Following 7 N/Rs there are 99 runners in total at Fairyhouse today:
Willie Mullins & Gordon Elliott - 51 runners The other 37 trainers - 48 runners
And the Irish wonder why so many trainers are going to the wall.
Something has to be done - and it's of course the owners, not the trainers that are the problem - and one in particular of course.
Limiting the number of runners in a race in the same ownership, and/or coupling, although the latter would likely ruin races as betting events. It is absolutely in the interests of the various turf authorities to have a thriving industry and a competitive product and if it means the likes of O'Leary reduce their participation (or leave the industry completely) then that would be an added bonus.
Dear oh dear, poor old Folsom Blue. Nothing was going to get past him until Bellshill took him out. What a waste to run BTW. Oh well, Gordon's got his win at last.
Dear oh dear, poor old Folsom Blue. Nothing was going to get past him until Bellshill took him out. What a waste to run BTW. Oh well, Gordon's got his win at last.
Following 7 N/Rs there are 99 runners in total at Fairyhouse today:
Willie Mullins & Gordon Elliott - 51 runners The other 37 trainers - 48 runners
And the Irish wonder why so many trainers are going to the wall.
Something has to be done - and it's of course the owners, not the trainers that are the problem - and one in particular of course.
Limiting the number of runners in a race in the same ownership, and/or coupling, although the latter would likely ruin races as betting events. It is absolutely in the interests of the various turf authorities to have a thriving industry and a competitive product and if it means the likes of O'Leary reduce their participation (or leave the industry completely) then that would be an added bonus.
If they have that many horses how can ‘they’ train them?
With 11 days to go, for anyone interested, and as I’m going to be a bit busy on other things for the next week, an update on my thinking and positioning:
• I’ve cashed out on SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT, for the reasons mentioned earlier. I totally respect @AddickAddict keeping faith and SYAM should go very well but, in my view, the weather-enforced delay in his return to the racecourse means he’s unlikely to be 100% ready to be seeing off all opposition come the Elbow.
• BLESS THE WINGS ran yesterday (PU 2nd circuit on atrocious ground). Improbable that he’ll run again in 12 days and it’s dented his GN stat-profile anyway so I’ve cashed out on him too.
• So, largely back to square one for me, with only FINAL NUDGE at 66/1 remaining of my original selections. Still ticks the boxes regardless of ground but he may or may not make the cut at #46.
• Happily, with preps completed, several others (listed earlier) with similarly strong GN stat-profiles have emerged on my radar screen, though the one with the strongest profile may not line up and most of the others need meaningful cut.
• They may well get it. It seems likely that the ground on 14 April will be (at best) proper Good to Soft (Going Stick c. 6.0, like 2013, and meaningfully slower than last year). Not currently forecast but, if there were appreciable rain during the meeting, especially on the Saturday (accuweather: light morning shower possible), it could quickly become Soft.
• With that in mind, and with many of those now with strong profiles at long odds, I’ve been taking prices (e/w 5 places ¼ odds), enabling a potentially larger-than-usual team, rather than wait for the 6th place to be more widely offered (as it’s usually accompanied by trimmed odds).
So, in expectation of the ground being proper Good to Soft or worse, my shillings shall be carried by (in card, not preference, order): • #19 RATHVINDEN at 25/1 NRNB (but not expected to run – if he doesn’t, TIGER ROLL to sub if ground quicker than anticipated) • #33 RAZ DE MAREE at 40/1 NRNB (may cash out if ground too quick) • #34 I JUST KNOW at 50/1 • #43 HOUBLON DES OBEAUX at 125/1 • #45 MILANSBAR at 50/1 NRNB • #46 FINAL NUDGE at 66/1 (needs a final nudge to make the cut)
RATHVINDEN – currently 20/1 NRNB Ground preference: Any According to my (old) stat-model he’d have the best profile of all GN runners this year, regardless of ground, though his relative advantage declines the softer the going. The problem is that he would be a surprise runner, since Mullins stated after his Festival win that the 2019 GN would be the target. If he does take his chance this time, I’d definitely want him on my slip. Reasons: • Would carry a very winnable-with 10.12 • Though a “novice” until the end of the season (it’s 60 years since a novice won the GN, though they’re not common GN runners), Rathvinden is a mature one at 10 years old. Indeed, he’s made 1 more chase start than had Many Clouds and One For Arthur before their GN wins. • His career was interrupted by injury for effectively 3 years but he’s made up for lost time with a busy and consistently decent campaign since last May, in which he’s won or near-missed (<4L) in 8 of 11 chases (in 2 of the other 3, was hampered or brought down) – one of these a novice Grade 1, 3L