On the day I’m sure bookies will be offering extra places so that’s the only advantage I see as I very much doubt you will beat the prices you can get now
@Red_James just off the aintree website mate, from memory they go on sale straight after the festival so just keep an eye out, or ill inbox you on here when they do, as i get emails from them.
depending on what you want to spend they vary from £45-215.00, the stands with seats sell out 1st we had just festival enclosure last year ( me and mrs ) and we got on okay, just a bit of hassle trying to get drinks as a LOT of pissed up people pushing in as for the women there are certainly some creatures there. downing bottles of rose in the nearby harvester car park is quite a site ha.
@Red_James just off the aintree website mate, from memory they go on sale straight after the festival so just keep an eye out, or ill inbox you on here when they do, as i get emails from them.
depending on what you want to spend they vary from £45-215.00, the stands with seats sell out 1st we had just festival enclosure last year ( me and mrs ) and we got on okay, just a bit of hassle trying to get drinks as a LOT of pissed up people pushing in as for the women there are certainly some creatures there. downing bottles of rose in the nearby harvester car park is quite a site ha.
Ok thank you, I will keep an eye out and try to sign up for the email register Cheers
Watched that last night as well for the first time. Absolute brilliant when he goes over the last and you can hear the jockey going at it hammer and tong.
I don't understand why Cause of Causes is still available to bet on with most/all bookies.
Because until we reach a forfeit stage it can still run i.e. connections can still change their mind. Plus any bets struck will add to the bookies' bonus pool for those that aren't nrnb. Last price matched on the Betfair exchange was 42 which is double the best price on offer with the bookies which indicates the chances are that it isn't going to run. However, who could forget Kicking King being matched at 1000 following the announcement that it wasn't going to run in the Gold Cup?
Bless The Wings may run at Fairyhouse after all: Elliott said: "We haven't decided if Bless The Wings will have another shot at the race. He's also in the Randox Health Grand National but will need a few to drop out. We'll think about it between now and declaration time for the Irish National on Friday." Gordon doesn't want to be under-represented in the Irish.....he's only got 37% of the field without him.
I don't understand why Cause of Causes is still available to bet on with most/all bookies.
From what's been said @Covered End it's highly unlikely the owner's going to change his mind - whatever one thinks of JP McManus, he looks after his horses whether they're racing or retired. This is what his racing manager said on Monday: “The intention was to go to Liverpool but he won’t be going. He got jarred up (at Cheltenham). He’s not too bad but he won’t be right for this season,” The Irish Times article which quoted him was titled: "Cause Of Causes ruled out for the season and misses Aintree National".
Today's Guardian: Thinks BTW will run at Fairyhouse and speculates that at least down to #45 should get in at Aintree - that's Milansbar. Final Nudge is #46.
Very interesting if so Peanuts as I have been given very strong info on Milansbar if he gets in?
That's very interesting indeed @killer kish - has he schooled particularly well or something? Stats say he could run a massive race if there's proper cut. Not that it's a specifically relevant stat but he won the same race (Warwick National) that One For Arthur won last year of course. And a big plus to have Bryony on board again, as she was that day - looked a new horse with blinkers. If it is proper GS or softer, I'm likely to have a slip with up to 6 runners all currently at 50/1 or bigger. He'd certainly be on it.
PM - Don't suppose there's much hope for The Young Master getting in is there? Think I might have been a bit premature in sweeping up the 600 plus money available immediately following his Cheltenham run!
PM - Don't suppose there's much hope for The Young Master getting in is there? Think I might have been a bit premature in sweeping up the 600 plus money available immediately following his Cheltenham run!
