...so, Walk In The Mill has little chance then, you think?
I wouldn't say that @meldrew66 The fact is a horse (like WITM), never tried at the trip (not beyond 25.5f in his case), could spring a massive surprise in these conditions, because the oppo will be thinned-out. Maybe he's made for it. Gilgamboa had never run beyond 25f but saw out the trip with 11.01 to finish a fine 4th on Soft in 2016. Never say never but, for me, it's all about "percentages". If there are enough in the race with proven form over 3.5m+ on testing ground and all-round good stat-profiles and (at least formerly) available at value-prices, I'd rather be with them in these conditions. He's by Walk In the Park (sire of Douvan and others who goes on all manner of ground) so you'd like to think a soft surface wouldn't disadvantage him. You can forgive him the PU on "Haydock Heavy" behind The Dutchman - that's unique ground that plenty of decent stayers don't go on. He's won at 3m and ran well behind Gold Present and will have a lovely weight. If you have him at a big price enjoy the ride!
I don’t want to sound too confident as poor bobmunro lost his years bonus on one of my other horses Oxford Blu at Cheltenham..................... I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after. To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals
Blimey - fancy losing a million quid on one horse!
That guy who lost £500k on Douvan last year sticks long, LONG in the memory!
I don’t want to sound too confident as poor bobmunro lost his years bonus on one of my other horses Oxford Blu at Cheltenham..................... I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after. To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals
Blimey - fancy losing a million quid on one horse!
Just looking at it from a current value perspective, it seems bonkers to me that if you're going to ignore the age stat (and it is easier on paper to ignore it at the upper end), Raz De Maree (33/1) is twice the price of Baie Des Iles (16/1). Both with similar gap since (very good) last run but RDM did put in a sprint finish in both Welsh GNs, the second on testing ground, the first on Soft but in which BDI was >20L behind. True BDI gave him 7lbs that day and receives 1lb on Saturday and true that the race could show BDI at her best but the way he finished RDM could have gone around Chepstow again both times. I like them both (a lot) but, at current prices and assuming the ground stays predominantly Soft, RDM is the pick of the two for me and still great e/w value. He has completed a GN before (very respectably given the ground). Then again it is the "Year of the Woman",...... as Mrs M keeps reminding me.
Of course, the irony of the Red Marauder GN, run on virtually unraceable ground, is that Red Marauder had never won a chase beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and no race at 3m+. He'd failed 4 times in 3m+ chases and fallen at Bechers first-circuit in the previous GN. Pre-model days but I was on Smarty (and others) that day and I remember thinking when it was just the pair of them left standing that all he has to do is get round (he only had 10.00 to carry - no way Red Marauder was going to outstay him) ....... what do I know? Nonetheless, it was a farce of a race. So, what about 2018? Cardinal rule for using trends in the GN: NEVER eliminate a runner purely on 1 stat. They said Mon Mome couldn't win because he was French-bred. No French-bred winner to date - yes but there had been several who had come mighty close, e.g. close 2nds (
This is astonishing research. Of course, it helps that Peanuts probably wasn't seven years old like I was for Red Marauder, but this is absolutely phenomenal work.
You're too kind @PaddyP17 The proof of the pudding ........ as they say.
Just looking at it from a current value perspective, it seems bonkers to me that if you're going to ignore the age stat (and it is easier on paper to ignore it at the upper end), Raz De Maree (33/1) is twice the price of Baie Des Iles (16/1). Both with similar gap since (very good) last run but RDM did put in a sprint finish in both Welsh GNs, the second on testing ground, the first on Soft but in which BDI was >20L behind. True BDI gave him 7lbs that day and receives 1lb on Saturday and true that the race could show BDI at her best but the way he finished RDM could have gone around Chepstow again both times. I like them both (a lot) but, at current prices and assuming the ground stays predominantly Soft, RDM is the pick of the two for me and still great e/w value. He has completed a GN before (very respectably given the ground). Then again it is the "Year of the Woman",...... as Mrs M keeps reminding me.
agreed, I got Raz at 40/1 which I thought was very nice EW value.