behind now 159-rated Death Duty (Rathvinden’s GN OR is 150). His 73% win (or near-miss) strike rate from 11 is comparable to Many Clouds (70% from 10) before he won the 2015 GN. • Unlike Many Clouds, Rathvinden has a win beyond 26f on his CV, when gamely staying on to take the 4m chase at the Festival on testing ground (firmly ticking the stamina box). The last winner of the Festival 4-miler to line up a few weeks later for a GN was Cause Of Causes who, as just a 7 y-o, came home a highly creditable 8th (27L) in 2015. It’s a myth that a big run at Cheltenham precludes one in the subsequent GN: in recent years alone, Sunnyhillboy (2nd 2012 GN), Pineau de Re (won 2014), Balthazar King (2nd 2014) and Cause Of Causes (2nd 2017) all won or near-missed (<1L) over 3m+ at the preceding Festival and with a week shorter gap than this year. • 9 runs (7 wins or near-misses) since 1 July, the last 32 days prior, are both pluses stats-wise – reminiscent of Pineau de Re (6 wins or near-misses from 9 – the last 23 days) prior to his 2014 GN win. It’s also a myth that a horse needs to come to a GN “fresh”. All horses are different of course but the majority of the last 22 GN winners (12) had raced at least 6 times beforehand that season (17 of the 22, and 10 of those 12 with busy campaigns, had their last run 35 days or less prior to the GN). • Versatile as to going - won on both quick and heavy ground I reckon Rathvinden comfortably to be the best of the Irish contenders at the GN weights. Phil Smith now makes him 4lbs well-in and Tiger Roll 2lbs well-in but, on collateral form (albeit over 2.5~3.5m), I make Rathvinden to be rather more than just 2lbs better off with Tiger Roll. However, they may not lock horns at Aintree and if Rathvinden doesn’t run and the ground dries out to be broadly similar to last year’s, for lack of alternatives I’d have to sub him with Tiger Roll (whom I’ve backed at 14s but, otherwise, will be cashing out).
EDIT Accuweather forecast now showing occasional light rain all 3 days of meeting.
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX – currently 125/1 (100/1 NRNB) Ground preference: genuine GS or softer • Obviously a triple-digit price comes with associated risk but this fellow has the stat-profile to provide a massive shock on 14 April if he gets his ground. • Formerly competitive in high-class company. Was close 2nd (3.25L) to Many Clouds (lumping top-weight and giving the future GN winner 6lbs) in the 2014 Hennessy. Then beaten by (giving 1lb to) Coneygree by 7L, a month before Coneygree took the 2015 GC so impressively. • He’s no longer that horse and has come way down the handicap from OR162 then to the current OR144 but, as a result, he’ll carry just 10.06 (he’s never carried less than 10.12 over fences). • That handicap descent doesn’t mean he hasn’t run creditably in defeat in a number of big staying handicaps – 3 times last season: o 3rd (17L behind future GC winner Native River), lumping 11.07 in the 2016 Welsh GN on Soft, staying on one-paced (OR153) o 4th (20L), again staying-on, in 2017 Warwick National over 29f on Soft (won by One For Arthur, in receipt of 12 lbs from HDO – his next race being his GN win off 11lb higher mark) o 4th (9.25L) with topweight of 11.12 (OR144) in the 2017 Midlands National over 33.5f on Soft, once again staying-on one-paced, giving 14lbs to winner Chase The Spud (receives 5lbs from The Spud at Aintree) His Welsh GN 3rd is a strong GN stat (a meaningful stamina endorser). Since 1988, 8 GN winners and 10 others making the first 4 home, having won or been placed in the WN. Only 1 (The Thinker) had carried more weight than HDO in the WN and none of those 18 making the GN frame ran with as big a drop in absolute weight (-15lbs) than HDO will (Final Nudge will match him, if he gets in). • Ran in last year’s GN on ground too quick for him. Carried 10.12, held up in rear, negotiated fences and fallers nicely enough before staying on past 10 others in the last ½ mile to finish 42L 10th. • A busy but lower-profile campaign this season. As usual, he went well and won first time out but the most notable run may be 3 races ago, when lumping 12.04 in a 25f chase and coming home a strong-finishing 3rd (0.75L) behind Regal Flow (giving him 20lbs). Regal Flow has just won by 10L the Midlands National on heavy ground off a 9lb higher mark, following which RF’s gone up another 10lbs to OR145. • Ran poorly on desperate ground in the Eider in February (PU) but much better in his final prep last weekend in first-time blinkers, tapped for toe but staying on well to be 5.5L 3rd in a 3m veterans chase. • An 11 year-old (3 of the last 6 GN winners were 11 y-o) • 38 chases in his career (making the frame in 50%). That’s certainly high mileage for a recent-times’ GN winner (though 12 y-o Amberleigh House had run in 37 chases prior to his 2004 GN win and Montys Pass in 41 prior to his in 2003). Despite this, HDO’s form this season suggests he remains game and competitive off his lower mark (will be interesting to see if he’s declared to run again with blinkers). • 6 runs in the season (1 win, 2 places), the last 20 days prior – ticks the boxes.