Fraid not @Addick Addict . But if you fancy having one that does line up at a triple digit price with (in my view) a chance of a big run, get on Houblon Des Obeaux, as I have, with Labrokes at 125/1 (5 places). That was an apparently-modest but statistically-significant 5.5L 3rd on Sunday in the 3m veterans chase (tapped for toe but stayed on very gamely in first-time blinkers), which "activated" a number of positive stats for him in my model. He had a sighter in the GN last year on unsuitably quick ground, staying on from the back to finish 10th (btw Mon Mome finished 10th in the GN before his win on rain-softened ground in 2009). He's not the same horse that gave weight to but a close run behind Many Clouds and Coneygree (and ironically The Young Master) 3 seasons ago but off an 18lb lower mark and with just 10.06, he doesn't have to be. What he does need to be is something like the horse that last season stayed on with 11.07 (OR153 compared to 144 on 14 April) to finish 3rd behind Native River on soft in the WN (Mon Mome had also been placed in the WN previously). If he gets ground to suit on 14 April (proper GS or softer) that enables him to race handy, he (and we) could well be in the money.
Addendum. Meant to say, check out his close finish behind Regal Flow (giving him 20lbs) in January. Regal Flow's just won the Midlands Natiobal (with some ease) off a 9lb higher mark.
PM - Don't suppose there's much hope for The Young Master getting in is there? Think I might have been a bit premature in sweeping up the 600 plus money available immediately following his Cheltenham run!
Fraid not @Addick Addict . But if you fancy having one that does line up at a triple digit price with (in my view) a chance of a big run, get on Houblon Des Obeaux, as I have, with Labrokes at 125/1 (5 places). That was an apparently-modest but statistically-significant 5.5L 3rd on Sunday in the 3m veterans chase (tapped for toe but stayed on very gamely in first-time blinkers), which "activated" a number of positive stats for him in my model. He had a sighter in the GN last year on unsuitably quick ground, staying on from the back to finish 10th (btw Mon Mome finished 10th in the GN before his win on rain-softened ground in 2009). He's not the same horse that gave weight to but a close run behind Many Clouds and Coneygree (and ironically The Young Master) 3 seasons ago but off an 18lb lower mark and with just 10.06, he doesn't have to be. What he does need to be is something like the horse that last season stayed on with 11.07 (OR153 compared to 144 on 14 April) to finish 3rd behind Native River on soft in the WN (Mon Mome had also been placed in the WN previously). If he gets ground to suit on 14 April (proper GS or softer) that enables him to race handy, he (and we) could well be in the money.
Thanks PM - HDO is actually already in my portfolio at 140 average on Betfair so here's hoping!
Strewth, I wish these guys would make up their bloody minds. A Genie In Abottle now won't run at Fairyhouse but may go for the GN after all. Not of interest to me if he does except that it means potentially one of the tasty long shots down the weights missing out.
Only Bellshill and Bless The Wings of the realistically possible runners at Aintree declared for the Irish GN. Thunder And Roses, General Principle and, 2nd Reserve, Rogue Angel also declared for Fairyhouse but unlikely to make the cut anyway for Aintree. So, A Genie In Abottle, Pleasant Company and Childrens List, who were thought likely to run at Fairyhouse will not do so and remain Aintree possibles. Elliott has just 13 (a mere 43%) of the 30 runners on Monday. Unless he departs early on Monday, it's almost inconceivable that Bless The Wings will now ever line up for an Aintree GN - a great shame.
Assuming that, with Causes of Causes, these don’t line up at Aintree: Vicente (probably headed to Ayr), Rathvinden (after Cheltenham stated likely to wait for 2019 GN), Bellshill and Bless The Wings, then these 4 would get in on 14 April: All 3 on OR144 (Houblon Des Obeaux, Lord Windermere and Captain Redbeard) and Milansbar. So, Final Nudge would need another 1 to come out and Walk In The Mill at least another 5 (assuming Thunder And Roses doesn't run in both GNs) or 6 if he loses out in a ballot with Vintage Clouds (tied on OR141).
