Cheers @PaddyP17 . I'm very humbled to enjoy the confidence of a man on as brilliant a run as yourself. Totally agree with you about Baie Des Iles In fact, I followed you when you picked her out early on and took 66s NRNB then, originally in case the ground got really testing but it's not a given that she'd need it bottomless to be a serious contender, providing there's reasonable cut. Stats are against: no mare has won the GN since 1951, no 7 year-old since 1940, though some have run very creditably in recent times (notably Big Fella Thanks, Saint Are and Cause of Causes). But BDI's no ordinary 7 year-old and, of course, being French-bred is a helpful factor. As a 5 year-old was 6th in Irish GN and 5th in Native River's Welsh GN (with 11.00). A win and 2 places in her 3 other runs at 28~29.5f, all staying-on on Soft~Heavy. Never tried further or on better than Y/Soft (at least over fences). Never failed to complete in 12 chases. Her 3rd last time out in the Irish GN Trial, giving 10lbs+ to Folsom Blue and Isleofhopendreams looking good after Monday. 10.07 to carry, reasonable mark. 3 runs in the season, the last 62 days prior - fine. With Rathvinden out, I'll keep the interest in her certainly if it's proper GS or worse - if it is, she'd still be great value at the current 50s. If the ground does dry out, I'd replace her or RDM with Saint Are (taken the 66s NRNB). Can definitely ignore his 2 runs (PUs) this season on unsuitable ground and over "unfamiliar" objects (hurdles and XC). Assuming he's fit (happy to trust Tom George) and were the ground to come right for him, he'll no doubt come alive again back at Aintree and, to my reckoning, have a great chance at the weights. Either way, happy to cash out in due course on Tiger Roll. He'll no doubt continue to be heavily supported but I'm just not comfortable that he's value even at 14s, given that his stats are good but not compelling and are relatively weaker the softer the ground, in addition to course reservations.
Go Conquer reported likely to go for the Topham. If true, that would get Final Nudge in, wherever Vicente runs. If he re-routes to Ayr, Double Ross is next cab off the rank.
Just another statlette for you to mull over while enjoying your cuppa this afternoon:
Looking beyond the almost perennial "Good to Soft (Good places)" official going descriptions and, instead, using the times and Going Stick readings, 3 of the last 10 GNs have been run on ground that could be called genuine Good to Soft or softer (2009, 2013 and 2016). It seems likely to be that way this year (probably akin to the 2009 or 2013 ground). They produced winners with SPs of 100, 66 and 33/1 respectively - the 3 longest-priced winners in those 10 GNs. The average SP for the first 5 home in those 3 softer-ground GNs was 39/1, compared to just under 20/1 for the 7 on quicker ground.
Tread boldly men..........and Len\'s_little_girl of course
Venetia confirms Houblon Des Obeaux will wear blinkers again and be ridden by regular partner Charlie Deutsch. SkyBet trimmed him from 100 to 66 this morning. Sean Bowen on Warrior's Tale (Nicholls & Hemmings), Robbie Dunne on Gas Line Boy.
Milansbar schools well over the Aintree practice fences at Lambourn this morning. "He really enjoyed himself this morning and Bryony was very happy with him.....He jumped beautifully and took to the fences straight away, going in short and long. He did a piece of work afterwards, which was also very pleasing" - Neil King
Having said that, when have you ever heard a trainer with a GN runner say: "He schooled over the Aintree fences today and was shit" ?
No confirmation that I can see, but The Last Samuri out to 36 on Betfair, and nothing trying to back him. Suggest he misses the race
Blimey. If he's out and Pendra and Vicente are re-routed, that gives slots to Road To Riches and Thunder & Roses - fell 7th on Monday. Delusionofgrandeur (also 10.04) next, then Walk In The Mill and Vintage Clouds with 10.03 and both currently OR141 so a ballot will be needed to split them, even if just for order of Reserves. Strewth, I may have to make some room to get Vintage Clouds on the slip.
Sad news about A Genie In Abottle yesterday. A fair few to come out on Monday at Confirmations. Been pissing down for several hours this morning at Goodison Park, 3 miles from the racecourse. Lovely jubbly.
Most bookies should go NRNB within the next few days. I backed Milansbar for a place (4 places) on Betfair at 10/1 and i will back him with The Dutchman in a reverse forecast on the day.
The going on the Grand National course eased to soft (from soft, good to soft in places) on Sunday, with Aintree groundstaff preparing for another week of sunshine and showers.