HDO used to go best when fresh but, barring the occasional poor run, there’s been more consistency to his performances with age. He could disappoint (2nd-time blinkers may spook him rather than help on this occasion) but, if the ground is soft enough to enable him to stay reasonably handy, we might just witness the most extraordinary case of deja vu.
Because, heralding from the same yard, Mon Mome won the 2009 GN at 100/1 and:
• He too had previously been placed (2nd) in a Welsh National • He too had finished 10th (58L) on ground too quick for him in the GN the year prior to winning it on rain-softened ground. • Mon Mome’s season’s record prior to his GN win? 6 runs (1 win, 2 places), the last 21 days prior.
Spooky or what?.........Hold on to your seats folks!
MILANSBAR – currently 50/1 NRNB Ground preference: genuine GS or softer Though he needs a few to come out, Milansbar should make the cut and, if history isn’t to be made by a novice winning a GN for the first time in 60 years or by “Venetia déjà vu”, providing he gets his ground, Milansbar has a serious chance to do so with the first winning female jockey on board. • 11 years old, set to carry just 10.05 (OR143) • 16 chases, all 3m+. After a promising start to his chase career (close 2nd in the 2016 Midlands National on Soft as topweight with 11.12 (OR145) in just his 5th start over fences and ran creditably when outpaced in the Scottish National), he lost his way somewhat last season. • Started this season more promisingly but, after another poorish show in the Welsh GN, came an apparent watershed moment with the application of blinkers for the Warwick National in January - made all with 11.02 on Soft to win with Bryony Frost on board for the first time (OR134). She got a really good tune out of him that day and it’s a big plus to have her on board at Aintree. • Blinkers and prominent tactics seem to have galvanised Milansbar but he was ridden far too aggressively (Jamie Moore) next time on desperate ground in the Eider, attempting to make all again with 11.06 but not getting home (plugged on to be 5th). A more measured ride saw him repeat his 2nd in the Midlands National on Heavy (OR142) last time out, beaten by 10L by the impressive Regal Flow. • Will be facing the GN fences for the first time. He can make mistakes but his only UR in 16 chases was when hampered in the last WN. • 6 runs in the season (1 win, 2 places), the last 28 days prior – ticks the boxes. Don’t be fooled by his not getting home under a clumsy ride at Newcastle. Stamina is his forte and the softer the ground the better his chance (by Milan, sire of One For Arthur). Like HDO, he’d want it no quicker than proper GS to get into a rhythm with his jumping, remain handy and minimise traffic-problems.
RAZ DE MAREE – currently 50/1 (40/1 NRNB) Ground preference: the softer the better Don’t fancy any of those possible history-makers? How about the first 13 y-o winner for 95 years? • Forget an upper age limit if the ground at Aintree is Soft - Vics Canvas came mighty close to winning it as a 13 y-o in 2016 on Soft. It’s true that Vic had low mileage for his age but, in his last run in January, RDM made history as the oldest ever winner of the (70 year-old) Welsh GN (with 10.10 on Heavy, OR140). If it’s Soft ground on 14 April, the stats suggest he’d be in with a big shout of repeating Corbiere’s (1982/83) and Earth Summit’s (1997/98) feat of same-season Welsh and Aintree GN wins. • He earned a career-high RPR156 for that Chepstow win but it was no fluke. The year prior, he’d finished like a train and almost caught Native River (2nd 1.75L) on Soft. On paper, on that WN form, he’s about level with HDO at the GN weights. • Twice winner of the 3.5m Cork National (2012 on Soft and 2016 on “Good”, but really GS) and staying on 2nd (9L) in the 2015 Midlands National over 33.5f on Soft, RDM may only have one gear but he excels in a test of stamina, providing the ground’s not to quick that he’s cast adrift, as happened a month later when PU in the 2015 Scottish National on quick ground. • 26 chases - similar to Mon Mome (24) and Auroras Encore (23) but well short of the chase starts by Amberleigh House (37) and Montys Pass (41) before their GN wins. • Due to carry 10.08 (OR145), 1lb less than when UR in last year’s quick-ground GN, ducking left to dodge a faller at Bechers. • Ran in the 2014 GN, outpaced on ground too quick but staying-on typically strongly at the death to finish 8th (38L). Handled the occasion and, though sticky at times on the 1st circuit, the fences well enough. • 4 runs in the season (1 win, 2 places), the last his WN victory, 98 days prior – a bit of a break by GN winning standards but One For Arthur hadn’t run since his Warwick National win 84 days prior. Despite his limited cruising speed, which could expose him to traffic problems again at Aintree, depending on the ground, RDM showed an amazing turn of foot at the end of both WN runs - seemed he could have gone round again both times. Even if he’s 20L adrift at the last, don’t count him out.
EDIT - Robbie Power (GN winner on Silver Birch in 2007 and 2017 GC and Irish GN winning jockey) booked to ride RDM. Trainer reported to be doing a rain dance.