Seems likely @len90 Though large pinch of salt required, accuweather forecasting a very wet Easter weekend at Aintree and an unsettled week ahead (70mm of rainfall in total) but drier and somewhat sunnier during the week of the meeting (possible moderate rain on the Thursday). Obviously they won't be watering but important to note that Aintree has good drainage these days. It's signficant rainfall during the meeting itself that can cause it to get testing for the Big One. If they call it Good to Soft, the important question for me is “what sort of GS?”. Perhaps with “welfare-correctness” in mind, GS(Good places) seems to be the customary official description for a variety of ground for a GN meeting these days (it was the official going for 4 of the 5 GNs after 2012). Yet it can represent effectively Good ground (as in 2015 and 2017, when the Going Stick read 6.6 and both times were faster than standard) or it can represent proper Good to Soft (as in 2013, Going Stick 6.0, when the time was 15.2 seconds slower than the 2015 GN – that’s at least 60L difference between the 2 winners). Those nuances may seem minor but they can matter a great deal, particularly to those horses with stamina to get the trip under any conditions but lacking the speed to stay handy and out of traffic-problems on Good ground. Though they’re far from infallible, I’ll be looking out keenly for the Going Stick readings in the run-up to the race.
Another little statlette to mull over, this one regarding Tiger Roll. Since October 2014, he has had 5 breaks of 60 days or more and on each occasion on his return either won or near-missed (<2L). The last of these was his win in the Festival XC and 31 days later he'll run in the GN. However, here's his record in the subsequent race after the 4 previous breaks: 13 days later - PU 17 days later - 14th of 19 (37L) 34 days later - PU (Irish GN) 17 days later - PU Hmm
Irish GN this afternoon. Can't not have Bless The Wings at 25/1 e/w, despite it being 65 years since a 13 y-o won it and 21 years since one older than 10 did. Barring misfortune, Mall Dini is my idea of the winner but at 9/1, for a dyed-in-the-wool e/w punter, that's too short for my liking with the hurly-burly of an Irish GN. Will be typically attritional on the ground. Let's hope they all come back safe and sound.
Gone completely crazy and backed Squouateur today! Actually some method in the madness....form best on flat tracks, has won twice on heavy including round Fairyhouse. This his 2nd run since a wind op and theory knocking about that that is the time to play such horses.
Comments
depending on what you want to spend they vary from £45-215.00, the stands with seats sell out 1st we had just festival enclosure last year ( me and mrs ) and we got on okay, just a bit of hassle trying to get drinks as a LOT of pissed up people pushing in as for the women there are certainly some creatures there. downing bottles of rose in the nearby harvester car park is quite a site ha.
Cheers
Elliott said: "We haven't decided if Bless The Wings will have another shot at the race. He's also in the Randox Health Grand National but will need a few to drop out. We'll think about it between now and declaration time for the Irish National on Friday."
Gordon doesn't want to be under-represented in the Irish.....he's only got 37% of the field without him.
From what's been said @Covered End it's highly unlikely the owner's going to change his mind - whatever one thinks of JP McManus, he looks after his horses whether they're racing or retired.
This is what his racing manager said on Monday:
“The intention was to go to Liverpool but he won’t be going. He got jarred up (at Cheltenham). He’s not too bad but he won’t be right for this season,”
The Irish Times article which quoted him was titled: "Cause Of Causes ruled out for the season and misses Aintree National".
Today's Guardian:
Thinks BTW will run at Fairyhouse and speculates that at least down to #45 should get in at Aintree - that's Milansbar.
Final Nudge is #46.
Stats say he could run a massive race if there's proper cut. Not that it's a specifically relevant stat but he won the same race (Warwick National) that One For Arthur won last year of course. And a big plus to have Bryony on board again, as she was that day - looked a new horse with blinkers.
If it is proper GS or softer, I'm likely to have a slip with up to 6 runners all currently at 50/1 or bigger. He'd certainly be on it.
That was an apparently-modest but statistically-significant 5.5L 3rd on Sunday in the 3m veterans chase (tapped for toe but stayed on very gamely in first-time blinkers), which "activated" a number of positive stats for him in my model.
He had a sighter in the GN last year on unsuitably quick ground, staying on from the back to finish 10th (btw Mon Mome finished 10th in the GN before his win on rain-softened ground in 2009).
