on Soft)
o 1 win and 2 places in her 3 other runs at 28~29.5f, all staying-on on Soft~Heavy.
o Her 3rd last time out in the Irish GN Trial, giving 10lbs+ to Folsom Blue and Isleofhopendreams looks particularly decent after their strong runs in the Irish GN.
• She’s never been tried further or on better than Y/Soft (at least over fences) but those runs at 3.5m+ gives a powerful clue that the tougher the stamina test (by trip and/or ground), the better she’ll show.
• Never faced the GN fences but never failed to complete in 12 chases (that’s 2 more chase starts than both Many Clouds and One For Arthur had had prior to their GN wins)
• She races prominently which should help her stay out of trouble and will be piloted by Katie Walsh (3rd on Seabass in the 2012 GN)
• 10.08 to carry off a reasonable mark - though worse off at the weights with Houblon Des Obeaux on their runs in the 2016 Welsh GN.
• 3 runs in the season, the last 62 days prior – fine stats-wise.
Just a final comment as to racing styles. Like BDI, I Just Know and Milansbar will almost certainly look to be prominent though, on the ground, I wouldn’t expect Raz De Maree, Houblon Des Obeaux or Final Nudge to be too far off the pace.
Of course, an important variable is the misfortune of a horse falling immediately in front and so prominent racing styles should obviously be a big help in that respect. There could be plenty of trouble on Saturday, though let’s hope that the slow pace will mean no bad news.
Good luck to all. Hope everyone (well almost everyone – sorry Bob) has a profitable day.
Hope it’s the Caribbean cruise and not the Woolwich Ferry for Mrs Peanuts :-)
Whatever happens tomorrow (and my shilling will be following him) this thread year after year just illustrates the passion, knowledge, insight and humour @PeanutsMolloy brings to the race.
I salute you, Sir.
I think it's going to be a slow GN that will suit some of the slower, bigger priced, "sloggers".
Winning jock reported it riding as predominantly Soft rather than Heavy - the time supports that. Testing enough over 34.5f.
Best of luck everyone!
In fact I'm sure that I saw a new slogan with you specifically in mind - "a pound on National day goes a long way with Bet 365!"
Good luck to you too and all your followers - including me of course!