I JUST KNOW – currently 33/1 NRNB Ground preference: proper GS or softer but handles decent ground A win for I Just Know would make Sue Smith only the second woman to train 2 GN winners after Jenny Pitman (though Mrs P would no doubt claim Esha Ness as the tie-breaker) and he’s been heavily backed down from 150/1 by shrewd punters on to him early, though he has to handle a sizeable step up in company and handicap mark. • An 8 year-old. 8 y-os doing much better in post 2012 GNs – 2 of last 3 winners, including One For Arthur, of whose profile IJK’s is reminiscent. • Due to carry a winnable-with 10.07 (OR145), though his mark represents a 14lb rise after winning last chase start. One For Arthur won after an 11lb rise and, like him, IJK appears sufficiently progressive potentially to defy the rise. • That last chase win (by 15L) was impressive, making-all with 11.10 on Soft in the 30f North Yorkshire GN at Catterick in January, ticking the stamina box (stamina also evident in pedigree) • 10 chases to date (9 at 3m+), like Arthur, but IJK has a better win (and near-miss) strike rate of 56% at 3m+ and a much superior rate for making the frame (80% vs 50%). • 4 runs in the season (yes you’ve guessed it, 1 win and 2 places), the last being a pleasing spin over hurdles 31 days prior – in the sweet spot stats-wise. I Just Know would be at his best on proper GS or softer for his stamina to come into play, but he showed at Ayr last April in a Class 2 novice handicap that he can travel and jump comfortably on genuine good ground. He was ahead of Final Nudge that day (also travelled well) but, on that run and if he gets in, Final Nudge would have a “pull” at their respective GN weights.
So there we go folks. All the best to you, whichever horses you back. As always, let’s hope this is a GN that makes the right sort of headlines and, from purely a personal point of view, another one with 100/1 winner in large type would be particularly pleasing
Agree about Houblon Des Obeaux....the only negative I have is him being too exposed. But perhaps that is offset by the fact he's come down a chunk in the weights?! Certainly don't need too much persuading to get involved at triple digit prices anyway!!!
Any recommendations for the online bookies offering e/w 5 places.
My William Hill account only paying first 4.
Cheers
If you want 5 places 1/4 the odds and Non Runner No Bet, you want Bet365 or SkyBet (also best odds guaranteed if SP's bigger) Paddy Power 6 places but 1/5 odds and not NRNB or BOG
Mullins confirms very likely that Total Recall, Pleasant Company and Childrens List will be his only GN runners. Bellshill, Rathvinden and Acapella Bourgeois likely to be scratched. With Cause Of Causes out, that would guarantee Lord Windermere, Captain Redbeard, Houblon Des Obeaux and (assuming Bless The Wings stays at home) Milansbar a run. If it's not good ground, seems likely that Vicente will head to Ayr, which would get Final Nudge in. There are a few also entered for the Topham so softish ground could see one or more go over the shorter trip.
EDIT Seems like Elliott's intending to run Bless The Wings.
Looks like Elliot has confirmed Bless the Wings for Aintree peanuts, Hughes pulled him up early (18th) as he wasn't going on the ground.
From the RP
Cheers Bob. Just seen it. Personally, I don't buy the bullshit from Elliott that Hughes was saving him. 18th (6 from home) ain't early - he'd just clattered one and was looking pretty legless, comfortably behind. Nonetheless he's clearly likely to line up but I'll stick with my stat-system which suggests now, after Monday, that he could put in a decent show but won't be winning it....famous last words!
I never understand why trainers want to miss the National to run somewhere else. If a horse wins a National he is written into the history books forever. Most other races are forgotten the next day.
Giving the latest Aintree going report on Tuesday, clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said: "On the Grand National course we're mainly soft with a couple of heavy places around the Canal Turn and Valentine's Brook. The Mildmay course would be good to soft.
"Sunday and yesterday were pretty horrible, with 22mm of rain yesterday, but the course has taken it well. Although it looks as though we're going to be between 12C and 14C over the coming days, it would be helpful if we could be warmer than that to encourage the grass to start growing.
"We could have showers this week, a few of them heavy, but at this stage it's too far out to be making any predictions about the ground we'll have from next Thursday."
HDO still 100/1 with Coral, put £2.50EW on it, paying 5 places. Thanks in advance Peanuts for the tip.
I really appreciate the vote of confidence @johnnybev1987 He's one that the media "experts" will easily write-off, naturally, but not only is he grossly over-priced given the likely ground but, according to my GN stats-system (ignoring the deja vu), has a genuinely serious chance if it stays soft enough and he can avoid misfortune. Fingers crossed.
HDO still 100/1 with Coral, put £2.50EW on it, paying 5 places. Thanks in advance Peanuts for the tip.