Although the track was dry on Sunday, Aintree received 13mm of rain on Saturday and more is expected during the week with the unsettled weather across Britain set to continue.
Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said on Sunday: “We’ve been dry today but the National course has eased a touch after the rain yesterday. The Mildmay course has taken the rain really well and is good to soft, soft in places, and it's soft, good to soft in places on the hurdles course.”
Conditions over the past few weeks have made preparing the courses for this week tougher than usual for Tulloch and his team, but he is looking forward to the start of the action.
“The forecast is unsettled for most of the week but there’s nothing we can do about that,” he said.
“It’s not been nice over the last three weeks or so and we’ve had to deal with that and act accordingly, but we’re all looking forward to the racing starting.”
According to accuweather, Aintree got 24mm of rain yesterday. The pictures from Everton, less than 3 miles away, cause me to suspect that's more like it. Reckon Tulloch's got a hole in his bucket.
Hi Peanuts. With just a few days to go, are you able to say how 'likely' to run are my selected horses as things stand? Here they are: Milansbar, Bless the Wings, Saint Are, Baie Des Iles, Vieux Lion Rouge, See You At Midnight, Final Nudge and Houblon Des Obeaux. Most have followed your tips but (foolishly) are not NRNB so fingers crossed that they run. Cheers.
Hi Peanuts. With just a few days to go, are you able to say how 'likely' to run are my selected horses as things stand? Here they are: Milansbar, Bless the Wings, Saint Are, Baie Des Iles, Vieux Lion Rouge, See You At Midnight, Final Nudge and Houblon Des Obeaux. Most have followed your tips but (foolishly) are not NRNB so fingers crossed that they run. Cheers.
Good luck @meldrew66 Good team. All intended to run and are pretty much certain to make the cut with the defections (and sad death of A Genie In Abottle) announced recently. Possibly a slight query about whether Bless The Wings does make the trip over (that's the stated plan but we'll see). I think on the likely ground and given the prices of these, it's a viable plan to have a larger than usual team running for you. Different ways to skin the proverbial. Some years the fancies are less ground-dependent than others. This year's GN is full of ground-sensitive runners, barring Rathvinden who seems unlikely to run. If it were good ground, with Rathvinden presumed to be scratched, my system/nose would cause me to go with just 2 or 3 main interests (Tiger Roll, Saint Are and, possibly, Vicente) but on appreciably slower ground than last year, though the going would rule out a lot more, it gives 6 a (more or less) equal winning stat-score (in no particular order: Houblon Des Obeaux, Final Nudge, Milansbar, I Just Know and [particularly if it were genuinely Soft] Raz De Maree and Baie Des Iles - add in Vintage Clouds on any form of slower ground if he makes the cut). Tiger Roll still has a winning profile on softer ground but it's no stronger that these 7 and weaker the softer it gets, so at 14s (now shorter of course) I'll cash out on TR and take my chances with a larger team. I've also cashed out my 40s NRNB on Raz De Maree but backed him again at 50s as I'm going to take a chance that the ground is soft enough for him. I've also backed Vintage Clouds at 50s (not NRNB because he'll certainly be declared, so I'll have the stake refunded if he doesn't make the line-up). So I'll have 6 or 7 on my slip, ranging between 50 and 125/1. 1 place in the first 5 will more or less breakeven but I'm obviously aiming for the winner, plus at least 1 more to pay off. Please God - keep it raining up there!
Might have to reevaluate my team and add one, possibly two more then. Cheers PM!
Will you be posting a summary of selections ahead of time? I don't think most people follow this thread from when it's posted up until the big day - I reckon your own morning decs would be hugely appreciated!
Might have to reevaluate my team and add one, possibly two more then. Cheers PM!
Will you be posting a summary of selections ahead of time? I don't think most people follow this thread from when it's posted up until the big day - I reckon your own morning decs would be hugely appreciated!
You're on a roll Chief so don't change your plans on account of me I'm a bit tied up today and tomorrow but will post a summary later in the week. I'll have a stop watch on the Foxhunters on Thursday to check how the ground's riding.
Might have to reevaluate my team and add one, possibly two more then. Cheers PM!
Will you be posting a summary of selections ahead of time? I don't think most people follow this thread from when it's posted up until the big day - I reckon your own morning decs would be hugely appreciated!
You're on a roll Chief so don't change your plans on account of me I'm a bit tied up today and tomorrow but will post a summary later in the week. I'll have a stop watch on the Foxhunters on Thursday to check how the ground's riding.