I still come on here just to catch up with this thread. Fantastic insight thank you! I've backed a few of the horses mentioned (Houblon Des Obeaux, Milansbar, Baie Des Iles and Raz De Maree). Hopefully we are all happy come 18:30 Saturday!
I have a few bets for the lead up, 2 from a tipster on twitter who smashed cheltenham and other week won me a hundred quid, mate won £500 and he doesn't often do short odds. His tips: Doitforthevillage tomorrow @ 12/1 16:40 & Ms Parfois 8/1 Friday 14:50 Anyone want to follow at your own risk but has a great recent record since i have been following on twiiter: profprofitable.
I have bet one one more as a random one i just picked out myself Clan Des Obeaux @ 16/1 - Runs tomorrow @ 14:50
3rd one avoid as i haven't really looked into it just a small bet as name jumped out to me normally my best hope rather than looking at form etc.
I have a few bets for the lead up, 2 from a tipster on twitter who smashed cheltenham and other week won me a hundred quid, mate won £500 and he doesn't often do short odds. His tips: Doitforthevillage tomorrow @ 12/1 16:40 & Ms Parfois 8/1 Friday 14:50 Anyone want to follow at your own risk but has a great recent record since i have been following on twiiter: profprofitable.
I have bet one one more as a random one i just picked out myself Clan Des Obeaux @ 16/1 - Runs tomorrow @ 14:50
3rd one avoid as i haven't really looked into it just a small bet as name jumped out to me normally my best hope rather than looking at form etc.
Profprofitable, isn't it? Good mate of mine, don't know why he doesn't act as himself and goes by the name "Charles Valentine" hahahaha
Of course, the irony of the Red Marauder GN, run on virtually unraceable ground, is that Red Marauder had never won a chase beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and no race at 3m+. He'd failed 4 times in 3m+ chases and fallen at Bechers first-circuit in the previous GN. Pre-model days but I was on Smarty (and others) that day and I remember thinking when it was just the pair of them left standing that all he has to do is get round (he only had 10.00 to carry - no way Red Marauder was going to outstay him) ....... what do I know? Nonetheless, it was a farce of a race. So, what about 2018? Cardinal rule for using trends in the GN: NEVER eliminate a runner purely on 1 stat. They said Mon Mome couldn't win because he was French-bred. No French-bred winner to date - yes but there had been several who had come mighty close, e.g. close 2nds (
This is astonishing research. Of course, it helps that Peanuts probably wasn't seven years old like I was for Red Marauder, but this is absolutely phenomenal work.
You're too kind @PaddyP17 The proof of the pudding ........ as they say.
And if we go back over the GN threads over the years, your model clearly works. Keep printing money please!
The tipster I referred to above, by the way, did in fact say the following:
"One of the best racing things I have ever been sent mate! That’s fantastic! What commitment!"
I have a few bets for the lead up, 2 from a tipster on twitter who smashed cheltenham and other week won me a hundred quid, mate won £500 and he doesn't often do short odds. His tips: Doitforthevillage tomorrow @ 12/1 16:40 & Ms Parfois 8/1 Friday 14:50 Anyone want to follow at your own risk but has a great recent record since i have been following on twiiter: profprofitable.
I have bet one one more as a random one i just picked out myself Clan Des Obeaux @ 16/1 - Runs tomorrow @ 14:50
3rd one avoid as i haven't really looked into it just a small bet as name jumped out to me normally my best hope rather than looking at form etc.
Profprofitable, isn't it? Good mate of mine, don't know why he doesn't act as himself and goes by the name "Charles Valentine" hahahaha
Thats one one, yep his name is on there just thats his twitter alias. Started following around Cheltenham and followed up with another good result which i followed.
I don’t want to sound too confident as poor bobmunro lost his years bonus on one of my other horses Oxford Blu at Cheltenham..................... I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after. To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals
Blimey - fancy losing a million quid on one horse!
Easy come, easy go ;-)
BOB MUNRO NO! We will not let you go (Let him go!) 365! We will not let you go (Let him go!)
...
Cos Bob Munro, has an offshore Cayman Islands bank account set aside for my winnings...