I really appreciate the vote of confidence @johnnybev1987 He's one that the media "experts" will easily write-off, naturally, but not only is he grossly over-priced given the likely ground but, according to my GN stats-system (ignoring the deja vu), has a genuinely serious chance if it stays soft enough and he can avoid misfortune. Fingers crossed.
2 reasons , one as i know with GN you know your stuff. secondly 100/1, will be rude not to at those odds.
Right. My likely final team of five, which I'm posting as reference/so it's on the record, rather than to go against Peanuts (cos who in their right mind would do that lol):
- Baie Des Iles @ 50/1 NRNB (absolutely praying praying praying she gets the ground she needs - only 7 but Katie Walsh specifically went for her I believe out of quite a few options)
- Final Nudge @ 50/1 NRNB (All faith in PM)
- Bless The Wings @ 50/1 NRNB (not actually that concerned about his last two runs. One was bad luck, the other was the ground - apparently - and let's face it, price is price for a reason)
- Houblon des Obeaux @ 100/1 NRNB (Peanuts makes a very good case - also let's face it, who doesn't love triple digit prices!)
- Milansbar @ 33/1 NRNB (With Bryony Frost on board, who guided him to a very attractive win in first-time blinkers [I think, or some other apparel] at Warwick in Jan, and hoping very much for the cut - plus, of course, Peanuts and Killer Kish have mentioned!)
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Depending on any NRs or unexpected windfalls, I will also have a look at Rathvinden and/or Vieux Lion Rouge.
Comments
F**k it. I'll stick a few bob on Mall Dini and, hopefully, enjoy him scuppering the pair of 'em.
Limiting the number of runners in a race in the same ownership, and/or coupling, although the latter would likely ruin races as betting events. It is absolutely in the interests of the various turf authorities to have a thriving industry and a competitive product and if it means the likes of O'Leary reduce their participation (or leave the industry completely) then that would be an added bonus.
What a waste to run BTW. Oh well, Gordon's got his win at last.
• I’ve cashed out on SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT, for the reasons mentioned earlier. I totally respect @AddickAddict keeping faith and SYAM should go very well but, in my view, the weather-enforced delay in his return to the racecourse means he’s unlikely to be 100% ready to be seeing off all opposition come the Elbow.
• BLESS THE WINGS ran yesterday (PU 2nd circuit on atrocious ground). Improbable that he’ll run again in 12 days and it’s dented his GN stat-profile anyway so I’ve cashed out on him too.
• So, largely back to square one for me, with only FINAL NUDGE at 66/1 remaining of my original selections. Still ticks the boxes regardless of ground but he may or may not make the cut at #46.
• Happily, with preps completed, several others (listed earlier) with similarly strong GN stat-profiles have emerged on my radar screen, though the one with the strongest profile may not line up and most of the others need meaningful cut.
• They may well get it. It seems likely that the ground on 14 April will be (at best) proper Good to Soft (Going Stick c. 6.0, like 2013, and meaningfully slower than last year). Not currently forecast but, if there were appreciable rain during the meeting, especially on the Saturday (accuweather: light morning shower possible), it could quickly become Soft.
• With that in mind, and with many of those now with strong profiles at long odds, I’ve been taking prices (e/w 5 places ¼ odds), enabling a potentially larger-than-usual team, rather than wait for the 6th place to be more widely offered (as it’s usually accompanied by trimmed odds).
So, in expectation of the ground being proper Good to Soft or worse, my shillings shall be carried by (in card, not preference, order):
• #19 RATHVINDEN at 25/1 NRNB (but not expected to run – if he doesn’t, TIGER ROLL to sub if ground quicker than anticipated)
• #33 RAZ DE MAREE at 40/1 NRNB (may cash out if ground too quick)
• #34 I JUST KNOW at 50/1
• #43 HOUBLON DES OBEAUX at 125/1
• #45 MILANSBAR at 50/1 NRNB
• #46 FINAL NUDGE at 66/1 (needs a final nudge to make the cut)
RATHVINDEN – currently 20/1 NRNB
Ground preference: Any
According to my (old) stat-model he’d have the best profile of all GN runners this year, regardless of ground, though his relative advantage declines the softer the going. The problem is that he would be a surprise runner, since Mullins stated after his Festival win that the 2019 GN would be the target. If he does take his chance this time, I’d definitely want him on my slip. Reasons:
• Would carry a very winnable-with 10.12
• Though a “novice” until the end of the season (it’s 60 years since a novice won the GN, though they’re not common GN runners), Rathvinden is a mature one at 10 years old. Indeed, he’s made 1 more chase start than had Many Clouds and One For Arthur before their GN wins.
• His career was interrupted by injury for effectively 3 years but he’s made up for lost time with a busy and consistently decent campaign since last May, in which he’s won or near-missed (<4L) in 8 of 11 chases (in 2 of the other 3, was hampered or brought down) – one of these a novice Grade 1, 3L behind now 159-rated Death Duty (Rathvinden’s GN OR is 150). His 73% win (or near-miss) strike rate from 11 is comparable to Many Clouds (70% from 10) before he won the 2015 GN.