He's not the same horse that gave weight to but a close run behind Many Clouds and Coneygree (and ironically The Young Master) 3 seasons ago but off an 18lb lower mark and with just 10.06, he doesn't have to be.
What he does need to be is something like the horse that last season stayed on with 11.07 (OR153 compared to 144 on 14 April) to finish 3rd behind Native River on soft in the WN (Mon Mome had also been placed in the WN previously).
If he gets ground to suit on 14 April (proper GS or softer) that enables him to race handy, he (and we) could well be in the money.
Addendum. Meant to say, check out his close finish behind Regal Flow (giving him 20lbs) in January. Regal Flow's just won the Midlands Natiobal (with some ease) off a 9lb higher mark.
A Genie In Abottle now won't run at Fairyhouse but may go for the GN after all.
Not of interest to me if he does except that it means potentially one of the tasty long shots down the weights missing out.
So, A Genie In Abottle, Pleasant Company and Childrens List, who were thought likely to run at Fairyhouse will not do so and remain Aintree possibles.
Elliott has just 13 (a mere 43%) of the 30 runners on Monday. Unless he departs early on Monday, it's almost inconceivable that Bless The Wings will now ever line up for an Aintree GN - a great shame.
Assuming that, with Causes of Causes, these don’t line up at Aintree:
Vicente (probably headed to Ayr), Rathvinden (after Cheltenham stated likely to wait for 2019 GN), Bellshill and Bless The Wings, then these 4 would get in on 14 April:
All 3 on OR144 (Houblon Des Obeaux, Lord Windermere and Captain Redbeard) and Milansbar.
So, Final Nudge would need another 1 to come out and Walk In The Mill at least another 5 (assuming Thunder And Roses doesn't run in both GNs) or 6 if he loses out in a ballot with Vintage Clouds (tied on OR141).
Though large pinch of salt required, accuweather forecasting a very wet Easter weekend at Aintree and an unsettled week ahead (70mm of rainfall in total) but drier and somewhat sunnier during the week of the meeting (possible moderate rain on the Thursday). Obviously they won't be watering but important to note that Aintree has good drainage these days. It's signficant rainfall during the meeting itself that can cause it to get testing for the Big One.
If they call it Good to Soft, the important question for me is “what sort of GS?”.
Perhaps with “welfare-correctness” in mind, GS(Good places) seems to be the customary official description for a variety of ground for a GN meeting these days (it was the official going for 4 of the 5 GNs after 2012). Yet it can represent effectively Good ground (as in 2015 and 2017, when the Going Stick read 6.6 and both times were faster than standard) or it can represent proper Good to Soft (as in 2013, Going Stick 6.0, when the time was 15.2 seconds slower than the 2015 GN – that’s at least 60L difference between the 2 winners).
Those nuances may seem minor but they can matter a great deal, particularly to those horses with stamina to get the trip under any conditions but lacking the speed to stay handy and out of traffic-problems on Good ground. Though they’re far from infallible, I’ll be looking out keenly for the Going Stick readings in the run-up to the race.
Since October 2014, he has had 5 breaks of 60 days or more and on each occasion on his return either won or near-missed (<2L). The last of these was his win in the Festival XC and 31 days later he'll run in the GN.
However, here's his record in the subsequent race after the 4 previous breaks:
13 days later - PU
17 days later - 14th of 19 (37L)
34 days later - PU (Irish GN)
17 days later - PU
Hmm
Milansbar
I Just Know
The Dutchman
Irish GN this afternoon. Can't not have Bless The Wings at 25/1 e/w, despite it being 65 years since a 13 y-o won it and 21 years since one older than 10 did.
Barring misfortune, Mall Dini is my idea of the winner but at 9/1, for a dyed-in-the-wool e/w punter, that's too short for my liking with the hurly-burly of an Irish GN.
Will be typically attritional on the ground. Let's hope they all come back safe and sound.
Willie Mullins & Gordon Elliott - 51 runners
The other 37 trainers - 48 runners
And the Irish wonder why so many trainers are going to the wall.