Of course, the irony of the Red Marauder GN, run on virtually unraceable ground, is that Red Marauder had never won a chase beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and no race at 3m+. He'd failed 4 times in 3m+ chases and fallen at Bechers first-circuit in the previous GN. Pre-model days but I was on Smarty (and others) that day and I remember thinking when it was just the pair of them left standing that all he has to do is get round (he only had 10.00 to carry - no way Red Marauder was going to outstay him) ....... what do I know? Nonetheless, it was a farce of a race. So, what about 2018? Cardinal rule for using trends in the GN: NEVER eliminate a runner purely on 1 stat. They said Mon Mome couldn't win because he was French-bred. No French-bred winner to date - yes but there had been several who had come mighty close, e.g. close 2nds (
This is astonishing research. Of course, it helps that Peanuts probably wasn't seven years old like I was for Red Marauder, but this is absolutely phenomenal work.
You're too kind @PaddyP17 The proof of the pudding ........ as they say.
And if we go back over the GN threads over the years, your model clearly works. Keep printing money please!
The tipster I referred to above, by the way, did in fact say the following:
"One of the best racing things I have ever been sent mate! That’s fantastic! What commitment!"
Cheers Chief. My model's had its moments but this could be the year it careers off the road and ends up a smoldering wreck. Sincere apologies in advance to everyone who's followed it if so.
I still come on here just to catch up with this thread. Fantastic insight thank you! I've backed a few of the horses mentioned (Houblon Des Obeaux, Milansbar, Baie Des Iles and Raz De Maree). Hopefully we are all happy come 18:30 Saturday!
I know the going is soft-ish and more rain forecast, but I hope to be happy by 17:30
I'm on 5 each ways thanks to all the good advice on this thread, and if just one is placed I'm guaranteed to break even. Even if nothing is, it's a fascinating thread, and the enjoyment of following it will be worth the small loss*. Thanks to all contributors.
* I may not feel like that at six o clock on Saturday
I don’t want to sound too confident as poor bobmunro lost his years bonus on one of my other horses Oxford Blu at Cheltenham..................... I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after. To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals
Blimey - fancy losing a million quid on one horse!
Easy come, easy go ;-)
BOB MUNRO NO! We will not let you go (Let him go!) 365! We will not let you go (Let him go!)
...
Cos Bob Munro, has an offshore Cayman Islands bank account set aside for my winnings his retirement...
Peanuts - any thoughts on the chances of Alpha Des Obeaux...?
Sorry I missed this earlier Chief. Bit short of time but in a nutshell, I have to say I'm always reluctant to back a horse in any chase, let alone a GN on soft, that is prone to bleed. I could be proven wrong but that is one stat that for me is virtually a red line. For the same reason, I can't have Gold Present or The Dutchman either. Leaving that aside, though he was unlucky in the Irish GN last year (badly hampered early, finished 8th 32L), his general 3m+ chase stats don't make compelling reading. Yet to win (or near-miss by my definition = <4L) and only once made the frame in 9 attempts - though that was a good 2nd to Total Recall in the Munster National (giving TR 16lbs for a 7L defeat - gets 1lb from TR on Saturday). He just doesn't tick any of my boxes to be honest and, though well treated with Total Recall, neither are exactly carrying a light weight - but please don't let me put you off if you fancy him. I know it's difficult to imagine but I could be wrong
Minella Rocco Blaklion Anibale Fly The Last Samuri Valseur Lido Total Recall Alpha Des Obeaux Perfect Candidate Shantou Flyer Tenor Nivernais Carlingford Lough Vicente Tiger Roll Regal Encore Vieux Lion Rouge Chase The Spud Warriors Take Seeyouatmidnight Gas Line Boy The Dutchman Pleasant Company Ucello Conti Saint Are Beeves Raz De Maree I Just Know Virgilio Baie Des Iles Maggio Pendra Buywise Childrens List Lord Windermere Captain Redbeard Houblon Des Obeaux Bless The Wings Milansbar Final Nudge Double Ross Road To Riches
Reserves: Thunder And Roses, Delusionofgrandeur, Walk In The Mill and Vintage Clouds.
Comments
The fact is a horse (like WITM), never tried at the trip (not beyond 25.5f in his case), could spring a massive surprise in these conditions, because the oppo will be thinned-out. Maybe he's made for it.