• Unlike Many Clouds, Rathvinden has a win beyond 26f on his CV, when gamely staying on to take the 4m chase at the Festival on testing ground (firmly ticking the stamina box). The last winner of the Festival 4-miler to line up a few weeks later for a GN was Cause Of Causes who, as just a 7 y-o, came home a highly creditable 8th (27L) in 2015. It’s a myth that a big run at Cheltenham precludes one in the subsequent GN: in recent years alone, Sunnyhillboy (2nd 2012 GN), Pineau de Re (won 2014), Balthazar King (2nd 2014) and Cause Of Causes (2nd 2017) all won or near-missed (<1L) over 3m+ at the preceding Festival and with a week shorter gap than this year.
• 9 runs (7 wins or near-misses) since 1 July, the last 32 days prior, are both pluses stats-wise – reminiscent of Pineau de Re (6 wins or near-misses from 9 – the last 23 days) prior to his 2014 GN win. It’s also a myth that a horse needs to come to a GN “fresh”. All horses are different of course but the majority of the last 22 GN winners (12) had raced at least 6 times beforehand that season (17 of the 22, and 10 of those 12 with busy campaigns, had their last run 35 days or less prior to the GN).
• Versatile as to going - won on both quick and heavy ground
I reckon Rathvinden comfortably to be the best of the Irish contenders at the GN weights. Phil Smith now makes him 4lbs well-in and Tiger Roll 2lbs well-in but, on collateral form (albeit over 2.5~3.5m), I make Rathvinden to be rather more than just 2lbs better off with Tiger Roll. However, they may not lock horns at Aintree and if Rathvinden doesn’t run and the ground dries out to be broadly similar to last year’s, for lack of alternatives I’d have to sub him with Tiger Roll (whom I’ve backed at 14s but, otherwise, will be cashing out).
EDIT Accuweather forecast now showing occasional light rain all 3 days of meeting.
To be continued ………
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX – currently 125/1 (100/1 NRNB)
Ground preference: genuine GS or softer
• Obviously a triple-digit price comes with associated risk but this fellow has the stat-profile to provide a massive shock on 14 April if he gets his ground.
• Formerly competitive in high-class company. Was close 2nd (3.25L) to Many Clouds (lumping top-weight and giving the future GN winner 6lbs) in the 2014 Hennessy. Then beaten by (giving 1lb to) Coneygree by 7L, a month before Coneygree took the 2015 GC so impressively.
• He’s no longer that horse and has come way down the handicap from OR162 then to the current OR144 but, as a result, he’ll carry just 10.06 (he’s never carried less than 10.12 over fences).
• That handicap descent doesn’t mean he hasn’t run creditably in defeat in a number of big staying handicaps – 3 times last season:
o 3rd (17L behind future GC winner Native River), lumping 11.07 in the 2016 Welsh GN on Soft, staying on one-paced (OR153)
o 4th (20L), again staying-on, in 2017 Warwick National over 29f on Soft (won by One For Arthur, in receipt of 12 lbs from HDO – his next race being his GN win off 11lb higher mark)
o 4th (9.25L) with topweight of 11.12 (OR144) in the 2017 Midlands National over 33.5f on Soft, once again staying-on one-paced, giving 14lbs to winner Chase The Spud (receives 5lbs from The Spud at Aintree)
His Welsh GN 3rd is a strong GN stat (a meaningful stamina endorser). Since 1988, 8 GN winners and 10 others making the first 4 home, having won or been placed in the WN. Only 1 (The Thinker) had carried more weight than HDO in the WN and none of those 18 making the GN frame ran with as big a drop in absolute weight (-15lbs) than HDO will (Final Nudge will match him, if he gets in).
• Ran in last year’s GN on ground too quick for him. Carried 10.12, held up in rear, negotiated fences and fallers nicely enough before staying on past 10 others in the last ½ mile to finish 42L 10th.
• A busy but lower-profile campaign this season. As usual, he went well and won first time out but the most notable run may be 3 races ago, when lumping 12.04 in a 25f chase and coming home a strong-finishing 3rd (0.75L) behind Regal Flow (giving him 20lbs). Regal Flow has just won by 10L the Midlands National on heavy ground off a 9lb higher mark, following which RF’s gone up another 10lbs to OR145.
• Ran poorly on desperate ground in the Eider in February (PU) but much better in his final prep last weekend in first-time blinkers, tapped for toe but staying on well to be 5.5L 3rd in a 3m veterans chase.
• An 11 year-old (3 of the last 6 GN winners were 11 y-o)
• 38 chases in his career (making the frame in 50%). That’s certainly high mileage for a recent-times’ GN winner (though 12 y-o Amberleigh House had run in 37 chases prior to his 2004 GN win and Montys Pass in 41 prior to his in 2003). Despite this, HDO’s form this season suggests he remains game and competitive off his lower mark (will be interesting to see if he’s declared to run again with blinkers).