Cheers boss! But no, you simply know this race better than most, and if you advocate perhaps having six or seven on your slip, one more (after careful consultation of this thread/my own research/my gurus and lamas) probably wouldn't go amiss.
It's more a reinforcement than a change Anyway, I'm looking forward to the week ahead!
Good Afternoon Peanuts, great read and knowledge as ever, I’m still undecided yet on who will be carrying my money this year but wish everyone luck.
Just seen that Chevely Park Stud owners David & Patricia Thompson have purchased Seeyouatmidnight to give themselves a runner in the race
They owned Party Politics (1992 winner, 1995 runner-up) but have since put the mockers on several certain runners they've purchased late on (Le Mercurey and Highland Lodge last year, Character Building a few years back). For every buyer there's a seller @Addick Addict . This one's the trainer's wife
Good Afternoon Peanuts, great read and knowledge as ever, I’m still undecided yet on who will be carrying my money this year but wish everyone luck.
Just seen that Chevely Park Stud owners David & Patricia Thompson have purchased Seeyouatmidnight to give themselves a runner in the race
Thanks Smiffy and it's all falling into place especially as Party Politics in those colours brought me one of my most memorable GN winners - albeit one of only a handful unfortunately. It's not too late for you to get back involved PM!
Good Afternoon Peanuts, great read and knowledge as ever, I’m still undecided yet on who will be carrying my money this year but wish everyone luck.
Just seen that Chevely Park Stud owners David & Patricia Thompson have purchased Seeyouatmidnight to give themselves a runner in the race
Thanks Smiffy and it's all falling into place especially as Party Politics in those colours brought me one of my most memorable GN winners - albeit one of only a handful unfortunately. It's not too late for you to get back involved PM!
Genuinely best of luck AA but if I add another one to my list I'll be doing a "Gigginstown"
Peanuts... with so many horses on your shortlist have you considered backing them for a place on Betfair instead of E/W with a bookie? I know they only pay four places but the odds are considerably better than betting E/W and you potentially have four winners.
Comments
Totally agree with you about Baie Des Iles In fact, I followed you when you picked her out early on and took 66s NRNB then, originally in case the ground got really testing but it's not a given that she'd need it bottomless to be a serious contender, providing there's reasonable cut.
Stats are against: no mare has won the GN since 1951, no 7 year-old since 1940, though some have run very creditably in recent times (notably Big Fella Thanks, Saint Are and Cause of Causes).
But BDI's no ordinary 7 year-old and, of course, being French-bred is a helpful factor.
As a 5 year-old was 6th in Irish GN and 5th in Native River's Welsh GN (with 11.00). A win and 2 places in her 3 other runs at 28~29.5f, all staying-on on Soft~Heavy. Never tried further or on better than Y/Soft (at least over fences). Never failed to complete in 12 chases.
Her 3rd last time out in the Irish GN Trial, giving 10lbs+ to Folsom Blue and Isleofhopendreams looking good after Monday.
10.07 to carry, reasonable mark. 3 runs in the season, the last 62 days prior - fine.
With Rathvinden out, I'll keep the interest in her certainly if it's proper GS or worse - if it is, she'd still be great value at the current 50s.
If the ground does dry out, I'd replace her or RDM with Saint Are (taken the 66s NRNB). Can definitely ignore his 2 runs (PUs) this season on unsuitable ground and over "unfamiliar" objects (hurdles and XC). Assuming he's fit (happy to trust Tom George) and were the ground to come right for him, he'll no doubt come alive again back at Aintree and, to my reckoning, have a great chance at the weights.
Either way, happy to cash out in due course on Tiger Roll. He'll no doubt continue to be heavily supported but I'm just not comfortable that he's value even at 14s, given that his stats are good but not compelling and are relatively weaker the softer the ground, in addition to course reservations.
HDO down from 125 to 80 with the Magic Sign.
Just another statlette for you to mull over while enjoying your cuppa this afternoon:
Looking beyond the almost perennial "Good to Soft (Good places)" official going descriptions and, instead, using the times and Going Stick readings, 3 of the last 10 GNs have been run on ground that could be called genuine Good to Soft or softer (2009, 2013 and 2016). It seems likely to be that way this year (probably akin to the 2009 or 2013 ground).
They produced winners with SPs of 100, 66 and 33/1 respectively - the 3 longest-priced winners in those 10 GNs.
The average SP for the first 5 home in those 3 softer-ground GNs was 39/1, compared to just under 20/1 for the 7 on quicker ground.