Gilgamboa had never run beyond 25f but saw out the trip with 11.01 to finish a fine 4th on Soft in 2016.
Never say never but, for me, it's all about "percentages". If there are enough in the race with proven form over 3.5m+ on testing ground and all-round good stat-profiles and (at least formerly) available at value-prices, I'd rather be with them in these conditions.
He's by Walk In the Park (sire of Douvan and others who goes on all manner of ground) so you'd like to think a soft surface wouldn't disadvantage him. You can forgive him the PU on "Haydock Heavy" behind The Dutchman - that's unique ground that plenty of decent stayers don't go on. He's won at 3m and ran well behind Gold Present and will have a lovely weight. If you have him at a big price enjoy the ride!
Both with similar gap since (very good) last run but RDM did put in a sprint finish in both Welsh GNs, the second on testing ground, the first on Soft but in which BDI was >20L behind. True BDI gave him 7lbs that day and receives 1lb on Saturday and true that the race could show BDI at her best but the way he finished RDM could have gone around Chepstow again both times.
I like them both (a lot) but, at current prices and assuming the ground stays predominantly Soft, RDM is the pick of the two for me and still great e/w value. He has completed a GN before (very respectably given the ground).
Then again it is the "Year of the Woman",...... as Mrs M keeps reminding me.
The proof of the pudding ........ as they say.
His tips: Doitforthevillage tomorrow @ 12/1 16:40
& Ms Parfois 8/1 Friday 14:50
Anyone want to follow at your own risk but has a great recent record since i have been following on twiiter: profprofitable.
I have bet one one more as a random one i just picked out myself
Clan Des Obeaux @ 16/1 - Runs tomorrow @ 14:50
3rd one avoid as i haven't really looked into it just a small bet as name jumped out to me
The tipster I referred to above, by the way, did in fact say the following:
"One of the best racing things I have ever been sent mate! That’s fantastic! What commitment!"
365! We will not let you go (Let him go!)
...
Cos Bob Munro, has an offshore Cayman Islands bank account set aside for my winnings...
---------------------
Hm. It's a slow day at work.
My model's had its moments but this could be the year it careers off the road and ends up a smoldering wreck. Sincere apologies in advance to everyone who's followed it if so.
Even if nothing is, it's a fascinating thread, and the enjoyment of following it will be worth the small loss*. Thanks to all contributors.
* I may not feel like that at six o clock on Saturday
Bit short of time but in a nutshell, I have to say I'm always reluctant to back a horse in any chase, let alone a GN on soft, that is prone to bleed.
I could be proven wrong but that is one stat that for me is virtually a red line. For the same reason, I can't have Gold Present or The Dutchman either.
Leaving that aside, though he was unlucky in the Irish GN last year (badly hampered early, finished 8th 32L), his general 3m+ chase stats don't make compelling reading. Yet to win (or near-miss by my definition = <4L) and only once made the frame in 9 attempts - though that was a good 2nd to Total Recall in the Munster National (giving TR 16lbs for a 7L defeat - gets 1lb from TR on Saturday).
He just doesn't tick any of my boxes to be honest and, though well treated with Total Recall, neither are exactly carrying a light weight - but please don't let me put you off if you fancy him. I know it's difficult to imagine but I could be wrong
Blaklion
Anibale Fly
The Last Samuri
Valseur Lido
Total Recall
Alpha Des Obeaux
Perfect Candidate
Shantou Flyer
Tenor Nivernais
Carlingford Lough
Vicente
Tiger Roll
Regal Encore
Vieux Lion Rouge
Chase The Spud
Warriors Take
Seeyouatmidnight
Gas Line Boy
The Dutchman
Pleasant Company
Ucello Conti
Saint Are
Beeves
Raz De Maree
I Just Know
Virgilio
Baie Des Iles
Maggio
Pendra
Buywise
Childrens List
Lord Windermere
Captain Redbeard
Houblon Des Obeaux
Bless The Wings
Milansbar
Final Nudge
Double Ross
Road To Riches
Reserves: Thunder And Roses, Delusionofgrandeur, Walk In The Mill and Vintage Clouds.
What happened at the end?