• 6 runs in the season (1 win, 2 places), the last 20 days prior – ticks the boxes.
HDO used to go best when fresh but, barring the occasional poor run, there’s been more consistency to his performances with age. He could disappoint (2nd-time blinkers may spook him rather than help on this occasion) but, if the ground is soft enough to enable him to stay reasonably handy, we might just witness the most extraordinary case of deja vu.
Because, heralding from the same yard, Mon Mome won the 2009 GN at 100/1 and:
• He too had previously been placed (2nd) in a Welsh National
• He too had finished 10th (58L) on ground too quick for him in the GN the year prior to winning it on rain-softened ground.
• Mon Mome’s season’s record prior to his GN win? 6 runs (1 win, 2 places), the last 21 days prior.
Spooky or what?.........Hold on to your seats folks!
MILANSBAR – currently 50/1 NRNB
Ground preference: genuine GS or softer
Though he needs a few to come out, Milansbar should make the cut and, if history isn’t to be made by a novice winning a GN for the first time in 60 years or by “Venetia déjà vu”, providing he gets his ground, Milansbar has a serious chance to do so with the first winning female jockey on board.
• 11 years old, set to carry just 10.05 (OR143)
• 16 chases, all 3m+. After a promising start to his chase career (close 2nd in the 2016 Midlands National on Soft as topweight with 11.12 (OR145) in just his 5th start over fences and ran creditably when outpaced in the Scottish National), he lost his way somewhat last season.
• Started this season more promisingly but, after another poorish show in the Welsh GN, came an apparent watershed moment with the application of blinkers for the Warwick National in January - made all with 11.02 on Soft to win with Bryony Frost on board for the first time (OR134). She got a really good tune out of him that day and it’s a big plus to have her on board at Aintree.
• Blinkers and prominent tactics seem to have galvanised Milansbar but he was ridden far too aggressively (Jamie Moore) next time on desperate ground in the Eider, attempting to make all again with 11.06 but not getting home (plugged on to be 5th). A more measured ride saw him repeat his 2nd in the Midlands National on Heavy (OR142) last time out, beaten by 10L by the impressive Regal Flow.
• Will be facing the GN fences for the first time. He can make mistakes but his only UR in 16 chases was when hampered in the last WN.
• 6 runs in the season (1 win, 2 places), the last 28 days prior – ticks the boxes.
Don’t be fooled by his not getting home under a clumsy ride at Newcastle. Stamina is his forte and the softer the ground the better his chance (by Milan, sire of One For Arthur). Like HDO, he’d want it no quicker than proper GS to get into a rhythm with his jumping, remain handy and minimise traffic-problems.
To be continued......
RAZ DE MAREE – currently 50/1 (40/1 NRNB)
Ground preference: the softer the better
Don’t fancy any of those possible history-makers? How about the first 13 y-o winner for 95 years?
• Forget an upper age limit if the ground at Aintree is Soft - Vics Canvas came mighty close to winning it as a 13 y-o in 2016 on Soft. It’s true that Vic had low mileage for his age but, in his last run in January, RDM made history as the oldest ever winner of the (70 year-old) Welsh GN (with 10.10 on Heavy, OR140). If it’s Soft ground on 14 April, the stats suggest he’d be in with a big shout of repeating Corbiere’s (1982/83) and Earth Summit’s (1997/98) feat of same-season Welsh and Aintree GN wins.
• He earned a career-high RPR156 for that Chepstow win but it was no fluke. The year prior, he’d finished like a train and almost caught Native River (2nd 1.75L) on Soft. On paper, on that WN form, he’s about level with HDO at the GN weights.
• Twice winner of the 3.5m Cork National (2012 on Soft and 2016 on “Good”, but really GS) and staying on 2nd (9L) in the 2015 Midlands National over 33.5f on Soft, RDM may only have one gear but he excels in a test of stamina, providing the ground’s not to quick that he’s cast adrift, as happened a month later when PU in the 2015 Scottish National on quick ground.
• 26 chases - similar to Mon Mome (24) and Auroras Encore (23) but well short of the chase starts by Amberleigh House (37) and Montys Pass (41) before their GN wins.
• Due to carry 10.08 (OR145), 1lb less than when UR in last year’s quick-ground GN, ducking left to dodge a faller at Bechers.
• Ran in the 2014 GN, outpaced on ground too quick but staying-on typically strongly at the death to finish 8th (38L). Handled the occasion and, though sticky at times on the 1st circuit, the fences well enough.
• 4 runs in the season (1 win, 2 places), the last his WN victory, 98 days prior – a bit of a break by GN winning standards but One For Arthur hadn’t run since his Warwick National win 84 days prior.