Tread boldly men..........and Len\'s_little_girl of course
Nudging closer to Walk In The Mill.
SkyBet trimmed him from 100 to 66 this morning.
Sean Bowen on Warrior's Tale (Nicholls & Hemmings), Robbie Dunne on Gas Line Boy.
First course map available with going as at yesterday afternoon.
Official description
GN: Soft - but has a few GS places
Mildmay: Soft (GS places)
"He really enjoyed himself this morning and Bryony was very happy with him.....He jumped beautifully and took to the fences straight away, going in short and long. He did a piece of work afterwards, which was also very pleasing" - Neil King
Having said that, when have you ever heard a trainer with a GN runner say: "He schooled over the Aintree fences today and was shit" ?
Strewth, I may have to make some room to get Vintage Clouds on the slip.
A fair few to come out on Monday at Confirmations.
Been pissing down for several hours this morning at Goodison Park, 3 miles from the racecourse. Lovely jubbly.
Now that is confidence
The going on the Grand National course eased to soft (from soft, good to soft in places) on Sunday, with Aintree groundstaff preparing for another week of sunshine and showers.
Although the track was dry on Sunday, Aintree received 13mm of rain on Saturday and more is expected during the week with the unsettled weather across Britain set to continue.
Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said on Sunday: “We’ve been dry today but the National course has eased a touch after the rain yesterday. The Mildmay course has taken the rain really well and is good to soft, soft in places, and it's soft, good to soft in places on the hurdles course.”
Conditions over the past few weeks have made preparing the courses for this week tougher than usual for Tulloch and his team, but he is looking forward to the start of the action.
“The forecast is unsettled for most of the week but there’s nothing we can do about that,” he said.
“It’s not been nice over the last three weeks or so and we’ve had to deal with that and act accordingly, but we’re all looking forward to the racing starting.”
According to accuweather, Aintree got 24mm of rain yesterday. The pictures from Everton, less than 3 miles away, cause me to suspect that's more like it. Reckon Tulloch's got a hole in his bucket.
Milansbar, Bless the Wings, Saint Are, Baie Des Iles, Vieux Lion Rouge, See You At Midnight, Final Nudge and Houblon Des Obeaux. Most have followed your tips but (foolishly) are not NRNB so fingers crossed that they run. Cheers.
All intended to run and are pretty much certain to make the cut with the defections (and sad death of A Genie In Abottle) announced recently. Possibly a slight query about whether Bless The Wings does make the trip over (that's the stated plan but we'll see).
I think on the likely ground and given the prices of these, it's a viable plan to have a larger than usual team running for you. Different ways to skin the proverbial. Some years the fancies are less ground-dependent than others. This year's GN is full of ground-sensitive runners, barring Rathvinden who seems unlikely to run.
If it were good ground, with Rathvinden presumed to be scratched, my system/nose would cause me to go with just 2 or 3 main interests (Tiger Roll, Saint Are and, possibly, Vicente) but on appreciably slower ground than last year, though the going would rule out a lot more, it gives 6 a (more or less) equal winning stat-score (in no particular order: Houblon Des Obeaux, Final Nudge, Milansbar, I Just Know and [particularly if it were genuinely Soft] Raz De Maree and Baie Des Iles - add in Vintage Clouds on any form of slower ground if he makes the cut).
Tiger Roll still has a winning profile on softer ground but it's no stronger that these 7 and weaker the softer it gets, so at 14s (now shorter of course) I'll cash out on TR and take my chances with a larger team.
I've also cashed out my 40s NRNB on Raz De Maree but backed him again at 50s as I'm going to take a chance that the ground is soft enough for him. I've also backed Vintage Clouds at 50s (not NRNB because he'll certainly be declared, so I'll have the stake refunded if he doesn't make the line-up).
So I'll have 6 or 7 on my slip, ranging between 50 and 125/1. 1 place in the first 5 will more or less breakeven but I'm obviously aiming for the winner, plus at least 1 more to pay off.
Please God - keep it raining up there!
Will you be posting a summary of selections ahead of time? I don't think most people follow this thread from when it's posted up until the big day - I reckon your own morning decs would be hugely appreciated!
I'm a bit tied up today and tomorrow but will post a summary later in the week. I'll have a stop watch on the Foxhunters on Thursday to check how the ground's riding.
It's more a reinforcement than a change
Just seen that Chevely Park Stud owners David & Patricia Thompson have purchased Seeyouatmidnight to give themselves a runner in the race
For every buyer there's a seller @Addick Addict . This one's the trainer's wife