Despite his limited cruising speed, which could expose him to traffic problems again at Aintree, depending on the ground, RDM showed an amazing turn of foot at the end of both WN runs - seemed he could have gone round again both times. Even if he’s 20L adrift at the last, don’t count him out.
EDIT - Robbie Power (GN winner on Silver Birch in 2007 and 2017 GC and Irish GN winning jockey) booked to ride RDM. Trainer reported to be doing a rain dance.
I JUST KNOW – currently 33/1 NRNB
Ground preference: proper GS or softer but handles decent ground
A win for I Just Know would make Sue Smith only the second woman to train 2 GN winners after Jenny Pitman (though Mrs P would no doubt claim Esha Ness as the tie-breaker) and he’s been heavily backed down from 150/1 by shrewd punters on to him early, though he has to handle a sizeable step up in company and handicap mark.
• An 8 year-old. 8 y-os doing much better in post 2012 GNs – 2 of last 3 winners, including One For Arthur, of whose profile IJK’s is reminiscent.
• Due to carry a winnable-with 10.07 (OR145), though his mark represents a 14lb rise after winning last chase start. One For Arthur won after an 11lb rise and, like him, IJK appears sufficiently progressive potentially to defy the rise.
• That last chase win (by 15L) was impressive, making-all with 11.10 on Soft in the 30f North Yorkshire GN at Catterick in January, ticking the stamina box (stamina also evident in pedigree)
• 10 chases to date (9 at 3m+), like Arthur, but IJK has a better win (and near-miss) strike rate of 56% at 3m+ and a much superior rate for making the frame (80% vs 50%).
• 4 runs in the season (yes you’ve guessed it, 1 win and 2 places), the last being a pleasing spin over hurdles 31 days prior – in the sweet spot stats-wise.
I Just Know would be at his best on proper GS or softer for his stamina to come into play, but he showed at Ayr last April in a Class 2 novice handicap that he can travel and jump comfortably on genuine good ground. He was ahead of Final Nudge that day (also travelled well) but, on that run and if he gets in, Final Nudge would have a “pull” at their respective GN weights.
So there we go folks.
All the best to you, whichever horses you back. As always, let’s hope this is a GN that makes the right sort of headlines and, from purely a personal point of view, another one with 100/1 winner in large type would be particularly pleasing
My William Hill account only paying first 4.
Cheers
Paddy Power 6 places but 1/5 odds and not NRNB or BOG
Skybet still 100/1 NRNB and Ladbrokes 125/1 (both 5 places 1/4 odds) if he appeals to you.
Bellshill, Rathvinden and Acapella Bourgeois likely to be scratched.
With Cause Of Causes out, that would guarantee Lord Windermere, Captain Redbeard, Houblon Des Obeaux and (assuming Bless The Wings stays at home) Milansbar a run.
If it's not good ground, seems likely that Vicente will head to Ayr, which would get Final Nudge in.
There are a few also entered for the Topham so softish ground could see one or more go over the shorter trip.
EDIT Seems like Elliott's intending to run Bless The Wings.
From the RP
Personally, I don't buy the bullshit from Elliott that Hughes was saving him. 18th (6 from home) ain't early - he'd just clattered one and was looking pretty legless, comfortably behind.
Nonetheless he's clearly likely to line up but I'll stick with my stat-system which suggests now, after Monday, that he could put in a decent show but won't be winning it....famous last words!
"Sunday and yesterday were pretty horrible, with 22mm of rain yesterday, but the course has taken it well. Although it looks as though we're going to be between 12C and 14C over the coming days, it would be helpful if we could be warmer than that to encourage the grass to start growing.
"We could have showers this week, a few of them heavy, but at this stage it's too far out to be making any predictions about the ground we'll have from next Thursday."
He's one that the media "experts" will easily write-off, naturally, but not only is he grossly over-priced given the likely ground but, according to my GN stats-system (ignoring the deja vu), has a genuinely serious chance if it stays soft enough and he can avoid misfortune.
Fingers crossed.
- Baie Des Iles @ 50/1 NRNB (absolutely praying praying praying she gets the ground she needs - only 7 but Katie Walsh specifically went for her I believe out of quite a few options)
- Final Nudge @ 50/1 NRNB (All faith in PM)
- Bless The Wings @ 50/1 NRNB (not actually that concerned about his last two runs. One was bad luck, the other was the ground - apparently - and let's face it, price is price for a reason)
- Houblon des Obeaux @ 100/1 NRNB (Peanuts makes a very good case - also let's face it, who doesn't love triple digit prices!)
- Milansbar @ 33/1 NRNB (With Bryony Frost on board, who guided him to a very attractive win in first-time blinkers [I think, or some other apparel] at Warwick in Jan, and hoping very much for the cut - plus, of course, Peanuts and Killer Kish have mentioned!)
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Depending on any NRs or unexpected windfalls, I will also have a look at Rathvinden and/or Vieux Lion Rouge.
*gets prayer mat out, faces Mecca*